New Economics Papers
on Risk Management
Issue of 2014‒03‒01
fifteen papers chosen by

  1. Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems By Konstantinos Spiliopoulos
  2. Computing the distribution of the sum of dependent random variables via overlapping hypercubes. By Marcello Galeotti
  3. Densely Entangled Financial Systems By Bhaskar DasGupta; Lakshmi Kaligounder
  4. Estimation Error of Expected Shortfall By Imre Kondor
  5. Mapping systemic risk: critical degree and failures distribution in financial networks By Matteo Smerlak; Brady Stoll; Agam Gupta; James S. Magdanz
  6. Disclosure, ownership structure and bank risk: Evidence from Asia By Bowo Setiyono; Amine Tarazi
  7. Large deviation asymptotics for the left tail of the sum of dependent positive random variables By Peter Tankov
  8. Risk Management and the Stated Capital Costs by Independent Power Producers By Bahman Kashi
  10. Falling short of expectations? Stress-testing the European banking system By Acharya, Viral V.; Steffen, Sascha
  11. Liquidity Risk and the Dynamics of Arbitrage Capital By Péter Kondor; Dimitri Vayanos
  12. Investment under Threat of Disaster By Thomas Gries; Natasa Bilkic
  13. Willingness-to-pay for road safety improvement By Mohamed Mouloud Haddak; Nathalie Havet; Marie Lefèvre
  14. Anatomy of grand corruption: A composite corruption risk index based on objective data By Mihaly Fazekas; Istvan Janos Toth; Lawrence Peter King
  15. Firm-level impacts of natural disasters on production networks : evidence from a flood in Thailand By Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Matsuura, Toshiyuki; Okubo, Fumihiro

  1. By: Konstantinos Spiliopoulos
    Abstract: As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.
    Date: 2014–02
  2. By: Marcello Galeotti (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica e Applicazioni, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze)
    Abstract: The original motivation of this work comes from a classic problem in finance and insurance: that of computing the value-at-risk (VaR) of a portfolio of dependent risky positions, i.e. the quantile at a certain level of confidence of the loss distribution. In fact, it is difficult to overestimate the importance of the concept of VaR in modernfinance and insurance: it has been recommended, although with several warnings, as a measure of risk and the basis for capital requirement determination both by the guidelines of international committees (such as Basel 2 and 3, Solvency 2 etc.) and the internal models adopted by major banks and insurance companies. However the actual computation of the VaR of a portfolio constituted by several dependent risky assets is often a hard practical and theoretical task. To this purpose here we prove the convergence of a geometric algorithm (alternative to Monte Carlo and quasi Monte Carlo methods) for computing the value-at-risk of a portfolio of any dimension, i.e.the distribution of the sum of its components, which can exhibit any dependence structure. Moreover our result has a relevant measure-theoretical meaning. What we prove, in fact, is that the H-measure of a d-dimensional simplex (for any $d\ge 2$ and any absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure H) can be approximated by convergent algebraic sums of H-measures of hypercubes (obtained through a self-similar construction).
    Keywords: finance, applied probability, algorithm convergence, measure theory.
    JEL: C6
    Date: 2014–02
  3. By: Bhaskar DasGupta; Lakshmi Kaligounder
    Abstract: In [1] Zawadoski introduces a banking network model in which the asset and counter-party risks are treated separately and the banks hedge their assets risks by appropriate OTC contracts. In his model, each bank has only two counter-party neighbors, a bank fails due to the counter-party risk only if at least one of its two neighbors default, and such a counter-party risk is a low probability event. Informally, the author shows that the banks will hedge their asset risks by appropriate OTC contracts, and, though it may be socially optimal to insure against counter-party risk, in equilibrium banks will {\em not} choose to insure this low probability event. In this paper, we consider the above model for more general network topologies, namely when each node has exactly 2r counter-party neighbors for some integer r>0. We extend the analysis of [1] to show that as the number of counter-party neighbors increase the probability of counter-party risk also increases, and in particular the socially optimal solution becomes privately sustainable when each bank hedges its risk to at least n/2 banks, where n is the number of banks in the network, i.e., when 2r is at least n/2, banks not only hedge their asset risk but also hedge its counter-party risk.
    Date: 2014–02
  4. By: Imre Kondor
    Abstract: The problem of estimation error of Expected Shortfall is analyzed, with a view of its introduction as a global regulatory risk measure.
