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on Project, Program and Portfolio Management |
| By: | Abigail Opokua Asare (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the success of prior aid projects affects the performance of subsequent ones based on a study of World Bank projects in Africa. While existing research has shown that aid effectiveness depends on macroeconomic conditions, institutional quality, and managerial capacity, far less is known about whether project success generates localized improvements that extend beyond its immediate boundaries. Using geocoded data and independent evaluation ratings of World Bank projects, this study finds that local success does not systematically translate into higher performance for subsequent projects. In fact, it can sometimes make it less likely for future projects to achieve top outcomes. I also found evidence of a negative effect in localities with dense exposure to highly satisfactory projects. Regions with a mix of highly rated and moderately rated projects tend to do better in the future than those with only top-rated projects. This means that while lessons have been learned from very successful projects, having too many of these in one place can have negative spillovers. Therefore, close monitoring is needed in regions with high concentrations of top-performing projects to ensure that early successes and lessons learned are managed appropriately, preventing them from undermining later performance. |
| Keywords: | Aid effectiveness, World Bank, project success, localized learning |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:454 |
| By: | Bell, Peter |
| Abstract: | Governments periodically acquire capital-intensive infrastructure projects that private actors are unable or unwilling to complete, often under conditions where conventional net present value (NPV) analysis indicates strongly negative project economics. Such interventions are typically framed as political rescues or fiscal failures, with limited attention paid to how forward-looking project value evolves once construction risk is resolved. This paper examines the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX), acquired by the Government of Canada in 2018, as a detailed empirical case of infrastructure completion under state ownership. Using publicly available financial statements, the paper constructs a balance-sheet Net Present Value Profile that evaluates the project at successive points in time based solely on remaining future cash flows, treating all past expenditures as economically irrelevant for valuation. The results show that TMX’s forward-looking NPV was strongly negative at the time of acquisition but became decisively positive as construction risk was eliminated, stabilizing at a high steady-state value upon commissioning. This transition occurs without any revision to historical costs or operating assumptions and is robust to discount-rate variation. The analysis demonstrates how state intervention can function as risk absorption rather than capital misallocation, converting uncertainty into a valuable operating asset. By distinguishing completion dynamics from project failure cases, the paper clarifies why static ex ante NPV calculations can mischaracterize the economic logic of public intervention in long-lived infrastructure projects. |
| Keywords: | Net present value profile; infrastructure finance; construction risk; state ownership; public investment; balance-sheet valuation; project completion; risk absorption; pipeline economics; sovereign asset management |
| JEL: | D81 G31 H54 L32 L95 |
| Date: | 2026–01–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127855 |
| By: | Gökhan Dilek (Department of Applied Economics, Public Policies Section (OAP- GiM), Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Joël Bühler (Department of Applied Economics, Public Policies Section (OAP- GiM), Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | Local responses to renewable energy projects range from opposition that delays or blocks deployment to active support and participation. A common narrative underlying these behaviors emphasizes economic considerations: projects that impose local externalities without delivering local benefits tend to face resistance, whereas renewable energy communities (RECs) that are formed by citizens are argued to generate more local economic value than corporate plants. This paper examines these two related claims by comparing the local economic effects of community-owned and corporate-owned renewable energy plants. Using heterogeneity-robust difference-indifferences estimators and panel data for UK local authority districts, we estimate the income and employment impacts of community and corporate solar and wind projects. We find evidence of local economic benefits for some ownership–technology combinations, with substantial heterogeneity across ownership structures and technologies. Overall, the results point to a nuanced relationship between renewable energy deployment, ownership models, and local economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | The United Kingdom; Renewable Energy Communities; Energy Transition; Renewable Energy; Green Growth. JEL classification: C33; E24; J21; L94; O13; Q52; R23. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202604 |
| By: | Upasa Borah (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation); Akshay Jaitly (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation); Renuka Sane (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data on electricity projects from the CapEx database maintained by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) and estimates that India is likely to fall short of the optimal capacity requirement identified by the Central Electricity Authority for 2030. The shortfall stems from delays in the implementation and completion of projects. The paper finds that 30% of conventional and 39% of renewable energy projects ever announced have been completed, accounting for 15% and 9% of the total announced capacity, respectively, highlighting the difficulty in completing large-scale projects. Completion timelines are shorter for privately developed renewable and conventional projects, with the top 50 renewable energy developers outperforming others. Completion outcomes also differ by energy type, with solar and wind projects having the lowest completion timelines and the highest completion rates. These findings highlight the need for more targeted policy designs that account for the impact of these factors on project timelines, to ensure that the planned capacity translates into actual electricity supply needed to meet India's future demands. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjd:wpaper:18 |
| By: | Kyle, Jordan; Adeyanju, Dolapo; Adida, Claire; Arriola, Leonardo; Carrillo, Lucia; Fisher, Rachel; Iraoya, Augustine Okhale; Kosec, Katrina; Matanock, Aila; Mo, Cecilia H. |
| Abstract: | Community-driven development (CDD) programs aim to shift decision-making to the local level by empowering communities to prioritize, design, and implement projects that address their most pressing needs. These programs have gained global traction as vehicles for service delivery and empowerment, especially in fragile contexts with weak state capacity. These programs leverage communities’ understanding of local needs and their unique ability to deploy resources in conflict-affected, unstable, or highly remote areas that are operationally hard to reach for traditional development programs. However, evidence remains limited on how to structure CDD programs to ensure inclusive participation from a wide range of community members, particularly women, who tend to participate in community and public affairs at lower levels than men in these settings (Takeshima et al., 2024). |
| Keywords: | grants; community organizations; gender; development; rural areas; fragility; programmes; Nigeria; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Africa |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:178881 |