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on South East Asia |
| By: | Hans Fehr; Sabine Jokisch; Laurence J. Kotlikoff |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic, life-cycle, general equilibrium model to study the interdependent demographic, fiscal, and economic transition paths of China, Japan, the U.S., and the EU. Each of these countries/regions is entering a period of rapid and significant aging requiring major fiscal adjustments. In previous studies that excluded China we predicted that tax hikes needed to pay benefits along the developed world's demographic transition would lead to capital shortage, reducing real wages per unit of human capital. Adding China to the model dramatically alters this prediction. Even though China is aging rapidly, its saving behavior, growth rate, and fiscal policies are very different from those of developed countries. If this continues to be the case, the model's long run looks much brighter. China eventually becomes the world's saver and, thereby, the developed world's savoir with respect to its long-run supply of capital and long-run general equilibrium prospects. And, rather than seeing the real wage per unit of human capital fall, the West and Japan see it rise by one fifth by 2030 and by three fifths by 2100. These wage increases are over and above those associated with technical progress. |
| JEL: | E2 E4 H2 H3 H5 H6 J1 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11668&r=sea |
| By: | Viv B. Hall |
| Abstract: | Arguments for and against abandoning independent national currencies and monetary policies have varied considerably over time and by country. For New Zealand, it can be argued that a key driving force behind recent debates has been the conduct of monetary policy and the need for improved overall economic performance in the longer term, rather than major dissatisfaction with its floating exchange rate system. In that context, this paper initially considers some issues considered important by other countries, and factors specific to New Zealand. It then utilises deterministic and stochastic simulation results from the RBNZ's core FPS model, to illustrate what New Zealand's inflation, output and trade outcomes might have been, had it faced US or Australian interest rate and exchange rate movements of the 1990s. The paper concludes with some implications for future research, and some ways forward for New Zealand policy. |
| JEL: | E58 F36 E31 E37 E17 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:camaaa:2005-21&r=sea |
| By: | Kiyoshi Urakami (Urakami Asia Management Research) |
| Abstract: | Electronics products originating either from the U.S.A. or Europe have experienced tremendous shifts to the Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China. This paper examines the recent development of Chinafs electronics industry where a significant degree of foreign direct investment has enhanced the industrial accumulation. Based on the survey on the IT industry (personal computer, mobile phone and semiconductor) in China, business status in both Chinese and Japanese companies will be analyzed and future strategic directions for Japanese firms in the gAsian Ageh will be discussed. |
| Keywords: | the gAsian Ageh, originated from the U.S.A., business models, gMao, Gong, Jih method, the Asian talents, multilateral collaboration |
| JEL: | F1 F2 |
| Date: | 2005–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0509012&r=sea |