nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2022‒11‒21
sixteen papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Hidden inefficiency: Strategic inflation of project schedules By Lorko, Matej; Servátka, Maroš; Zhang, Le
  2. From LOS to VMT: Repurposing Impact Fee Programs Since Adoption of SB 743 By Barbour, Elisa
  3. Setting Interim Deadlines to Persuade By Maxim Senkov
  4. Participatory management and sustainable use of groundwater: a review of the Andhra Pradesh Farmer-Managed Groundwater Systems project in India By Reddy, V. R.; Reddy, M. S.; Pavelic, Paul
  5. Small and Disadvantaged Business Enterprise (SB/DBE) Issues in Caltrans Contract and Bid Process By Tommelein, Iris D. PhD; Gazzaniga, Tyler
  6. Impact tracking: a practitioner-developed approach to scaling agricultural innovation in Ethiopia By Child, K.; Desta, G.; Douthwaite, B.; Haileslassie, Amare; van Rooyen, A.; Tamene, L.; Uhlenbrook, Stefan
  7. Using Experimental Evidence to Inform Firm Support Programs in Developing Countries By Grover,Arti Goswami; Imbruno,Michele
  8. Accelerating rural energy access for agricultural transformation: contribution of the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems to transforming food, land and water systems in a climate crisis By Magalhaes, M.; Ringler, C.; Verma, Shilp; Schmitter, Petra
  9. Social Distancing and Risk Taking: Evidence from a Team Game Show * By Jean-Marc Bourgeon; José de Sousa; Alexis Noir-Luhalwe
  10. Corporate sustainability, investment, and capital structure By Michi Nishihara
  11. Green hydrogen opportunities for emerging and developing economies: Identifying success factors for market development and building enabling conditions By Joseph Cordonnier; Deger Saygin
  12. Innovative design on the shop floor of the Saint-Nazaire Airbus factory By Honorine Harlé; Sophie Hooge; Pascal Le Masson; Kevin Levillain; Benoit Weil; Guillaume Bulin; Thierry Ménard
  13. Perspectives of Armenian: Iranian economic relations within Belt and Road Initiative By Grigoryan, Karen; Arpanahi, Ali
  14. Measuring the impact of integrated systems research: promising approaches and why CGIAR needs to care By Johnson, N.
  15. How agricultural research for development achieves developmental outcomes: learning lessons to inform One CGIAR science and technology policy research By Douthwaite, B.; Child, K.
  16. Rebuilding Ukraine: How the EU should support Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery By Bergmann, Julian; Romanyshyn, Iulian

  1. By: Lorko, Matej; Servátka, Maroš; Zhang, Le
    Abstract: Establishing realistic project plans and completing the resulting business projects on schedule is crucial for organizations striving to effectively utilize their resources. However, incentivizing on-time project delivery may result in moral hazard, as people could respond to estimation accuracy incentives by strategically inflating duration estimates and subsequently prolonging project execution. While the project is delivered on time, the resources are underutilized. We conjecture that the possibility of moral hazard can be mitigated by introducing speed incentives in addition to the schedule accuracy incentives. We conduct a diagnostic test of the effect of accuracy and speed incentives on the process of project estimation and delivery. Our study presents direct empirical evidence that the incentive structure rewarding solely the estimation accuracy can result in hidden inefficiency due to inflated estimates and deliberately slower project execution. However, when speed incentives are implemented alongside estimation accuracy incentives, the estimates are significantly lower and the project is completed more quickly, without compromising the schedule accuracy or output quality. Aligning the objectives of a project owner with those of planners, by incentivizing the planners for both estimation accuracy and quick project completion, fosters more compressed but still accurate and reliable project schedules, and accelerated project delivery.
