nep-sea New Economics Papers
on South East Asia
Issue of 2005‒12‒20
four papers chosen by
Kavita Iyengar
Asian Development Bank

  1. China and the Relationship Between the Oil Price and the Dollar By Agnes Benassy-Quere; Valerie Mignon; Alexis Penot
  2. Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries: Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration By Robert Holzmann
  3. The Great Japanese Stagnation: Lessons for Industrial Countries By Michael M. Hutchison; Takatoshi Ito; Frank Westermann
  4. Trade Integration and Production Networks in Asia: The Role of China By Sven W. Arndt

  1. By: Agnes Benassy-Quere; Valerie Mignon; Alexis Penot
    Abstract: We study cointegration and causality between the real price of oil and the real price of the dollar over the 1974-2004 period. Our results suggest that a 10% rise in the oil price coincides with a 4.3% appreciation of the dollar in the long run, and that the causality runs from oil to the dollar. Through the development of a theoretical model, we then investigate possible reasons why this relationship could be reversed in the future due to the emergence of China as a major player on both the oil and the foreign exchange markets.
    Keywords: Oil price; real exchange rate; dollar; euro; China; cointegration; causality; error correction model; dollar; energy cost; models; foreign exchange markets
    JEL: C22 F31 Q43
    Date: 2005–10
  2. By: Robert Holzmann (World Bank and IZA Bonn)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected population aging and low or negative growth of the population and labor force in the North. Without further immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China, and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor forth in the North include moving the total fertility rate back to replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of the existing population through a variety of measures, and filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration. The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios may partially or even fully compensate for the projected labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate the required change.
    Keywords: demographic policy, aging, fertility rate, labor force, migration
    JEL: J11 I38 Q15
    Date: 2005–12
  3. By: Michael M. Hutchison (University of California, Santa Cruz); Takatoshi Ito (Tokyo University); Frank Westermann (University of Munich)
    Date: 2005–12
  4. By: Sven W. Arndt (Lowe Institute of Political Economy, Claremont McKenna College)
    Abstract: This paper examines the implications of cross-border component sourcing and production networks for trade competitiveness and welfare. Offshore sourcing of components in which it has comparative disadvantage, enables a country to enhance its comparative advantage in the final product. This option provides emerging countries with an important alternative to capital accumulation and technical change as paths to economic development. In addition, production sharing changes the nature of trade-balance accounting and tends to reduce the sensitivity of trade flows to movements in exchange rates. This has important implications for trade policy and for the choice of exchange-rate regime. In the context of regional trade areas, for example, deeper integration allowing for production sharing has welfare effects superior to those of standard preferential trade liberalization.
    Keywords: cross-border sourcing, trade integration, production sharing, exchange rate elasticities
    JEL: F11 F15 F32
    Date: 2004

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