nep-rmg New Economics Papers
on Risk Management
Issue of 2018‒01‒08
seventeen papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. Stock market as temporal network By Longfeng Zhao; Gang-Jin Wang; Mingang Wang; Weiqi Bao; Wei Li; H. Eugene Stanley
  2. MULTIVARIATE EXTENSIONS OF EXPECTILES RISK MEASURES By Véronique Maume-Deschamps; Didier Rullière; Khalil Said
  3. Syndicated loans and CDS positioning By Iñaki Aldasoro; Andreas Barth
  4. Systemic risk and systemic importance measures during the crisis By Sergio Masciantonio; Andrea Zaghini
  5. Credit Risk Transfer and Bank Insolvency Risk By Maarten van Oordt
  6. Basel III and Bank-Lending: Evidence from the United States and Europe By Sami Ben Naceur; Caroline Roulet
  7. A stress test framework for the German residential mortgage market: Methodology and application By Siemsen, Thomas; Vilsmeier, Johannes
  8. Approximation methods for piecewise deterministic Markov processes and their costs By Peter Kritzer; Gunther Leobacher; Michaela Sz\"olgyenyi; Stefan Thonhauser
  9. Why do banks bear interest rate risk? By Memmel, Christoph
  10. Estimating the Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude Using Extreme Value Methodology : the Groningen Case By Beirlant, J.; Kijko, Andrzej; Reykens, Tom; Einmahl, John
  11. Variance Premium, Downside Risk and Expected Stock Returns By Bruno Feunou; Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin; Roméo Tedongap; Lai Xi
  12. Banks’ maturity transformation: risk, reward, and policy By Pierluigi Bologna
  13. Risk Sensitive Portfolio Optimization with Regime-Switching By Lijun Bo; Huafu Liao; Xiang Yu
  14. First-Order Asymptotics of Path-Dependent Derivatives in Multiscale Stochastic Volatility Environment By Yuri F. Saporito
  15. Social aspirations in European banks: peer-influenced risk behavior By Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš; Baumöhl, Eduard
  16. A Simple Model for Now-Casting Volatility Series By BREITUNG, Jörg; HAFNER, Christian M.
  17. Limits to Human Life Span Through Extreme Value Theory By Einmahl, Jesson; Einmahl, John; de Haan, L.F.M.

  1. By: Longfeng Zhao; Gang-Jin Wang; Mingang Wang; Weiqi Bao; Wei Li; H. Eugene Stanley
    Abstract: Financial networks have become extremely useful in characterizing the structure of complex financial systems. Meanwhile, the time evolution property of the stock markets can be described by temporal networks. We utilize the temporal network framework to characterize the time-evolving correlation-based networks of stock markets. The market instability can be detected by the evolution of the topology structure of the financial networks. We employ the temporal centrality as a portfolio selection tool. Those portfolios, which are composed of peripheral stocks with low temporal centrality scores, have consistently better performance under different portfolio optimization schemes, suggesting that the temporal centrality measure can be used as new portfolio optimization and risk management tools. Our results reveal the importance of the temporal attributes of the stock markets, which should be taken serious consideration in real life applications.
    Date: 2017–12
  2. By: Véronique Maume-Deschamps (ICJ - Institut Camille Jordan [Villeurbanne] - ECL - École Centrale de Lyon - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Didier Rullière (ISFA - Institut des Science Financière et d'Assurances - Université de Lyon); Khalil Said (ICJ - Institut Camille Jordan [Villeurbanne] - ECL - École Centrale de Lyon - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - INSA Lyon - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper is devoted to the introduction and study of a new family of multivariate elicitable risk measures. We call the obtained vector-valued measures multivariate expectiles. We present the different approaches used to construct our measures. We discuss the coherence properties of these multivariate expectiles. Furthermore, we propose a stochastic approximation tool of these risk measures.
    Keywords: Multivariate risk measures, Elicitability, Multivariate expectiles, Copulas, Stochastic approximation, Coherence properties, Solvency 2, Risk management, Risk theory, Dependence modeling, Capital allocation
    Date: 2017
  3. By: Iñaki Aldasoro; Andreas Barth
    Abstract: This paper analyzes banks' usage of CDS. Combining bank-firm syndicated loan data with a unique EU-wide dataset on bilateral CDS positions, we find that stronger banks in terms of capital, funding and profitability tend to hedge more. We find no evidence of banks using the CDS market for capital relief. Banks are more likely to hedge exposures to relatively riskier borrowers and less likely to sell CDS protection on domestic firms. Lead arrangers tend to buy more protection, potentially exacerbating asymmetric information problems. Dealer banks seem insensitive to firm risk, and hedge more than non-dealers when they are more profitable. These results allow for a better understanding of banks' credit risk management.
