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on Project, Program and Portfolio Management |
| By: | Stefan Creemers |
| Abstract: | We show that the serial SNPV and the LCFDP are equivalent. The serial SNPV is a special case of the SNPV that tries maximize the expected NPV of a project by sequencing activities that have stochastic durations and cash flows that are incurred at the start of an activity. The LCFDP, on the other hand, minimizes the expected cost of the sequential diagnosis of a set of tests that have known execution costs and failure probabilities. |
| Keywords: | Least cost fault detection problem, Sequential testing problem, Stochastic net present value maximization, Project scheduling |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:kbiper:596801&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Significant progress has been achieved since 2015 in strengthening public investment management, with the reforms showing first results. The Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development’s (MoFPED) recent focus was on two areas. The project appraisal stage has been strengthened to enhance project readiness, with a well-articulated four-stage appraisal process now in place and broadly enforced, controlled by the Development Committee (DC). A stock-take of ongoing projects has been completed, upgrading the information base, with a comprehensive database of investment projects now available. The authorities now have a reliable and stable estimate of the size of public investments of UGX 87 trillion (87 percent of GDP), including 94 new initiatives worth around 40 percent of GDP that were identified through the review process. The new information has already been used in the FY19/20 budget process, including cancelling and requesting reassessment of existing projects. This has elevated the quality of discussions on projects between MoFPED and Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs). |
| Date: | 2019–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/294&r=all |
| By: | Rene Belderbos; Victor Gilsing; Boris Lokshin; Martin Carree; Juan Fernández Sastre |
| Abstract: | We examine firms’ propensity to adapt their R&D collaboration portfolio by establishing new types of R&D collaboration with different kinds of partners (suppliers, customers, competitors and universities & public research institutions). We argue that existing R&D collaboration with one of the two value chain partners (suppliers or customers) is associated with the formation of new R&D collaboration with the other value chain partner to ensure temporal alignment in innovation within the value chain. In contrast, issues related to governance and unintended knowledge spillovers suggest that ‘horizontal’ R&D collaboration with competitors only spurs R&D collaboration with other partner types if such competitor R&D collaboration has been discontinued earlier (‘delayed temporal alignment’). We posit that persistent prior R&D collaboration with institutional partners is an antecedent to the establishment of new R&D collaboration with industrial partners, and that discontinuation of a particular type of R&D collaboration is likely to lead to a restart of such R&D collaborative effort. Strong prior innovative performance is expected to increase the probability that firms establish R&D collaborations with new partner types, except for R&D collaboration with competitors, since the most innovative firms may fear leakage of proprietary knowledge to rivals. We find broad support for these predictions in a large panel of Spanish innovating firms (2004-2011). Our findings highlight that it is not just the configuration of R&D collaborations with existing partner types that predicts tie formation with new partner types, but also the intertemporal pattern of prior R&D collaboration and managerial discretion provided by past innovation success. |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:msiper:596672&r=all |
| By: | Gunther Maier; Maximilian Schimanko |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the relationship between main actors in the development team of real estate projects. In particular we look at the relation between the developer and the architect. This relation, however, can be viewed as a model for other relations as well.The textbook literature on real estate development typically uses the term "development team" for the large number of actors involved in such a project. The development team is described as a team that works together in order to successfully finalize the project. It is our hypothesis that this view is misleading and hides the numerous and fundamental conflicts of interest between these actors. Our paper discusses this situation theoretically. We use the theory of economic agents in order to derive hypotheses about potential conflicts and about actors' strategies to protect themselves against risk and financial losses.In a second step we check these hypotheses via qualitative interviews. We interview architects and developers about their view of this relationahip and about their and their partner's actions. |
| Keywords: | conflict of interest; conflict resolution; development team; Real Estate Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_110&r=all |
| By: | Adrian Toschka |
| Abstract: | Purpose: High rents cause displacement and segregation in German cities, which is why self-used residential property in cities is politically promoted. However, the affordability of homeownership is also declining in cities, which is why, groups of private individuals form private joint building ventures to buy urban vacant land to develop and build multi-family houses for later owner -occupancy. Therefore, it was investigated if private joint construction projects really represent an alternative to buying property from a conventional developer for small and middle-income households.Design/methodology/approach: First, a cluster analysis is performed to identify disparities within the collected financing data of the members of joint building ventures. Second, the typical members of joint building ventures are characterized and compared with data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) using a regression analysis. The evaluation of the data also determines whether the construction costs of joint building projects are relatively low, and whether this makes self-used residential property affordable for households with low and middle income. Findings: The cluster analysis enabled typical groups of people involved in joint building ventures. In conjunction with the subsequent regression analysis, it has been revealed that members of joint construction projetcs are highly homogeneous in terms of formal literacy. However, the comparison with a reference group revealed that the decision for a collective construction project does not depend on the level of net household income. As the projects are partly carried out by non-professional groups, different stakeholders have developed various preconditions through increased professionalization in order to minimize the uncertainty of the construction projects. |
| Keywords: | Affordable Housing; Collective Building; Homeownership |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_305&r=all |
| By: | Bullock, David W.; Wilson, William W.; Neadeau, Joseph F. |
| Abstract: | Genetic editing (GE) offers an additional tool to traditional crop breeding and genetic modification (GM) for developing new traits in agricultural crops. Surveys of leading crop technology companies and a review of the literature indicate that GE may offer considerable economies of scale when compared to GM crop development. These economies are generally attributed to lower R&D costs, higher probability of R&D success (particularly in the initial discovery phase), and the fact that GE crops do not require an extra regulatory approval step (at least in most countries outside the EU) that adds considerable cost and uncertainty to the GM development process. This study examines the economics of GE versus GM crop development from the perspective of the minimum required market size (in terms of potential crop area) of a potential crop in order for the technology firm to expect to break even in terms of the real option value (ROV) of the project. The valuation model is unique in that it combines a decision tree with a binomial lattice in the valuation of an abandonment real option on the new crop technology. The decision tree is used to model the R&D process (which is non-market driven) while the binomial lattice is used to value the market-driven commercialization of the candidate crop variety. A survey of industry experts provided a range of values with regards to the time and cost of each R&D phase for both GE and GM crop development, so stochastic simulation was incorporated into the ROV model. A primary result from the empirical model is that across a wide range of trait values, the required cropping area for breaking even on a GE crop variety was consistently 96.3% less than the area required for a GM crop with the identical trait value and commercialization profile. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the GM (and GE to a lesser extent) required area was highly sensitive to the probability of success in the discovery phase. Somewhat surprising, the results for GM and GE were not sensitive to the abandonment option parameters – an indication that this type of real option adds little value to projects primarily due to the low volatility of returns during the commercialization phase. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2019–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:293186&r=all |
| By: | Jaehwan Kim; Gongcheol Jeong; JunSik Choi |
| Abstract: | The present study applied the analytical framework for the relationship between land development projects and land value and their effect on land value, which was discussed in previous studies, to an urban regeneration project, and analyzed their relationship with land value. The scope and subject of this study’s analysis included land value change for two years in Changwon before, during, and after the first generation urban regeneration project. The results showed that while the average cumulative rate of change for 4 dongs within the 1 km affected area was 15.3%, that of 6 dongs within the 5 km affected area it was 25.8%, which was quite high. Hence, as part of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport’s regulatory efforts to curb a steep land value rise in the areas adjacent to urban regeneration projects, it is necessary to approach the steep rise by closely examining a land value change trend in 5 km from the project area, instead of simply regulating the immediately adjacent areas. |
| Keywords: | Affected Area; Land Value Change; Neighboring Area; Rate of Change; Urban Regeneration Project |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_294&r=all |