nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2026–04–20
nine papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura, Tartu Ülikool


  1. Decoupling Cause and Effect in Major Projects: An Exploratory Workshop Study on Complexity, Temporal Displacement, and Implications for Time Pressure By Huemmer, Matthias
  2. Abschlussbericht: Missionsorientierung und Innovationscluster By Wurster, Stefan; Hottenrott, Hanna; Bartscherer, Falk; Kurz, Felix
  3. Simulating Economics for Mining and Shipping Projects using Transaction Cost Economics By Bell, Peter
  4. Environmental regulation and FDI: Mergers and Acquisitions versus Greenfield Investment By Federico Carril-Caccia; Ana Cuadros; Juliette Milgram Baleix
  5. To be or to want to be: how followers engage with NFTs, their communities and how it influences their identity journey By Giulia Nevi; Olivier Nicolas; Luca Dezi; Gian Luca Gregori
  6. Leading the Way in Building a High-Integrity Carbon Market Framework: The Case of Brunei’s Belait Swamp Forest By Venkatachalam Anbumozhi
  7. Public discourse on retail payments and the case of CBDC By Bindseil, Ulrich
  8. Planning and Implementing the Climate and Development Transformation:Country Platforms as Enablers By Bedossa, Bastien; Cavallini, Andrea; Kammourieh, Sima; Kessler, Martin
  9. Coordinating Coal Plant Closures: Transient Strategic Reserves in Transitioning Energy-Only Markets By Simshauser, P.

  1. By: Huemmer, Matthias
    Abstract: Major projects and megaprojects are large-scale, capital-intensive undertakings marked by long durations, high uncertainty, extensive stakeholder interfaces, deep interdependencies, and strong budget and schedule pressure. In such environments, failures rarely stem from a single isolated event; rather, they emerge through coupled sequences of requirements, decisions, handovers, and execution constraints that accumulate over time. A central practical challenge is that the effects of earlier deficiencies often become visible only much later, when correction is more expensive and more disruptive. This article examines that temporal separation between origin and visibility as a form of cause-effect decoupling in major projects. The empirical basis is a structured workshop with four focus groups from an international major-project organization (N = 25), covering engineering, procurement, expediting, inspection, quality, manufacturing, project engineering, scheduling, and project management. Participants mapped where the causes of project problems were perceived to arise and where their effects became visible across eight project phases. The results indicate a clear temporal asymmetry. Causes are concentrated in specification preparation, fabrication-documentation preparation, and contract-related work, whereas visible effects are concentrated later, especially in fabrication-documentation preparation, manufacturing, acceptance testing, and final documentation. The weighted phase-center of causes lies at 3.11 and that of effects at 4.39, indicating a downstream displacement of 1.28 phases. Category-specific analysis further suggests that the magnitude of displacement varies by functional role, with the strongest lag perceived in expediting and procurement, a moderate lag in project management and coordination, and a smaller but still positive lag in technical execution and quality-related functions. Drawing on a formal categorization of project states (Huemmer, 2020), the observed pattern is consistent with characteristics of a “complex” project state, in which the connection between cause and effect is not readily discernible in real time and may only be reconstructed retrospectively. The findings are therefore consistent with the interpretation that delayed visibility of earlier deficiencies may be an important mechanism in the formation of experienced project complexity, especially under conditions of schedule pressure. The article contributes an exploratory empirical bridge between complexity theory and time-pressure theory and derives implications for front-end clarification, specification governance, document maturity control, gate design, and cross-functional communication.
    Date: 2026–04–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bu9pe_v1
  2. By: Wurster, Stefan; Hottenrott, Hanna; Bartscherer, Falk; Kurz, Felix
    Abstract: The "Mission Orientation and Innovation Clusters" project investigates how mission-oriented innovation policies (MOIPs) influence technological specialization, innovation clusters, and national innovation performance. While MOIPs are designed to address grand societal challenges, their impact on the formation and persistence of technological leadership remains unclear. This project sought to systematically analyze the conditions under which mission orientation supports the emergence of innovation clusters and how institutional and political factors shape the effectiveness of these policies.
    Keywords: mission-oriented innovation policies, innovation clusters, national innovation performance
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:339769
  3. By: Bell, Peter
    Abstract: This article analyzes shipping infrastructure around mining projects using empirical examples, a toy model of a hypothetical mine and port, and transaction cost economics. This article presents examples of two mining operations on Vancouver Island, called the Myra Falls Mine and the Orca Quarry. These two mines both have integrated shipping facilities, and the article uses transaction cost economics to analyze why these mines built their own ports. The article also builds a toy model of mining, processing, and shipping based on a bottom-up approach. The article presents different designs for the mine and compares them based on things like profitability, total GDP impact, and reliability of supply. One way to design the hypothetical mining and shipping project is to start with an assumption on the shipping capacity and then reverse-engineer the amount of mining required to use this port capacity. Another way to design it starts with an assumption about the mineral deposit and then infers the shipping capacity required to transport the mineral concentrates to market. The article shows how to compare the designs according to different goals. For example, one goal is to maximize the profit of the mine from the perspective of a private company. Another goal is to maximize the total GDP impact from the mine and port from the perspective of the Canadian government. A third goal is to ensure reliable, domestic production of critical minerals at any cost from the perspective of the military. The article presents an example of a hypothetical mining project with breakeven economics that would nonetheless generate large, positive economic impacts.
