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on Risk Management |
| By: | Westerman, George |
| Abstract: | With information technology becoming an increasingly important part of every enterprise, managing IT risk has become critically important for CIOs and their business counterparts. However, the complexity of IT makes it very difficult to understand and make good decisions about IT risks. CISR research has identified four business risks - Availability, Access, Accuracy, and Agility - that are most affected by IT. Since nearly every major IT decision involves conscious or unconscious tradeoffs among the four IT risks, IT and business executives must understand and prioritize their enterprise's position on each. Three core disciplines - IT foundation, risk governance process, and risk aware culture - constitute an effective risk management capability. Enterprises that build the three core disciplines manage risk more effectively and their business executives have better understanding of their IT risk profile and risk tradeoffs. When done well, IT risk management matures from a set of difficult compliance and threat-reduction activities to become a true source of agility and business value. |
| Keywords: | IT related risk, IT governance, IT architecture, business agility, |
| Date: | 2007–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mit:sloanp:39809&r=rmg |
| By: | Miller, Roger; Lessard, Donald |
| Abstract: | Large engineering projects (LEPs) are high-stakes games characterized by substantial irreversible commitments, skewed reward structures when they are successful, and high probabilities of failure. Their dynamics also change over time. The journey from initial conception to ramp-up and revenue generation takes 10 years on average. While the €ܦront endÂ€Ý of a project Â€Ó project definition, concept selection, and planning Â€Ó typically involves less than one third of the total elapsed time and expense, it has a disproportionate impact on outcomes, as most shaping actions occur during this phase. During the rampup period, the reality of market estimates and the true worth of the project are revealed. Sponsors may find that actual conditions are very different from expectations, but only a few adaptations are possible. Once built, most projects have little flexibility in use beyond the original intended purpose. Managing risks is thus a real issue. The purpose of this chapter is to sketch out the various components of risk and outline ranges of strategies for coping with risks and turbulence based on an assessment of 60 projects as part of the IMEC study. Further more, we propose the elements of a governance system to master their evolutionary dynamics. The main finding is that successful projects are not selected but shaped. Rather than choosing a specific project concept from a number of alternatives at the outset based on projections of the full sets of benefits, costs and risks over the project€ٳ lifetime, successful sponsors start with project ideas that have the potential to become viable. These sponsors then embark on shaping efforts to influence risk drivers ranging from project-related issues to broader governance. The seeds of success or failure of individual projects are thus planted early and nurtured over the course of the shaping period as choices are made. Successful sponsors, however, do not escalate commitments, and they abandon quickly when they recognize that projects have little possibility of becoming viable. |
| Keywords: | Risk Management, Strategy, Engineering, |
| Date: | 2007–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mit:sloanp:37157&r=rmg |
| By: | Jose Eduardo Gómez; Paola Morales Acevedo; Fernando Pineda; Nancy Zamudio |
| Abstract: | Financial institutions use credit ratings to express their risk perception about their clients. Credit ratings feed their internal credit scoring models, allowing them to evaluate the current state of the quality of their balances and to calcu- late the reserves required to provision their loan portfolios. The information they provide constitutes therefore a useful tool for evaluating credit demands and for asigning the corresponding interest rates to approved credits. Moreover, within a credit risk administration system, it is crucial to be able to forecast the behavior of the clientsratings in the future and their possible changes of state. From this perspective, transition matrices constitute a fundamental tool for nancial institutions, because they measure migration probabilities among states. Transition probabilities are at the core of modern credit risk models and are a standard point for risk dynamics, therefore they must be estimated with rig- urous precision using the most proper techniques available. In many important economic applications (e.g. J.P. Morgans Credit Metrics), transition matrices are estimated under the Markovian assumption in a discrete- time setting using a cohort method. In a discrete and nite space setting, the probability of migrating from state i to state j is estimated by dividing the num- ber of observed migrations from i to j in a given time period by the total number of rms in state i at the beginning of the period. One implication of this cohort method is that if no rm migrates directly from state i to j during the observa- tion period, the estimate of the corresponding probability is zero. This is a not desirable feature, specially when dealing with the estimation of rare event proba- bilities which, in case of occurring, may have a deep impact. |
| Date: | 2007–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:004395&r=rmg |
