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on Resource Economics |
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Issue of 2013‒11‒29
nine papers chosen by |
| By: | Zon, Adriaan van (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG, and Maastricht University); David, Paul (SIEPR, and Economics Department, Standford University, and UNU-MERIT/MGSoG) |
| Abstract: | The research reported here gives priority to understanding the inter-temporal resource allocation requirements of a program of technological changes that could halt global warming by completing the transition to a "green" (zero net CO2-emission) production regime within the possibly brief finite interval that remains before Earth's climate is driven beyond a catastrophic tipping point. This paper formulates a multi-phase, just-in-time transition model incorporating carbon-based and carbon-free technical options requiring physical embodiment in durable production facilities, and having performance attributes that are amenable to enhancement by directed R&D expenditures. Transition paths that indicate the best ordering and durations of the phases in which intangible and tangible capital formation is taking place, and capital stocks of different types are being utilized in production, or scrapped when replaced types embodying socially more efficient technologies, are obtained from optimizing solutions for each of a trio of related models that couple the global macro-economy's dynamics with the dynamics of the climate system. They describe the flows of consumption, CO2 emissions and the changing atmospheric concentration of green-house gas (which drives global warming), along with the investment dynamics required for the timely transformation of the production regime. These paths are found as the welfare-optimizing solutions of three different "stacked Hamiltonians", each corresponding to one of our trio of integrated endogenous growth models that have been calibrated comparably to emulate the basic global setting for the "transition planning" framework of dynamic integrated requirements analysis modeling (DIRAM). As the paper's introductory section explains, this framework is proposed in preference to the (IAM) approach that environmental and energy economists have made familiar in integrated assessment models of climate policies that would rely on fiscal and regulatory instruments -- but eschew any analysis of the essential technological transformations that would be required for those policies to have the intended effect. Simulation exercises with our models explore the optimized transition paths' sensitivity to parameter variations, including alternative exogenous specifications of the location of a pair of successive climate "tipping points": the first of these initiates higher expected rates of damage to productive capacity by extreme weather events driven by the rising temperature of the Earth's surface; whereas the second, far more serious "climate catastrophe" tipping point occurs at a still higher temperature (corresponding to a higher atmospheric concentration of CO2). In effect, that sets the point before which the transition to a carbon-free global production regime must have been completed in order to secure the possibility of future sustainable development and continued global economic growth. |
| Keywords: | global warming, tipping point, catastrophic climate instability, extreme weatherrelated damages, R&D, directed technical change, capital-embodied technologies, optimal sequencing, multi-phase optimal control, sustainable endogenous growth |
| JEL: | Q54 Q55 O31 O32 O33 O41 O44 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2013041&r=res |
| By: | Zon, Adriaan van (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG, and Maastricht University); David, Paul (SIEPR, and Economics Department, Standford University, and UNU-MERIT/MGSoG) |
| Abstract: | The research reported here gives priority to understanding the inter-temporal resource allocation requirements of a program of technological changes that could halt global warming by completing the transition to a "green" (zero net CO2- emission) production regime within the possibly brief finite interval that remains before Earth's climate is driven beyond a catastrophic tipping point. This paper formulates a multi-phase, just-in-time transition model incorporating carbon-based and carbon-free technical options requiring physical embodiment in durable production facilities, and having performance attributes that are amenable to enhancement by directed R&D expenditures. Transition paths that indicate the best ordering and durations of the phases in which intangible and tangible capital formation is taking place, and capital stocks of different types are being utilized in production, or scrapped when replaced types embodying socially more efficient technologies, are obtained from optimizing solutions for each of a trio of related models that couple the global macro-economy's dynamics with the dynamics of the climate system. They describe the flows of consumption, CO2 emissions and the changing atmospheric concentration of green-house gas (which drives global warming), along with the investment dynamics required for the timely transformation of the production regime. These paths are found as the welfare-optimizing solutions of three different "stacked Hamiltonians", each corresponding to one of our trio of integrated endogenous growth models that have been calibrated comparably to emulate the basic global setting for the "transition planning" framework of dynamic integrated requirements analysis modelling (DIRAM). As the paper's introductory section explains, this framework is proposed in preference to the (IAM) approach that environmental and energy economists have made familiar in integrated assessment models of climate policies that would rely on fiscal and regulatory instruments -- but eschew any analysis of the essential technological transformations that would be required for those policies to have the intended effect. Simulation exercises with our models explore the optimized transition paths' sensitivity to parameter variations, including alternative exogenous specifications of the location of a pair of successive climate "tipping points": the first of these initiates higher expected rates of damage to productive capacity by extreme weather events driven by the rising temperature of the Earth's surface; whereas the second, far more serious "climate catastrophe" tipping point occurs at a still higher temperature (corresponding to a higher atmospheric concentration of CO2). In effect, that sets the point before which the transition to a carbon-free global production regime must have been completed in order to secure the possibility of future sustainable development and continued global economic growth. |
| Keywords: | global warming, tipping point, catastrophic climate instability, extreme weather-related damages, R&D based technical change, embodied technical change, optimal sequencing, multi-phase optimal control, sustainable endogenous growth |
| JEL: | Q54 Q55 O31 O32 O33 O41 O44 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2013009&r=res |