    Keywords: project management, project planning, time management, duration estimation, moral hazard
    JEL: C91 D82 D83 O21 O22
    Date: 2022–10–15
  2. By: Barbour, Elisa
    Abstract: This white paper assesses how cities are modifying transportation impact fees in response to Senate Bill (SB) 743, adopted in 2013 to orient environmental review of transportation impacts of development projects and plans in California to support sustainable development. SB 743 and its implementing guidelines eliminated “level of service” (LOS) standards for automobile traffic delay as an environmental impact to be addressed under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), recommending instead that localities and other lead agencies responsible for CEQA review analyze, and if possible, mitigate impacts on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) instead. As cities proceed to implement SB 743, some are going further than the minimum required to analyze and mitigate for VMT at the development project level. Instead, they are also pursuing “programmatic” approaches, including altering citywide impact fees imposed on developers, to support more systematic analysis and mitigation than is possible at the project level alone. Based on public documents research and interviews with consultants and planners, this paper identifies three basic approaches that cities are taking to design impact fees in conjunction with their policy approaches for addressing SB 743: first, to design impact fee programs that fund VMT-reducing projects, but without employing a VMT “nexus” (the nexus is the basis for identifying impacts to be addressed by the program); second, to employ a VMT nexus for identifying facilities need and cost allocation; and third, to design a fee program that links to systematic CEQA-reviewed VMT analysis in the General Plan and/or other related CEQA-reviewed city wide policy documents. In this latter approach, cities may or may not design their fee program to fund VMT-reducing projects; indeed, this approach may help facilitate a more traditional, LOS-based fee program. This outcome can happen if a city analyzes VMT systematically for the General Plan, and then adopts a “statement of overriding considerations” under CEQA, which allows for development projects to “tier” off the programmatic environmental review so as to avoid the need for conducting cumulative VMT impacts analysis. This approach may facilitate more systematic integration of VMT and LOS analysis at the citywide level, but it does not support SB 743 goals for supporting VMT-reducing projects and programs. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Law, Senate Bill 743, environmental review, CEQA, transportation impact fees, VMT reduction, sustainable transportation
    Date: 2022–11–01
  3. By: Maxim Senkov
    Abstract: A principal funds a multistage project and retains the right to cut the funding if it stagnates at some point. An agent wants to convince the principal to fund the project as long as possible, and can design the flow of information about the progress of the project in order to persuade the principal. If the project is sufficiently promising ex ante, then the agent commits to providing only the good news that the project is accomplished. If the project is not promising enough ex ante, the agent persuades the principal to start the funding by committing to provide not only good news but also the bad news that a project milestone has not been reached by an interim deadline. I demonstrate that the outlined structure of optimal information disclosure holds irrespective of the agent's profit share, benefit from the flow of funding, and the common discount rate.
    Date: 2022–10
  4. By: Reddy, V. R.; Reddy, M. S.; Pavelic, Paul (International Water Management Institute)
    Keywords: Groundwater management; Participatory management; Water use efficiency; Sustainable use; Farmer-led irrigation; Water systems; Project evaluation; Capacity development; Awareness-raising; Technology transfer; Behavioural changes; Groundwater extraction; PumpingKeywords: Wells; Groundwater level; Hydrological factors; Water policies; Regulations; Equity; Crop production; Water budget; Institutions; Funding; Non-governmental organizations; Water user associations; Livelihoods; Food security; Socioeconomic aspects; Rural communities; Villages
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Tommelein, Iris D. PhD; Gazzaniga, Tyler
    Abstract: This Preliminary Investigation document, on one hand, outlines challenges encountered by SB/DBEs in the process of getting certified, entering into a contract, executing on projects or delivering services, and sustaining or growing their business. On the other hand, it summarizes OCR’s current ongoing efforts that are aiming to expand contracting with SB/DBEs. Along the way it identifies opportunities that warrant more in-depth investigation for OCR to target its programming and resource allocation as it aims to reduce obstacles or otherwise improve the ability of SBs/DBEs to successfully contract with Caltrans.
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2022–09–01
  6. By: Child, K.; Desta, G.; Douthwaite, B.; Haileslassie, Amare (International Water Management Institute); van Rooyen, A.; Tamene, L.; Uhlenbrook, Stefan (International Water Management Institute)
    Keywords: Agricultural innovation; Scaling; Impact assessment; Agricultural research for development; Project evaluation; Policies; Research programmes; Funding; Partnerships; Community involvement; Watershed management; Irrigation equipment; Taxes; Landscape; Data management; Stakeholders; Collaboration; Case studies
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Grover,Arti Goswami; Imbruno,Michele
    Abstract: Countries design programs for supporting firms, with varying levels of success. Firmgrowth is constrained by several factors, such as low firm capabilities (e.g. management), availability of finance, andaccess to markets. Based on the available experimental evidence on firm support programs in developing countries,this paper makes three broad observations. First, there are huge knowledge gaps in understanding the success ofinstruments that alleviate firm constraints. Various instruments, such as early-stage equity finance, incubators,and accelerators, remain untested due to the lack of good design, results framework, or monitoring and evaluationsystems and so on. Second, since these interventions are expensive, policy makers expect such programs to be designedmore effectively to pursue their objectives. However, evidence provides little guidance on the criterion for firmselection because the existing evaluations of instruments reveal little information on the heterogeneous impact byfirm characteristics, such as the age, size, sector, and locationof firms. Third, most interventions seek to address only one of the broad constraints faced by firms. To thisend, the paper concludes with a novel proposal for a firm support program that attempts to sequentially addressmultiple constraints to firm growth. This program will be implemented in Malawi through the "Financial Inclusionand Entrepreneurship Scaling" project.
