nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2022‒12‒05
eleven papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Project Management of the Future - Exploit the Potential of Megatrends and Digitalization By Wittrich, Agnes
  2. An Assessment of the U.S. Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program: A Study of Project Failure By Link, Albert; Swann, Christopher; van Hasselt, Martijn
  3. Funding public projects: A case for the Nash product rule By Florian Brandl; Felix Brandt; Matthias Greger; Dominik Peters; Christian Stricker; Warut Suksompong
  4. Understanding how policy settings affect developer decisions By Rowley, Steven; Leishman, Chris; Olatunji, Oluwole; Zuo, Jian; Crowe, Adam
  5. Chinese lending specifics and projects in the Caucasus region: A look into project-level data By Kalkschmied, Katja
  6. Delivering Urban Mass Transit—The Case of Lahore, Pakistan By Khan, Muhammad Salar; Jamil, Kamil; Malik, Ammar A.
  7. Olympic projects to leverage collaborative sport policies. The case of the partnership between the French cycling federation and Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines community. By Clément Lopez; Mathieu Djaballah; Dominique Charrier
  8. A study on financial mechanisms to develop the power system in Vietnam By Minh Ha-Duong
  9. BMF Collaborative Project 4: Urban residents’ biodiversity belief, perception, and consumption of animal-based products By Mindsponge, AISDL
  10. BMF Collaborative Project 5: Mindsponge-based investigation into households’ financial resilience during the Covid-19 crisis By Mindsponge, AISDL
  11. Recognizing Local Leaders as an Anti-Corruption Strategy: Experimental and Ethnographic Evidence from Uganda By Buntaine, Mark T; Bagabo, Alex; Bangerter, Tanner; Bukuluki, Paul; Daniels, Brigham

  1. By: Wittrich, Agnes
    Abstract: The paper is a call for project performers of the future to train their sensitivity for the emerging of megatrends, to recognize their potential and to use the opportunities they offer for the further development of project management. This theoretical study applies as method the systematic literature review to show how megatrends and digital transformation impact the discipline and how their potential can be utilized for its progress. Project management cannot withdraw from influence of the megatrends. The degree of their impact on the project management processes may differ, but they constitute the framework which supports the formation of reliable predictions regarding the direction in which this discipline is moving.
    Keywords: digitalization,megatrends,future,project management
    JEL: M14 M16
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Link, Albert (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); Swann, Christopher (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); van Hasselt, Martijn (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: In 2000 and again in 2012, the U.S. Congress charged the National Research Council (NRC) within the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to study how the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program has stimulated technological innovation and used small businesses to meet Federal research and development needs, and to make recommendations for improvements in the SBIR program. Using project data collected by the NRC, we assert that an important assessment metric not previously considered by the NRC in its reports to Congress relates to the failure rate of funded Phase II research projects. Our paper identifies a number of covariates associated with project failure, and we make a recommendation that program managers might decrease the likelihood of project failure if funded firms can be given relevant information about how to contact angel investors, venture capitalists, and private investors, and how to present to them a proposal to obtain additional research investment dollars.
    Keywords: Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR); project failure; R&D; program assessment;
    JEL: O22 O31 O32 O38
    Date: 2022–08–24
  3. By: Florian Brandl (HCM - Hausdorff Center for Mathematics - Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn); Felix Brandt (TUM - Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne]); Matthias Greger (TUM - Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne]); Dominik Peters (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Christian Stricker (TUM - Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne]); Warut Suksompong (NUS - National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: We study a mechanism design problem where a community of agents wishes to fund public projects via voluntary monetary contributions by the community members. This serves as a model for public expenditure without an exogenously available budget, such as participatory budgeting or voluntary tax programs, as well as donor coordination when interpreting charities as public projects and donations as contributions. Our aim is to identify a mutually beneficial distribution of the individual contributions. In the preference aggregation problem that we study, agents with linear utility functions over projects report the amount of their contribution, and the mechanism determines a socially optimal distribution of the money. We identify a specific mechanism-the Nash product rule-which picks the distribution that maximizes the product of the agents' utilities. This rule is Pareto efficient and incentivizes agents to contribute their entire budget while spending each agent's contribution only on projects the agent finds acceptable.
