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on Regulation |
| By: | John Wiseman (Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne); Stephanie Campbell (Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne); Fergus Green (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| Abstract: | Until its relatively sudden closure in March 2017, the Hazelwood Power Station in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley was the most carbon-intensive electricity generator in Australia. It became a symbol of Australia’s reliance on coal and an electoral battleground in the bitter political struggles over climate policy that have raged since the mid-2000s. The announcement by Hazelwood’s owners, French multinational power company, Engie, in late 2016 that it would be closing the plant for commercial reasons, therefore came as somewhat of a shock. We argue that Australia’s political and economic institutions help to explain the autonomous decision of Engie to close the plant, the short notice period, and the lack of pre-closure government transition policy. These institutions discourage long-term policymaking and encourage a disproportionate amount of vote-seeking activity directed at marginal electorates. Straightforward “vote-seeking” is however too simplistic an explanation of the transition policies announced at the time of the Hazelwood closure. Of particular relevance is the fact that, over the last few years, the transition away from coal and towards renewable energy has become a virtual inevitability in the Australian energy sector. One important outcome of this trend has been the shift in position of the Australian union movement towards advocacy for “just transition” policies, bringing it both closer to—and, in some cases, in alliance with—environmental groups. Absent institutional reform, the most likely means by which coal closures could move closer to “best practice” in Australia is through action by unions and environmental groups to mobilise institutional investors to pressure energy companies to adopt more worker- and community-friendly, “just transition” policies. The most plausible institutional reform path, given Australia’s existing political-economic institutions, would involve the direct regulation of companies’ transition obligations. Yet, the more interventionist the regulatory change, the greater the costs imposed on existing generators and the more politically contentious the reforms are likely to be. In this difficult policymaking environment, an important variable is likely to be the agency of civil society actors in making the politics of energy/climate policymaking more conducive to just transition-oriented regulatory reforms. Our case study has demonstrated that the positions of key civil society stakeholders in Australia’s energy debate, including unions, environment groups and to some extent business groups have been converging toward a “just”—or at least an orderly—transition as a dominant political narrative for substantive policies to improve the transition arrangements in the Australian energy sector. Strengthening and perhaps formalising these alliances will improve the incentives for political parties to invest in long-term policies in the energy sector. |
| Keywords: | Australia, coal transitions, just transitions, regional policy, energy policy |
| JEL: | O38 R11 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:ccepwp:1708&r=reg |
| By: | Christoph Boehringer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Jan Schneider (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Marco Springmann (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In response to anthropogenic climate change, developed countries have committed themselves to raise 100 billion USD a year from 2020 onwards for addressing the needs of developing countries. In this paper, we investigate the economic and CO2 emission impacts of four alternative options for raising climate funds from public sources in developed countries: CO2 emission prices, wires charges on electricity consumption, a tax on international transport services, and the removal of fossil fuel subsidies. We find that these four options do not only induce very different global costs to raise given amounts of climate funds but have quite diverging implications for the cost incidence between developed and developing countries. Likewise, the global CO2 emission impacts of alternative fund-raising policies differ a lot. |
| Keywords: | climate finance; computable general equilibrium; green climate fund |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:406&r=reg |
| By: | Fouquet, Roger |
| Abstract: | This paper draws lessons from long run trends in energy markets for energy and climate policy. An important lesson is that consumer responses to energy markets change with economic development. The British experience suggests that income elasticities1 of demand for energy services have tended to follow an inverse-U shape curve. Thus, at low levels of economic development, energy service consumption tends to be quite responsive to per capita income changes; at mid-levels, consumption tends to be very responsive to changes in income per capita; and, at high levels, consumption is less responsive to income changes. The paper also highlights the importance of formulating integrated energy service policies to reduce risks to developing countries of locking-in to carbon intensive infrastructure or behaviour. Without guidance and incentives, rapid economic development is likely to lock consumers into high energy service prices in the long run and bind the economy onto a high energy intensity trajectory with major long run economic and environmental impacts. Thus, effective energy service policies in periods of rapid development, such as in China and India at present, are crucial for the long run prosperity of the economy and their future ability to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. |
