|
on Regulation |
| By: | Davis, Steven J; Lewis, Nathan S.; Shaner, Matthew; Aggarwal, Sonia; Arent, Doug; Azevedo, Inês; Benson, Sally; Bradley, Thomas; Brouwer, Jack; Chiang, Yet-Ming; Clack, Christopher T.M.; Cohen, Armond; Doig, Stephen; Edmonds, Jae; Fennell, Paul; Field, Christopher B.; Hannegan, Bryan; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hoffert, Martin I.; Ingersoll, Eric; Jaramillo, Paulina; Lackner, Klaus S.; Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael; Ogden, Joan M.; Peterson, Per F.; Sanchez, Daniel L.; Sperling, Daniel; Stagner, Joseph; Trancik, Jessika E.; Yang, Chi-Jen; Caldeira, Ken |
| Abstract: | Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al. review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply. Current technologies and pathways show promise, but integration of now-discrete energy sectors and industrial processes is vital to achieve minimal emissions. Net emissions of CO2 by human activities - including not only energy services and industrial production but also land use and agriculture - must approach zero in order to stabilize global mean temperature. Energy services such as light-duty transportation, heating, cooling, and lighting may be relatively straightforward to decarbonize by electrifying and generating electricity from variable renewable energy sources (such as wind and solar) and dispatchable ("on-demand") nonrenewable sources (including nuclear energy and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage). However, other energy services essential to modern civilization entail emissions that are likely to be more difficult to fully eliminate. These difficult-to-decarbonize energy services include aviation, long-distance transport, and shipping; production of carbon-intensive structural materials such as steel and cement; and provision of a reliable electricity supply that meets varying demand. Moreover, demand for such services and products is projected to increase substantially over this century. The long-lived infrastructure built today, for better or worse, will shape the future. Here, we review the special challenges associated with an energy system that does not add any CO2 to the atmosphere (a net-zero emissions energy system). We discuss prominent technological opportunities and barriers for eliminating and/or managing emissions related to the difficult-to-decarbonize services; pitfalls in which near-term actions may make it more difficult or costly to achieve the net-zero emissions goal; and critical areas for research, development, demonstration, and deployment. It may take decades to research, develop, and deploy these new technologies. DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aas9793 |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7qv6q35r&r=all |
| By: | Jenn, Alan |
| Abstract: | Incentives for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are typically designed to encourage broad consumer adoption of the new technology. However, maximizing the emissions benefits from electrifying the transportation sector also requires incentives targeted at stakeholders with high travel intensity, i.e., those with particularly high passenger occupancy and/or vehicle-miles traveled (VMT). This policy brief focuses on one such class of stakeholders: transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft. It examines empirical data of electric vehicle use in TNCs and discusses research findings on the potential impacts of electrifying TNCs. It also raises important considerations for the development of future policy. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, electric vehicles, vehicle miles traveled, incentives, plug-in electric vehicles, transportation network companies, ridesharing |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt12s554kd&r=all |
| By: | Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna; Qu, Songze; Ancev, Tihomir |
| Abstract: | Our paper investigates the effect of wind and utility-scale solar electricity generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia over 2010-2018. We use both high frequency (30-minute) and daily datasets for the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). We estimate autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL) to decompose the merit order effect of wind and utility-scale solar PV generation over time and across states. We find that an extra GW of dispatched wind capacity decreases the wholesale electricity price by 11 AUD/MWh at the time of generation, while solar capacity by 14 AUD/MWh. The daily merit order effect is lower. We show that the wind merit order effect has been increasing as a function of dispatched wind capacity over time. Despite of this, wholesale electricity prices in Australia have been increasing, predominantly driven by the increase in gas prices. Our findings further strengthen the evidence of the merit order effect of renewable energy sources, with important implications for the current energy policy debate in Australia. |
| Keywords: | electricity price; merit order effect; natural gas price; solar generation; wind generation. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2019-09&r=all |
| By: | Jianwei Xing; Benjamin Leard; Shanjun Li |