| By: | Federico Cingano (OECD); Ivan Faiella (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The Europe 2020 strategy commits Italy to reduce emissions by about 16 per cent by 2020, compared with 2005. In the case of transport, the sector that has contributed most to the growth of total emissions between 1990 and 2008, the 2020 target could be achieved by introducing a Carbon Tax (CT). A CT would significantly reduce householdsÂ’ demand for private transportation, lowering their emissions. CT proceedings could pay for the reduction of more distortive levies (e.g. labour taxation) or recycled to finance the deploying of renewable energy, replacing the existing charges on electricity consumption, thus alleviating the cost burden of less-affluent households. The CT would also be consistent with the polluter-pays principle, since the largest reduction in emissions would be financed to a proportionally larger extent by those with higher emissions. |
| Keywords: | environmental taxation, climate change, transports |
| JEL: | D62 Q52 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_206_13&r=res |
| By: | Nikita Lyssenko; Leslie Shiell |
| Abstract: | Most policy exercises that model the optimal control of greenhouse gas emissions have focused almost exclusively on the pollution problem in isolation from the fossil fuels scarcity problem. We argue that this approach misses important interactions between the two issues and, contrary to what is claimed, will lead to sub-optimal policies, at least within the framework of the models employed. To demonstrate, we employ an intertemporally optimizing model of economy and climate, with carbon resource scarcity and a backstop technology. Using plausible parameter values, we conclude that the initial resource shadow price is approximately twice the value of the pollution shadow price. Therefore, the optimal carbon tax is approximately three times what would be recommended if we focused solely on the pollution problem. This result is robust to changes in the values of key parameters, including the social discount rate and the backstop price. |
| Keywords: | pollution, scarcity, carbon tax, climate policy |
| JEL: | Q3 Q4 |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eus:ce3swp:0613&r=res |
| By: | Frederick van der Ploeg; Aart de Zeeuw |
| Abstract: | The optimal reaction to a pending climate catastrophe is to accumulate capital to be better prepared for the disaster and levy a carbon tax to reduce the risk of the hazard by curbing global warming. The optimal carbon tax consists of the present value of marginal damages, the non-marginal expected change in welfare caused by a marginal higher risk of catastrophe, and the expected loss in after-catastrophe welfare. The last two terms offset precautionary capital accumulation. A linear hazard function calibrated to an expected time of 15 years for a 32% drop in global GDP if temperature stays at 6 degrees Celsius implies with a discount rate of 1.4% a precautionary return of 1.6% and a carbon tax of 136 US $/tC. More intertemporal substitution lowers precautionary capital accumulation and lessens the need for a high carbon tax, but implies less intergenerational inequality aversion which pushes up the carbon tax. |
| Keywords: | non-marginal climate policy, tipping points, risk avoidance, economic growth, social cost of carbon, precaution, adaptation capital |
| JEL: | D81 H20 O40 Q31 Q38 |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eus:ce3swp:0213&r=res |
| By: | Grimaud, André; Neubauer, Mauricio; Rougé, Luc |
| Abstract: | We study an economy in which a final good is produced by two sectors. One uses a non-renewable and polluting resource, the other a renewable and clean resource. A specific type of research is associated to each sector. The public authorities levy a carbon tax and simultaneously subsidize both research sectors. We study the impact of such a policy scheme on the rate of resource extraction and emissions. The subsidy to research in the clean sector goes in the opposite direction of the effects of the carbon tax. If the tax creates a green paradox, the subsidy moderates it; if the tax slows down resource extraction, then the subsidy generates a green paradox |
| Keywords: | carbon tax, directed technical change, green paradox, R&D policy |
| JEL: | O32 O41 Q20 Q32 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:27735&r=res |
| By: | Keisuke Kawata (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Yasunori Ouchida (Graduate School of Social Science, Hiroshima University) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a two-country model, Home and Foreign, with offshoring and environmental spillover. A final good producer in Home can produce (homogeneous) final goods using customized inputs produced by its partner-supplier in Foreign. The intermediate input price is determined by Nash bargaining, presenting a hold-up problem. Additionally, input production causes transboundary pollution. Home and Foreign governments can set trade taxes. Moreover, the Foreign government can set the environmental standard. This model demonstrates that, under no international policy agreement, both the environmental standard and the quantity of the intermediate input are lower than the first-best levels. This ineffciency persists even if both governments conclude an agreement. |
| Keywords: | Offshoring; Intermediate input trade; Emission spillover; Environmental standard; Incomplete contract |
| JEL: | F21 F13 F18 L24 Q56 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hir:idecdp:3-8&r=res |
| By: | David I. Stern; Frank Jotzo; Leo Dobes |
| Abstract: | We review the historical literature on the economics of climate change with a focus on the evolution of the literature from some of the early classic papers to the latest contributions. We divide the paper into three main sections: trends in greenhouse gas emissions, mitigation, and adaptation. |
| Keywords: | Economics, climate change, emissions trends, mitigation, adaptation |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:ccepwp:1307&r=res |
| By: | Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim; Ozturk, Ilhan |
| Abstract: | We use panel cointegration techniques to investigate the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and trade openness in three different models for a panel of twenty five OECD countries over the period 1980-2009. Also the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis has been tested for these countries. Short-run Granger causality tests show the existence of a unidirectional causality running from the square of per capita output to per capita CO2 emissions and per capita non-renewable energy consumption and a unidirectional causality running from per capita real exports to per capita CO2 emissions. There is an indirect short-run causality running from per capita output to per capita non-renewable energy consumption. In the long-run, the FMOLS and DOLS estimates suggest that per capita GDP and per capita non-renewable energy consumption have a positive impact on per capita CO2 emissions. The long-run estimates suggest that the square of per capita GDP, per capita renewable energy consumption, and per capita real exports and imports have a negative impact on per capita CO2 emissions. Therefore, more trade openness and more use of renewable energy are efficient strategies to combat global warming. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets curve; Renewable energy; Non-renewable energy; Trade openness; CO2 emissions; Panel cointegration techniques. |
| JEL: | C33 F18 Q42 Q43 |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:51672&r=res |