| By: | Janet Mitchell (National Bank of Belgium, Financial Stability Department; CEPR); Patrick Van Roy (National Bank of Belgium, Financial Stability Department; Université Libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | We address a number of comparative issues relating to the performance of failure prediction models for small, private firms. We use two models provided by vendors, a model developed by the National Bank of Belgium, and the Altman Z-score model to investigate model power, the extent of disagreement between models in the ranking of firms, and the design of internal rating systems. We also examine the potential gains from combining the output of multiple models. We find that the power of all four models in predicting bankruptcies is very good at the one-year horizon, even though not all of the models were developed using bankruptcy data and the models use different statistical methodologies. Disagreements in firm rankings are nevertheless significant across models, and model choice will have an impact on loan pricing and origination decisions. We find that it is possible to realize important gains from combining models with similar power. In addition, we show that it can also be beneficial to combine a weaker model with a stronger one if disagreements across models with respect to failing firms are high enough. Finally, the number of classes in an internal rating system appears to be more important than the distribution of borrowers across classes |
| Keywords: | Basel II, failure prediction, internal ratings, model power, rating systems, ROC analysis. |
| JEL: | D40 G21 G24 G28 G33 |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200712-18&r=rmg |
| By: | Martin Cihák; Klaus Schaeck |
| Abstract: | The paper provides an empirical analysis of aggregate banking system ratios during systemic banking crises. Drawing upon a wide cross-country dataset, we utilize parametric and nonparametric tests to assess the power of these ratios to discriminate between sound and unsound banking systems. We also estimate a duration model to investigate whether the ratios help determine the timing of a banking crisis. Despite some weaknesses in the available data, our findings offer initial evidence that some indicators are precursors for the likelihood and timing of systemic banking problems. Nevertheless, we caution against sole reliance on these indicators and advocate supplementing them with other tools and techniques. |
| Keywords: | Banks , Financial crisis , Financial soundness indicators , Economic models , |
| Date: | 2007–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/275&r=rmg |
| By: | Ethan Cohen-Cole; Todd Prono |
| Abstract: | This paper will discuss a proposed method for the estimation of loss distribution using information from a combination of internally derived data and data from external sources. The relevant context for this analysis is the estimation of operational loss distributions used in the calculation of capital adequacy. We present a robust, easy-to-implement approach that draws on Bayesian inferential methods. The principal intuition behind the method is to let the data itself determine how they should be incorporated into the loss distribution. This approach avoids the pitfalls of managerial choice on data weighting and cut-off selection and allows for the estimation of a single loss distribution. |
| Keywords: | Risk |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbqu:qau07-8&r=rmg |
| By: | Satoshi Yamashita (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics (E-mail: yamasita@ism.ac.jp)); Toshinao Yoshiba (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: toshinao.yoshiba@boj.or.jp)) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate expected and unexpected losses of a bank loan, taking into account the bankfs strategic control of the expected return on the loan. Assuming that the bank supplies an additional loan to minimize the expected loss of the total loan, we provide analytical formulations for expected and unexpected losses with bivariate normal distribution functions.There are two cases in which an additional loan decreases the expected loss: i) the asset/liability ratio of the firm is low but its expected growth rate is high; ii) the asset/liability ratio of the firm is high and the lending interest rate is high. With a given expected growth rate and given interest rates, the two cases are identified by two thresholds for the current asset/liability ratio. The bank maintains the current loan amount when the asset/liability ratio is between the two thresholds. Given the bankfs strategy, the bank decreases the initial expected loss of the loan. On the other hand, the bank has a greater risk of the unexpected loss. |
| Keywords: | Probability of default (PD), Loss given default (LGD), Exposure at default (EaD), Expected loss (EL), Unexpected loss (UL), Stressed EL (SEL) |
| JEL: | G21 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:07-e-21&r=rmg |
| By: | Giannotti, Claudio; Mattarocci, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | Real estate investment is different from financial investment and such difference can affect the results of traditional mean - variance models. The literature on property finance summarises the differences of expected return and expected risk among individual real estate investments into four risk profiles: tenant, endogenous, exogenous and financial risks. The aim of this paper is to examine how the differences reported in the literature can affect the composition of a real estate portfolio based on Markowitz optimisation standards. The results stemming from the use of a real estate database supplied by Fimit SGR (Capitalia banking group) showed that an ex-ante study of risk profiles can help to identify those investment opportunities which are more or less near to the efficient frontier, although there is no prevailing criterion to identify a portfolio able to maximise investment diversification benefits. |