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Rowley, Steven; Leishman, Chris; Olatunji, Oluwole; Zuo, Jian; Crowe, Adam
    Abstract: This research examined how policy settings and new construction technologies and processes affect developer decisions to provide private sector housing supply and might improve affordability. The complexity of the development process, the structure of development organisations, the variety of products delivered, and land ownership issues mean the development decision-making process varies by organisation and site by site. Therefore, it is too simplistic to assume policy settings will have exactly the same impact on each and every developer and on each and every site. Development projects can take many years and generally developers estimate what their products would sell for in the current market using comparable evidence to determine potential sales prices and then apply a revenue escalation figure to try and forecast the actual sales price on project completion. This is fraught with difficulty due to price fluctuations even in the short term, let alone on development projects which may span 10 years. Developers usually adopt a conservative approach to price escalation to avoid overestimating revenues and delivering inflated return projections. The second biggest risk factor identified by interviewees was the planning process. Planning policy settings determine what a developer can do on a site. This means that the political stance of the local planning authority can actually deter a developer from operating across the whole of an LGA. The potential for timelines to blow out or last-minute changes forced upon developers increases risks and can reduce return, leading to developers avoiding certain areas. Modelling shows a more efficient development approval process, including planning, infrastructure and environmental approvals, which reduces timeframes has the potential to provide a major boost to project profitability.
    Date: 2022–08–24
  5. By: Kalkschmied, Katja
    Abstract: The Caucasus region has experienced an increasing inflow of Chinese official development finance in the last twenty years. The inflow accelerated after the countries of the Caucasus region became participants in the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese finance into Eurasia aims to build energy and economic corridors linking the European and Asian continents. Natural resource endowments and the geographic location between the two continents are favorable for these ambitions, and so are recent geopolitical developments. The war between Russia and Ukraine revokes new interest in the Middle Corridor energy and goods transportation routes running via the Caspian Sea and the Southern Caucasus. Much is to win from the TransCaucasus corridors for China, the European Union, and the Southern Caucasus countries but also for Kazakhstan and Turkey. Much is to lose also. This article infers on Chinese endeavors and lending specifics in the Caucasus region by looking at project-level data from the years 2000-20017. It concludes that the Southern Caucasus countries need to strategically manage the development cooperation offers from China and other powers to make the new interest in the region beneficial for them. This requires taking measures to ensure that foreign-financed projects meet domestic needs and interests and become effective for domestic development.
    Keywords: Development finance,Caucasus,China,BRI
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Khan, Muhammad Salar; Jamil, Kamil; Malik, Ammar A.
    Abstract: The case of Lahore’s Bus Rapid Transit and Mass Transit investments in this Chapter documents a series of challenges: overlapping roles and responsibilities across a multitude of uncoordinated authorities; proactive opposition to urban developments by civil society groups and opposition political parties; and large-scale untargeted subsidies resulting in unsustainable operational losses. Projects like Lahore Rapid Mass Transit System (LRMTS) involve many conflicting decisions, competing stakeholders, equally appealing alternatives, and booming budgets. Such projects require careful analysis. Multiple lenses—from urban policy, transport policy, and public policy process to public administration theory and public finance—can be employed to analyze these projects. For any such project to be successfully designed and implemented, all stakeholders would have to set aside political and cognitive biases and other narrow interests, prioritize organizational values, and place atop public interest. Finally, any similar project in the region would demand careful mitigation planning, judicious financing schemes, strong historical heritage protection, transparency, and, lastly, a robust in-house capacity to ensure the maintenance of the infrastructure.
    Date: 2022–11–15
  7. By: Clément Lopez (Université Paris-Saclay); Mathieu Djaballah (Université Paris-Saclay); Dominique Charrier (Université Paris-Saclay)
    Abstract: This article questions the leveraging effect of Olympic bids in kind of collaborative governance, by articulating federal-local interests. It is based on a case study of the collaborative relation between the Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Agglomeration Community and the French cycling federation from 2000 to 2020. The contribution retraces the local collaboration process in a specific context: first showing the role the 2012 Olympic bid played in the implementation of a federal-local partnership, 2nd explaining in which extent the 2024 Olympic bid has been used to foster the structuration of this partnership. This work uses Kingdon' streams theory to put in light the capacity of Olympic bids to open up ‘policy windows' for the implementation of collaborative sport policies.
