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on South East Asia |
| By: | Beaudry, Paul; Portier, Franck |
| Abstract: | This paper uses aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data to explore the properties of the joint behaviour of stock prices and total factor productivity (TFP) with the aim of highlighting data patterns that are useful for evaluating business cycle theories. The approach used follows that presented in Beaudry and Portier (2004b). The main findings are that (i) in both Japan and the US, innovations in stock prices that are contemporaneously orthogonal to TFP precede most of the long run movements in total factor productivity, and (ii) such stock prices innovations do not affect US sectoral TFPs contemporaneously, but do precede TFP increases in those sectors that are driving US TFP growth, namely durable goods, and among them equipment sectors. |
| Keywords: | business cycle; productivity shocks; stock prices |
| JEL: | E3 |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5176&r=sea |
| By: | Zhu, Z.; Krug, B. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University) |
| Abstract: | To address the problem why China, as a communist country, moves in the opposite direction when the public sector has undergoing a continuous growth in most Western economies since the World War I, we offer a new approach that the de facto fiscal decentralization curtails government size in transition China according to Leviathan theory. Meanwhile, by combining time series and cross-section regression analysis and various variables used by previous empirical studies, this paper tests the Leviathan hypothesis for vertical decentralization, horizontal fragmentation and intergovernmental collusion at national and provincial level, respectively, based on the new data set of China. Our empirical results not only explain Chinese shrinking government size, but also lend support to Leviathan hypothesis, especially, under the condition of absence of traditional democratic electoral constraint. |
| Keywords: | Leviathan;Fiscal decentralization;China;Transition Economy; |
| Date: | 2005–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:eureri:30002122&r=sea |
| By: | Jong, A. de; Roosenboom, P.; Schramade, W. (Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), RSM Erasmus University) |
| Abstract: | We examine fees on bonds issued by Japanese corporations during the 1994-2002 period. We relate fees to firms’ membership of bank-led (financial) keiretsu. For the full sample of firms, we establish a positive relation between fees and risk factors. Over time, we find that fees have increased for those firms that are related to financial keiretsu, even after controlling for risk factors. But during the same period, fees have fallen for firms not belonging to keiretsu. It seems that, against the background of bond market deregulation and weaker banks, keiretsu membership has become a burden rather than an advantage. |
| Keywords: | Fees;Bonds;Keiretsu;Corporate Groups;Banks; |
| Date: | 2005–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:eureri:30007069&r=sea |
| By: | Sjöholm, Fredrik (European Institute of Japanese Studies); Sjöberg, Örjan (European Institute of Japanese Studies) |
| Abstract: | Cambodia is facing the familiar problem of achieving sustained rates of economic growth that could help it alleviate widespread poverty. Against the background of some encouraging developments, and quite a few that are not equally reassuring, we argue that any push for development needs to consider both agriculture and industry. This is so as both labour absorption, primarily in secondary sector activities, and productivity growth in agriculture are necessary to lift large segments of the population out of the poverty associated with subsistence agriculture, landlessness and informal sector activities. Given that the major success story of the past decade, the garments and textile industry, is under threat, we conclude that Cambodia is yet to achieve an economic take off. |
| Keywords: | Cambodia; economic development; agriculture; industry |
| JEL: | O13 O14 O53 |
| Date: | 2005–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:eijswp:0209&r=sea |
| By: | Söderberg, Marie (European Institute of Japanese Studies) |
| Abstract: | Peace building and peace preservation are new key concepts in Japanese foreign aid policy. According to the revision of the ODA charter in 2003, the objective of Japan’s foreign aid is to contribute to the peace and development of the international community, and thereby to help ensure Japan’s own security and prosperity--“Japan aspires for world peace. Actively promoting the aforementioned effort with ODA” that Japan will carry out “even more strategically” in the future. Asia and especially East Asia is pointed out as a priority region. North Korea, with whom Japan has not yet normalised its relations, is one of Japan’s closest neighbours and would, from a logical point of view, then seem like an important starting point. However, when main Japanese aid agencies such as JICA (Japan International Co-operation Agency) and JBIC (Japan Bank of International Co-operation) are asked, no one works officially with aid to North Korea. The standard answer is that there is no aid to that country, besides some smaller amounts of Japanese humanitarian aid that are channelled through multilateral organisations. If Japan regards aid as one of its main tools for creating peace, why isn’t aid provided to North Korea? Aid is a very complex issue and not giving is often regarded as effective as giving, when it comes to getting concessions and changes in the recipients’ policy behaviour. It is used both as a carrot and a stick. Aid is always envisioned as something quite plausible, if North Korean policy behaviour is changed for the better according to Japanese judgement (so called positive aid sanction); but aid is never paid out and remains an illusion as long as it does not change (negative sanction). But the question for Japan is more complex than this. There are various domestic opinions and interest groups that have to be taken into consideration. The kidnapping issue (Japanese citizens kidnapped by North Korea in the 1970s) has lead to a considerable amount of anti-North Korean sentiment that makes it difficult for the Japanese government to disperse aid to North Korea. There is also foreign pressure at work; the US, Japan’s military ally, and other western countries as well have imposed economic sanctions on North Korea due to its withdrawal from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. This also affects the Japanese position on the aid question. Keeping all these factors in mind, this paper questions if Japanese foreign aid is an effective tool to influence North Korean policy behaviour. Has it ever led to a change of behaviour? Has it contributed to peace and stability in the area in any way? |