| Abstract: | The emissions reductions from the adoption of a new transportation technology depend on the emissions from the new technology relative to those from the displaced technology. We evaluate the emissions reductions from electric vehicles (EVs) by identifying which vehicles would have been purchased had EVs not been available. We do so by estimating a random coefficients discrete choice model of new vehicle demand and simulating counterfactual sales with EVs no longer subsidized or removed from the new vehicle market. Our results suggest that vehicles that EVs replace are relatively fuel-efficient: EVs replace gasoline vehicles with an average fuel economy of 4.2 mpg above the fleet-wide average and 12 percent of them replace hybrid vehicles. Federal income tax credits resulted in a 29 percent increase in EV sales, but 70 percent of the credits were obtained by households that would have bought an EV without the credits. By simulating alternative subsidy designs, we demonstrate the distributional and efficiency outcomes across different policy alternatives. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q48 Q55 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25771&r=all |
| By: | Jung, Heejung; Li, Chengguo |
| Abstract: | Exposure to particulate matter (PM) and pollutant gas (NOx) is associated with increased cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. Mobile source emissions contribute to PM and NOx emissions significantly in urban areas. Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) plays an important role to reduce emissions. While sales of electric vehicles has been increasing, electric vehicles have to overcome issues with charging time, driving range, and production/sales cost for more widespread market penetration. Hybrid electric vehicles have a potential to serve as a bridge technology between current internal combustion engine powered vehicles and zero emissions vehicles such as electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Current regulations require emissions to be tested on a chassis dynamometer. However, it is known that on-road emissions can be quite different from that those measured on regulatory driving cycles in the lab. In this study, emissions from two HEVs with different combustion technologies (gasoline direction injection vs port fuel injection) were compared using PEMS (portable emissions measurement system) and tailpipe sensors under cold weather conditions. The study has found the frequency and duration of re-ignition events vary depending on the type of HEV. Prius (PFI HEV) showed more frequent re-ignition events compared to Sonata (GDI HEV) for both city and highway driving conditions. Prius re-ignited almost every one minute while Sonata re-ignited every two minutes on average during the city driving condition. Reignition events affected emissions profile significantly during the city driving condition. As a result, Prius showed higher NOx emissions during the city driving condition while Sonata showed higher NOx emissions during the cold-cold start and highway driving condition. For PM emissions, PFI technology is known to make minimal amount of soot which is shown in the cold-cold start result while GDI technology is more prone to generating soot. This gap is reduced in city and highway driving condition due to more frequent re-ignition events of the PFI HEV (referring to Prius). Future studies should include more vehicles to understand whether the re-ignition events are vehicle specific or technology specific. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0c4842fp&r=all |
| By: | Kurani, Kenneth S. |
| Abstract: | Ambitious global goals to improve energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are motivating a shift to electric vehicles (EVs), which include battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles. In 2018, the governor of California called for five million EVs to be on California’s roads by 2030. The International Energy Agency projects a global increase in EVs from 2 million today to 280 million by 2040. Creating sustained market growth to meet such goals presents numerous challenges to all EV stakeholders, including governments, the automobile industry, electricity suppliers, non-governmental organizations, and consumers. This policy brief summarizes the latest in a series of recurring surveys of consumers regarding their awareness and consideration of EVs. Two surveys of the population of car-owning households in California were conducted in February and June of 2017; sample sizes were 1,681 and 1,706, respectively. Several survey questions have been repeated over multiple years in similar samples, allowing comparison to earlier results. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Automobile ownership, Consumers, Electric vehicles, Market penetration, Market surveys, Plug-in hybrid vehicles, Policy analysis, Zero emission vehicles |
| Date: | 2019–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9435h15r&r=all |
| By: | Turrentine, Tom; Hardman, Scott; Garas, Dahlia |
