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on Risk Management |
| By: | Juan Carlos Escanciano; Jose Olmo (City University, London) |
| Abstract: | One of the implications of the creation of Basel Committee on Banking Supervision was the implementation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the standard tool for measuring market risk. Thereby the correct specification of parametric VaR models became of crucial importance in order to provide accurate and reliable risk measures. If the underlying risk model is not correctly specified, VaR estimates understate/overstate risk exposure. This can have dramatic consequences on stability and reputation of financial institutions or lead to sub-optimal capital allocation. We show that the use of the standard unconditional backtesting procedures to assess VaR models is completely misleading. These tests do not consider the impact of estimation risk and therefore use wrong critical values to assess market risk. The purpose of this paper is to quantify such estimation risk in a very general class of dynamic parametric VaR models and to correct standard backtesting procedures to provide valid inference in specification analyses. A Monte Carlo study illustrates our theoretical findings in finite-samples. Finally, an application to S&P500 Index shows the importance of this correction and its impact on capital requirements as imposed by Basel Accord, and on the choice of dynamic parametric models for risk management. |
| Keywords: | Backtesting; Basel Accord; Model Risk; Risk Management; Value at Risk; Conditional Quantile |
| JEL: | C52 C22 G21 G32 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2007005&r=rmg |
| By: | Rikkers, F.; Thibeault, A. |
| Abstract: | The objective of this research is to determine the optimal rating philosophy for the rating of SMEs, and to describe the consequences of the chosen philosophy on several related aspects. As to our knowledge, this is the first paper that studies the considerations of financial institutions on what rating philosophy to adopt for specific portfolios. The importance for banks to have a solid risk framework to predict credit risk of their counterparties is well reflected by the quality and the quantity of research on this subject. Moreover, a good risk framework is vital to become compliant with the new Basel II framework. Problem is that financial institutions nearly always neglect the first step in the rating model development process: the determination of the rating philosophy. It is very important for financial institutions to decide whether they want their internal rating systems to grade borrowers according to their current condition (point-in-time), or their expected condition over a cycle and in stress (through-the-cycle), because the rating philosophy influences many aspects such as: credit approval, pricing, credit and portfolio monitoring, the regulatory and internal capital requirements and the competitive position of a bank. This makes the question which rating philosophy to use very important. Moreover, many different modelling techniques exist to determine credit risk, but few attempts have been devoted to credit risk assessment of small commercial loans, although SME exposures are relatively important for European banks. SMEs have specific characteristics that influence the rating philosophy and therefore the development and use of credit risk models. These SME characteristics are taken into account in the analysis to determine the optimal rating philosophy. |
| Keywords: | rating philosophy, small business, Basel II, credit rating, banks |
| JEL: | D82 E32 G20 G28 G33 |
| Date: | 2007–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vlg:vlgwps:2007-10&r=rmg |
| By: | Manuel, Eduardo |
| Abstract: | Always, anytime, we speak about innovation, that it occurs in our live, firms, countries and regions. The innovation is very important for survive of any firm, any entrepreneur, any country and any region in world market due to their speed evolution. This paper has as objective to approach the relationship between Innovation and Risk Management. We concluded that the relationship between innovation and risk management will exist always whereas we are continuing to live in global world that it originated a global market in all economic sectors. And for any firm, any entrepreneur, any country or any region that wants to survive in this world or market it need to do a risk management that consist in to innovate, and so can reduce the uncertainty relatively their contextual environment that affect a determined activity and consequently that is affecting their performance. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Risk; Risk Management |
| JEL: | M29 O31 M19 D81 |
| Date: | 2007–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2277&r=rmg |
| By: | Srobona Mitra; Elena Duggar |
| Abstract: | The large and growing international linkages of big Irish banks expose them to idiosyncratic shocks arising in other countries. We analyze international interdependencies of Irish banks-during both normal times and in periods of large shocks or extreme events-using an existing methodology with distance to default (DD) data constructed from the banks' equity prices. The data covers daily observations from January 1994 to November 2005. We first construct rolling correlations between DDs of Irish banks and those of banks from other European countries and the U.S. to analyze trends in cross-country interdependencies. We then use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in Ireland that experience a large shock on the same day as banks in other countries ("coexceedances"), controlling for Ireland-specific and global factors. We find evidence of increasing cross-border interdependencies over time; differing interlinkage patterns in the pre-Euro, post-Euro, and the post-September 11th periods; and significant cross-border contagion risk from the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Netherlands. This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. |
| Keywords: | Contagion risk , distance to default , Ireland , Banking , Ireland , Risk management , International financial system , Economic models , |
| Date: | 2007–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/44&r=rmg |
| By: | Brunnermeier, Markus K; Pedersen, Lasse Heje |
| Abstract: | We provide a model that links an asset's market liquidity - i.e., the ease with which it is traded - and traders' funding liquidity - i.e., the ease with which they can obtain funding. Traders provide market liquidity, and their ability to do so depends on their availability of funding. Conversely, traders' funding, i.e., their capital and the margins they are charged, depend on the assets' market liquidity. We show that, under certain conditions, margins are destabilizing and market liquidity and funding liquidity are mutually reinforcing, leading to liquidity spirals. The model explains the empirically documented features that market liquidity (i) can suddenly dry up, (ii) has commonality across securities, (iii) is related to volatility, (iv) is subject to 'flight to quality', and (v) comoves with the market, and it provides new testable predictions. |
| Keywords: | counterparty credit risk; leverage; liquidity risk management; margins; systemic risk; value-at-risk |
| JEL: | G1 G2 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6179&r=rmg |