nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2023‒02‒06
seven papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Information Cascades and Threshold Implementation: Theory and An Application to Crowdfunding By Lin William Cong; Yizhou Xiao
  2. Industry Collaborations of Research Teams: Are They Penalized or Rewarded in the Grant Evaluation Process ? By Sila Öcalan-Özel; Patrick Llerena
  3. Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation By Thales A. P. West; Sven Wunder; Erin O. Sills; Jan B\"orner; Sami W. Rifai; Alexandra N. Neidermeier; Andreas Kontoleon
  4. Mobilizing innovation policy in the pursuit of net zero emissions: An evolutionary perspective By Jan Fagerberg
  5. Knowledge spillovers from clean and emerging technologies in the UK By Martin, Ralf; Verhoeven, Dennis
  6. A Rapid Acquisition Strategy in Light of Recent Changes in the Global Security Environment: Policy Implications and Tasks for the Korean By Jang, Won-Joon; Song, Jae Pil
  7. Final assessment report. Assessment of development account project 1819 AH: regional observatory on sustainable energy for Latin America and the Caribbean region By -

  1. By: Lin William Cong; Yizhou Xiao
    Abstract: Economic interactions, such as crowdfunding, often involve sequential actions, observational learning, and contingent project implementation. We incorporate all-or-nothing thresholds in a canonical model of information cascades. Early supporters effectively delegate their decisions to a "gatekeeper, " resulting in uni-directional cascades without herding on rejections. Project proposers consequently can charge higher prices. Proposal feasibility, project selection, and information aggregation all improve, even when agents can wait. Equilibrium outcomes depend on the crowd size, and project implementation and information aggregation achieve efficiency in the large-crowd limit. Our key insights remain robust under thresholds in dollar amounts, alternative equilibrium selection, among other model extensions.
    JEL: D81 D83 G12 G14
    Date: 2023–01
  2. By: Sila Öcalan-Özel (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Patrick Llerena (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between the industry collaborations of grant applicant teams and the outcomes of a multistage grant evaluation process. We studied this relationship by focusing on two possible channels of impact of industry engagement—team diversity (or the diversity effect) and prior collaboration experience (or the experience effect)—and examined their influence on the evaluators' decision by using the proxies of direct industry engagement (i.e., the involvement of a company-affiliated researcher in the grant applicant team) and indirect industry engagement (i.e., joint publications with a company-affiliated researcher prior to the grant application), respectively. We analyzed data extracted from the application and reviewed materials of a multidisciplinary, pan-European research funding scheme—European Collaborative Research (EUROCORES)—for the period 2002–2010 and conducted an empirical investigation of its three consecutive grant evaluation stages at the team level. We found that teams presenting an indirect engagement were more likely to pass the first stage of selection, whereas no significant relationships were found at any of the three evaluation stages for teams presenting a direct engagement. Our findings point to the heterogeneity of the decision-making process within a multistage grant evaluation scheme and suggest that the policy objective of fostering university–industry collaboration does not significantly impact the funding process.
    Keywords: Industry collaboration, Diversity, Prior experience, Grant peer review, Research funding
    Date: 2021–10–21
  3. By: Thales A. P. West; Sven Wunder; Erin O. Sills; Jan B\"orner; Sami W. Rifai; Alexandra N. Neidermeier; Andreas Kontoleon
    Abstract: Carbon offsets from voluntarily avoided deforestation projects are generated based on performance vis-\`a-vis ex-ante deforestation baselines. We examined the impacts of 27 forest conservation projects in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We compare the project baselines with ex-post counterfactuals based on observed deforestation in control sites. Our findings show that most projects have not reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. Methodologies for constructing deforestation baselines for carbon-offset interventions thus need urgent revisions in order to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the conservation interventions, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.