| Abstract: | To achieve carbon reduction goals for 2040 and 2050, plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) policy must be worldwide and involve multi-decade policy programs. One policy is a broadening commitment to ending fossil fuels for light-duty vehicles; this will solidify the direction and accelerate investments in zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) and decapitalization of internal combustion drivetrain production so as to enable the climate driven timetable of the transition. Another proposed policy is up to two decades of financial signals to buyers and producers, sized to keep the market tilted toward PEVs while production costs decline. Additional privileges in road, parking and electricity systems are needed to attract more conservative segments of buyers and sellers. PEV manufacturers could commit to at least three generations of PEV design, and investment and product rollout into all market segments and vehicle designs. Outreach and education campaigns lasting through those three generations of potential consumers could also be implemented, including leveraging the enthusiastic desire of the first few million buyers to educate coworkers and neighbors. Inclusion of energy transitions in the education system is also necessary. The retail sector, primarily dealers included in the policy, could also have education and incentive programs. Efforts of OEMs, governments and power companies could be coordinated to meet charging needs and wants of the expanding market. This will need to include the greening of the grid and integration of PEVs in the system optimization of renewables. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1w3836d3&r=all |
| By: | Lazarus, Jessica; Shaheen, Susan PhD; Young, Stanley; Fagnant, Daniel; Voege, Tom; Baumgardner, Will; Fishelson, James; Lott, Sam |
| Abstract: | Automated vehicle technology offers many opportunities to improve the quality of public transport. This chapter reviews key understanding and takeaways from an international workshop that took place in July 2016 at the Automated Vehicle Symposium in San Francisco, California, which focused on the ongoing development of shared automated mobility services and public transit. During the two-day workshop, speakers from the public and private sectors, academia, and nongovernmental organizations presented key findings from their work. Discussion centered around the implications of the convergence of shared mobility and vehicle automation on the future development of public transport, funding, pilots, and policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Shared mobility, automated vehicles, public transit |
| Date: | 2017–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt6589k2h1&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Abstract: | Shared mobility with pooled rides is the linchpin for leveraging vehicle automation and electrification to reduce congestion and emissions and to create livable urban communities. The sharing of rides is older than horse-and-buggy travel. Recent innovations make sharing easier, more convenient, and more efficient. Innovative mobility services premised on pooling can lower travel costs, mitigate congestion, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They also offer travelers more mobility choices between the traditional bookends of auto ownership and public transit. While the realm of shared mobility is vast, including shared bikes, scooters, and cars, the focus of this chapter is on pooled services—placing more people in a single vehicle. Doing so unlocks huge economic, social, and environmental benefits. The motivation for pooling is simple. First and foremost is economics. Cars are among the most underused capital assets in our economy, sitting empty 95 percent of the time and carrying one individual much of the remaining time. If a car were used more than 5 percent of the time, and if that car carried two, three, or four passengers, the cost per rider would drop dramatically. The benefits go well beyond cheaper mobility. Because the car would be carrying multiple riders who might otherwise be driving, there would also be fewer vehicles on the road, less parking space required, less air pollution, and reduced energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Given that the world has more than 1 billion cars and light trucks, the potential for major reductions in pollution and greenhouse gases is huge—in the United States and also most other countries. The transition to a future where many rides are shared is now possible. What remains to be seen is whether and under what conditions people will be willing to make the transition. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, shared mobility, ride-hailing, pooling |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt46p6n2sk&r=all |
| By: | Yang, Christopher; Zakerinia, Saleh; Ramea, Kalai; Miller, Marshall |
