nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2026–04–13
nine papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura, Tartu Ülikool


  1. A Capacity-Based Theory of Complexity Control in Megaprojects: Structural Demands, Regulatory Capacity, and Ashby's Law of Requisite Variety By Hümmer, Matthias
  2. Beyond ‘Not in my electoral Year’: Why do some elected officials oppose renewable energy projects? By Hugo Delcayre; Sébastien Bourdin
  3. Assessing the distributional impacts of development interventionsthe Inequality Marker By Miguel Niño-Zarazúa; Anda David; Rawane Yasser; Christian Morabito
  4. Social network analysis of conservation and one health governance in Madagascar By Karine L. Mahefarisoa; Hajaniaina A. Ratsimbazafy; Ellen Decaestecker; Leo Delpy; Jean Hugé; Nicolas Antoine-Moussiaux; Raf Aerts
  5. California’s SB 375 Falls Short in Streamlining Transit-Oriented Development, But this Could be Fixed By Volker, Jamey; Affolter, Bailey; Marantz, Nick; Pike, Susan; DeLeon, Graham
  6. Climate finance and the legitimacy machine: insights from the Green Climate Fund in South Africa By Barnes, Jonathan; Perkins, Richard
  7. No More Grading: Incentive Compatible Peer Assessment in a Project-Based Course By Ligon, Ethan
  8. Globalization in Water Infrastructure: A Network of Public-Private Strategic Alliances By Yasaman Sarabi; Paola Tubaro
  9. Financial development and renewable energy technology: The heterogeneous role of energy endowment, market environment and policy support in Chinese provinces By Danqi Wei; Fayyaz Ahmad; Nabila Abid; Amber Gul

  1. By: Hümmer, Matthias
    Abstract: Megaproject research has shown repeatedly that large, technologically demanding, and politically exposed projects are prone to cost escalation, delay, and governance breakdown. Existing project complexity research has produced influential classifications of structural complexity, uncertainty, and stakeholder interaction, but it is less precise about when projects pass from difficult coordination into loss of controllability. This article develops a capacity-based theory of complexity control through a theory-elaboration reconstruction and extension of Huemmer (2020) in dialogue with project complexity, megaproject, and project resilience scholarship. The article argues that complexity becomes critical when the structural variety generated by the project system exceeds the regulatory variety available through the 4M architecture of human, machine, method, and material. Ashby’s (1956, 1958) law of requisite variety is used not as a total theory of megaproject governance, but as a cybernetic condition of controllability. On that basis, the article explains how capacity deficits create vulnerability, why overload propagates across interfaces, how complexity shifts from latent to acute states over the project lifecycle, and why some projects may reach a point of no return at which ordinary control routines no longer recover stability. The contribution is fourfold: reconstruction of a German-language framework for an international audience; clarification of the Ashby-based mechanism; refinement of the 4M architecture as a proto-operational logic; and derivation of propositions, an illustrative diagnostic, and a research agenda. The article is conceptual rather than empirical and should be read as reconstruction, extension, and mechanism clarification rather than ex nihilo theory creation.
    Date: 2026–03–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3hdn5_v1
  2. By: Hugo Delcayre (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Sébastien Bourdin (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School)
    Abstract: This study aimed to examine the reasons behind the wait-and-see and resistant attitudes of local elected officials regarding energy transition projects. Although there is consensus on the importance of renewable energy in combating climate change, its implementation at the local level often encounters opposition from several actors, including elected officials. This study identified the internal, external, and personal factors that influence this opposition by conducting semi-structured interviews with the French officials and stakeholders involved in the energy transition and by analysing the local and regional press. Our findings indicate that political strategies, regulatory complexities, and personal beliefs play significant roles in shaping officials' decisions regarding energy transition projects. Furthermore, by proposing a typology of elected officials according to their modes of opposition, we offer insights to promote effective and sustainable local energy transitions.
