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on Project, Program and Portfolio Management |
| By: | Mikhail Miklyaev (Cambridge Resources International Inc.) |
| Abstract: | Mozambique’s high exposure to floods, cyclones, droughts, extreme heat, and other climate-related hazards presents significant risks to public infrastructure, service delivery, and fiscal sustainability. Although climate considerations are formally embedded within the country’s Public Investment Management (PIM) framework, their practical application remains largely qualitative, inconsistent across sectors, and insufficiently integrated into technical and economic appraisal. This paper assesses the current integration of climate risk within Mozambique’s PIM system and develops a refined Climate Risk Screening and Assessment Framework for systematically incorporating climate resilience into public investment decision-making. The proposed framework introduces standardized hazard screening, climate risk classification, project-specific impact assessment, climate-proofing alternatives, and quantitative economic appraisal across the Project Profile, Prefeasibility Study, Feasibility Study, and final appraisal stages. It further integrates expected annual damages, avoided losses, cost-benefit analysis, climate scenario testing, and structured appraisal criteria to support the selection of economically justified adaptation measures. An illustrative application to a rural access road in Sofala Province demonstrates how climate risk information can materially influence project design and the selection of appropriate resilience measures. The framework provides a practical basis for embedding climate-responsive appraisal within e-SNIP/e-MIP, strengthening institutional oversight, improving the resilience of public investments, and supporting more efficient allocation of scarce public resources. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Public Investment Management; climate risk assessment; climate resilience; climate-proofing; cost-benefit analysis; infrastructure investment; Mozambique. |
| JEL: | H54 Q54 Q51 Q58 O22 |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:4645 |
| By: | Matthew S. Clancy; Matthew Esche; Siddhartha Haria; Claire T. McMahon; Christopher M. Snyder; Caleb Watney |
| Abstract: | The U.S. federal government spends roughly $150 billion a year on research and development through mechanisms ranging from grants and contracts to prizes, advance market commitments, and tax credits. These funding mechanisms differ markedly in risk allocation, decision authority, and incentive power, yet policymakers have little systematic guidance for choosing among them. We develop a framework that asks the policymaker three initial questions about the contracting environment: Can they articulate the work to be done? Can they specify what would constitute a successful solution? Can they identify the most capable performers to contract with? The answers considerably narrow the set of viable mechanisms, enabling a more tractable choice of the efficient mechanism based on further considerations from the innovation-economics literature. |
| JEL: | L52 O32 O38 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35549 |
| By: | Thiel, Zarah; Gonzalez-Gordon, Ivan; Löschel, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Scaling of renewable energy (RE) delivers global mitigation and local co-benefits, such as enhanced energy security. Narratives and policies in the energy transition differ in their advocacy of international cooperation or competition, reflecting different priorities in securing co-benefits for one's own country or others. We conduct a pre-registered information provision experiment with 4, 000+ representative respondents in Germany and Spain analyzing two novel determinants of locational mitigation preferences: moral universalism-altruism towards strangers versus in-group members- and economic narratives about the energy transition. In our 2x2 design, treatments manipulate the location-home versus developing country-of required investments in renewables and resulting cobenefits. We identify a universalism gap, underpinning the moral universalism literature: universalist individuals show stronger support for foreign RE projects than communitarians. While co-benefit narratives shift average policy preferences, they do not close this moral divide in preferences, even under narratives targeting communitarian audiences. Despite notable differences between Germany and Spain with respect to their technical and institutional environment to scale RE, the effects of the narratives and the association between moral universalism and policy preferences are consistent across both countries. Overall, our results indicate that moral foundations strongly shape locational mitigation preferences, and that communicating positive spillovers to the home country from RE investments abroad is an effective narrative to build support for climate transfers. |
| Abstract: | Der Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien (EE) trägt weltweit zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels bei und bringt lokale Zusatznutzen mit sich, wie beispielsweise eine verbesserte Energiesicherheit. Die Diskurse und politischen Strategien im Rahmen der Energiewende unterscheiden sich darin, ob sie internationale Zusammenarbeit oder Wettbewerb befürworten, was unterschiedliche Prioritäten bei der Sicherung von Zusatznutzen für das eigene Land oder für andere Länder widerspiegelt. Wir führen ein vorab registriertes Experiment zur Informationsvermittlung mit über 4.000 repräsentativen Befragten in Deutschland und Spanien durch, in dem wir zwei neuartige Determinanten der Präferenzen für den Standort von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen analysieren: moralischen Universalismus - Altruismus gegenüber Fremden im Vergleich zu Mitgliedern der eigenen Gruppe - und wirtschaftliche Narrative zur Energiewende. In unserem 2x2-Design manipulieren die Behandlungsgruppen den Standort - Heimatland versus Entwicklungsland - der erforderlichen Investitionen in erneuerbare Energien und der daraus resultierenden positiven Nebeneffekte. Wir identifizieren eine Universalismus-Kluft, die die Literatur zum moralischen Universalismus untermauert: Universalisten zeigen eine stärkere Unterstützung für ausländische Projekte im Bereich erneuerbarer Energien als Kommunitaristen. Während Narrative zu Mitnutzen die durchschnittlichen politischen Präferenzen verschieben, schließen sie diese moralische Kluft in den Präferenzen nicht, selbst bei Narrativen, die sich an ein kommunitaristisches Publikum richten. Trotz bemerkenswerter Unterschiede zwischen Deutschland und Spanien hinsichtlich ihres technischen und institutionellen Umfelds für den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien sind die Auswirkungen der Narrative und der Zusammenhang zwischen moralischem Universalismus und politischen Präferenzen in beiden Ländern konsistent. Insgesamt deuten unsere Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass moralische Grundlagen die Präferenzen hinsichtlich standortbezogener Klimaschutzmaßnahmen stark beeinflussen. |