| Keywords: | Markowitz; Real Estate Portfolio and Risk Diversification |
| JEL: | G11 L85 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6483&r=rmg |
| By: | Massimo Guidolin (Manchester Business School and CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin); Giovanna Nicodano (University of Turin and CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin) |
| Abstract: | We show that predictable covariances between means and variances of stock returns may have a first order effect on portfolio composition. In an international asset menu that includes both European and North American small capitalization equity indices, we find that a three-state, heteroskedastic regime switching VAR model is required to provide a good fit to weekly return data and to accurately predict the dynamics in the joint density of returns. As a result of the non-linear dynamic features revealed by the data, small cap portfolios become riskier in bear markets, i.e. display negative co-skewness with other stock indices. Because of this property, a power utility investor ought to hold a well-diversified portfolio, despite the high risk premium and Sharpe ratios offered by small capitalization stocks. On the contrary small caps command large optimal weights when the investor ignores variance risk, by incorrectly assuming joint normality of returns. These results provide the missing partial equilibrium rationale for the presence of co-skewness in the empirical asset pricing models that have been proposed to explain the cross-section of stock returns. |
| Keywords: | intertemporal portfolio choice; return predictability; co-skewness and co-kurtosis; international portfolio diversification |
| JEL: | G11 G15 F30 C32 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crp:wpaper:68&r=rmg |
| By: | Marcos Souto; Christian Keller; Peter Kunzel |
| Abstract: | Improved macroeconomic conditions and changes to the asset-liability structure on Turkish balance sheets since the 2001 crisis have improved Turkey's overall sovereign risk profile. Nonetheless, the country remains subject to bouts of volatility, as evidenced most recently in the May/June 2006 market turbulence. This paper examines these changes in Turkey's risk profile using the Contingent Claims Approach (CCA), to quantify the evolution of Turkey's sovereign risk, relate risk indicators to market prices of risk, and conduct scenario analyses to assess the effects of potential market volatility and policy adjustments on key risk indicators. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Public debt , Turkey , Credit risk , Economic indicators , Economic models , |
| Date: | 2007–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/233&r=rmg |
| By: | Mayanja, Abubaker B.; Legesi, Kenneth |
| Abstract: | Using data from 2003-2007, we calculate the systematic risk and cost of equity for firms listed on USE; Preliminary estimates show that nominal Cost of equity capital reduced over time from 63.24 percent (January 2005 to January 2006) to 18% (February 2006 to March 2007). The efficient frontier shifted below in the period considered to suggest a general lowering of expected returns on portfolios, re-affirming the notion that stock markets lead to reduction in the cost of funds; and thus a viable option to bank finance that at the moment is considered prohibitive with annual percentage rates of between 20-25. |
| Keywords: | Cost of equity capital; Beta; CAPM; Uganda Securities Exchange (USE) |
| JEL: | G11 G15 G32 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6407&r=rmg |
| By: | Grégory Benmenzer (LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - CNRS : UMR5224 - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble); Emmanuel Gobet (LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - CNRS : UMR5224 - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble); Céline Jérusalem (LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - CNRS : UMR5224 - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | In this article we present a continuous time model for natural gas and crude oil future prices. Its main feature is the possibility to link both energies in the long term and in the short term. For each energy, the future returns are represented as the sum of volatility functions driven by motions. Under the risk neutral probability, the motions of both energies are correlated Brownian motions while under the historical probability, they are cointegrated by a Vectorial Error Correction Model. Our approach is equivalent to defining the market price of risk. This model is free of arbitrage: thus, it can be used for risk management as well for option pricing issues. Calibration on European market data and numerical simulations illustrate well its behavior. |
| Keywords: | future prices;natural gas; crude oil; cointegration; Vectorial Error Correction Model; arbitrage free modelling |
| Date: | 2007–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:hal-00200422_v1&r=rmg |
| By: | Acharya, Viral V; Schaefer, Stephen M; Zhang, Yili |
