nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2023‒06‒19
ten papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Cost‒Benefit Analysis for Petrochemical Projects By Philipp Galkin; Dongmei Chen; Colin Ward
  2. OECD Infrastructure Governance Indicators: Conceptual framework, design, methodology and preliminary results By Tenzin Dekyi; Ana Maria Ruiz Rivadeneira; Lorena Cruz
  3. Developing capabilities in smart city ecosystems: a multi-level approach By Gupta, Anushri; Panagiotopoulos, Panos; Bowen, Frances
  4. Coordination on networks with farsighted and myopic agents By Ana Mauleon; Simon Schopohl; Akylai Taalaibekova; Vincent Vannetelbosch
  5. SB 743 Implementation by Local Governments for Land Use Projects By Volker, Jamey M.B. Ph.D; Hosseinzade, Reyhane; Handy, Susan L. Ph.D
  6. Explainer: Planning and building approvals By Murray, Cameron
  7. Robustness of Participatory Budgeting Outcomes: Complexity and Experiments By Niclas Boehmer; Piotr Faliszewski; {\L}ukasz Janeczko; Andrzej Kaczmarczyk
  8. Boosting the Productivity of Agrarian Reform Beneficiaries through Parcelization of Collective Certificate of Land Ownership Awards By Galang, Ivory Myka R.
  9. Scenarios of a desirable and fair energy transition By Dönitz, Ewa; Breitschopf, Barbara; Burghard, Uta
  10. Can artificial intelligence improve the effectiveness of government support policies? By Kim, Minho; Han, Jaepil

  1. By: Philipp Galkin; Dongmei Chen; Colin Ward (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Cost‒benefit analysis (CBA) has been used to assess investment projects for decades with the aim of quantifying their externalities and potential impacts on social welfare. However, the domain where CBA is applied has been primarily limited to direct public financing in several sectors where such impacts are perceived to be the most pronounced. This study explores the applicability of CBA principles to petrochemical investment and utilizes the proposed framework to assess a sample ethylene production project.
    Keywords: Belt and Road, Capital expenditure, Circular Carbon Economy, CO2 emissions
    Date: 2023–04–14
  2. By: Tenzin Dekyi; Ana Maria Ruiz Rivadeneira; Lorena Cruz
    Abstract: The governance of infrastructure can affect how and whether infrastructure projects achieve desired outcomes and contribute to wider policy goals. This paper presents the conceptual framework, design and methodology of the OECD Infrastructure Governance Indicators (IGIs). The IGIs support the implementation and monitoring of the OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Infrastructure. This paper also describes the key findings from the first set of IGIs, which cover three areas: long-term strategic vision for infrastructure; fiscal sustainability, affordability and value for money; and efficient and effective public procurement. It identifies the governance dimensions that are well developed across OECD countries and those that require improvements under each of the three areas.
    Keywords: composite indicators, indicators, infrastructure, infrastructure governance, public procurement, strategic planning, value for money
    JEL: C43 H54 O18 C1
    Date: 2023–06–06
  3. By: Gupta, Anushri; Panagiotopoulos, Panos; Bowen, Frances
    Abstract: Smart city projects require complex coordination of resources, but research on how capabilities form at the city-ecosystem level remains scarce. This article develops a multi-level approach to capability development in smart city ecosystems through an empirical study of London’s city data. We analyse the London case to discover how two ecosystem-level capabilities – data provisioning and data insights – developed through global, configural and shared aggregation processes. We find that the emergence process changes as the smart city ecosystem develops, requiring different coordination and resource mobilisation mechanisms at various stages. We contribute to the capability development and smart city literatures by focusing on ecosystem-level capabilities linked to collective city-level outcomes rather than the capabilities of the leading city authority. Insights from the study are of value to city authorities considering how to scale up and organise smart city initiatives in support of urban development goals.
    Keywords: capabilities; city data ecosystems; multi-level theory; smart cities; urban sustainability; EP/R006865/1; Sage deal
    JEL: J50
    Date: 2023–03–05
  4. By: Ana Mauleon (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain); Simon Schopohl (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain); Akylai Taalaibekova (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Vincent Vannetelbosch (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)
    Abstract: We study a coordination game on a fixed connected network where players have to choose between two projects. Some players are moderate (i.e. they are ex-ante indifferent between both projects) while others are stubborn (i.e. they always choose the same project). Benefits for moderate players are increasing in the number of neighbors who choose the same project. In addition, players are either farsighted or myopic. Farsighted players anticipate the reactions of others while myopic players do not. We show that, when all players are farsighted, full coordination among the moderate players is reached except if there are stubborn players for both projects. When the population is mixed, the set of stable strategy profiles is a refinement of the set of Nash equilibrium strategy profiles. In fact, turning myopic players into farsighted ones eliminates gradually the inefficient Nash equilibria. Finally, we consider a social planner who can improve coordination by means of two policy instruments: adding links to the network (socialization) and/or turning myopic players into farsighted ones (education).
