nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2022‒05‒02
six papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Offshore Wind Energy as an Emergent Ocean Infrastructure in India: Mapping of the Social and Environmental Impacts By Sarangi, Gopal
  2. Do carbon offsets offset carbon? By Calel, Raphael; Colmer, Jonathan; Dechezlepretre, Antoine; Glachant, Matthieu
  3. Does India Use Development Finance to Compete With China? A Subnational Analysis By Gerda Asmus; Vera Eichenauer; Andreas Fuchs; Bradley C. Parks
  4. Relative Price Changes of Ecosystem Services: Evidence from Germany By Jonas Heckenhahn; Moritz A. Drupp
  5. Efficient industrial policy for innovation: standing on the shoulders of hidden giants By Guillard, Charlotte; Martin, Ralf; Thomas, Catherine; Verhoeven, Dennis
  6. The 2021 PREDICT Dataset Methodology By BENAGES Eva; HERNÁNDEZ Laura; MÍNGUEZ Consuelo; PASCUAL Fernando; ROBLEDO Juan Carlos; ROSELL Inés; SALAMANCA Jimena; SOLAZ Marta; RIGHI Riccardo; SAMOILI Sofia; VAZQUEZ-PRADA BAILLET Miguel

  1. By: Sarangi, Gopal (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: Offshore wind energy holds promising potential as an alternative source of energy for a country like India, which continues to be land deprived and faces increasing difficulty in acquiring land for energy. While some scholarly efforts have focused on India's context, there is a dearth of studies on the associated environmental and social challenges of such infrastructure deployment. We conduct a detailed assessment of the policy and institutional mechanisms governing the offshore wind energy in the country and identify the possible environmental and social impacts of such projects on the marine environment and livelihood of fishing communities in India. We use qualitative research approaches and various types of secondary information and data. The policy and institutional framework assessment reveals that, despite the creation of the required mechanism, significant gaps exist in the knowledge of such projects’ possible impacts through these policies and regulations. Impact mapping shows that offshore wind projects could adversely affect the marine ecosystem and marine biodiversity to varying degrees over their entire life. The impacts occurring during the construction and operation phases of the project cycle will be significant. Policy suggestions show that preparatory measures are necessary before the implementation of such projects.
    Keywords: offshore wind energy; environment; livelihood; India
    JEL: E20 O13 O18 Q42
    Date: 2022–03
  2. By: Calel, Raphael; Colmer, Jonathan; Dechezlepretre, Antoine; Glachant, Matthieu
    Abstract: We develop and implement a new method for identifying wasted subsidies, and use it to provide systematic evidence on the misallocation of carbon offsets in the Clean Development Mechanism - the world's largest carbon offset program. Using newly constructed data on the locations and characteristics of 1,350 wind farms in India - a context where it was believed, ex-ante, that the Clean Development Mechanism could significantly increase development above baseline projections - we estimate that at least 52% of approved carbon offsets were allocated to projects that would very likely have been built anyway. In addition to wasting scarce resources, we estimate that the sale of these offsets to regulated polluters has substantially increased global carbon dioxide emissions.
    Keywords: carbon offset; infra-marginal support; misallocation; investment; subsidies; wind power
    JEL: H23 H43 L94 Q42 Q54
    Date: 2021–10–29
  3. By: Gerda Asmus (Heidelberg University - Alfred Weber Institute for Economics); Vera Eichenauer (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Andreas Fuchs (University of Goettingen, Department of Economics and Centre for Modern East Asian Studies); Bradley C. Parks (AidData, Global Research Institute, William and Mary, Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: China and India increasingly provide aid and credit to developing countries. This paper explores whether India uses these financial instruments to compete for geopolitical and commercial influence with China (and vice versa). To do so, we build a new geocoded dataset of Indian government-financed projects in the Global South between 2007 and 2014 and combine it with data on Chinese government-financed projects. Our regression results for 2,333 provinces within 123 countries demonstrate that India’s Exim Bank is significantly more likely to locate a project in a given jurisdiction if China provided government financing there in the previous year. Since this effect is more pronounced in countries where India is more popular relative to China and where both lenders have a similar export structure, we interpret this as evidence of India competing with China. By contrast, we do not find evidence that China uses official aid or credit to compete with India through co-located projects.