    Keywords: Mining, Shipping, Critical Minerals, Infrastructure, Transaction Cost Economics,
    JEL: B5 B52 D3 D7 D79 E6 E65 F2 F5 F53 G3 G38 H1 H2 H25 H5 K0 K2 K23 K3 L3 L32 L5 L51 L6 L61 L7 L72 N5 O1 O13 O2 P0 P1 Q3 Q32 Q33
    Date: 2026–01–21
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127815
  4. By: Federico Carril-Caccia (Department of International and Spanish Economics, University of Granada); Ana Cuadros (University of Jaume I); Juliette Milgram Baleix (Department of International and Spanish Economics, University of Granada)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of environmental regulation (ER) on foreign direct investment (FDI) location decisions, using a gravity model covering the period 2003–2018. We examine how ER in both origin and destination countries influences bilateral FDI flows, distinguishing between greenfield (GF) investments and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). To our knowledge, this is the first study of FDI location decisions to jointly analyse the responses of bilateral M&A and GF projects to ER across a large sample of developed and developing countries and manufacturing industries. Overall, we find no consistent evidence supporting either the pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) or the green haven hypothesis (GHH) for total FDI. However, results differ by mode of investment: stricter ER in the origin country encourages outward M&As, but has no significant effect on GF projects. Conversely, ER in host countries appears to exert limited pull effects. Further analysis by sector (clean versus dirty industries) and by country income level reveals important heterogeneity in these effects. For pollution-intensive sectors, tighter regulation in high-income countries is associated with greater outward M&A activity and GF investment directed toward low- and middle-income hosts-an allocation consistent with the PHH. In contrast, in clean industries, GF investment is positively associated with stricter ER in the origin country, lending support to the GHH. Taken together, these results suggest that stricter ER need not deter investment, especially in clean industries or via GF projects; however, in pollution-intensive activities, reallocation through cross-border M&As toward low- and middle-income countries remains a concern.
    Keywords: Environmental regulation; Foreign Direct Investment; Pollution Haven Hypothesis; Green Haven Hypothesis; Mergers and Acquisitions; Greenfield investments; Gravity model
    JEL: F21 F64 Q58
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202608
  5. By: Giulia Nevi; Olivier Nicolas (LARSH - Laboratoire de Recherche Sociétés & Humanités - UPHF - Université Polytechnique Hauts-de-France - INSA Hauts-De-France - INSA Institut National des Sciences Appliquées Hauts-de-France - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées); Luca Dezi; Gian Luca Gregori
    Abstract: Purpose -Often associated to the cryptocurrency markets and to future metaverses, the NFT market and its determinants must be investigated on their own. Many determinants of consumer behaviors with NFTs remain undetermined. Besides early adopters, a significant population of followers has yet to start purchasing NFTs. This paper aims to explore identity-related determinants of followers' engagement with NFTs around the personal and social identity theories as well as identity projects.Design/methodology/approach -This study is based on 34 semistructured interviews with respondents from France, Italy and India who self-identify as NFT followers. The data were analyzed using a simplified version of the Gioia method to explore motivations and identity expression through NFTs. The theoretical framework is grounded in personal and social identity theory and identity projects.Findings -The authors detail specific features of NFTs followers compared to fans or purchasers. They share purchasers and fans economic and technological perceptions associated to NFTs, but their emotions toward NFTs are contrasted. They give great importance to communities but are much concerned by potential dark sides. If they do not purchase NFTs so far, they incorporate them into their identity process and identity projects, even if such projects appear rather unstructured, as are their self-presentations.Research limitations/implications -Cultural replication as other methodological approaches as netnography and longitudinal is needed to disentangle both NFTs as identity issues. This research extends the understanding of dimensions that could influence the adoption and diffusion of a new technology by investigating NFTs followers.Practical implications -Managers could apply the investigated dimensions to structure strategies to convert NFTs followers and optimize their impact on NFT business.Originality/value -To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is one of the first studies to address NFTs from a deep perspective of followers of a digital consumption phenomenon. It offers insightful reflections on
    Keywords: Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) Digital consumption Technology adoption Identity projects Online communities Innovation diffusion Sustainability, Non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Digital consumption, Technology adoption, Identity projects, Online communities, Innovation diffusion, Sustainability
    Date: 2026–02–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05577144
  6. By: Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA))
