By: |
Marius-Cristian Frunza (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, Sagacarbon - Sagacarbon SA);
Dominique Guegan (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris) |
Abstract: |
The aim of this work is to bring an econometric approach upon the CO2 market.
We identify the specificities of this market, and regarding the carbon as a
commodity. We investigate the econometric particularities of CO2 prices
behavior and their result of the calibration. We apprehend and explain the
reasons of the non-Gaussian behavior of this market focusing mainly upon jump
diffusion and generalized hyperbolic distributions. We test these results for
the risk modeling of a structured product specific to the carbon market, the
swap between two carbon instruments : The European Union Allowances and the
Certiified Emission Reductions. We estimate the counterparty risk for this
kind of transaction and evaluate the impact of different models upon the risk
measure and the allocated capital. |
Keywords: |
Carbon, Normal Inverse Gaussian, CER, EUA, swap. |
Date: |
2009–05 |
URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00390676_v1&r=res |