    Keywords: development finance, foreign aid, official development assistance, official credits, South-South Cooperation, China, India, geostrategic competition, geospatial analysis
    JEL: F34 F35 F59 H77 H81 O19 O22 P33 R58
    Date: 2022–01
  4. By: Jonas Heckenhahn; Moritz A. Drupp
    Abstract: Discounting future costs and benefits is a crucial yet contentious practice in the appraisal of long-term public projects with environmental consequences. The standard approach typically neglects that ecosystem services are not easily substitutable with manufactured goods and often exhibit considerably lower growth rates. Theory has shown that we should either apply differentiated discount rates, such as a lower environmental discount rate, or account for increases in relative scarcity by uplifting environmental values. Some governments already integrate this into their guidance, but empirical evidence is scarce. We provide first comprehensive country-specific evidence, taking Germany as a case study. We estimate growth rates of 15 ecosystem services and the degree of limited substitutability based on a meta-analysis of 36 willingness to pay studies in Germany. We find that the relative price of ecosystem services has increased by more than four percent per year in recent decades. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that relative price changes are most substantial for regulating ecosystem services. Our findings underscore the importance of considering relative price adjustments in governmental project appraisal and environmental-economic accounting.
    Keywords: willingness to pay, discounting, relative prices, ecosystem services, substitutability, growth, cost-benefit analysis
    JEL: D61 H43 Q51 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Guillard, Charlotte; Martin, Ralf; Thomas, Catherine; Verhoeven, Dennis
    Abstract: Research and development is underprovided whenever it creates knowledge spillovers that drive a wedge between its total and private economic returns. Heterogeneity in the intensity of this market failure across technological areas provides an argument to vertically target public support for R&D. This paper examines potential welfare gains of such vertical industrial policy for innovation. It develops measures of private and spillover value of patented innovations using global data on patents and their citations. Our new method identifies a large number 'Hidden Giants' - i.e. innovations scoring higher on our new spillover measure than on the traditional forward citation count measure - which are shown to be particularly prevalent among patents applied for by universities. The estimated distributions of private values by technology area are then used to parameterize a structural model of innovation. The model permits estimation of the marginal returns to technology-area-specific subsidies that reduce innovators' R&D costs. Marginal returns are high when knowledge spillovers in the technology area are valuable, when private innovation costs are low, and when private values in a technology sector are densely distributed around the private cost. The results show large variation in the marginal returns to subsidy and suggest that targeted industrial policy would have helped mitigate underprovision of R&D over the time period studied. Variation in the extent to which knowledge spillovers are internalized within countries also makes a compelling case for supranational policy coordination, especially among smaller countries.
    Keywords: research and development; patented innovations; decoupling; targeted industrial policy
    JEL: R14 J01 J1
    Date: 2021–11–04
  6. By: BENAGES Eva; HERNÁNDEZ Laura; MÍNGUEZ Consuelo; PASCUAL Fernando; ROBLEDO Juan Carlos; ROSELL Inés; SALAMANCA Jimena; SOLAZ Marta; RIGHI Riccardo (European Commission - JRC); SAMOILI Sofia (European Commission - JRC); VAZQUEZ-PRADA BAILLET Miguel (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This methodological report details the work done in the Prospective Insights on R&D in ICT (PREDICT) project in 2021. PREDICT provides updated indicators for the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sector and for its Research and Development (R&D) in the European Union and in the major ICT leaders worldwide. This project is being carried out jointly by the Joint Research Centre, Directorate B and the Directorate General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (DG CNECT) of the European Commission. The data and methodologies have been developed in collaboration with the Valencian Institute of Economic Research (Ivie). The PREDICT Dataset has been deepened and expanded along the years in order to include complementary dimensions, such as the Media and Content sector. Since 2017, an updated methodology for estimating Government budget allocations for ICT R&D (ICT GBARD) is applied. Furthermore, for the most important indicators, PREDICT time series have been reconstructed back to 1995, while the main indicators are nowcasted for 2019 and 2020, thus providing comparable time series from 1995 to 2020. In this edition, an additional section addresses the methodological issues arising with nowcasting in times of the COVID crisis.
    Keywords: methodology, R&D, ICT, innovation, statistics, digital economy, ICT industry analysis, ICT R&D and innovation
    Date: 2022–03

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