    Keywords: Agency, NIMEY, Social acceptability, Political resistance, Local authorities, Energy transition
    Date: 2025–07–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05568670
  3. By: Miguel Niño-Zarazúa (SOAS - School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London [London]); Anda David (AFD - Agence française de développement); Rawane Yasser (AFD - Agence française de développement); Christian Morabito
    Abstract: Persistent economic and social inequalities constrain the inclusive development of nations. The internationally agreed Sustainable Development Goal 10 (SDG10) and its targets, aim to address these constraints through the promotion of equalising policies. This paper tests the validity of the Inequality Marker and Distributional Impact Assessment (DIA) tools that have been developed to assess the contribution of development projects to inequality reduction using as case studies four AFD and European Commission funded projects in Benin, Djibouti-Ethiopia, Uganda, and Vietnam. The DIA analyses have been carried out in two cases: in Benin (ex-post) and Uganda (ex-ante). Overall, the study shows how the Inequality Marker and DIA methodology can provide relevant information on the potential contribution of development projects to inequality reduction. The study identifies critical issues for the implementation of the DIA analysis that reflect both organisational constraints in donor agencies internal procedures, and external contextual factors. The study also provides a set of policy recommendations to mitigate these threats.
    Keywords: inequality, Official Development Assistance, development cooperation, development finance institutions, bottom 40%, SDGs
    Date: 2025–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05489071
  4. By: Karine L. Mahefarisoa (KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); Hajaniaina A. Ratsimbazafy (ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles = Free University of Brussels); Ellen Decaestecker (KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); Leo Delpy (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jean Hugé (ULB - Université libre de Bruxelles = Free University of Brussels, Open University of the Netherlands [Heerlen], VUB - Vrije Universiteit Brussel [Bruxelles], UHasselt - Hasselt University); Nicolas Antoine-Moussiaux (Faculté de Médecine Vétérinaire [Liège]); Raf Aerts (KU Leuven - Catholic University of Leuven = Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)
    Abstract: Madagascar, a globally recognised biodiversity hotspot, faces escalating biodiversity loss and zoonotic disease risks. Weak response systems and fragmented governance further exacerbate these threats. This study identifies key conservation and health actors and analyses their connections to understand decision-making and information flow. The findings emphasise the need to integrate One Health into conservation strategies to address interconnected public health and biodiversity challenges. Following the Laumann-Marsden-Prensky framework, a social network analysis (SNA) survey was conducted between March 14 and June 24, 2022. The study involved 30 senior leaders (≥5 years experience) in biodiversity conservation and health in Madagascar. Key network metrics, indegree, outdegree, and eigenvector centrality, identified influential actors, while network density and centralisation assessed structural cohesion. Participants listed collaborators in conservation and health projects and funding sources. The strength of One Health integration and interaction was quantified. Among 287 identified actors, 54.4 % are international entities. SNA shows that foreign organisations dominate collaboration and funding networks in conservation and public health governance, while local government bodies have limited involvement. Only a few stakeholders have effectively integrated the One Health approach into their conservation and health governance practices. These findings highlight a reliance on international actors, primarily due to funding access, with limited local participation. While international support provides crucial resources, greater national and local leadership is essential for the sustainable implementation of One Health. This study provides insights to enhance local involvement in conservation governance.
