nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2022‒03‒14
six papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview By Bent Flyvbjerg
  2. Supporting organizational adaptation through successful strategic and operational project portfolio management By Kaufmann, Carsten
  3. Gender dynamics in value chains By Pyburn, Rhiannon; Stoian, Dietmar; Quintero, Sandra
  4. BikewaySim and Complete Paths Networks are Expected to Improve Modeling of Bicycle Activity and Route Choice By Passmore, Reid; Watkins, Kari E.; Guensler, Randall
  5. Evolution of a principal’s Managerial Practices By Carine Catelin; Rajaa Roybier
  6. Pavement ME Evaluation of the NCHRP 1-61 Thin Concrete Overlay on Asphalt Sections By Mateos, Angel; Harvey, John

  1. By: Bent Flyvbjerg
    Abstract: Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias, as is common. Cognitive bias is half the story; political bias the other half. Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment. Each bias is defined, and its impacts on project management are explained, with examples. Third, base rate neglect is identified as a primary reason that projects underperform. This is supported by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exist in project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Finally, recent findings of power law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in conventional theory.
    Date: 2022–01
  2. By: Kaufmann, Carsten
    Abstract: A major challenge for organizations’ strategic management is to cope with uncertainty and constantly adapt to a turbulent environment. In organizations, project portfolios constitute the responsible entities to operationalize the adaptation by developing new opportunities and ensuring the implementation of an adapted organizational strategy. Thus, in this dissertation, I investigate how project portfolio and project management can strategically and operationally cope with uncertainty, increase portfolio and project success, and thereby support an organization’s successful adaptation. In regards to the strategic decision-making of portfolio management, I empirically reveal that decision-makers can effectively cope with projects’ and environment’s uncertainty through real options reasoning and thereby increase portfolio innovativeness and success. Furthermore, I show that portfolios consisting of agile projects benefit the valuable recognition of emergent strategies. In addition, I highlight the important role of entrepreneurial orientation and innovation climate as antecedents and moderators of portfolio management decisions. In regards to the operational implementation of a portfolio’s strategy, I investigate how portfolio and project managers can cope with projects’ uncertainty in their operational decisions. I show that project management effort causally increases projects’ profitability and that the marginal impact of project management effort increases for higher project complexity. Furthermore, I show that project managers’ reporting behavior is significantly associated with projects’ future performance. This dissertation contributes new insights on portfolio and project management in general and portfolio management’s strategic and operational decision-making under uncertainty in particular. Furthermore, it adds new aspects to the interaction between portfolio and project management and thereby opens up new perspectives on behavioral and contextual decision-making in portfolio and project management.
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Pyburn, Rhiannon; Stoian, Dietmar; Quintero, Sandra
    Abstract: Over the past 20 years, value chain development (VCD) initiatives and value chain research have increasingly integrated gender dimensions to allow for gender-differentiated employment and income opportunities and other benefits for women and men, and to address the exploitation of women’s labor (Pyburn and Kruijssen 2021). This research often addresses constraints to women’s participation in specific value chains, such as administrative procedures in transboundary fish trade (Ratner et al. 2018) or disproportionate harassment of women food traders by authorities in Nigeria (Resnick et al. 2019). This brief draws on research conducted under the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) to illustrate how VCD supports and constrains progress toward gender equality and women’s empowerment. In particular, the brief summarizes work from a portfolio of six PIM co-funded projects (2020–2021) on gender dynamics in value chains beyond the production node and single commodity analysis (Box 1), a book chapter in a CGIAR-wide gender publication (Pyburn and van Eerdewijk 2021), the Pro-WEAI (project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index) for Market Inclusion, and other gender-integrated value chain work within PIM (Crimi 2018; Vos and Pyburn 2021), and provides an outlook for future research.