    Keywords: Networks, Coordination problems, Stubborn players, Farsighted players, Stability
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Volker, Jamey M.B. Ph.D; Hosseinzade, Reyhane; Handy, Susan L. Ph.D
    Abstract: In 2018, pursuant to Senate Bill (SB) 743 (2013), the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR) and the California NaturalResources Agency promulgated regulations and technical guidance that eliminated automobile level of service (LOS) as a transportation impact metric for land development projects under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), and replaced it with Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). The authors investigated how local governments have been implementing the LOS-to-VMT shift for land development projects, and how that differs from past practice. They also explored whether local governments monitor the actual VMT impacts from completed land use developments and what methods are available to do so. Their findings indicate that all responding jurisdictions acknowledged the mandatory LOS-to-VMT shift, but were in varying stages ofimplementing the shift. For those jurisdictions that had adopted VMT impact significance thresholds, most adhered closely to OPR’s recommendations. They also mostly tried to use apples-to-apples methods of calculating baseline VMT levels (for setting thresholds) and estimating project-level VMT, often relying on travel demand model outputs for both. However, most jurisdictions gave short shrift to VMT monitoring. Another important aspect of SB 743 implementation is how LOS will continue to be used outside of CEQA. The authors found that jurisdictions uniformly continue to employ LOS outside of CEQA. However, those LOS analyses are not necessarily as comprehensive and expensive as they would have been for CEQA purposes. The authors found a consensus amongst their interviewees that swapping LOS for VMT could streamline development in urban areas. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vehicle miles traveled, VMT estimation, VMT mitigation, VMT monitoring, level of service, CEQA, environmental review
    Date: 2023–05–01
  6. By: Murray, Cameron (The University of Sydney)
    Abstract: There is widespread confusion in policy debates about housing supply and price when it comes to the process of housing development, specifically, who chooses to develop housing and how that housing gets approved by relevant public agencies. The first confusion is that is it commonly assumed or implied that the choice to build housing is made by builders of housing, the construction companies, who want to maximise their turnover. This is wrong. Only property owners can choose to build new homes. The incentive of property owners is not to maximise the rate of new dwelling development, but the total economic return on their property rights over time. The second confusion is to ignore the difference between development approvals (DAs) and building approvals (BAs), sometimes known as construction certificates. Development approvals are given to property owners who choose to apply to assess their proposed project against the planning system if needed for their intended use. They happen at an early stage in the process of developing property, usually prior to pre-sales. They are flexible and while bound by zoning codes, processes exist in the planning system to permit projects that exceed zoning codes, and a property can be granted multiple planning approvals over time. Across the property market, a large buffer stock of projects with development approval exists at any point in time, which allows developers to easily adjust sales rates, and later construction rates, to match highly variable market cycles. Building approvals happen later in the development process, after a planning approval (if required) and after pre-sales have demonstrated market demand. It is the last regulatory step prior to construction and a buffer stock of these approvals is not maintained.
    Date: 2023–05–08
  7. By: Niclas Boehmer; Piotr Faliszewski; {\L}ukasz Janeczko; Andrzej Kaczmarczyk
    Abstract: We study the robustness of approval-based participatory budgeting (PB) rules to random noise in the votes. Our contributions are twofold. First, we study the computational complexity of the #Flip-Bribery problem, where given a PB instance we ask for the number of ways in which we can flip a given number of approvals in the votes, so that a specific project is selected. The idea is that #Flip-Bribery captures the problem of computing the funding probabilities of projects in case random noise is added. Unfortunately, the problem is intractable even for the simplest PB rules. Second, we analyze the robustness of several prominent PB rules (including the basic greedy rule and the Method of Equal Shares) on real-life instances from Pabulib. Since #Flip-Bribery is intractable, we resort to sampling to obtain our results. We quantify the extent to which simple, greedy PB rules are more robust than proportional ones, and we identify three types of (very) non-robust projects in real-life PB instances.
    Date: 2023–05
  8. By: Galang, Ivory Myka R.
    Abstract: This paper identifies the benefits and problems in the subdivision of collective land titles in the Philippines. In particular, it discusses how the parcelization of collective Certificates of Land Ownership Awards (CCLOAs) can improve the agricultural performance of farmers. Baseline survey data from the Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR)’s Project Convergence on Value Chain Enhancement for Rural Growth and Empowerment provide evidence favoring to accelerate the subdivision of CCLOAs. This study encourages the adoption of other rural development strategies, such as farm consolidation, aside from the parcelization of land titles. DAR must also adopt a modern cadaster and record system to improve the country’s agrarian justice delivery system and efficiently implement the parcelization program.