| Keywords: | Japanese politics; Japan-North Korea; Japanese ODA policy |
| JEL: | H56 O20 R58 |
| Date: | 2005–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:eijswp:0210&r=sea |
| By: | Söderberg, Marie (European Institute of Japanese Studies) |
| Abstract: | At the moment, very substantial reforms in the field of security are being undertaken in Japan. “The New National Defence Program Guidelines for 2005 and After”, as well as the “Midterm Defence Program Fiscal Year 2005-2009” both talk about a thorough restructuring of the Self Defence Forces to make them able to respond effectively to new threats, such as terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, as well as provide a more proactive Japanese policy with various initiatives to improve the international security environment. There is a definite strengthening of the Japanese-US security relation, where Japan is being asked to and is willing to take a bigger role. The declaration by North Korea that they now possess nuclear weapons is considered an imminent threat to Japan. This, in connection with the abduction issue (see below) is played up in Japanese mass media and is being used by certain groups to create changes in Japan’s defence posture. These are changes that the Japanese consider necessary to counter the larger threat in the long term, the rise of China. This paper will start with a short historic overview of the Japanese defence posture since World War II and give a short presentation of the kinds of threats Japan feels it is facing since September 11, 2001, and in the future. Then we will continue with Japanese-North Korean relations, and Japanese-Chinese relations. The recent strengthening of the Japanese-US security cooperation, and its implications for Japanese defence posture, as well as regional cooperation, will be covered. We will conclude with what these changes imply for Europe, as well as the role Europe could play in securing peace and stability in Asia. |
| Keywords: | Security policy; Foreign policy; Japan; Japan-North Korea; Japan-China; Japan-Europe |
| JEL: | H56 H70 H77 N15 |
| Date: | 2005–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:eijswp:0211&r=sea |
| By: | Lundahl, Mats (European Institute of Japanese Studies); Sjöholm, Fredrik (European Institute of Japanese Studies) |
| Abstract: | Timor-Leste is among the world’s poorest countries and poverty reduction is high on the country’s policy agenda. The National Development Plan emphasizes a poverty reduction strategy based on economic growth and a focus on improvements in the health and education sector. This paper describes and analyses poverty and development in Timor-Leste. We find that progress has taken place but the situation remains troublesome with high poverty, low levels of education and large remaining problems in the health sector. Hence, further efforts are needed to improve upon the situation. Economic growth is fragile and too low to generate the necessary resources for such policies. However, unexpected oil revenues seem to be invested wisely and might provide the required means for sustainable poverty alleviation |
| Keywords: | Timor-Leste; Economic Development; Poverty; Education; Health |
| JEL: | I18 I28 I31 |
| Date: | 2005–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:eijswp:0213&r=sea |
| By: | Barry Eichengreen; Mariko Hatase |
| Abstract: | We explore the parallels between Japanese currency policy after World War II and Chinese currency policy today. After two decades of pegging at 360 yen, Japan decoupled from the dollar on August 1971 and then repegged at a revalued rate of 308 yen. After stabilizing the exchange rate at this new level for about a year, greater flexibility was introduced. This phased adjustment - revaluation followed after a time by an increase in flexibility - bears more than a passing resemblance to recent Chinese policy initiatives. We analyze the impact of Japan's exit from its peg on exports and investment. The results point to sizeable effects of the yen's revaluation on both variables, especially investment. While our analysis suggests that a rapidly-growing, export-oriented economy can operate a heavily managed float despite the presence of capital controls and the absence of sophisticated foreign currency forward markets, it underscores the importance of managing the exchange rate with domestic conditions in mind and avoiding the kind of large real appreciation that would sharply compress profits and damage investment. For China this suggests starting with a modest band widening and a limited increase in flexibility, and not with a large step revaluation which could have a sharp negative impact on investment and growth. Our results thus provide support for the kind of measures taken at the end of July. |
| JEL: | F31 F33 N15 N65 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11625&r=sea |
| By: | Patrick Paul Walsh; Peter McGoldrick (Department of Economics, Trinity College) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the productivity dynamics of 680 industrial Chinese State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) between 1980 and 1994. During this time managerial autonomy over factor markets was introduced. The timing of autonomy varied across SOEs and take-up was an endogenous process: high-productivity SOEs where more likely to take managerial control. We allow for this by adapting an algorithm developed in Olley & Pakes (1996) in order to generate estimates of productivity dynamics that deal with both simultaneity and endogenous selection biases. Apart from offering a methodology to estimate productivity dynamics during endogenous institutional change, we demonstrate that SOEs in China obtained productivity gains from managerial autonomy over factor markets in the years before privatisation. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:2000514&r=sea |
| By: | Patrick Paul Walsh; Peter McGoldrick (Department of Economics, Trinity College) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the productivity dynamics of 680 industrial Chinese State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) between 1980 and 1994. During this time managerial autonomy over factor markets was introduced. The timing of autonomy varied across SOEs and take-up was an endogenous process: high-productivity SOEs where more likely to take managerial control. We allow for this by adapting an algorithm developed in Olley & Pakes (1996) in order to generate estimates of productivity dynamics that deal with both simultaneity and endogenous selection biases. Apart from offering a methodology to estimate productivity dynamics during endogenous institutional change, we demonstrate that SOEs in China obtained productivity gains from managerial autonomy over factor markets in the years before privatisation. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:wpaper:tep14&r=sea |