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on Resource Economics |
| By: | Sofia P. Baker (Department of Economics, University of Missouri); J. Isaac Miller (Department of Economics, University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: | To balance the tradeoff between economic activity and climate goals by internalizing the cost of emissions, integrated assessment models calculate a social cost of carbon. Embedded in such models are physical energy balance climate models that typically employ temporally constant climate parameters. We examine the empirical effects of changing surface albedo over time. To this end, we leverage satellite data since 2001 in a state-space model in conjunction with an adaptation of the reverse Kalman filter to estimate incoming energy less albedo over 1850-2023. The results show a decreasing albedo trend over most of the sample. Our estimates are consistent with the snow albedo feedback (SAF) where melting ice leads to declines in albedo, thereby causing increased heat absorption at the surface and further melting. Together, these findings indicate that the heating effects of carbon emissions are amplified by the SAF, the omission of which in the carbon pricing decision leads to underpricing. |
| Keywords: | climate change, energy balance climate model, snow albedo effect, carbon pricing |
| JEL: | C32 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2605 |
| By: | Asad, Saher; Behrer, A. Patrick; Heger, Martin; Yanez Pagans, Monica |
| Abstract: | Ambient air pollution is a major health risk, but its implications for human capital formation are not well understood, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where exposure is high. This paper estimates the causal effect of sustained exposure to fine particulate matter on primary-school learning in rural Punjab, Pakistan. The paper combines longitudinal student achievement data from the Learning and Educational Achievements in Punjab Schools project with high-resolution satellite-based fine particulate matter estimates. To address endogeneity of pollution to local economic activity, the analysis exploits plausibly exogenous variation generated by open burning of agricultural residue interacted with wind direction, constructing school-year measures of upwind fire exposure as instruments for local fine particulate matter. The instrumental variable estimates show that higher school-year fine particulate matter significantly slows learning, with larger effects in mathematics than in language subjects. The results are consistent with impacts operating during instructional months: pollution exposure during the school year predicts lower achievement, while exposure during vacation months has little explanatory power. The findings show statistically imprecise heterogeneity by age and gender, opposite to patterns found in comparable settings. The analysis is organized around a simple framework in which learning depends on attendance, cognition, effort, and instructional quality, each a function of exposure to poor air quality. Pollution increases student absences, but this attendance channel explains only a small portion of the total effect, implying that most of the learning loss is non-attendance-related and likely operates through the framework’s other channels — direct effects on cognition, reduced effort, and degraded instructional quality. |
| Date: | 2026–09–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11463 |
| By: | José-Luis Cruz (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Klaus Desmet (Department of Economics and Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, NBER and CEPR); Esteban Rossi-Hansberg (Department of Economics, University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that plays a key role in regulating global climate, including moderating temperatures in Europe and the North Atlantic. Its potential collapse due to global warming is widely considered one of the more likely climate tipping points. This paper examines the economic implications of such a collapse using a dynamic spatially integrated assessment model (S-IAM) of the world economy. Scandinavia and parts of Russia are predicted to experience significant losses in GDP and welfare, while southern Europe, northern Africa, and Brazil benefit from slightly colder temperatures. S-IAMs generally predict that global warming is especially harmful to low-income regions, but an AMOC collapse could mitigate some of these negative impacts in parts of the developing world while instead harming some of the more advanced economies. This lowers spatial inequality, but global welfare drops by 1.9% by 2200 under an intermediate-emissions scenario. |
| Keywords: | climate tipping points, AMOC, spatially integrated assessment models, geography, development |
| JEL: | F18 F64 O11 Q54 Q56 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-122 |