| Keywords: | energy history; energy transitions; economic development; climate policy |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2016–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:67785&r=reg |
| By: | Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Roubaud, David; Farhani, Sahbi |
| Abstract: | This study explores the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in the so-called European Union 5 (EU-5) countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) for the 1985-2016 period. In doing so, we employ a carbon emission function to investigate the environmental Kuznets curve phenomenon, which describes a relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. The empirical results confirm the existence of an N-shaped relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in the EU-5 countries. We incorporate additional variables such as renewable electricity consumption, trade openness, natural resource abundance, and energy innovation to augment the carbon emission function. Renewable electricity consumption, natural resources, and energy innovation improve environmental quality, while trade openness and the interaction between economic growth and renewable electricity consumption exert a positive impact on CO2 emissions. This study is novel in that it presents an interaction between economic growth and renewable electricity consumption. We also confirm the need for renewable energy regulations related to increasing renewable sources and promoting energy innovation to reduce the negative effects of energy and fossil energy resources on environmental degradation. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Renewable Electricity, Natural Resources, Environment |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2017–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:82252&r=reg |
| By: | Simone Tagliapietra |
| Abstract: | The issue The European Union energy system is becoming greener and more efficient, but its most polluting component – coal – continues to provide a quarter of its electricity. This is bad for the climate, the environment and human health. A number of EU countries continue to support coal politically for energy security and socio-economic reasons. The energy security argument is understandable, but the feasibility of the energy transition away from coal should not be doubted. Several countries have already successfully phased out coal without compromising energy security or competitiveness. The socio-economic argument is illusory. Coal mining employment in Europe does not represent a sizable issue either at national or regional level. Policy challenge The EU should propose that its member countries speedily phase out coal. At the same time, it should put in place a scheme to guarantee the social welfare of coal miners who stand to lose their jobs. The EU does not need to establish a new fund for this; it only needs to make better use of the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund (EGF). For the post-2020 period, the EGF should be transformed into a ‘European Globalisation and Climate Adjustment Fund’ with a higher budget overall, of which €150 million per year should be used to support coal mining regions. By mobilising 0.1 percent of its total budget, the EU could provide a significant incentive to coal-reliant member states to phase out coal, generating substantial benefits for the climate, the environment and human health. |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polbrf:22918&r=reg |
| By: | M. Indra al Irsyada; Anthony Halog; Rabindra Nepal |
| Abstract: | Failures of countries in setting and achieving renewable energy targets are prevalent, raising uncertainty about the overall contribution of renewable energy to global emission reductions. Lack of policy and incorrect modelling analysis are among the sources of the failures. Thus understanding these two sources is crucial to improve confidence about renewables. We assess errors in the projections of renewable energy capacity and production in the United States and European Union countries, which have high commitments to green energy supply. Our results show that solar energy has the lowest uncertainty due to having the most achievable projections of capacity and production. On the other hand, other renewables may entail attractive policies, and further research is needed related to advancing reliable technology and accurate weather predictions. Our findings also provide ranges of projection uncertainty of six renewable energy technologies and, at the same time, draw attention to ways to rectify the dominant errors in the renewable energy projections. |
| Keywords: | Projection error, commitment, technical issues, modeling and policy |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-74&r=reg |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri (Dept. of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business); Nikitas Pittis (University of Piraeus, Greece); Panagiotis Samartzis; Nikolaos Englezos; Andreas Papandreou |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on different types of ambiguity that affect climate change regulation. In particular, we analyze the effect of the interactions among three types of agents, namely, the decision maker (DM), the experts and the society, on the probabilistic properties of green-house gas (GHG) emissions and the formation of environmental policy, under two types of ambiguity: "deferential ambiguity" and "preferential ambiguity". Deferential ambiguity refers to the uncertainty that DM faces concerning to which expert's forecast (scenario) to defer. Preferential ambiguity stems from the potential inability of DM to correctly discern the society's preferences about the desired change of GHG emissions. This paper shows that the existence of deferential and preferential ambiguities have significant effects on GHG emissions regulation. |