    Keywords: syndicated loans, CDS, speculation, capital regulation, EMIR, cross-border lending, asymmetric information
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2017–12
  4. By: Sergio Masciantonio (European Commission); Andrea Zaghini (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: Systemic risk and systemic importance are two different concepts that came out of the crisis and are now widely employed to assess the potential impact on the banking system as a whole of shocks that hit one specific bank. However, those two measures are often improperly used and misunderstandings arise. This paper sheds light about their meaning, measurement and information content. Empirically, the two measures provide different information; it is therefore worthwhile investigating both, so to have a thorough understanding of single name and aggregate systemic risk exposure. In addition, by relying on the standard risk management perspective, we propose how to integrate systemic importance and systemic risk concepts. We provide two new measures of systemic risk exposure and compare them with the standard one (SRISK).
    Keywords: G-SIFIs, Systemic risk, too-big-to-fail, financial crisis
    JEL: G21 G01 G18
    Date: 2017–12
  5. By: Maarten van Oordt
    Abstract: The present paper shows that, everything else equal, some transactions to transfer portfolio credit risk to third-party investors increase the insolvency risk of banks. This is particularly likely if a bank sells the senior tranche and retains a sufficiently large first-loss position. The results do not rely on banks increasing leverage after the risk transfer, nor on banks taking on new risks, although these could aggravate the effect. High leverage and concentrated business models increase the vulnerability to the mechanism. These results are useful for risk managers and banking regulation. The literature on credit risk transfers and information asymmetries generally tends to advocate the retention of ‘information-sensitive’ first-loss positions. The present study shows that, under certain conditions, such an approach may harm financial stability, and thus calls for further reflection on the structure of securitization transactions and portfolio insurance.
    Keywords: Credit risk management, Financial Institutions, Financial stability
    JEL: G21 G28 G32
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Sami Ben Naceur; Caroline Roulet
    Abstract: Using data on commercial banks in the United States and Europe, this paper analyses the impact of the new Basel III capital and liquidity regulation on bank-lending following the 2008 financial crisis. We find that U.S. banks reinforce their risk absorption capacities when expanding their credit activities. Capital ratios have significant, negative impacts on bank-retail-and-other-lending-growth for large European banks in the context of deleveraging and the “credit crunch” in Europe over the post-2008 financial crisis period. Additionally, liquidity indicators have positive but perverse effects on bank-lending-growth, which supports the need to consider heterogeneous banks’ characteristics and behaviors when implementing new regulatory policies.
    Date: 2017–11–15
  7. By: Siemsen, Thomas; Vilsmeier, Johannes
    Abstract: This paper exploits a recent and granular data set for 1,500 German LSIs to conduct a residential mortgage stress testing exercise. To account for model uncertainty when modeling PD dynamics we use a benchmark-constrained Bayesian model averaging approach that combines standard BMA with a benchmark derived from a quantile mapping between the historical PD distribution and the historical distribution of macro variables. To link LGD to current LTV we derive a reduced-form meta-dependency. In the baseline model, we quantify expected as well as unexpected losses. We show that German LSIs, though being mostly sufficiently capitalized, are susceptible to a corrective movement in house prices with a median CET1 ratio reduction of 1.5pp in the severely adverse scenario. We quantify the impact of RWA modeling on stress test results and show that the Standardized Approach leads to an up to 33% lower stress impact relative to the more risk-sensitive "pseudo-IRB" approach.