    Keywords: Financial Sector Policy,Skills Development and Labor Force Training,Private Sector Economics,Private Sector Development Law,Marketing,Labor Markets
    Date: 2020–10–28
  8. By: Magalhaes, M.; Ringler, C.; Verma, Shilp (International Water Management Institute); Schmitter, Petra (International Water Management Institute)
    Keywords: Agriculture; Transformation; Energy policies; Rural areas; CGIAR; Research programmes; Agrifood systems; Land use; Water systems; Climate change; Energy consumption; Solar energy; Irrigation systems; Groundwater; Electricity; Pumps; Technology; Investment; Innovation; Pilot projects; Environmental sustainability; Emission reduction; Resource recovery; Reuse; Income generation; Business models; Capacity development; Smallholders; Farmers; Women; Food security
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Jean-Marc Bourgeon (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech, X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique); José de Sousa (Université Paris-Saclay, RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - Université Paris-Saclay, LIEPP - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire d'évaluation des politiques publiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Alexis Noir-Luhalwe (Université Paris-Saclay, RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - Université Paris-Saclay)
    Abstract: We examine the risky choices of pairs of contestants in a popular radio game show in France. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the show, held in person, had to switch to an all-remote format. We find that such an exogenous change in social context affected risk-taking behavior. Remotely, pairs take far fewer risks when the stakes are high than in the flesh. This behavioral difference is consistent with prosocial behavior theories, which argue that the nature of social interactions influences risky choices. Our results suggest that working from home may reduce participation in profitable but risky team projects.
    Keywords: COVID-19,Social Distancing,Social Pressure,Decision Making,Risk
    Date: 2022–09–30
  10. By: Michi Nishihara (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
    Abstract: This study develops a real options model in which a firm invests in either a sustainable project or an unsustainable project. The sustainable project requires a high investment cost and yields cash flows perpetually, whereas the unsustainable project requires a low investment cost and yields cash flows until a random maturity. The random termination of cash flows reflects the project fs environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risk. In the model, the optimal investment choice and timing are analytically derived, and the effects of key parameters on the choice are also examined. Higher ESG risk, growth rate, and volatility, and lower discount rate encourage sustainable investing mainly through their impacts on the net present value (NPV) and timing option value. The less sustainable firm chooses higher leverage to enjoy a greater benefit of debt financing. Therefore, access to debt financing and a higher corporate tax rate (tax shield) discourage sustainable investing.
    Keywords: sustainability; ESG; real options; capital structure.
    JEL: G13 G31 G32
    Date: 2022–11
  11. By: Joseph Cordonnier (OECD); Deger Saygin (OECD)
    Abstract: Hydrogen is a cross-cutting energy vector that can help to decarbonise various end-use sectors. At least two-thirds of the global hydrogen production is projected to be green hydrogen by 2050, supporting the transition to a net-zero emissions global energy system. This paper presents a value chain approach to identify priority areas for developing national hydrogen strategies, focussing on emerging and developing economies. Further, the analysis highlights success factors for green hydrogen projects, based on eight case studies covering applications in industrial, transport and power generation sectors. The paper summarises the enabling conditions and financing solutions that can spur the green hydrogen market creation and growth.
    Keywords: green hydrogen case studies, hydrogen roadmap, hydrogen value chain, industry decarbonisation, levelised cost of hydrogen
    JEL: L20 O14 O25 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2022–11–09
  12. By: Honorine Harlé (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sophie Hooge (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pascal Le Masson (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Kevin Levillain (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benoit Weil (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Guillaume Bulin; Thierry Ménard
    Abstract: In this study, we examine innovative design practices on the Saint-Nazaire Airbus factory shop floor. The engineering and manufacturing engineering departments are in charge of the design of products and their industrialization, even though the factory is usually seen as a place for manufacturing, rather than design. However, there is also design activity in a factory that is devoted to the optimization of manufacturing processes. In this study, we highlight an alternative form of design that relies on a collective exploratory approach. A total of 30 projects from the Saint-Nazaire Airbus factory were selected and analyzed. Of these, two were selected as case studies to illustrate the factory's different design methods. Subsequently, quantitative analysis provided evidence of the existence of two design regimes: closed prescription and expandable prescription. The resulting solutions were examined, and it was found that designs under the expandable prescription regime provided more robust long-term solutions. This study offers new perspectives for reexamining innovation in manufacturing and exploring design activity on factory shop floors.