| Keywords: | decision making on climate change, ambiguity, deep uncertainty, deferential ambiguity, preferential ambiguity, tail risks of environmental-policy variables. |
| JEL: | D8 D80 D81 D83 D |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:1706&r=reg |
| By: | Edward Oughton (Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Moving from 4G LTE to 5G is an archetypal example of technological change. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) who fail to adapt will likely lose market share. Hitherto, qualitative frameworks have been put forward to aid with business model adaptation for MNOs facing on the one hand increasing traffic growth, while on the other declining revenues. In this analysis, we provide a complementary scenario-based assessment of 5G infrastructure strategies in relation to mobile traffic growth. This information is required by commercial players in the digital ecosystem for strategy development, and can support management decision-making. Developing and applying an open-source modelling framework, we quantify the uncertainty associated with future demand and supply for a hypothetical MNO, using Britain as a case study example. We find that spectrum strategies require the least amount of capital expenditure and are capable of meeting baseline demand until approximately 2025, after which more spectrum capacity will be required. Alternatively, small cell deployments provide significant capacity but at considerable cost, and hence are likely only in the densest locations, unless MNOs can boost revenues by capturing value from the Internet of Things (IoT), Smart Cities or other technological developments dependent on digital connectivity. |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jbs:wpaper:201704&r=reg |
| By: | Florian Knobloch; Hector Pollitt; Unnada Chewpreecha; Jean-Francois Mercure |
| Abstract: | We take a simulation-based approach for modelling ten scenarios, aiming at near-zero global CO2 emissions by 2050 in the residential heating sector, using different combinations of policy instruments. Their effectiveness highly depends on behavioural decision-making by households, especially in a context of deep decarbonisation and rapid transformation. We therefore use the non-equilibrium bottom-up model FTT:Heat, which allows to simulate policy-induced technology transitions in a context of inertia and bounded rationality. Results show that a decarbonisation of residential heating is achievable until 2050, but requires substantial policy efforts from 2020 onwards. Due to long average lifetimes of heating equipment, the transition needs decades rather than years. Policy mixes are projected to be more effective for driving the market of new technologies, compared to the reliance on a carbon tax as the only policy instrument. In combination with subsidies for renewables, near-zero decarbonisation can be achieved with a residential carbon tax of 50-150Euro/tCO2. The policy-induced technology transition would increase heating costs faced by households initially, but lead to net savings in the medium term. From a global perspective, the decarbonisation largely depends on policy-implementation in Europe, North-America, China and Russia. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1710.11019&r=reg |
| By: | Nicholas J. Sanders; Ryan Sandler |
| Abstract: | Personal automobile emissions are a major source of urban air pollution. Many U.S. states control emissions through mandated vehicle inspections and repairs. But there is little empirical evidence directly linking mandated inspections, maintenance, and local air pollution levels. To test for a link, we estimate the contemporaneous effect of inspections on local air quality. We use day-to-day, within-county variation in the number of vehicles repaired and recertified after failing an initial emissions inspection, with individual-level data from 1998–2012 from California’s inspection program. Additional re-inspections of pre-1985 model year vehicles reduce local carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, and particulate matter levels, while re-inspections of newer vehicles with more modern engine technology have no economically significant effect on air pollution. This suggests emissions inspections have become less effective at reducing local air pollution as more high-polluting vehicles from the 1970s and 1980s leave the road, and provides an example of how the social efficiency of programs can change under improving technologies. We also estimate the importance of station quality, using a metric devised for California’s new STAR certification program. We show re-inspections of older vehicles conducted by low quality inspection stations do not change air pollution, while inspections at high quality stations have a moderate effect on pollution concentrations, which suggests the potential for ineffective monitoring at low quality inspection stations. We find little effect on ambient ozone levels, regardless of station quality or vehicle age. |
| JEL: | Q52 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23966&r=reg |