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on Project, Program and Portfolio Management |
| By: | Fernando Acebes; M Pereda; David Poza; Javier Pajares; Jose M Galan |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies. More specifically, the approach uses extensive Monte Carlo simulation to obtain information about the expected behavior of the project. This dataset is exploited in several ways using different statistical learning methodologies in a structured fashion. Initially, simulations are used to detect if project deviations are a consequence of the expected variability using Anomaly Detection algorithms. If the project follows this expected variability, probabilities of success in cost and time and expected cost and total duration of the project can be estimated using classification and regression approaches. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.02589&r= |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Mashfiq Ahasan Hridoy; Rafat Alam |
| Abstract: | The global energy landscape is undergoing a pivotal transformation, driven by the dual imperatives of sustainable development and climate change mitigation. This transition from traditional fossil fuels to renewable energy sources presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities, particularly in the context of developing nations such as Bangladesh. With its dense population and burgeoning energy needs, Bangladesh stands at a critical juncture in its energy development trajectory. This paper explores the implications of Bangladesh’s energy transition on employment and skill requirements within the power and energy sector. Through a comprehensive analysis, the study aims to project the net employment impact by 2030, taking into account the evolving energy mix and the potential for job creation versus job displacement. |
| Keywords: | Energy Transition, Power and Energy Sector, Employment, sustainable energy, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:opaper:152&r= |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Faisal Quaiyyum |
| Abstract: | The global energy landscape is undergoing a pivotal transformation, driven by the dual imperatives of sustainable development and climate change mitigation. This transition from traditional fossil fuels to renewable energy sources presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities, particularly in the context of developing nations such as Bangladesh. With its dense population and burgeoning energy needs, Bangladesh stands at a critical juncture in its energy development trajectory. This paper explores the implications of Bangladesh’s energy transition on employment and skill requirements within the power and energy sector. Through a comprehensive analysis, the study aims to project the net employment impact by 2030, taking into account the evolving energy mix and the potential for job creation versus job displacement. |
| Keywords: | Energy Transition, Power and Energy Sector, Employment, sustainable energy, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:opaper:153&r= |
| By: | Roman Stöllinger |
| Abstract: | Abstract:The case for green industrial policy is strong and it is the obvious instrument to induce the structural transformation towards an emission-free economy. At the core of such a transformation lies the decarbonisation of the energy system. The industrial policy effort required to achieve the ambitious net zero objective in the European Green Deal (EGD) can be divided into three policy tasks: expanding renewable energy sources, raising energy efficiency across sectors and developing new technologies for industrial production processes where clean technologies are not available yet. While the first two tasks can rely on cost-competitive technologies and the required investment costs could in the long run pay for themselves, the third task constitutes formidable technological challenges that need to be tackled with a mission-oriented industrial policy. The industrial policy package employed ought to be a mix of public investments, green subsidies coupled with appropriate environmental regulations and an industrial mission for developing net zero industrial technologies. Importantly, with investment costs estimated at 1.75% of GDP per year, achieving the objectives of the EGD seems feasible also from a financial perspective. Despite this optimistic tone, the EGD is far from being a safe bet, and its success can easily be threatened by a plethora of factors, including opposition by vested interests or geopolitical confrontations. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2023:m:06:i:59&r= |
| By: | Moritz A. Drupp; Zachary M. Turk; Ben Groom; Jonas Heckenhahn |
| Abstract: | While the global economy continues to grow, ecosystem services tend to stagnate or decline. Economic theory has shown how such shifts in relative scarcities can be reflected in project appraisal and environmental-economic accounting, but empirical evidence has been sparse to put theory into practice. To estimate the relative price change in ecosystem services that can be used for making such adjustments, we perform a global meta-analysis of contingent valuation studies to derive income elasticities of willingness to pay (WTP) for ecosystem services to proxy the degree of limited substitutability. Based on 861 income-WTP pairs from more than 400 studies, we estimate an income elasticity of WTP of around 0.8. Combined with estimates of good-specific growth rates, we estimate relative price change of ecosystem services of around 2.2 percent per year. In an application to natural capital valuation of forest ecosystem services by the World Bank, we show that public forest natural capital should be uplifted by around 60 percent. Our assessment of aggregate public natural capital yields a larger value adjustment of between 100 and 170 percent, depending on the discount rate. We discuss implications for policy appraisal and for improving estimates of natural capital in comprehensive wealth accounts. |
| Keywords: | willingness to pay, ecosystem services, income elasticity, limited substitutability, growth, relative prices, contingent valuation, forests, natural capital |
| JEL: | D61 H43 Q51 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11156&r= |