    Abstract: Le présent article interroge la capacité des candidatures olympiques à créer les conditions de l'articulation entre les politiques sportives fédérales et locales. Il s'appuie sur un cas d'étude portant sur la relation entre Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (un territoire intercommunal situé à 20 kilomètres de Paris) et la Fédération française de cyclisme entre 2000 et 2020. La contribution retrace le processus de collaboration entre ces deux organisations dans les contextes de candidature parisienne aux Jeux Olympiques et Paralympiques de 2012 et de 2024. En s'appuyant sur la force explicative des dynamiques locales, les auteurs mobilisent la théorie des flux de Kingdon (1984) pour souligner le rôle déterminant des candidatures olympiques dans la convergence des flux des problèmes, de la politique et des politiques publiques. Celles-ci favorisent donc l'ouverture de fenêtres d'opportunité vers la mise en place de politiques sportives partenariales.
    Keywords: Jeux Olympiques,cyclisme,gouvernance,politique sportive locale,installations sportives Olympic Games,cycling,governance,local sport policies,sport facilities
    Date: 2022–10–18
  8. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition)
    Abstract: Vietnam's commercial electricity demand grew by 9.6% per year during 2011-2020. MOIT forecasts that the average annual investment cost for the power system over 2021-2030 will be around 9.0-12.6 billion USD per year for generation sources and 1.5-1.6 billion USD for the grid. This article discusses the financial options to mobilize this capital. The private sector's appetite for financing new thermal power projects is low for coal and uncertain for gas; the current energy price crisis suggests deferring any new LNG power plant openings until after 2026. There, the state-owned sector takes the lead. For renewable energy, private investors have shown eagerness to finance new solar and onshore/nearshore wind projects under the feed-in-tariff regime. The subsequent mechanisms will be market-based: auctions and direct power purchase agreements. Offshore wind projects allow the state-owned oil and gas industry to invest jointly with international private developers and reorient its strategy in response to the energy transition. Developing the green bond market is an opportunity for Vietnamese banks. State-owned enterprises can use them to raise money through non-sovereign debt. Finally, a gradual increase in electricity prices will improve the sector's ability to finance the necessary power system expansion.
    Keywords: Energy transition,Policy,Finance,LNG,Markets
    Date: 2022–10
  9. By: Mindsponge, AISDL
    Abstract: The AISDL team discloses the pre-peer-reviewed results of a research project exploring how people’s belief and perceptions of biodiversity affect their attitudes and behaviors toward consumption. The research project was contributed by four authors. The project’s outcome has been sent to the academic journal for peer review. The preprint of the research outcome can be found at the following URL:
    Date: 2022–10–10
  10. By: Mindsponge, AISDL
    Abstract: The AISDL team discloses the pre-peer-reviewed results of a research project exploring the effects of financial literacy and accessibility to financial information on the financial resilience of Vietnamese households through the lens of an information-processing perspective. The research project was contributed by seven authors. The project’s outcome has been sent to the academic journal for peer review. The preprint of the research outcome can be found at the following URL:
    Date: 2022–10–10
  11. By: Buntaine, Mark T; Bagabo, Alex; Bangerter, Tanner; Bukuluki, Paul; Daniels, Brigham
    Abstract: Conventional anti-corruption approaches focus on detecting and punishing the misuse of public office. Recognizing that these approaches are often ineffective in settings where social norms do not support reporting on and punishing corruption, we implemented a field experiment in Uganda that offered elected, local leaders the chance to earn positive, public recognition for overseeing development projects according to legal guidelines. We then conducted a second field experiment that informed other leaders and members of the public about the award winners. Offering leaders the chance to earn recognition did not improve the management of public projects or change leaders' norms about corruption. Informing other leaders and residents about the award winners also did not change behaviors or attitudes related to corruption. A paired ethnographic study shows that the possibility for recognition generated excitement, but was not able to overcome constraints on local leaders' ability to manage public projects. Our study provides some of the first experimental evidence about using non-financial incentives to improve the performance of public officials. The results imply that non-financial incentives are at best complementary to systemic changes in public financial management, particularly in settings with pervasive corruption and governance challenges.
    Date: 2022–10–14

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