nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2025–10–20
seven papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura, Tartu Ülikool


  1. Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) as a lever for infrastructure development: Literature review By Wissal Doua; Mohammed Khariss
  2. AI Projects in Financial Supervisory Authorities By Parma Bains; Gabriela E Conde; Rangachary Ravikumar; Ebru S Iskender
  3. AI-assisted Programming May Decrease the Productivity of Experienced Developers by Increasing Maintenance Burden By Feiyang; Xu; Poonacha K. Medappa; Murat M. Tunc; Martijn Vroegindeweij; Jan C. Fransoo
  4. The Australian Energy Policy Debacle By Frank Milne
  5. Managing the impact of energy transition path uncertainty on European infrastructure investments By Nelson, David; Kinczyk, Ada; Villanueva, Carlos Perez
  6. Diversion Research By Yann Bramoullé; Charles Figuieres; Mathis Preti
  7. System Dynamics for System Innovation By Pontikakis Dimitrios; Papachristos Georgios; Janssen Matthijs; Norlen Hedvig; Miedzinski Michal

  1. By: Wissal Doua (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales - Souissi, Rabat); Mohammed Khariss (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales - Souissi, Rabat)
    Abstract: In a context characterized by the scarcity of public resources and the need to modernize infrastructure, PublicPrivate Partnerships have emerged as a strategic alternative that reconciles economic efficiency with the public interest. This study presents a theoretical and empirical literature review on PPPs in the infrastructure sector, drawing on key conceptual foundations as well as a set of case analyses at both international and Moroccan levels. It highlights, on the one hand, the contributions of PPPs in terms of financing, management, and infrastructure project performance, and on the other hand, the challenges related to contractual governance, risk allocation, and access inequalities. Through diverse examples, the study emphasizes that the success of PPPs largely depends on the quality of the institutional, legal, and organizational framework in which they are implemented. It thus offers a critical and structured perspective on the role PPPs can play in the sustainable development of infrastructure, with a particular focus on Morocco's experience.
    Abstract: Dans un contexte marqué par la rareté des ressources publiques et la nécessité de moderniser les infrastructures, les partenariats public-privé apparaissent comme une alternative stratégique permettant de concilier efficacité économique et intérêt général. Cette étude propose une revue de littérature intégrative (théorique et empirique) sur les PPP appliqués au secteur des infrastructures, en mobilisant les principaux fondements conceptuels ainsi qu'un corpus d'analyses de cas à l'échelle internationale et marocaine. Elle met en évidence, d'une part, les apports des PPP en termes de financement, de gestion et de performance des projets d'infrastructure, et d'autre part, les défis liés à la gouvernance contractuelle, à la répartition des risques et aux inégalités d'accès. À travers des exemples variés, notre revue de littérature souligne que la réussite des PPP dépend largement de la qualité du cadre institutionnel, juridique et organisationnel dans lequel ils s'inscrivent. Elle offre ainsi une lecture critique et structurée du rôle que peuvent jouer les PPP dans le développement durable des infrastructures, avec un focus particulier sur l'expérience du Maroc.
    Keywords: Investment, Infrastructure, PPP, Development, Développement, Investissement
    Date: 2025–08–19
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05248764
  2. By: Parma Bains; Gabriela E Conde; Rangachary Ravikumar; Ebru S Iskender
    Abstract: This paper discusses the imperative for financial supervisory authorities to enhance their toolkit through the adoption of Artificial Intelligence in response to the growing digitalization of financial services. It aims to assist authorities in safely and effectively overseeing applications of Artificial Intelligence in the financial sector by proposing a tailored project management methodology for implementation of Artificial Intelligence by financial supervisory authorities that address unique risks and align initiatives with strategic goals. Key challenges, including ensuring explainability and mitigating bias, with a focus on stakeholder collaboration, are emphasized, alongside prerequisites for successful deployment, such as robust governance frameworks and adequate resources.
    Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Deep Learning; Generative AI; DevOps; MLOps; AI governance; Data governance
    Date: 2025–10–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/199
  3. By: Feiyang (Amber); Xu; Poonacha K. Medappa; Murat M. Tunc; Martijn Vroegindeweij; Jan C. Fransoo
    Abstract: Generative AI solutions like GitHub Copilot have been shown to increase the productivity of software developers. Yet prior work remains unclear on the quality of code produced and the challenges of maintaining it in software projects. If quality declines as volume grows, experienced developers face increased workloads reviewing and reworking code from less-experienced contributors. We analyze developer activity in Open Source Software (OSS) projects following the introduction of GitHub Copilot. We find that productivity indeed increases. However, the increase in productivity is primarily driven by less-experienced (peripheral) developers. We also find that code written after the adoption of AI requires more rework. Importantly, the added rework burden falls on the more experienced (core) developers, who review 6.5% more code after Copilot's introduction, but show a 19% drop in their original code productivity. More broadly, this finding raises caution that productivity gains of AI may mask the growing burden of maintenance on a shrinking pool of experts.
    Date: 2025–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.10165
  4. By: Frank Milne (Queen's University)
    Abstract: For the past 20 years, Australia has introduced policies encouraging and subsidizing renewable electricity generation. Since the election of the Australian Labor Party government in 2022, these policies have been accelerated. We show that international evidence of the heavy cost of renewable energy projects has been ignored. Cost-benefit studies show that these projects cannot be justified with any reasonable price for carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, the Australian economy has suffered greatly increased prices for electricity provided by the grid. In turn, this has increased the rate of deindustrialization in key industries, contributed to a cost-of-living crisis for consumers and made the country more strategically vulnerable.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy, Cost-Benefit, Net Zero
