|
on Public Finance |
| By: | Michael Barczay; Shafik Hebous; Tom Zimmermann |
| Abstract: | This paper studies heterogeneity in the pass-through of Germany's temporary VAT reduction in July 2020. Using confidential product-level CPI data, we document substantial dispersion in consumer-price responses: nearly half of standard-rate products show no consumer-price change, while 30 percent exhibit full pass-through. Lower-income households experienced somewhat larger proportional price declines than higher-income households. Using an inverse-optimality consistency test, we show that, once the full revenue loss is considered, the reform cannot be rationalized by any progressive weighting of gains across income groups. |
| Keywords: | VAT, tax incidence, fiscal stimulus, pass-through |
| JEL: | H21 H22 H23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12922 |
| By: | Lee, Gyuchan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how consumers respond to different forms of soda tax information under tax-inclusive pricing. Using a randomized pre–post discrete choice experiment (DCE) in China, we isolate informational effects while holding tax-inclusive prices constant. Difference-in-differences comparisons and mixed logit estimates show that informing consumers that the displayed soda price includes a soda tax reduces regular soda demand relative to a price-only control group, while explicit disclosure of the tax amount produces larger demand reductions and higher implied price elasticity. The estimates suggest that tax information primarily reduces the perceived attractiveness of regular soda, whereas explicit tax disclosure increases price sensitivity. These findings suggest that tax-inclusive pricing alone may not ensure full tax salience and that disclosure design may complement corrective taxation beyond the standard price effect. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404547 |
| By: | Michael A. Clemens |
| Abstract: | Governments traditionally use quotas to limit immigration, but the US government has recently proposed taxes on immigration, focused on high-skill foreign workers. The effects of a high-skill immigration tax hinge on price elasticities of demand and supply that the literature has rarely measured. I estimate key response elasticities to evaluate the effects of a $100, 000 tax on Optional Practical Training (OPT) work permits, the largest single channel through which high-skill immigrants enter the US economy. Depending on the incidence of the tax, evaluation requires estimating the price elasticity of demand for US university degrees with the OPT option, the price elasticity of the supply of OPT placements by universities, or the price elasticity of US employers' demand for OPT workers. In all incidence scenarios OPT starts for a given level of international enrollment fall by roughly a fifth or more, and by as much as four fifths under university incidence. The resulting decline in OPT opportunities would reduce international student enrollment at universities, costing them hundreds of millions to over four billion dollars a year in net margin. I illustrate the need for further research on the relevant response elasticities by showing that plausible parameters yield a zero or even negative net fiscal impact of an expanded $100, 000 tax on H-1B workers. The need for better models and estimates will grow with the prevalence of immigration taxes. |
| Keywords: | Optional Practical Training, H-1B, immigration, immigrant, labor, tax, fee, payment, duty, tariff, skill, talent, foreign, student, graduate, college, higher ed, university, demand, supply, elasticity, STEM |
| JEL: | F22 H22 I23 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26217 |
| By: | Johannes Gallé; Rodrigo Oliveira; Daniel Overbeck; Nadine Riedel; Edson R. Severnini |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first comprehensive evidence on how firms in an emerging economy respond to carbon taxation in the context of an early-phase policy, highlighting how firms adjust when incentives are modest but signals about future regulation are strong. We study the announcement and early implementation of South Africa’s 2019 carbon tax using detailed administrative firm-level data from 2011-2021. Employing a matched difference-in-differences design and event-study models, we trace dynamic firm responses. Contrary to concerns that carbon taxes might hinder growth or employment, we find no negative effects on firm performance or jobs. Leveraging variation in firms’ exposure to the tax through temporary tax-free allowances, we find that firms facing higher effective tax rates increased sales, employment, capital, and capital depreciation in anticipation of the policy, reflecting resolution of regulatory uncertainty and adjustments to mitigate stranded asset risks. While we detect no measurable reduction in emissions — likely due to anticipatory behavior — the results show that early-phase carbon pricing can shape firm behavior without harming economic outcomes, even in low- and middle-income settings. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, carbon tax, firm performance, employment outcomes |
| JEL: | H23 Q52 Q58 O13 O55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12953 |