| Abstract: | The GM and Ford downgrade to junk status during May 2005 caused a wide-spread sell-off in their corporate bonds. Using a novel dataset, we document that this sell-off appears to have generated significant liquidity risk for market-makers, as evidenced in the significant imbalance in their quotes towards sales. We also document that simultaneously, there was excess co-movement in the fixed-income securities of all industries, not just in those of auto firms. In particular, using credit-default swaps (CDS) data, we find a substantial increase in the co-movement between innovations in the CDS spreads of GM and Ford and those of firms in all other industries, the increase being greatest during the period surrounding the actual downgrade and reversing sharply thereafter. We show that a measure of liquidity risk faced by corporate bond market-makers – specifically, the imbalance towards sales in the volume and frequency of quotes on GM and Ford bonds – explains a significant portion of this excess co-movement. Additional robustness checks suggest that this relationship between the liquidity risk faced by market-makers and the correlation risk for other securities in which they make markets was likely causal. Overall, the evidence is supportive of theoretical models which imply that funding liquidity risk faced by financial intermediaries is a determinant of market prices during stress times. |
| Keywords: | excess co-movement; financial crises; funding liquidity; inventory risk; market liquidity |
| JEL: | G12 G13 G14 G21 G22 |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6619&r=rmg |
| By: | Nancy Masschelein (National Bank of Belgium, Department of International cooperation and Financial Stability) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the questions that will need to be addressed in order to determine whether increased cyclicality in capital requirements will exacerbate the pro-cyclicality in the financial system. Many central banks have raised concerns about the potential cost of procyclicality that could come with the Basel II framework, which will be implemented in the EU via the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD). Previous capital adequacy rules required banks to hold a minimum amount of capital for each loan, regardless of the different risks involved. The main objective of the Basel II framework/CRD is to make capital requirements more risk-sensitive. Therefore, by construction, the capital requirements under the CRD will be more cyclical than under the previous rules. This raises two questions. First, does it matter whether regulatory capital requirements fluctuate more than before if banks’ (lending) behaviour is driven by other capital considerations (for example economic capital) ? Second, if it does matter, what impact will this have on the economic cycle? |
| Keywords: | Basel II/CRD, pro-cyclicality |
| JEL: | G18 E32 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:docwpp:200711-22&r=rmg |
| By: | Toudas, Kanellos; Karathanassis, George |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we construct a Governance Index for a sample of Greek companies quoted on the Athens Stock Exchange. We then classify firms, using each firm governance index, into three governance portfolios. Furthermore, the Fama and French model, extended to include a momentum variable, is tested for each of the three governance portfolios. Our findings suggest that most of the firms in our sample are semi-democracies followed by democracies and dictatorships respectively. Good governance appears to be of value in as much as we found higher Tobin’s q ratios for democracies followed by semi-democracies and dictatorships. We, also, report significant negative abnormal returns for shareholder-friendly and manager-friendly firms. The findings of significant negative abnormal returns are consistent with inefficient capital markets. At a practitioner level, the results imply that firms should practice vigorously good governance, as it is a policy of value to shareholders and possibly to other stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Governance; Firm Performance; Democratic and Dictatorship Firms |
| JEL: | G14 G30 |
| Date: | 2007–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6414&r=rmg |
| By: | Jorge Tovar; Christian Jaramillo; Carlos Hernández |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between risk, concentration and the exercise of market power by banking institutions. We use monthly balance-sheet and interest rate data for the Colombian banking system from 1997 to 2006. The evidence shows that, in the face of high risk, banks transfer a larger share of risk to customers through higher intermediation margins. The result suggests that systemic risk acts as a “collusion” device for banks: while high concentration is not enough to have collusion, the true effects of high market concentration on interest rates’ mark-ups emerge when the system is under stress. |
| Date: | 2007–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:004385&r=rmg |
| By: | Agustinus, Prasetyantoko |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of macro fluctuation on firm’s balance sheet to understand firm’s net worth as well as the corporate distress probability. We argue that debt policies could be pro-cyclical, since it enhances corporate distress risk when currency depreciation comes. |
| Keywords: | currency depreciation; firm performance; debt ratio |
| JEL: | D21 F34 G32 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6502&r=rmg |
| By: | Li L. Ong; Martin Cihák |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the scope for cross-border spillovers among major EU banks using information contained in the stock prices and financial statements of these banks. The results suggest that spillovers within domestic banking systems generally remain more likely, but the number of significant cross-border links is already larger than the number of significant links among domestic banks, adding a piece of empirical evidence supporting the need for strong cross-border supervisory cooperation within the EU. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability , European Union , Banking systems , |
| Date: | 2007–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/267&r=rmg |