    Keywords: stress test,Bayesian model averaging,quantile mapping,survey data,German residential mortgage market,model uncertainty
    JEL: C11 C52 G21
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Peter Kritzer; Gunther Leobacher; Michaela Sz\"olgyenyi; Stefan Thonhauser
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyse piecewise deterministic Markov processes, as introduced in Davis (1984). Many models in insurance mathematics can be formulated in terms of the general concept of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. In this context, one is interested in computing certain quantities of interest such as the probability of ruin of an insurance company, or the insurance company's value, defined as the expected discounted future dividend payments until the time of ruin. Instead of explicitly solving the integro-(partial) differential equation related to the quantity of interest considered (an approach which can only be used in few special cases), we adapt the problem in a manner that allows us to apply deterministic numerical integration algorithms such as quasi-Monte Carlo rules; this is in contrast to applying random integration algorithms such as Monte Carlo. To this end, we reformulate a general cost functional as a fixed point of a particular integral operator, which allows for iterative approximation of the functional. Furthermore, we introduce a smoothing technique which is applied to the integrands involved, in order to use error bounds for deterministic cubature rules. On the analytical side, we prove a convergence result for our PDMP approximation, which is of independent interest as it justifies phase-type approximations on the process level. We illustrate the smoothing technique for a risk-theoretic example, and provide a comparative study of deterministic and Monte Carlo integration.
    Date: 2017–12
  9. By: Memmel, Christoph
    Abstract: This paper investigates determinants of banks' structural exposure to interest rate risk in their banking book. Using bank-level data for German banks, we find evidence that a bank's exposure to interest rate risk depends on its presumed optimization horizon. The longer the presumed optimization horizon is, the more the bank is exposed to interest rate risk in its banking book. Moreover, there is evidence that banks hedge their earnings risk resulting from falling interest levels with exposure to interest rate risk. The more a bank is exposed to the risk of a decline in the interest rate level, the higher its exposure to interest rate risk.
    Keywords: interest rate risk,banks' business model,hedging
    JEL: G21
    Date: 2017
  10. By: Beirlant, J.; Kijko, Andrzej; Reykens, Tom; Einmahl, John (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)
    Abstract: The area-characteristic, maximum possible earthquake magnitude TM is required by the earthquake engineering community, disaster management agencies and the insurance industry. The Gutenberg-Richter law predicts that earthquake magnitudes M follow a truncated exponential distribution. In the geophysical literature several estimation procedures were proposed, see for instance Kijko and Singh (Acta Geophys., 2011) and the references therein. Estimation of TM is of course an extreme value problem to which the classical methods for endpoint estimation could be applied. We argue that recent methods on truncated tails at high levels (Beirlant et al., Extremes, 2016; Electron. J. Stat., 2017) constitute a more appropriate setting for this estimation problem. We present upper confidence bounds to quantify uncertainty of the point estimates. We also compare methods from the extreme value and geophysical literature through simulations. Finally, the different methods are applied to the magnitude data for the earthquakes induced by gas extraction in the Groningen province of the Netherlands.
    Keywords: Anthropogenic seismicity; endpoint estimation; Extreme value theory; truncation
    JEL: C13 C14
    Date: 2017
  11. By: Bruno Feunou; Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin; Roméo Tedongap; Lai Xi
    Abstract: We decompose total variance into its bad and good components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations using stock and option data from a large cross-section of firms. The total variance risk premium (VRP) represents the premium paid to insure against fluctuations in bad variance (called bad VRP), net of the premium received to compensate for fluctuations in good variance (called good VRP). Bad VRP provides a direct assessment of the degree to which asset downside risk may become extreme, while good VRP proxies for the degree to which asset upside potential may shrink. We find that bad VRP is important economically; in the cross-section, a one-standard-deviation increase is associated with an increase of up to 13% in annualized expected excess returns. Simultaneously going long on stocks with high bad VRP and short on stocks with low bad VRP yields an annualized risk-adjusted expected excess return of 18%. This result remains significant in double-sort strategies and cross-sectional regressions controlling for a host of firm characteristics and exposures to regular and downside risk factors.
    Keywords: Asset Pricing, Financial markets
    JEL: G12
    Date: 2017
  12. By: Pierluigi Bologna (Banca d'Italia)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is twofold: first, to study the determinants of banks’ net interest margin with a particular focus on the role of maturity transformation, using a new measure of maturity mismatch; second, to analyse the implications for banks of the relaxation of a binding prudential limit on maturity mismatch, in place in Italy until the mid-2000s. The results show that maturity transformation is an important driver of the net interest margin, as higher maturity transformation is typically associated with higher net interest margin. However, there is a limit to this positive relationship as ‘excessive’ maturity transformation — even without leading to systemic vulnerabilities — has some undesirable implications in terms of higher exposure to interest rate risk and lower net interest margin.