    Abstract: Madagascar, reconnu mondialement comme un point chaud de biodiversité, fait face à une perte croissante de biodiversité ainsi qu'à des risques accrus de maladies zoonotiques. Des systèmes de réponse faibles et une gouvernance fragmentée aggravent encore ces menaces. Cette étude identifie les principaux acteurs de la conservation et de la santé et analyse leurs connexions afin de comprendre les processus de prise de décision et les flux d'information. Les résultats soulignent la nécessité d'intégrer l'approche One Health dans les stratégies de conservation afin de répondre aux défis interconnectés de la santé publique et de la biodiversité. En suivant le cadre de Laumann-Marsden-Prensky, une enquête d'analyse de réseau social (SNA) a été menée entre le 14 mars et le 24 juin 2022. L'étude a impliqué 30 dirigeants expérimentés (≥ 5 ans d'expérience) dans les domaines de la conservation de la biodiversité et de la santé à Madagascar. Des indicateurs clés du réseau — indegree, outdegree et centralité d'eigenvecteur — ont permis d'identifier les acteurs influents, tandis que la densité et la centralisation du réseau ont servi à évaluer la cohésion structurelle. Les participants ont listé leurs collaborateurs dans les projets de conservation et de santé ainsi que leurs sources de financement. Le niveau d'intégration et d'interaction de l'approche One Health a également été quantifié. Parmi les 287 acteurs identifiés, 54, 4 % sont des entités internationales. L'analyse de réseau social montre que les organisations étrangères dominent les réseaux de collaboration et de financement dans la gouvernance de la conservation et de la santé publique, tandis que les institutions gouvernementales locales sont peu impliquées. Seul un petit nombre d'acteurs a effectivement intégré l'approche One Health dans leurs pratiques de gouvernance de la conservation et de la santé. Ces résultats mettent en évidence une forte dépendance envers les acteurs internationaux, principalement en raison de leur accès aux financements, ainsi qu'une participation locale limitée. Bien que le soutien international fournisse des ressources essentielles, un leadership national et local plus important est indispensable pour assurer la mise en œuvre durable de l'approche One Health. Cette étude offre ainsi des pistes pour renforcer l'implication locale dans la gouvernance de la conservation.
    Keywords: Health system governance, Social network analysis, Cross-sector collaboration, Integration, Environmental governance, Stakeholder engagement, One health
    Date: 2025–06–16
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05125241
  5. By: Volker, Jamey; Affolter, Bailey; Marantz, Nick; Pike, Susan; DeLeon, Graham
    Abstract: In California and many other states, new development projects must undergo an environmental impact analysis as part of the approval process. In California, this happens through the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). While CEQA is designed to ensure thoughtful consideration of environmental effects, it can also invite litigation that can delay or derail projects, even for projects that may benefit the environment, such as transit-oriented development (TOD). TOD aims to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and its associated impacts, such as greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), by locating housing, jobs, and amenities near high-frequency public transit. But when environmental review requirements delay or discourage TOD, the result can be to push development to less accessible areas, leading to more driving, more emissions, and fewer housing options— undermining the very goals CEQA was meant to protect.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2026–04–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9pg836pq
  6. By: Barnes, Jonathan; Perkins, Richard
    Abstract: The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is the principal multilateral mechanism for channelling climate finance to developing countries. This paper examines the processes through which GCF projects are developed, opening the ‘black box’ of project development to better understand the uneven production of different kinds of climate finance. Empirically, the analysis addresses a puzzle in South Africa: while the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) had secured approval for three projects by 2019, it was not until 2025 that the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) secured approval for its first project. To account for this divergence, the paper brings assembling thinking into dialogue with the concept of legitimacy. A key contribution is to introduce and operationalise the ‘legitimacy machine’ to theorise how assemblages become productive. This abstract machine transforms disparate components into sufficiently legitimate entities to advance policy objectives. Legitimacy thus acts as a mechanism for establishing and strengthening connections, unlocking relational power, and enabling the flow of authority, resources, and material effects. The paper demonstrates how the production of climate finance in South Africa reflects contrasting processes of legitimacy-making in the pursuit of heterogeneous desires. DBSA rapidly mobilised private finance by legitimating the South African economy as an investible opportunity, while shielding projects from critique through decentralised delivery. SANBI, by contrast, deliberately pursued a slower, more inclusive approach – shaped by acute scarcity of adaptation finance and the political challenge of narrowing multiple project ideas without alienating ‘deserving’ publics. Its commitment to safeguarding its own institutional legitimacy outweighed the imperative of rapid approval. These findings nuance debates on the transformational potential of the GCF and its role in the top-down financialization of recipient countries. They also underscore the need for pragmatic and differentiated approaches to supporting projects, recognising that distinct forms of multilateral finance require both rapid and patient pathways.