    Keywords: WORLD; gender; value chains; women's participation; smallholders; women's empowerment; gender responsive approaches; women
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Passmore, Reid; Watkins, Kari E.; Guensler, Randall
    Abstract: Many cities are focused on increasing bicycle use through development of infrastructure such as bicycle lanes and multi-use paths. Traditionally, travel demand models (TDMs) are used to evaluate the demand for (and impact of) proposed transportation projects. However, the vast majority of TDMs cannot be used to evaluate the impact of bicycle projects. Improved TDMs are needed to help estimate the impacts of new bicycle projects on cycling activity and prioritize the construction of the most beneficial bicycle projects with limited transportation department resources. To more accurately model bicycle travel, preference-based route assignments are needed. Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology created a semi-automated process for developing an all-streets network to be used in TDM applications. The researchers combined detailed roadway characteristic information from three different transportation networks in GIS shapefile format and used BikewaySim, Georgia Tech’s newly developed shortest-path calculator for cycling trips, to compare shortest-path routing on the newly created all-streets network versus the simplified TDM network for a 12-square-mile study area in Atlanta. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Bikeways, Routes and routing, Shortest path algorithms, Travel time
    Date: 2022–02–01
  5. By: Carine Catelin (CREGO - Centre de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations [Dijon] (EA 7317) - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Rajaa Roybier (CREGO - Centre de Recherche en Gestion des Organisations [Dijon] (EA 7317) - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE])
    Abstract: Collaborative workshops, collective intelligence, etc. represent new working ways for future organizations. Teaching is not spared. Thus, learning organization and managerial innovations develop in the educational sector. So how managerial practices should evolve in this context ? We have chosen to use an exploratory study with semi-directive interviews with management teams, administrative staff and teachers in order to understand how can such a project implement and succeed, and what are the innovative managerial practices in public middle school ?
    Abstract: Travail collaboratif, ateliers participatifs, intelligence collective, etc. représentent de nouveaux modes de travail pour les organisations de demain. L'enseignement n'est pas épargné par cette réflexion. C'est ainsi que les notions d'organisation apprenante et d'innovations managériales tendent à intervenir et à se développer dans le secteur éducatif. Ainsi dans ce contexte, comment les pratiques managériales d'un chef d'établissement doivent-elles évoluer ? Cette étude se voulant exploratoire, nous avons choisi de réaliser des entretiens semi-directifs auprès d'équipes de direction, administratives et pédagogiques afin d'appréhender et de comprendre comment un tel projet, qu'est le collège apprenant, peut se mettre en place et réussir, et quelles pratiques managériales innovantes, au sein de l'enseignement secondaire public, cela implique-t-il ?
    Keywords: Public middle school,Managerial innovation,Project management,Learning organization,Collège apprenant,Enseignement secondaire,Innovation managériale,Management par projet,Organisation apprenante
    Date: 2021–06–24
  6. By: Mateos, Angel; Harvey, John
    Abstract: The thin concrete overlay on asphalt (COA) longitudinal cracking model of Pavement ME was calibrated with empirical data from COA sections with half-lane width slabs in Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado. The NCHRP Project 1-61 has considerably expanded the range of climatic conditions for which reliable performance data are available by adding projects from Iowa, Kansas, and Philadelphia (in addition to Minnesota, Illinois, and Colorado). This technical memorandum assesses Pavement ME predictions based on the longitudinal cracking measured on 13 COA sections with half-lane width slabs evaluated as part of NCHRP Project 1-61. None of the 13 sections had more than 3% of slabs with longitudinal cracking, despite four of them being subjected to relatively high traffic volumes (annual average daily truck traffic over 500 vehicles on the design lane) and having been in service between 9 and 19 years. When design values were adopted for the different input variables, Pavement ME predicted less than 5% longitudinal cracking in 12 of the 13 sections, which agrees with measured cracking. The root mean square error (RMSE) of Pavement ME predictions was 2.4% for the set of 13 sections. The RMSE of the Pavement ME predictions improved to 1.2% when constructed slab thickness measured with ground penetration radar was used instead of the design thickness. However, Pavement ME predictions did not improve when measured values for concrete strength or load transfer efficiency were used rather than design values. The recommendation is that the nationally calibrated COA cracking model, implemented in Pavement ME version 2.5.5 (the current version as of the writing of this technical memorandum), be used for developing the California COA design catalog.
    Keywords: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, thin bonded concrete overlay of asphalt (BCOA), thin whitetopping, mechanistic-empirical pavement design, Pavement ME
    Date: 2022–02–01

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