| By: | Gianni De Nicoló; Elena Loukoianova |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model of a banking industry with heterogeneous banks that delivers predictions on the relationship between banks' risk of failure, market structure, bank ownership, and banks' screening and bankruptcy costs. These predictions are explored empirically using a panel of individual banks data and ownership information including more than 10,000 bank-year observations for 133 non-industrialized countries during the 1993-2004 period. Four main results obtain. First, the positive and significant relationship between bank concentration and bank risk of failure found in Boyd, De Nicolò and Al Jalal (2006) is stronger when bank ownership is taken into account, and it is strongest when state-owned banks have sizeable market shares. Second, conditional on country and firm specific characteristics, the risk profiles of foreign (state-owned) banks are significantly higher than (not significantly different from) those of private domestic banks. Third, private domestic banks do take on more risk as a result of larger market shares of both state-owned and foreign banks. Fourth, the model rationalizes this evidence if both state-owned and foreign banks have either larger screening and/or lower bankruptcy costs than private domestic banks, banks' differences in market shares, screening or bankruptcy costs are not too large, and loan markets are sufficiently segmented across banks of different ownership. |
| Keywords: | Working Paper , Banks , Corporate sector , Financial risk , Bankruptcy , Industrial structure , |
| Date: | 2007–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/215&r=rmg |
| By: | António Afonso (Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Davide Furceri (University of Illinois at Chicago, Department of Economics (M/C 144), University of Illinois at Chicago, 601 S. Morgan Street, Chicago, 60607, Illinois, USA.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we provide a positive exercise on past business-cycle correlations and risk sharing in the European Union, and on the ability of insurance mechanisms and fiscal policies to smooth income fluctuations. The results suggest in particular that while some of the new Member States have well synchronized business cycles, for some of the other countries, business cycles are not yet well synchronized with the euro area’s business cycle, and risk-sharing mechanisms may not provide enough insurance against shocks. JEL Classification: E32, E42, F41, F42. |
| Keywords: | EU, optimum currency areas, business cycle synchronization, insurance mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070844&r=rmg |
| By: | Juan Angel García (Capital Markets and Financial Structure Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Andrés Manzanares (Risk Management Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We find that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased towards favourable outcomes: they suggest too high growth and too low inflation rates. Most importantly, for each survey round, the aggregate survey results based on the average of the individual point predictions are also biased. These findings cast doubt on combined survey measures that average individual point predictions. Survey results based on probability forecasts are more reliable. JEL Classification: C42, E31, E47. |
| Keywords: | Point estimates, subjective probability distributions, Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), survey methods. |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070836&r=rmg |
| By: | Carolina Fugazza (CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin); Massimo Guidolin (Manchester Business School and CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin); Giovanna Nicodano (University of Turin and CeRP-Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin) |
| Abstract: | We calculate the ex-post portfolio performance for an investor who diversifies among stocks, bonds, REITS and cash. Simulations are performed for two alternative asset allocation frameworks – classical and Bayesian - and for scenarios involving two different samples and six different investment horizons. Interestingly, the ex-post welfare cost of restricting portfolio choices to traditional financial assets only is found to be positive in all scenarios for a Bayesian investor. On the contrary, substitution of E-REITS for stocks in optimal portfolios turns out to reduce ex-post portfolio performance over the nineties for a Classical investor. |
| Keywords: | optimal asset allocation, real estate, parameter uncertainty, out-of-sample performance |
| JEL: | G11 L85 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crp:wpaper:69&r=rmg |
| By: | Jan Kregel |
| Abstract: | This paper contrasts the economic incentives implicit in the Keynes-Minsky approach to inherent financial market instability with the incentives behind the traditional equilibrium approach leading to market stability to provide a framework for analyzing the stability induced by the recent changes in bank regulation to modernize financial services and the evolution of financial engineering innovations in the U.S. financial system. It suggests that the changes that have occurred in the profit incentives for bank holding companies have modified the provision of liquidity to the financial system by banks, and the way credit assessment has moved from banks to other actors in the system. It takes the current experience in financial instability created by the expansion, through securitization, of the mortgage market as an example of these changes. |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_523&r=rmg |