    Date: 2023–01
  4. By: Jan Fagerberg (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo)
    Abstract: Transforming the economy to a state consistent with net-zero emissions is a very demanding task. Extensive change, i.e., innovation, in the way energy is provided, distributed, and used across all parts of society will be required. An important question, discussed in this paper, is how policy – and particularly innovation policy - can contribute to mobilize innovation for this purpose. It is pointed out that while innovation solves problems (in response to challenges), it also creates novel opportunities that policymakers may exploit to further their aims. The analysis presented in the paper shows that a global green shift, centred on production and use of renewable energy, is - greatly helped by past policies in a few countries - already well underway, and it is argued that this may create very important opportunities for policy makers in their attempts to support (and speed up) the transition. It is concluded that for policy to succeed in its aims, two elements are essential, (1) a broadly supported vision or strategy for change, exploiting the opportunities offered by the global green shift, and (2) a set of projects – or missions – aimed at addressing specific challenges of relevance for the countries in question. However, for such projects or missions to be successful, relevant stakeholders – also outside national boarders – may need to be included, challenging received innovation policy governance.
    Date: 2023–01
  5. By: Martin, Ralf; Verhoeven, Dennis
    Abstract: The UK government has committed to increase R&D support for clean technologies in an effort to meet its net-zero target by 2050. The opportunity cost of such programs crucially depends on the value of knowledge spillovers that accrue from clean relative to other (emerging) technologies. Using patent information to measure the value of direct and indirect knowledge spillovers, we derive estimates for the expected economic returns of subsidising a particular technology field. Our method allows comparing fields by the returns a hypothetical additional subsidy would have generated within the UK or globally. Clean technologies are top-ranked in terms of within-UK returns, with Tidal and Offshore Wind showing particularly high returns. In terms of global returns, emerging technologies such as Wireless, as well as Electrical Engineering outperform Clean by a small margin. We also find that cross-border knowledge spillovers are important for all technology fields, with global return rates over ten times larger than within-UK ones. In sum, our results suggest that the opportunity cost of R&D support programs for clean innovation in the UK is low at worst.
    Keywords: innovation; knowledge spillovers; clean technology; innovation policy; patent data
    JEL: R14 J01 J1
    Date: 2022–03–02
  6. By: Jang, Won-Joon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Song, Jae Pil (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: Today, the global state of affairs is extremely volatile, not least because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. In this report, we survey the recent changes in the global security environment with a view to identifying policy implications and tasks for the Korean defense industry. There are three main takeaways from the current state of global affairs for the Korean defense industry. First, Korea lacks military cybersecurity capabilities for dealing with the increasingly digital nature of warfare today, including hybrid warfare and gray-zone strategies. Second, efforts should be increased to use the military modernization policies of other developed countries as benchmarks and to develop cutting-edge weapons systems on the basis of priorities focusing on the effective response to threats from neighboring countries. Third, efforts should be commenced to reform and innovate Korea’s rigid weapons acquisition system, notwithstanding the high cost and lengthy periods of time involved, in the model of innovative systems in other developed countries. In order to strengthen Korea’s military cybersecurity industry, the government will need to earmark funding for cyberweapons systems, establish a new unit or agency within the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) tasked with cybersecurity, and introduce a system for analysis and training in relation to cyberattacks and cyber-defense. The Korean government also needs to focus on developing cutting-edge weapons systems in response to arms buildups in neighboring countries, particularly with a view toward establishing a multi-tiered missile defense system on an accelerated timeline and enhancing capabilities for intelligence-gathering and surveillance, including by space-based means. Finally, the Korean government needs to push for an overhaul of the conventional weapons acquisition system in the model of the United States’ Middle Tier Acquisition (MTA) program. This requires tailoring pilot projects for rapid acquisition to meet specific needs, guaranteeing follow-up manufacturing opportunities when pilot projects succeed and meet certain criteria — including major weapons systems and their performance enhancements in the scope of rapid acquisition —and defining relevant roles and responsibilities, accordingly.
    Keywords: Korean Defense Industry; Military Cybersecurity Industry; Cyber-defense
    JEL: L64
    Date: 2022–03–31
  7. By: -
    Date: 2022–05

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