    Abstract: Brunei Darussalam has a strategic opportunity to align climate action with long-term ecological stewardship and economic diversification through the development of a high-integrity forest carbon market. With extensive intact forest cover, strong state-led governance, and globally significant peatland ecosystems, Brunei is well positioned to pursue carbon finance as a complementary policy instrument to support its nationally determined contribution objectives under the Paris Agreement. This policy brief examines the technical, institutional, and governance foundations required to establish a credible forest carbon market in Brunei Darussalam, with a particular focus on peatland-based carbon projects. It underscores the importance of robust data systems, conservative baselines, and comprehensive risk management to ensure environmental integrity. The brief also assesses social and environmental safeguards, benefit-sharing mechanisms, and market-positioning strategies, including participation in voluntary carbon markets and potential engagement under Article 6 cooperative approaches. The analysis finds that while Brunei’s strong legal protections for forests pose challenges for demonstrating additionality, they also provide a solid foundation for generating premium, high-integrity carbon credits if carbon market mechanisms are used to support enhanced conservation, monitoring, and restoration activities. By embedding rights-based safeguards, transparent governance arrangements, and long-term stewardship frameworks, Brunei can position itself as a regional model for people-centred, high-quality forest carbon finance. Latest Articles
    Date: 2026–03–24
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-23
  7. By: Bindseil, Ulrich
    Abstract: The retail payment industry is significant, affects every citizen and is a very precondition for a modern society based on the division of labor. It is characterized by two-sidedness, strong network effects, high fixed costs, high concentration and high profitability of successful firms, layering, path dependencies and stability of inferior equilibria. Alternative retail payment architectures may have potentially relatively similar social welfare performances, but vastly different implications on different industry stakeholders. The specificities of the retail payment industry accentuate the incentives to influence public opinion and lawmakers, including through "alternative" narratives. The public discourse on retail payment architecture will be confusing for several reasons: (i) technical complexity of retail payment architectures for non-experts; (ii) expertise concentrated with those having vested interests and who will thus always provide biased explanations and opinion; (iii) significant financial fire power of successful incumbent firms to promote their narratives; (iv) incentives to promote projects "out of the money" with exaggerated arguments, while truly promising projects may be kept secret for long; (v) long deployment times and uncertainty on ultimate implementation and use. We discuss the various perspectives of key retail payment industry stakeholders. For each, we identify their main interest, key preferred and feared narratives. We discuss in more depth specific issues relating to the current discourse around retail CBDC. We draw lessons from a public policy perspective.
    Keywords: Monetary architecture, means of payment, network industries, public discourse, vested interests, central bank money
    JEL: E42 E58 G21 G23 G28 L11
    Date: 2026
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:339999
  8. By: Bedossa, Bastien; Cavallini, Andrea; Kammourieh, Sima; Kessler, Martin
    Abstract: Country platforms are coordination mechanisms set up by developing countries to mobilize domestic and international financing sources for shared climate and development objectives. In a sense, such an approach is far from new, but it has been reinvigorated by the scale of investment needs in development and climate, which are estimated to require trillions of dollars annually in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs).
    Keywords: Climate Action, Country Platforms, Financing, Structural Transformation, Economic Development, Resilience
    Date: 2025–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2502
  9. By: Simshauser, P.
    Abstract: During 2016-2018, Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) experienced the adverse effects of two sequential and sudden coal plant closures, viz. sharply rising wholesale spot prices, structural hedge shortages and deteriorating system strength. More recently, a slowing rate of renewable project entry has led governments to intervene by delaying scheduled coal plant closures. An intervention to delay a scheduled coal plant closure helps maintain short term reliability but inadvertently undermines investor confidence in new entry through a transient depression in near-term forward prices. Above all, interventions risk reinforcing a cycle of stalled renewable entry and further delays to scheduled coal plant closures. This article analyses a transient strategic reserve, a deliberately temporary, out of market "waiting room" for dispatchable capacity to break the circularity. By assembling and temporarily underwriting a targeted reserve of dispatchable plant prior to coal closure dates, policymakers can maintain price stability and resource adequacy while substantially preserving the integrity of the energy only market design. Using a dynamic, security constrained electricity market model, outcomes across scenarios show the transient reserve produces a more orderly transition path, materially reduces the risk of price volatility and reliability breaches at relatively low cost, while improving investment incentives for intermittent renewables and dispatchable plant capacity. Findings suggest "the waiting room" is a tractable, low intrusion mechanism capable of supporting scheduled coal closures without institutionalising a capacity market.
    Keywords: Strategic Reserve, Energy-Only Markets, Resource Adequacy
    JEL: D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40
    Date: 2026–01–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2627

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