    Keywords: banks, profitability, maturity transformation, interest rates, macroprudential, microprudential
    JEL: E43 G21 G28
    Date: 2017–12
  13. By: Lijun Bo; Huafu Liao; Xiang Yu
    Abstract: We study a risk sensitive portfolio optimization problem in a regime-switching credit market with default contagion. The state space of the Markovian regime-switching process is assumed to be a countably infinite set. To characterize the value function of the risk sensitive stochastic control problem, we investigate the corresponding recursive infinite-dimensional nonlinear dynamical programming equations (DPEs) based on default states. We propose to work in the following procedure: Applying the theory of the monotone dynamical system, we first establish the existence and uniqueness of classical solutions to the recursive DPEs by a truncation argument in the finite state space. Moreover, the associated optimal feedback strategy is characterized by developing a rigorous verification theorem. Building upon results in the first stage, we construct a sequence of approximating risk sensitive control problems with finite state space and prove that the resulting smooth value functions will converge to the classical solution of the original system of DPEs. The construction and approximation of the optimal feedback strategy for the original problem are also thoroughly discussed using verification arguments.
    Date: 2017–12
  14. By: Yuri F. Saporito
    Abstract: In this paper, we extend the first-order asymptotics analysis of Fouque et al. to general path-dependent financial derivatives using Dupire's functional Ito calculus. The main conclusion is that the market group parameters calibrated to vanilla options can be used to price to the same order exotic, path-dependent derivatives as well. Under general conditions, the first-order condition is represented by a conditional expectation that could be numerically evaluated. Moreover, if the path-dependence is not too severe, we are able to find path-dependent closed-form solutions equivalent to the fist-order approximation of path-independent options derived in Fouque et al. Additionally, we exemplify the results with Asian options and options on quadratic variation.
    Date: 2017–12
  15. By: Lyócsa, Štefan; Výrost, Tomáš; Baumöhl, Eduard
    Abstract: We test a sample of 3,586 banks from 33 European countries to determine whether performances above or below a social aspiration level (median performance of peer banks) influence banks’ aggregate risk levels. Our results are consistent with the behavioral theory of the firm and prospect theory in that we find that bank performance below a bank’s social aspiration level is followed by increased aggregate risk, i.e., risk-taking behavior in the subsequent year. Although under-performing banks tend to be risk-takers, large banks and banks with high aggregate risk levels tend to limit the increase in their aggregate risk levels.
    Keywords: social aspiration,European banks,performance,risk behavior,prospect theory
    JEL: D22 G2 L22 L25
    Date: 2018
  16. By: BREITUNG, Jörg (University of Cologne); HAFNER, Christian M. (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: Popular volatility models focus on the conditional variance given past observations, whereas the (arguably most important) information in the current observation is ignored. This paper proposes a simple model for now-casting volatilities based on a specific ARMA representation of the log-transformed squared returns that allows us to estimate current volatility as a function of current and past returns. The model can be viewed as a stochastic volatility model with perfect correlation between the two error terms. It is shown that the volatility nowcasts are invariant to this correlation and therefore the estimated volatilities coincide. An extension of our now-casting model is proposed that takes into account the so-called leverage effect. The alternative models are applied to estimate daily return volatilities from the S&P 500 stock price index.
    Keywords: EGARCH, stochastic volatility, ARMA, realized volatility, leverage
    JEL: C22 C58
    Date: 2016–10–01
  17. By: Einmahl, Jesson; Einmahl, John (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); de Haan, L.F.M. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)
    Abstract: There is no scientific consensus on the fundamental question whether the probability distribution of the human life span has a finite endpoint or not and, if so, whether this upper limit changes over time. Our study uses a unique dataset of the ages at death - in days - of all (about 285,000) Dutch residents, born in the Netherlands, who died in the years 1986-2015 at a minimum age of 92 years and is based on extreme value theory, the coherent approach to research problems of this type. Unlike some other studies we base our analysis on the conguration of thousands of mortality data of old people, not just the few oldest old. We find compelling statistical evidence that there is indeed an upper limit to the life span of men and to that of women for all the 30 years we consider and, moreover, that there are no indications of trends in these upper limits over the last 30 years, despite the fact that the number of people reaching high age (say 95 years) was almost tripling. We also present estimates for the endpoints, for the force of mortality at very high age, and for the so-called perseverance parameter.
    Keywords: aging; endpoint; extreme value indez; oldest; statistics of extremes
    JEL: C12 C13 C14
    Date: 2017

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