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on Regulation |
| By: | Amel GRAA (Djillali Liabes University); Ismail ZIANE (Djillali Liabes University); Farid BENHAMIDA (Djilali Liabes University) |
| Abstract: | Electricity demand forecasting has become a main field of research in electrical engineering. The effect of the unexpected economic fluctuations and high dependency of the power generation system on the energy resource, results in an electrical energy cost increase and demand fluctuation, so forecasting for electricity market is an predict system. The power industry requires forecasts not only from the production perspective but also from a financial viewpoint. This paper proposes a set of forecasting methods used for the electric energy demand. Similar day approach, trend method, econometric model, end-use approach are the most frequently used techniques for energy forecasting studies. Finally, authors discuss advantages and disadvantages of each method based on the theoretical background. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting approach, load demand, model section, electricity market, similar day method. |
| JEL: | C51 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3105420&r=reg |
| By: | Kyle Wilson (University of Arizona, Department of Economics, McClelland Hall 401, PO Box 210108, Tucson, AZ 85721-0108); |
| Abstract: | Access to the internet is critical for participating in modern society, yet, 17% of Americans lack access to broadband internet, according to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). A key objective of the FCC is to promote policies that advance the availability of quality telecommunications services across the United States. To that end, the FCC has recently secured funding to provide subsidies to internet service providers on a massive scale, and has been given considerable flexibility in the distribution of these funds. The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of internet service providers' decisions about entry into new markets and upgrades to existing infrastructure, and to use this information to provide policy recommendations about how to target subsidies in order to best accomplish the longstanding goal of Universal Service. To do this, I develop a dynamic model, which encapsulates potential entrants' decisions to enter new markets as a low-speed or high-speed provider, as well as incumbents' decisions to upgrade their infrastructure, maintain service, or exit markets. I then estimate this model using data from the National Broadband Map, a recent initiative to precisely track availability of broadband internet across the United States. Then, I use this model to perform counterfactuals, which generate predictions of firm behaviors under a variety of proposed subsidy structures. |
| Keywords: | broadband internet; subsidies |
| JEL: | L13 L96 L98 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1509&r=reg |
| By: | Faddy Ardian (Ecole Polytechnique); Silvia Concettini (Ecole Polytechnique); Anna Creti (UP9 - Université Paris 9, Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine, Ecole Polytechnique) |
| Abstract: | The literature demonstrates the likely reduction of wholesale electricity prices due to a larger penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). When markets are organized as two or more inter-connected sub-markets within a larger power market the final impact of increasing RES production may be less straightforward given the presence of network constraints. We tests this phenomenon by analyzing the impact of RES production on the probability of congestion and on the size of congestion cost in Italy. Using a database with hourly observations for a five year period we estimate two econometric models on five zonal pairings: a multinomial logit model for the occurrence and direction of congestion and a three stage least square model for the size of congestion costs. The analysis suggests that the effect of a larger local wind and solar supply is to decrease the probability of suffering congestion in entry and to increase the probability of causing a congestion in exit compared to no congestion case. Increasing hydroelectric production has a similar effect. These results hold for both importing and exporting regions, but importing regions are less likely to cause congestion in exit, therefore the installation of new RES capacity in these zones may have a positive effects in terms of flow balance between regions. Concerning the cost level, a larger local RES supply seems to push the congestion cost towards negative values as it decreases the marginal cost for balancing the system. This is true for all zones in the case of explicit congestion cost, but it is only verified in importing regions in the case of implicit congestion cost. This result suggests that the increase of RES production should be promoted in importing zones, but the overall growth should be controlled in order to avoid congestion in the opposite direction. |
| Keywords: | Electricity markets,Congestion, Zonal prices, Renewable production |
| Date: | 2015–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01218543&r=reg |
| By: | Francesco Drago (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); Friederike Mengel (University of Essex and Maastricht University); Christian Traxler (Hertie School of Governance, Berlin, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the spread of compliance behavior in neighborhood networks involving over 500,000 households in Austria. We exploit random variation from a field experiment which varied the content of mailings sent to potential evaders of TV license fees. Our data reveal a strong treatment spillover: ‘untreated’ households, who were not part of the experimental sample, are more likely to switch from evasion to compliance in response to the mailings received by their network neighbors. We analyze the spillover within a model of communication in networks based on DeGroot (1974). Consistent with the model, we find that (i) the spillover increases with the treated households’ eigenvector centrality and that (ii) local concentration of equally treated households produces a lower spillover. These findings carry important implications for enforcement policies. |
| Keywords: | neighborhood networks; social learning; spillover; evasion; field experiment. |
| JEL: | D8 H26 Z13 |
| Date: | 2015–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:419&r=reg |
| By: | Dijkstra, Pieter; Haan, Marco; Mulder, Machiel (Groningen University) |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gro:rugsom:15004-eef&r=reg |