| Abstract: | Transportation is a major emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States accounting for 27% of the country’s emissions, second only to the electricity sector. As a result, reducing GHG emissions are essential for mitigating some of the most damaging potential impacts associated with climate change and because of the importance and relative size of the transportation sector, it would need to contribute a significant amount of emissions reduction. This report describes the development and use of an U.S. energy system optimization model (US-TIMES) in order to analyze the reductions in GHG emissions that can come about through policy targets. These policy targets induce technology investments and operation in order to satisfy the demand for energy services and environmental policy constraints (notably GHG emission targets). The model development focused on two key areas within the transportation sector, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles. In the light-duty space, we incorporated consumer choice elements into the energy system optimization framework through increasing consumer heterogeneity and adding non-monetary decision factors such as risk and fueling inconvenience. For heavy-duty vehicles, we adopt a segmentation approach and update vehicle cost and performance assumptions from our recent work. The model is used to project scenarios for low carbon futures from a reference scenario all the way to an 80% GHG reduction target. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Carbon taxes, Electric vehicles, Emissions trading, Energy consumption, Energy resources, Greenhouse gases, Heavy duty vehicles, Hybrid vehicles, Motor fuels, Policy analysis, Pollutants |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9cb5t3k4&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Totte, Hannah; Stocker, Adam |
| Abstract: | Transportation is arguably experiencing its most transformative revolution since the introduction of the automobile. Concerns over climate change and equity are converging with dramatic technological advances. Although these changes – including shared mobility and automation – are rapidly altering the mobility landscape, predictions about the future of transportation are complex, nuanced, and widely debated. California is required by law to renew the California Transportation Plan (CTP), updating its models and policy considerations to reflect industry changes every five years. This document is envisioned as a reference for modelers and decision makers. We aggregate current information and research on the state of key trends and emerging technologies/services, documented impacts on California’s transportation ecosystem, and future growth projections (as appropriate). During 2017, we reviewed an expanded list of 20 topics by referencing state agency publications, peer-reviewed journal articles, and forecast reports from consulting firms and think tanks. We followed transportation newsletters and media sources to track industry developments, and interviewed six experts to explore their opinions on the future of transportation. We consulted an advisory committee of over 50 representatives from local and state transportation agencies, who provided input throughout the project’s evolution. We also obtained feedback on our draft report from a panel of U.S. experts. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, California, Mobility |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt68g2h1qv&r=all |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline; Michaels, Julia |
| Abstract: | Automated vehicles (AVs) may significantly disrupt our transportation system, with potentially profound environmental effects. This policy brief outlines the mechanisms by which AVs may affect the environment through influencing travel demand, as well as the magnitude of these effects on vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Personal AVs and AV taxis (or ride-hailing services) are likely to increase VMT and GHG, exacerbate traffic congestion in city centers, and potentially lead to suburban sprawl. Electrification and vehicle sharing may reduce some of these environmental effects, but targeted policies must be put in place to ensure that these solutions are effective. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Greenhouse gases, Highway capacity, Intelligent vehicles, Travel behavior, Travel costs, Travel demand, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt27p0k44g&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam |
| Abstract: | Shared mobility—the shared use of a vehicle, bicycle, or other travel mode—is an innovative transportation strategy that enables users to have short-term access to a transportation mode on an as-needed basis (1). Shared mobility includes various service models and transportation modes that meet diverse traveler needs. Shared mobility can include roundtrip services (vehicle, bicycle, or other travel mode is returned to its origin); one-way station-based services (vehicle, bicycle, or other mode is returned to a different designated station location); and one-way free-floating services (vehicle, bicycle, or low-speed mode can be returned anywhere within a geographic area). |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Shared Mobility |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt8w77044h&r=all |
| By: | Muehlegger, Erich; Rapson, David |