    Date: 2014–02
  5. By: Matteo Smerlak; Brady Stoll; Agam Gupta; James S. Magdanz
    Abstract: The recent financial crisis illustrated the need for a thorough, functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult, most recent studies of this problem have relied on numerical simulations. In this paper, we report analytical results in a network model of interbank lending based on directly relevant financial parameters such as interest rates and leverage ratios. Using a mean-field approach, we obtain a closed-form formula for the "critical degree", viz. the number of creditors per bank below which an individual shock can cascade throughout the network. We relate the failures distribution (probability that a single shock induces $F$ failures) to the degree distribution (probability that a bank has $k$ creditors), showing in particular that the former is fat-tailed whenever the latter is. Remarkably, our criterion for the onset of contagion turns out to be isomorphic to a simple rule for the evolution of cooperation on graphs and social networks, supporting recent calls for a methodological rapprochement between finance and ecology.
    Date: 2014–02
  6. By: Bowo Setiyono (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - Université de Limoges : EA1088 - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société); Amine Tarazi (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - Université de Limoges : EA1088 - Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of the interaction of disclosure and ownership structure on bank risk. Using a sample of 209 commercial banks from Asia during the 2004-2010 period, we find that disclosure is negatively associated with income volatility and that such an impact is stronger in the presence of block holders and institutional ownership and weaker with insider or government ownership. Our results also provide evidence that better disclosure ensures greater stability as measured by individual bank default risk. Furthermore, a deeper investigation shows that disclosure on income statement, loans, other earning assets, deposits, and memo lines plays a stronger role in limiting risk than disclosure on non-deposit liabilities.
    Keywords: Bank risk; disclosure index; bank ownership
    Date: 2014–02–13
  7. By: Peter Tankov
    Abstract: We study the left tail behavior of the logarithm of the distribution function of a sum of dependent positive random variables. Asymptotics are computed under the assumption that the marginal distribution functions decay slowly at zero, meaning that the their logarithms are slowly varying functions. This includes parametric families such as log-normal, gamma, Weibull and many distributions from the financial mathematics literature. We show that the logarithmic asymptotics of the sum in question depend on a characteristic of the copula of the random variables which we term weak lower tail dependence function, and which is computed explicitly for several families of copulas in this paper. In applications, our results may be used to quantify the diversification of long-only portfolios of financial assets with respect to extreme losses. As an illustration, we compute the left tail asymptotics for a portfolio of options in the multidimensional Black-Scholes model.
    Date: 2014–02
  8. By: Bahman Kashi (Eastern Mediterranean University, Cyprus and Queen's University, Canada)
    Abstract: In this article we argue that the conventional financing and contractual arrangements in private power generation projects encourage the independent power producers (IPPs) to overstate the capital cost as a risk-mitigation strategy. Since the markup is only added to the capital cost, and not to the operating costs, it promotes the use of cheaper and less efficient power plants. The distortion in the choice of technology results in economic losses over the life of the plants. The findings of this research have important policy implications that can assist regulatory bodies, governments, and international financing agencies to adopt a more informed approach to the integration of private investment into the electricity generation capacity of developing countries.
    Keywords: IPP, PPA, privatization, power generation, electricity, risk management
    JEL: L94 D61 L33 L20
    Date: 2014–03
  9. By: Jonathan M. Lee; Laura O. Taylor
    Abstract: Compensating wages for workplace fatality and accident risks are used to infer the value of a statistical life (VSL), which in turn is used to assess the benefits of human health and safety regulations. The estimation of these wage differentials, however, has been plagued by measurement error and omitted variables. This paper employs the first quasi-experimental design within a labor market setting to overcome such limitations in the ex-tant literature. Specifically, randomly assigned, exogenous federal safety inspections are used to instrument for plant-level risks and combined with confidential U.S. Census data on manufacturing employment to estimate the VSL using a difference-in-differences framework. The VSL is estimated to be between $2 and $4 million ($2011), suggesting prior studies may substantially overstate the value workers place on safety, and therefore, the benefits of health and safety regulations.
    Keywords: value of a statistical life, hedonic wage models, OSHA, quasi-experiment
    JEL: Q58 J17 I18
    Date: 2014–01
  10. By: Acharya, Viral V.; Steffen, Sascha
    Abstract: Before the ECB takes over responsibility for overseeing Europe’s largest banks, as foreseen in the establishment of a eurozone banking union, it plans to conduct an Asset Quality Review (AQR) throughout the coming year, which will identify the capital shortfalls of these banks. This study finds that a comprehensive and decisive AQR will most likely reveal a substantial lack of capital in many peripheral and core European banks. The authors provide estimates of the capital shortfalls of banks that will be stress-tested under the AQR using publicly available data and a series of shortfall measures. Their analysis identifies which banks will most likely need capital, where a public back stop is likely to be needed and, since many countries are already highly leveraged, where an EU-wide backstop might be necessary.
