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on Resource Economics |
| By: | Thomas Stoerk; John E. Roemer; Humberto Llavador |
| Abstract: | The Paris Agreement is designed to increase climate ambition gradually through a process of ratcheting up. What is the plausible endpoint of this process? We develop a tractable integrated assessment model in which countries interact through a decentralized general equilibrium and negotiate unanimously over a global carbon budget, with all mitigation implemented via a global carbon price. We prove existence and uniqueness of a unanimous international agreement on global emissions, in which carbon pricing revenues are redistributed across countries in proportion to marginal climate damages. In a quantitative application for 154 countries, the resulting equilibrium limits global mean surface temperature change to 1.51◦C, at a carbon price of 320 USD/tCO2. The associated international transfers of carbon pricing revenue are progressive toward lower-income countries and amount to about 0.8% of global GDP annually – an order of magnitude larger than the Paris Agreement's climate finance target. |
| Keywords: | climate economics, climate policy, international environmental agreement, Paris Agreement |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 F35 F53 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1545 |
| By: | Lee Crawfurd (Center for Global Development); James Hu (Coefficient Giving); Theodore Mitchell (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | One in three children worldwide has harmful levels of lead exposure. Lead-acid batteries are the main use of lead by weight, and many are recycled unsafely, but it is uncertain how much of human exposure can be traced to this recycling. In this paper, we provide new modelled estimates suggesting that around 33 percent of lead exposure in low- and lower-middle-income countries may come from battery recycling, although there remains significant uncertainty. The vast majority of harm comes from mass population low-level exposure, rather than localised hotspots. Previous studies have typically focused on small populations with high exposure living within hundreds of metres of polluted sites, but recent reduced-form quasi-experimental evidence demonstrates smaller negative effects for people living within much wider areas, affecting many more people. Our simulation model reconciles these approaches, and shows that expanding the area of concern around each recycling site increases the estimated share of global lead exposure attributable to battery recycling by an order of magnitude, from just 0.50 percent when considering only the high exposures within a few hundred metres of a site. |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:739 |
| By: | Tankwa, Brendon; Ravigné, Emilien (The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Farmer, J. Doyne |
| Abstract: | We study how climate policies shaped solar and wind deployment in 49 OECD+ countries from 1990 to 2023. Combining capacity data with policy stringency from the OECD Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework, we estimate event-study difference-in-differences models for diffusion speed (the annual growth rate of log installed capacity) around policy onsets and strengthenings, and embed these responses in an S-curve framework to map growth-rate changes into counterfactual capacity paths. Three findings stand out. First, policy design and timing matter more than simple presence: positive feed in tariff (price and duration) reforms and renewable expansion planning reliably accelerate deployment, while carbon pricing, emissions trading systems, and renewable portfolio standards do not show robust short-run effects; coal exit measures yield delayed gains, mainly for solar. Second, policy-induced increases in growth rates are transient but cumulate into level differences: relative to a no-policy diffusion baseline, the policy bundle roughly doubles solar capacity and increases wind capacity by about 30 percent, with feed-in tariffs and renewable expansion planning accounting for most of this boost. Significant cross-country heterogeneity exists in total policy-induced boosts, along with a moderate correlation between solar and wind outcomes. Third, effectiveness depends on the stage of diffusion and on technology: well-designed deployment support introduced at low penetration delivers much larger proportional gains than the same instruments implemented later, and solar is more policy-sensitive than wind. The results imply that policy portfolios aimed at rapid decarbonisation should prioritise early, credible deployment support tailored to technology and system constraints, rather than economy-wide pricing instruments. |
| Keywords: | Technology diffusion, solar/wind adoption, Policy Impacts, Feed-in-Tariffs, Grid integration, Coal phase-out, Auctions |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-01 |
| By: | Jérôme Hambye-Verbrugghen (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stefano Bianchini (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Paul E Brockway (SEE - School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] - University of Leeds); Emmanuel Aramendia (SEE - School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] - University of Leeds); Matthew K Heun (SEE - School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] - University of Leeds, Calvin University [Grand Rapids], SU - Stellenbosch University); Zeke Marshall (SEE - School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] - University of Leeds) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the potential of digitalisation to drive structural transformations towards a sustainable economy. We apply an index decomposition analysis (IDA) to understand the factors influencing energy demand in a panel of 31 high-income countries (1971-2019). The IDA framework includes four factors related to the scale and sectoral composition of the economy and technical improvements, accounting for the quality of energy flows and actual work potential through useful exergy measures. We apply the model at the sector level across 16 productive industries to explore cross-sector heterogeneity in energy demand, and then compare results across digitial intensity categories. We find that value added growth is the primary driver of energy use. While digitalisation alone does not fully explain trends in energy demand, it is strongly associated with value added growth in high digital intensity sectors and amplifies the use of energy. Left ungoverned, digitalisation risks intensifying economic-ecological tensions, but if steered towards socioecological priorities-while addressing the environmental costs of growth-it holds potential to deliver real benefits. We discuss these findings in the context of recent policy actions promoting the ''twin" green and digital transition. |
| Keywords: | Technological change, Structural change, Digitalisation, Energy efficiency, Energy |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05460038 |