| Keywords: | economic narratives, moral universalism, co-benefits, climate mitigation, renewable energy, survey experiment |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:343082 |
| By: | Wenyuan Li; Haoqi Lyu; Pengyu Wei |
| Abstract: | This article studies a dynamic corporate risk management problem by considering the decision-making of risk-averse managers who exert costly effort and select project risk. We study how a Value-at-Risk (VaR) constraint affects managerial decisions and the distribution of firm value when the manager's objective is non-concave with a fixed salary and options. By the concavification technique, we analyze the optimal terminal firm value on the concave envelope of the objective function. Applying the quantile formulation and the martingale approach, we can derive explicit solutions for optimal effort, terminal firm value, and project choice. The optimal terminal firm value can be divided into nine cases by carefully discussing the choices of VaR floor and tail probability. Compared with the benchmark case, we find that a VaR manager will smooth terminal firm value across states, reducing it in good states while supporting it in adverse states. Moreover, a VaR requirement generally improves downside protection and reduces bankruptcy probability when the VaR floor is low or moderate. However, when the VaR floor is sufficiently high, it can increase bankruptcy probability and induce gambling-for-recovery behavior in adverse states. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that greater managerial effort uniformly improves firm value. Moreover, more incentive options make managers more responsible, leading to a smoother terminal firm value across states. In contrast, a high fixed salary makes the manager less responsible and ultimately causes a more dispersed firm value. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.05623 |
| By: | Shuhei Nishitateno; Yasuyuki Todo |
| Abstract: | China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has driven a global surge in large-scale infrastructure projects. While existing research has focused primarily on the BRI's effects on economic outcomes in participating countries, such as investment, trade, and debt dynamics, its economic and diplomatic implications for Western nations that do not participate in the BRI yet compete with China in global infrastructure development remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining how the BRI has affected Japanese overseas infrastructure projects and Japan's diplomatic engagement with BRI countries. Using an event-study framework within a staggered difference-in-differences design and a panel of 123 low- and middle-income countries from 2007 to 2020, we find that the BRI significantly crowded out Japanese infrastructure projects and reduced visits to Japan by political leaders from BRI countries. These effects are especially pronounced among countries geographically proximate to Japan and China, where competitive pressures are most intense. Â |
| Keywords: | China, Japan, Belt and Road Initiative, overseas infrastructure investment, diplomatic relations |
| JEL: | F21 O19 P00 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2026-05 |
| By: | Christoff Scherrer (Kassel Institute for Sustainability & Global Labour University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the possibility of using voluntary carbon credits to retire coal-fired power plants early. It introduces carbon emission trading using the example of the substantial European emissions trading market. It presents recommendations for phasing out coal power plants and discusses the challenges of calculating plant proprietors' losses and carbon emission savings. It also outlines the specific challenges of voluntary carbon credits and the need to monitor carbon credit deals. These issues are illustrated with the world’s first Energy Transition Mechanism transaction for the early retirement of a coal plant owned by ACEN in the Philippines: the South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation (SLTEC). It analyzes the financial transactions carried out by the power plant owner and the envisaged use of voluntary carbon credits. The paper concludes that there are many obstacles to moving beyond a few pilot projects. |
| Keywords: | energy transition; voluntary carbon credits; coal power plant; Philippines |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202505 |
| By: | Esteves, Rui; Tuncer, Ali Coskun |
| Abstract: | Contemporaries and historians agree that British colonies did not borrow on their own credit but on imperial fiat. We explore the history of colonial bonds explicitly guaranteed by Britain to qualify this assertion. We find that markets priced guarantees above other colonial bonds and that colonial governments lobbied for them. The introduction of other regulatory enhancements reduced the value of guarantees in the late 19th century, but it recovered in the interwar. British authorities were ambivalent about guarantees—worrying about creating moral hazard while using guarantees to lower the costs of developmental and strategic projects in the colonies. |
| Keywords: | Loan guarantees |
| JEL: | F54 H81 N20 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19267 |
| By: | Jacopo Ghirri; Carlos Rodriguez-Pardo; Lara Aleluia Reis; Massimo Tavoni |
| Abstract: | The European Union has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, but whether current trends are compatible with this ambition remains uncertain. We apply deep learning to high-resolution socioeconomic and sectoral data across EU27 member states till 2023 to project sectoral CO$_2$ trajectories under current trends, extrapolating observed sectoral momentum without assuming changes in the pace or effectiveness of the policy environment beyond what is already reflected in historical data. We project that EU27 emissions will exceed the 2030 target by 35% (620 Mt CO$_2$ shortfall), with only a small minority of countries on trajectories consistent with the bloc's commitments. While the Power sector achieves target-consistent reductions driven by the renewable transition, Mobility shows minimal progress and accounts for over a third of total emissions by 2030, reflecting a structural inertia across member states rather than geographically concentrated lag. Our findings indicate that substantial additional intervention is required to close Europe's ambition-implementation gap, and call for establishing up-to-date energy information in Europe. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.18690 |