    Keywords: CCLOAs;agrarian reform beneficiaries;agriculture;Project ConVERGE
    Date: 2022
  9. By: Dönitz, Ewa; Breitschopf, Barbara; Burghard, Uta
    Abstract: The paper was created in the context of the project Akzept and focuses on the description of the scenario process and its results in the form of three scenarios for a desirable energy transition. The project aimed at analysing the influence of participation, communication, and selected socioeconomic criteria on the acceptance of the energy transition. The impact of self-supply of electricity and membership in a citizen energy initiative on the acceptance of the energy transition by those who did not participate in this way was also studied. The team conducted two scenario workshops to describe future designs of the energy transition as well as the needs and preferences of society in the form of various future scenarios. One workshop included persons who participated in the form of self-supply or membership in energy initiatives, while the other workshop aimed at socalled non-participants with a general interest in the topic of energy. The workshops comprised a combination of different activities, brainstorming, and discussions in small groups, and contributed to ensure engagement of participants with very different backgrounds throughout the scenario development. The scope for the scenario process was formed by important topics related to the energy transition that can be divided into three groups: individual engagement and decisions, energy transition in the broader context, and involvement as well as decisions in general. The energy transition can be achieved along three different paths, so-called scenarios: bottom-up, acceleration, and passive. The bottom-up scenario emphasises decentralised energy production with transparency and fairness, allowing for genuine participation and co-determination of citizens. It involves many small plants for energy production and allows for self-consumption, with low barriers for citizens to participate. The acceleration scenario prioritises rapid implementation and focuses on becoming independent from energy imports. It places a strong emphasis on regulations, and companies that emit high levels of CO2 have to pay a high price for their emissions. The passive scenario is characterised by a low level of interest from citizens, who display weak acceptance towards the energy transition. Information and transparency are not important, and the government is responsible for deciding on how to achieve the energy transition. The transition occurs at low cost, and energy utilities provide renewable energy at low prices.
    Keywords: foresight, scenarios, participation, energy transition, acceptance
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Kim, Minho; Han, Jaepil
    Abstract: Despite high hopes for artificial intelligence (AI) to generate powerful innovations across the public sphere backed by its strong prediction skills, Korea has not fully brought the technologies into the public sector in tasks like identifying policy target groups and managing follow-up tasks in line with its policy objectives.Recent cases of AI-applied public services in Korea show limited usage, mainly replacing simple repetitive tasks. Few leading countries are trying to apply AI-based analysis to select promising policy target groups to effectively achieve policy goals and follow up on the performance of public projects. While the existing management system for policy performance is mostly about ex-post assessment of project outcomes, the application of AI technologies signifies a shift to data-driven decision-making that uses ex-ante forecasts of policy effects. An analysis of AI-applied recipient selection of small and medium enterprise (SME) policy support programs demonstrated the efficiency of AI in predicting the performance of beneficiary firms after the program and AI's potential to significantly improve the effectiveness of public support by providing helpful information in screening out unfit SMEs. Using firm-level data, this study applies machine learning to various public financing programs (subsidies or loans for SMEs) funded by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups and finds that AI helps predict the growth of recipient firms in the years following policy support. The application of AI in identifying fitting recipients likely to achieve intended objectives may increase project effectiveness. In a KDI survey in 2020, respondents pointed out that what hinders transitioning into a system of AI-applied, data-driven policymaking in the public sector are: 1) incomplete standardization and linkage of policy information between governmental ministries and 2) lack of expertise in technology utilization in the public sector. By developing a strategy to propel a transition into data-driven policymaking in the public sector, coordinated national-level efforts must be made to heighten policy effectiveness across different public fields, including education, health care, public safety, national defense, and business support. One way to adopt AI technologies in the public sector is by designing a policy to support technology adoption for competent public institutions. Support measures may cover system, data platform, security, organizational consulting, training, etc. Detailed strategies are: 1) unifying existing data management systems into one single platform, 2) reorganizing the way government work gets done to enable efficient exchange of policy information, and 3) building a trust-based public-private partnership. By examining the policy cycle from planning and implementation to evaluation, it is important to clarify areas for AI to contribute to policy decision-making. Also, the government needs step-by-step strategies toward data-driven policymaking, such as setting clear project objectives, selecting and sharing data, establishing system and security, and promoting operational transparency.
    Keywords: Artificial intelligence, Public sector, SME policy, South Korea
    Date: 2022

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