    Keywords: assemblage; climate finance; green climate fund; legitimacy; South Africa; transformation
    JEL: Q54 F30
    Date: 2026–03–26
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137480
  7. By: Ligon, Ethan
    Abstract: We describe a system for grading collaborative student work that hasbeen developed and refined over eight years of a project-basedundergraduate course. Students complete four team projects persemester, with teams reassigned each round. After each project, everystudent evaluates other teams' deliverables, assesses their ownteammates' contributions, and predicts the scores they themselves willreceive. These three streams of assessment data are combined usingsingular value decomposition (SVD) applied to residualized evaluationmatrices. Residualization removes evaluator-specific biases (thetendency to rate generously or harshly); SVD then extracts thedominant latent quality axis from the bias-corrected data, weightingquestions by their informativeness. Scores are aggregated via mediansfor robustness to outlier evaluators. Each student's composite gradereflects five components: team quality, individual contribution asassessed by teammates, evaluator discrimination (rewarding carefulassessment of others), and two measures of self-assessment accuracy(penalizing the gap between predicted and actual peer ratings). Wemap composite scores to letter grades using an anchor-point methodthat keys grade boundaries to the median performance of the top fivestudents, spacing bands at one-third standard deviation intervals. The system also feeds assessment information forward into teamcomposition. Teams are formed via a stratified round-robin algorithmthat spreads technical skill evenly across groups; for subsequentprojects, self-reported skill is replaced by peer-assessed skill. Aconflict-avoidance mechanism uses "would you work with this personagain" responses to keep incompatible students apart. We present themathematical foundations in enough detail for replication, discussincentive properties (robustness to strategic manipulation, encouragement of honest and thoughtful evaluation), and illustrate theprocedure with a worked numerical example.
    Keywords: Education, incentive-compatible, peer assessment, project-based learning, ai-proof education, grading
    Date: 2026–04–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt2183z6g8
  8. By: Yasaman Sarabi (HWU - Heriot-Watt University [Edinburgh]); Paola Tubaro (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Water is a key sector with major repercussions on health, the natural environment, and the economy. Public ownership and control of water infrastructures are the norm in most countries. Yet some private water companies emerged as early as the nineteenth century. In the last few decades, many governments, especially in developing countries, have sought the involvement of the private sector. This work contributes to the extant literature by developing a multi-disciplinary framework to look at private participation in the sector in terms of the overall trends of governments and companies' tendencies to form strategic alliances on water projects. In this study, the World Bank database on Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) is used and Social Network Analysis and GLM are implemented as analytical tools. This study finds that alliances between governments and companies on PPI projects are positively impacted by positional and relational embeddedness. Furthermore, governments and companies with a shared language and those that are geographically proximate are more likely to engage in PPI projects. A key policy finding is that on average, countries engaged in more PPI projects have a higher Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 (Clean Water & Sanitation for All) category score.
    Keywords: Private Participation in Infrastructure, Water infrastructures, Social Network Analysis, Interorganizational Relationships, Public-Private Partnerships
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05089203
  9. By: Danqi Wei (Lanzhou University); Fayyaz Ahmad (Lanzhou University); Nabila Abid (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Amber Gul (Sichuan Agricultural University)
    Abstract: The advancement of renewable energy an essential stage toward achieving a low-carbon energy transition, with finance sector playing a significant role in this process. This study analyzes the impact of financial development on renewable energy technology innovation across 30 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2019, focusing on key financial dimensions such as banks, bonds, stocks, and foreign direct investment. The research indicates that financial development significantly enhances innovation in renewable energy technology. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the inherent advantage of renewable energy resources impedes the pace of substitution for renewable energy technology innovation, while more market-oriented regions can more easily occupy the high value-added renewable energy technology innovation. The development pace of renewable energy technology innovation varies across regions, influenced by distinct renewable energy strategies. Foreign direct investment has produced contrary effects. The moderation test indicates that both investment-based and cost-based environmental regulations enhance the positive effect of financial capital on renewable energy technology innovation. The results establish a theoretical foundation for advancing renewable energy technology innovation and offer practical insights for facilitating the low-carbon transition in developing economies.
    Keywords: China, Environmental regulation, Renewable energy technology innovation, Financial development, Low carbon energy transition
    Date: 2025–03–21
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05568595

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