| Abstract: | This research project explores the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market, including both Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and the sociodemographic characteristics of purchasing households. The authors use detailed micro-level data on PEV purchase records to answer two primary research questions. Their results confirm that low-income households exhibit a lower share of PEV purchases than they do for conventional, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Households with annual income less than $50,000 comprise 33 percent of ICE purchases and only 14 percent of PEVS. By comparison, high-income households earning more than $150,000 annually comprise only 12 percent of ICE purchases and 35 percent of PEV purchases over their sample period. Similarly, unsurprising patterns can be seen across ethnicities. For example, non-Hispanic Whites represent 41 percent of ICE purchases but 55 percent of PEV purchases, as compared to Hispanics (38 percent of ICE and 10 percent of PEVs) and African Americans (3 percent of ICEs and 2 percent of PEVS). These differences naturally raise questions about barriers to PEV adoption among low-income and minority ethnic populations. By comparing outcomes in the ICE, hybrid, and PEV markets across income and ethnic groups, the authors are able to test whether price discrimination and barriers to market access are higher in PEV markets for low-income and minority ethnic groups. The authors find that, overall, they are not, although there are mixed results for the used PEV market. In general, non-white, low-income populations face higher prices in the used PEV market, relative to a baseline, than they do in the new PEV market. While some people travel farther to buy used PEVs than they do to buy used ICE vehicles, there is not a pattern that would indicate systematic discrimination (e.g. Hispanics travel farther to buy used PHEVs but less far to buy used BEVs). While the authors admit that their empirical approach cannot control for all potential vehicle composition effects, the authors view their results as being most consistent with a market that provides access to all ethnicities and income groups. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0tn4m2tx&r=all |
| By: | Brendan Badia; Randall Berry; Ermin Wei |
| Abstract: | As demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is expanding, meeting the need for charging infrastructure, especially in urban areas, has become a critical issue. One method of adding charging stations is to install them at parking spots. This increases the value of these spots to EV drivers needing to charge their vehicles. However, there is a cost to constructing these spots and such spots may preclude drivers not needing to charge from using them, reducing the parking options for such drivers\color{black}. We look at two models for how decisions surrounding investment in charging stations on existing parking spots may be undertaken. First, we analyze two firms who compete over installing stations under government set mandates or subsidies. Given the cost of constructing spots and the competitiveness of the markets, we find it is ambiguous whether setting higher mandates or higher subsidies for spot construction leads to better aggregate outcomes. Second, we look at a system operator who faces uncertainty on the size of the EV market. If they are risk neutral, we find a relatively small change in the uncertainty of the EV market can lead to large changes in the optimal charging capacity. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1904.09967&r=all |
| By: | Turrentine, Thomas; Tal, Gil; Rapson, David |
| Abstract: | California is one of the first markets in the world to have a significant secondary market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which includes both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This study examines the status of the nascent secondary PEV market in California. The authors examine who purchases these vehicles and how used PEVs are utilized. They examine the role of PEV purchase incentives both via surveys of used PEV buyers and through econometric analysis of detailed micro data. Results suggests that California PEV buyers have significantly higher incomes than the average household. If California seeks to broaden the used PEV market, lower income buyers must be brought into the market. On this count, the used PEV market appears to be beneficial, attracting buyers with slightly lower incomes than in the new PEV market. Results also indicate that used PHEV owners (and, more precisely, short-range used PEV owners) are charging their vehicles less than they could. In addition, results show that early used PEV buyers have significant knowledge gaps, such as being unaware of new PEV purchase incentives, which reduce their ability to compare price options. Overall, the early used PEV buyers were satisfied with the PEV technology and would redo their purchase or buy another PEV. This bodes well for the future of the PEV market. High occupancy vehicle stickers were a powerful motivator for a subset of PHEV used buyers, perhaps due to the lack of new stickers being available at the time of and preceding the survey. Our econometric analysis shows that the presence of new BEV purchase subsidies correlates with a small net outflow of used PEVs to states that do not offer new BEV subsidies. If this modest exit of PEVs grows overtime, it could make it more difficult to achieve state level environmental goals, such as local pollution abatement or state-level GHG reduction targets. Our analysis finds that PEV sales to minority groups show no clear signs of market access discrimination in the new or used PEV markets. Finally, our findings show that PHEV and BEV markets and consumers operate differently from each other, suggesting the need to be careful about treating them identically in analysis and policy-formation. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8wj5b0hn&r=all |