    Date: 2014–01
  11. By: Péter Kondor; Dimitri Vayanos
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic model of liquidity provision, in which hedgers can trade multiple risky assets with arbitrageurs. We compute the equilibrium in closed form when arbitrageurs' utility over consumption is logarithmic or risk-neutral with a non-negativity constraint. Liquidity is increasing in arbitrageur wealth, while asset volatilities, correlations, and expected returns are hump-shaped. Liquidity is a priced risk factor: assets that suffer the most when liquidity decreases, e.g., those with volatile cashflows or in high supply by hedgers, offer the highest expected returns. When hedging needs are strong, arbitrageurs can choose to provide less liquidity even though liquidity provision is more profitable.
    JEL: D53 G01 G11 G12
    Date: 2014–02
  12. By: Thomas Gries (University of Paderborn); Natasa Bilkic (University of Paderborn)
    Abstract: During the last 40 years the number and severity of economic, natural, and political disasters has significantly increased all over the world. Disasters are characterized by a highly uncertain frequency of occurrence and size of impact. Due to their relatively small probability, for a long time they were not regarded as an essential element of investment decisions. Although this has changed recently, especially in the context of specific applications in finance, a transfer to a general evaluation of disasters has not taken place yet. This paper shows how disastrous events of uncertain occurrence and uncertain size can be included in the most frequently used evaluation method, namely expected net present value (ENPV). We identify an Ito-Lévy Jump Diffusion process as an adequate stochastic process for this kind of phenomenon and determine how to account for such large uncertain events. We also illustrate that disregarding this phenomenon may easily lead to unprofitable investment behavior. Hence, disasters do have a huge impact on investment behavior and should be included into project evaluation.
    Keywords: disaster evaluation, large risk and uncertainty, non-marginal stochastic shocks, investment project evaluation
    JEL: D81 G11
    Date: 2014–02
  13. By: Mohamed Mouloud Haddak (IFSTTAR/UMRESTTE - Unité Mixte de Recherche Epidémiologique et de Surveillance Transport Travail Environnement - Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I - IFSTTAR); Nathalie Havet (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure (ENS) - Lyon - PRES Université de Lyon - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I); Marie Lefèvre (IFSTTAR/UMRESTTE - Unité Mixte de Recherche Epidémiologique et de Surveillance Transport Travail Environnement - Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I - IFSTTAR)
    Abstract: Few studies have explored, to date, the issue of the monetary valuation of non-fatal injuries caused by road traffic accidents. The present paper arises interest in this question and aims to estimate, by means of the contingent valuation, the willingness to pay (WTP) of French households to improve their road safety level and reduce their risk of non-fatal injuries following a road accident. More precisely, Logit and Tobit models will be estimated to identify the factors influencing the individual will to pay. The results highlight the significant and positive influence of the injury severity on the WTP of the participants. The direct or indirect experience of road traffic accidents seems to play an important role and positively influences the valuation of the non-fatal injuries.
    Keywords: Road safety; Willingness to pay; Contingent valuation; Value of risk reduction; serious injuries
    Date: 2014–02–20
  14. By: Mihaly Fazekas (University of Cambridge Faculty of Politics, Psychology, Sociology); Istvan Janos Toth (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Lawrence Peter King (Department of Sociology University of Cambridge)
    Abstract: Although both the academic and policy communities have attached great importance to measuring corruption, most of the currently available measures are biased and too broad to test theory or guide policy. This article proposes a new composite indicator of grand corruption based on a wide range of elementary indicators. These indicators are derived from a rich qualitative evidence on public procurement corruption and a statistical analysis of a public procurement data in Hungary. The composite indicator is constructed by linking public procurement process 'red flags' to restrictions of market access. This method utilizes administrative data that is available in practically every developed country and avoids the pitfalls both of perception based indicators and previous 'objective' measures of corruption. It creates an estimation of institutionalised grand corruption that is consistent over time and across countries. The composite indicator is validated using company profitability and political connections data.
    Keywords: public procurement, grand corruption, corruption technique, composite corruption risk index
    JEL: D72 D73 H57
    Date: 2014–01
  15. By: Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Matsuura, Toshiyuki; Okubo, Fumihiro
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the firm-level impacts of flooding in Thailand in 2011, specifically those on the procurement patterns at Japanese affiliates in Thailand. Our findings are as follow. First, the damaged small firms are more likely to lower their local procurement share, particularly the share of procurement from other Japanese-owned firms in Thailand. Second, damaged young firms and damaged old firms are more likely to raise the shares of imports from Japan and China, respectively. Third, there are no impacts on imports from ASEAN and other countries. These findings are useful for uncovering how multinational firms adjust their production networks before and after natural disasters.
    Keywords: Thailand, Japan, Foreign affiliated firm, International business enterprises, Industrial management, Risk management, Flood damage, Disasters, Natural disasters, Flooding, Production networks
    JEL: F23 D22
    Date: 2014–02

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