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on Project, Program and Portfolio Management |
| By: | David Curto; Fernando Acebes; Jose M Gonzalez-Varona; David Poza |
| Abstract: | In construction projects, contingency reserves have traditionally been estimated based on a percentage of the total project cost, which is arbitrary and, thus, unreliable in practical cases. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable estimation. However, works on this topic have focused exclusively on the effects of aleatoric uncertainty, but ignored the impacts of other uncertainty types. In this paper, we present a method to quantitatively determine project cost contingency reserves based on Monte Carlo Simulation that considers the impact of not only aleatoric uncertainty, but also of the effects of other uncertainty kinds (stochastic, epistemic) on the total project cost. The proposed method has been validated with a real-case construction project in Spain. The obtained results demonstrate that the approach will be helpful for construction Project Managers because the obtained cost contingency reserves are consistent with the actual uncertainty type that affects the risks identified in their projects. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.03500&r= |
| By: | Jose M. Gonzalez-Varona; Natalia Martin-Cruz; Fernando Acebes; Javier Pajares |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we apply a case study approach to advance current understanding of what effects public co-funding of R&D projects have on project team members' perceived complexity. We chose an R&D project carried out by an industrial SME in northern Spain. The chosen research strategy was a qualitative approach, and sixteen employees participated in the project. We held in-depth semi-structured interviews at the beginning and end of the co-funded part of the project. NVivo data analysis software was used for qualitative data analysis. Results showed a substantial increase in perceived complexity. We observed that this was due to unresolved tension between the requirements of the project's co-financing entity and normal SME working procedures. New working procedures needed to be developed in order to comply with the co-financing entity's requirements. However, overall perceived complexity significantly decreased once the co-financed part of the project was completed. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.00076&r= |
| By: | Jose M Gonzalez-Varona; Adolfo Lopez-Paredes; Javier Pajares; Fernando Acebes; Felix Villafanez |
| Abstract: | Large companies are fully engaged in their digital transformation, specifically in developing strategic Business Intelligence (BI) projects. They have a Digital Strategy and top-level executives managing the change. BI projects are also being carried out in SMEs. In this paper, we present the results of an interpretative study conducted on a sample of SMEs from different sectors carrying out BI projects. We study whether BI maturity models are valid for SMEs and their usefulness for analysing the projects and evaluating the results at the end of the project. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.01616&r= |
| By: | Fernando Acebes; Javier Pajares; Jose M Gonzalez-Varona; Adolfo Lopez-Paredes |
| Abstract: | Project managers need to manage risks throughout the project lifecycle and, thus, need to know how changes in activity durations influence project duration and risk. We propose a new indicator (the Activity Risk Index, ARI) that measures the contribution of each activity to the total project risk while it is underway. In particular, the indicator informs us about what activities contribute the most to the project's uncertainty so that project managers can pay closer attention to the performance of these activities. The main difference between our indicator and other activity sensitivity metrics in the literature (e.g. cruciality, criticality, significance, or schedule sensitivity indices) is that our indicator is based on the Schedule Risk Baseline concept instead of on cost or schedule baselines. The new metric not only provides information at the beginning of the project, but also while it is underway. Furthermore, the ARI is the only one to offer a normalized result: if we add its value for each activity, the total sum is 100%. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.00078&r= |
| By: | Fernando Acebes; David Poza; Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Varona; Adolfo Lopez-Paredes |
| Abstract: | Earned duration management (EDM) is a methodology for project schedule management (PSM) that can be considered an alternative to earned value management (EVM). EDM provides an estimation of deviations in schedule and a final project duration estimation. There is a key difference between EDM and EVM: In EDM, the value of activities is expressed as work periods; whereas in EVM, value is expressed in terms of cost. In this paper, we present how EDM can be applied to monitor and control stochastic projects. To explain the methodology, we use a real case study with a project that presents a high level of uncertainty and activities with random durations. We analyze the usability of this approach according to the activities network topology and compare the EVM and earned schedule methodology (ESM) for PSM. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.01614&r= |
| By: | Adrian Odenweller; Falko Ueckerdt |
| Abstract: | Green hydrogen is critical for decarbonising hard-to-electrify sectors, but faces high costs and investment risks. Here we define and quantify the green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap, showing that meeting hydrogen expectations will remain challenging despite surging announcements of projects and subsidies. Tracking 137 projects over three years, we identify a wide 2022 implementation gap with only 2% of global capacity announcements finished on schedule. In contrast, the 2030 ambition gap towards 1.5{\deg}C scenarios is gradually closing as the announced project pipeline has nearly tripled to 441 GW within three years. However, we estimate that, without carbon pricing, realising all these projects would require global subsidies of \$1.6 trillion (\$1.2 - 2.6 trillion range), far exceeding announced subsidies. Given past and future implementation gaps, policymakers must prepare for prolonged green hydrogen scarcity. Policy support needs to secure hydrogen investments, but should focus on applications where hydrogen is indispensable. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.07210&r= |
| By: | Achillini, Harry (UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office); Burge, Richard |
| Abstract: | Background: Various parts of the public sector in the UK and elsewhere benefit from access to demand-responsive research services designed to aid decision-making. Before and during the Nigerian elections in 2023, staff at the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) received such support. This was designed to help staff navigate a wide range of fast-moving issues and unprecedent events surrounding the election, such as disruption of traditional election dynamics. Objectives: This evaluation aims to identify the outcomes of demand-responsive research support prior to and during the 2023 elections. It explores the sustainability of identified outcomes as well as the factors that enabled or constrained effectiveness. Methods: This evaluation uses an adapted outcome harvesting approach. Key project documents are reviewed, and semi-structured interviews are conducted with nine project stakeholders. Interviewed stakeholders include both users of the research and stakeholders who contributed to the design or delivery of the intervention. An analytical framework grounded in behavioural science is used to organise findings. Results: The study identifies several instances in which the research informed FCDO thinking and decision-making around the elections, including in areas such as communications and security planning. The research team’s responsiveness, their expertise and perceived independence enabled positive outcomes. Regular engagement between research producers and research users was another important enabler. Outcomes were largely short-term, however, and effects may have been greater had support been provided earlier in FCDO’s planning processes. Conclusions: The evaluation suggests that demand-responsive research can inform public sector decision-making even in fast-moving contexts. Sustained changes in research use are only likely to occur when explicitly targeted by the intervention. The depth and diversity of research teams’ expertise, their willingness to engage in genuine co-design and discussion with research users and the timeliness of outputs are important moderators of effectiveness. |
| Date: | 2024–07–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8wze7&r= |