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on Regulation |
By: | Victoria Umanskaya; Charles Mason; Edward Barbier |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:000240:24000063&r=reg |
By: | Niels ANGER; Jayant SATHAYE |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:000238:23800003&r=reg |
By: | Aitor Ciarreta; Ainhoa Zarraga |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:000240:24000009&r=reg |
By: | Marie Bessec; Julien Fouquau; Sophie Meritet |
Abstract: | The French wholesale market is set to expand in the next few years under European pressure and national decisions. In this paper, we assess the forecasting ability of several classes of time series models for electricity wholesale spot prices at a day-ahead horizon in France. Electricity spot prices display a strong seasonal pattern, particularly in France given the high share of electric heating in housing during winter time. To deal with this pattern, we implement a double temporal segmentation of the data. For each trading period and season, we use a large number of specifications based on market fundamentals: linear regressions, Markov-switching models, threshold models with a smooth transition. An extensive evaluation on French data shows that modeling each season independently leads to better results. Among non-linear models, MS models designed to capture the sudden and fast-reverting spikes in the price dynamics yield more accurate forecasts. Finally, pooling forecasts gives more reliable results. |
Keywords: | Electricity spot prices, forecasting, regime-switching. |
JEL: | C22 C24 Q47 |
Date: | 2014–09–25 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-588&r=reg |
By: | Guillaume Monchambert (ENS Cachan - École Normale Supérieure de Cachan - École normale supérieure (ENS) - Cachan); André De Palma (ENS Cachan - École Normale Supérieure de Cachan - École normale supérieure (ENS) - Cachan) |
Abstract: | This paper addresses the two-way implication between punctuality level of public transport and commuter behavior. We consider a modal competition between public transport and an alternative mode. Commuters may choose different strategies to minimize their journey cost. In particular, when the bus becomes less punctual, more potential bus users arrive late at the bus stop. We show that punctuality increases with the alternative mode fare through a price effect. This specificity can be viewed as an extension of the Mohring effect. In the general case, the punctuality of a bus is lower at equilibrium than at optimum. According to the alternative mode operating cost, the bus attracts too many (small cost) or too few (large cost) customers. |
Keywords: | public transport; reliability; duopoly; welfare; Mohring e ect; schedule delay |
Date: | 2014–02–15 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00827972&r=reg |
By: | Kenichi Matsumoto |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:000240:24000038&r=reg |
By: | Andreas Löschel; Vincent M. Otto |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:000240:24000034&r=reg |