    Keywords: Design theory,Manufacturing,Factory,Industry 4.0,Innovative design
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Grigoryan, Karen; Arpanahi, Ali
    Abstract: Armenia-Iran North South Transport corridor is vital for Iran and Armenia and also for all parties involved. Recently, India increased its interest in Armenia and would like to see the INSTC passing through the Armenian territories, keeping in mind that Armenia is also the only country in the EAEU that has a land border with Iran. Taking into account Iran's desire to become a full member of the EAEU in the future, as well as India's interest in the EAEU structure and possible future membership, Armenia's chances of joining regional trade projects would be high. North South Transport Corridor route via India, Iran, Armenia, Georgia and Russia. This route is 30% cheaper and 40% shorter than the current traditional route. A country with a small domestic market like Armenia, of course, needs to expand its economic and trade ties with other countries in the world. The "One Belt, One Road" initiative can provide such an opportunity. An opportunity will also be created for the development of the Armenian transport infrastructure. Armenia aimed to construct the "North-South" transport road, 550-km long, to facilitate communication with Iran and Georgia and beyond.
    Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative,Armenia,Iran,China,India,trade,transport infrastructure,Silk RoadRoute
    Date: 2022
  14. By: Johnson, N.
    Keywords: Agricultural research for development; Integrated systems; Systems research; Impact assessment; CGIAR; Research programmes; Monitoring and evaluation; Natural resources management; Investment; Funding; Organizational learning; Food systems; Land use; Water systems; Remote sensing
    Date: 2021
  15. By: Douthwaite, B.; Child, K.
    Keywords: Agricultural research for development; CGIAR; Research programmes; Impact assessment; Monitoring and evaluation; Agricultural innovation; Technology; Policy innovation; Agronomy; Capacity development; Advisory services; Soil quality; Cassava; Seed certification; Fertilizers; Phytosanitary measures; Solar energy; Irrigation systems; Electricity supplies; Donors; Funding; State intervention; Farmers; Databases; Models; Case studies
    Date: 2021
  16. By: Bergmann, Julian; Romanyshyn, Iulian
    Abstract: Russia's brutal war against Ukraine has disastrous consequences for the country. Although an end to the war is currently not in sight, it is already clear that a huge international effort will be required to support Ukraine's reconstruction. At the Ukraine Recovery Conference in July, the Ukrainian government presented a National Recovery Plan that envisions a deep modernisation of the country. The Ukrainian government's reconstruction priorities are well in sync with the European Union's (EU) ambition to promote Ukraine's transformation towards an EU member state and to foster the country's green and digital transition. The National Recovery Plan fully embraces the "build back better" principle and closely aligns the reconstruction plans with the EU's norms and standards. The EU, on its part, is willing to bear a major share of the international effort required for Ukraine's recovery. However, the same degree of unity and resolve that the EU showed when forging its initial response to the war will be needed to realise a strong EU leadership role in supporting Ukraine's long-term reconstruction. To provide a sustainable basis for Ukraine's recovery, the EU and member states need to combine ad hoc humanitarian assistance with predictable, long-term support for reconstruction. In doing so, they should consider the following key recommendations: Adopt a two-phase approach to reconstruction. The modernisation and transformation of Ukraine towards an EU member state will take several years. At the same time, the vast infrastructure losses that Ukraine is currently facing need to be addressed urgently, ideally before the winter sets in. Hence, international donors should prioritise the reconstruction of infrastructure related to basic needs, including schools, hospitals, housing, electricity grids and roads. In a second phase, deeper modernisation efforts and institutional reforms that are of relevance for eventual accession to the EU should follow. Set up adequate governance mechanisms for the joint management and oversight of reconstruction efforts. The Ukrainian government and the EU should set up a coordination platform that also involves other international partners and Ukrainian civil society actors. This platform should then develop institutional governance mechanisms for the management and oversight of projects, and ensure close coordination between the Ukrainian government and international partners. Negotiate a comprehensive agreement on the EU's contribution to the reconstruction of Ukraine. A timely agreement on the governance and funding of the EU's long-term assistance to Ukraine is needed. A mixed strategy that includes borrowing capital on behalf of the EU on the markets and funnelling additional contributions by member states to the EU's budget might be a potential way forward. In addition, the EU should swiftly examine legal possibilities to channel sanctioned Russian assets towards Ukraine's recovery. Continue and expand military assistance to Ukraine. Substantive investments in Ukraine's reconstruction should not come at the expense of necessary military aid. One priority should be to strengthen Ukraine's ability to protect its skies against Russian missile attacks. Moreover, the EU should realise its plans for an EU military training mission, provided that it creates real added value to existing efforts and matches Ukrainian needs.
    Keywords: Ukraine,European Union,EU foreign policy,Russia's war in Ukraine,Ukraine's reconstruction,development assistance,humanitarian aid,macro-financial assistance,European Peace Facility
    Date: 2022

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