    JEL: Q2 Q3 Q4 H54
    Date: 2025–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1540
  5. By: Nelson, David (The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Kinczyk, Ada; Villanueva, Carlos Perez
    Abstract: Investors in energy infrastructure during these times of a rapid energy transition face two types of uncertainty. The first is whether a slower than required pace of transition will affect markets in ways that undermine investment cases. These risks can be identified and managed by understanding how the infrastructure, its cost, prices, revenues, and market size, might fit within the existing landscape. A more difficult and speculative risk has surrounded the question of whether an investment case might be undermined if the transition goals are met, but the transition path and direction differ substantially from original expectations. This paper uses scenario analysis of a wide range of different plausible, but less likely, transition paths to develop a fact base on which to assess these transition path risks. The 8 scenarios cover transitions where technology breakthroughs and policy accelerate the development of alternatives including nuclear power, carbon capture and sequestration, hydrogen, distributed renewable energy, and energy efficiency to levels at the edge of what forecasters deem as plausible. Two of the scenarios also look at the impact of accelerated development of renewable energy and hydrogen on a global scale, with opportunities to import technology and energy into Europe, where the economics of imports of electricity or hydrogen make sense. For each of these scenarios, we have developed forecasts of demand, prices, costs, utilization rates, price volatility, and investment, for the relevant energy markets and their technologies.
    Keywords: energy pathways, policy risk, risk management, scenarios, uncertainty
    Date: 2025–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-19
  6. By: Yann Bramoullé (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France and CEPR); Charles Figuieres (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Mathis Preti (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France)
    Abstract: Between 1954 and 1998, the tobacco industry funded more than 1, 900 research projects at a total cost of $355 million, on topics such as the roles of heredity and nutrition in cancer. Even though legitimate, this research was intended to divert attention from the harmful effects of tobacco. We provide the first formal analysis of such diversion research. We show that special interests may have strong incentives to affect the scientific agenda, even when the research itself is unbiased. This form of scientific lobbying yields large welfare losses and raises concerns about the private funding of research.
    Keywords: Scientific uncertainty, scientific lobbying, private research funding
    Date: 2025–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2518
  7. By: Pontikakis Dimitrios (European Commission - JRC); Papachristos Georgios (European Commission - JRC); Janssen Matthijs; Norlen Hedvig; Miedzinski Michal (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: "In times of radical socio-technical change, system-level or transformative innovation (hereafter simply system innovation) is necessary in order to achieve, or maintain, economic prosperity, in ways compatible with environmental sustainability and a cohesive society. There is growing policy interest and experimentation with transformative innovation policies, which seek to address pressing societal challenges, including global ones, such as climate change, and domestic ones, such as successful industrial transitions. Existing tools for measuring, modelling and evaluating innovation policy inputs and outcomes are unable to capture crucial features of transformative innovation policy, including synergies, tipping points, multi-level interactions, sequencing and rebound effects. This report documents an exploratory, one-year research project to build the knowledge base and assess the feasibility of a system dynamics model of system innovation. The project centred around the development of a proof-of-concept version of POLYTRoPOS (a POLYvalent model for the evaluation of TRansformative POlicy Scenarios), a system dynamics model focused on the interactions between technology deployment and productive capability accumulation. The prototype, in this early form, cannot yet provide policy guidance, but is meant to illustrate key concepts, demonstrate policy relevance and generate lessons for the later development of a more fully-featured model.Large heterogeneity in the framings of system-level innovation relevant to each production sector, and uncertainty about their future transition paths have been important stumbling blocks to aggregate measurement and evaluation that is internationally comparable. The project sought to reconceptualise system innovation processes in general ways that are more receptive of aggregate and internationally comparable measurement, in order to model them quantitatively. To do so it was necessary to contain the analytical boundary of the model in processes which combine high policy interest, for which economics and social science theory offer adequate guidance, and which exhibit sufficient statistical regularity to permit meaningful modelling. The report contains an overview of background literature providing a theoretical basis for the construction of the model (section 2); the rationale for the choice of the case study, namely the current episode of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) deployment-capability accumulation as it is unfolding in the EU, and some key definitions (sections 3.1 and 3.2); global and European metrics of the RES transition in the EU from internationally comparable statistics (section 3.3); develops the overall structure and boundaries of the model and the substantive and policy stakes of case study of RES (sections 4.1 and 4.2); showcases a computer simulation model, partially calibrated on empirical data on RES deployment and production capability accumulation for the EU27. This stylised system dynamics model has been expressed in Causal Loop and Stock and Flow diagrams. We have documented our calibration data and parameters (sections 4.3-4.5) and provided some illustrative simulations of relevance to current policy debates (section 4.6). Lessons from the exploratory project can inform the future development of policy measurement and evaluation tools in the JRC, including a more fully-fledged and versatile version of the POLYTRoPOS model."
    Date: 2025–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143019

This nep-ppm issue is ©2025 by Arvi Kuura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.