New Economics Papers
on Risk Management
Issue of 2006‒02‒05
four papers chosen by

  1. Asset Return Correlation in Basel II: Implications for Credit Risk Management. By Marie-Paule Laurent
  3. Dry Markets and Statistical Arbitrage Bounds for European Derivatives By Matos, Joao Amaro de; Lacerda, Ana
  4. Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk By Refet S. Gürkaynak; Justin Wolfers

  1. By: Marie-Paule Laurent (Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Business School, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels)
    Abstract: The Basel Committee is currently reviewing the Accord on capital adequacy. It should provide new approaches that are more sensitive to risks. This paper focuses on the Internal Rating Based Advanced approach for retail exposures, which is compared to a one systematic factor model in order to highlight the underlying hypotheses of Basel II. The Basel framework assumes that the asset return correlation is solely determined by the probability of default (PD). However, the one-factor model highlights the influence of the volatility of PD on the asset return correlation, especially for low PDs. The assumption of the Basel framework implies first that there may be opportunities for regulatory arbitrage. Second, as the regulatory capital curve is concave in PD, it gives an incentive to decompose the portfolio into segments only for reducing the capital requirement. Finally, the inaccurate measure of asset return correlation might be misleading for credit risk management. The Basel framework is applied to a large portfolio of retail contracts (35,787 individual automotive lease contracts) provided from a major European financial institution. We show that the outcomes of Basel II are empirically relevant.
    Keywords: credit risk, Basle II, asset correlation
    JEL: G11 G18
    Date: 2004–04
  2. By: P.N. Smith; S. Sorensen; M.R. Wickens
    Abstract: We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960-2003 using a new methodology that allows us to estimate a time-varying equity premium. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the equity risk premium, and the other is through the volatility of returns. We provide support for previous findings based on simple correlation analysis that the relation is asymmetric with downturns in the business cycle having a greater negative impact on stock returns than the positive effect of upturns. We also obtain a new result, that demand and supply shocks affect stock returns differently. Our model of the relation between returns and their volatility encompasses CAPM, consumption CAPM and Merton's (1973) inter-temporal CAPM. It is implemented using a multi-variate GARCH-in-mean model with an asymmetric time-varying conditional heteroskedasticity and correlation structure.
    JEL: G12 C32 C51 E44
    Date: 2006–01
  3. By: Matos, Joao Amaro de; Lacerda, Ana
    Abstract: We derive statistical arbitrage bounds for the buying and selling price of European derivatives under incomplete markets. In this paper, incompleteness is generated due to the fact that the market is dry, i.e., the underlying asset cannot be transacted at certain points in time. In particular, we re¯ne the notion of statistical arbitrage in order to extend the procedure for the case where dryness is random, i.e., at each point in time the asset can be transacted with a given probability. We analytically characterize several properties of the statistical arbitragefree interval, show that it is narrower than the super-replication interval and dominates somehow alternative intervals provided in the literature. Moreover, we show that, for su±ciently incomplete markets, the statistical arbitrage interval contains the reservation price of the derivative.
    Date: 2006
  4. By: Refet S. Gürkaynak; Justin Wolfers
    Abstract: In September 2002, a new market in "Economic Derivatives" was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are similar to survey-based forecasts, although the market-based measures somewhat more accurately predict financial market responses to surprises in data. These markets also provide implied probabilities of the full range of specific outcomes, allowing us to measure uncertainty, assess its driving forces, and compare this measure of uncertainty with the dispersion of point-estimates among individual forecasters (a measure of disagreement). We also assess the accuracy of market-generated probability density forecasts. A consistent theme is that few of the behavioral anomalies present in surveys of professional forecasts survive in equilibrium, and that these markets are remarkably well calibrated. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence that risk-aversion drives a wedge between market prices and probabilities in this market.
    Keywords: Derivative securities ; Macroeconomics ; Forecasting
    Date: 2005

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