|
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management |
| By: | Sener Salci (Department of Economics, Queen’s University, Kingston ON, Canada); Glenn P. Jenkins (Queen's University, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is a tool for assessing the welfare effects of changes in regulatory and investment interventions. While in many ways an effective approach, a significant drawback of CBA, however, is that it relies on estimates for variables that cannot be predicted with complete accuracy. As such, expected outcomes generated by CBA, such as financial and economic net present values (NPVs), incorporate a degree of risk and uncertainty. It is therefore critical that CBA is based on transparent assumptions about the nature of risk and uncertainty affecting key variables: CBA cannot contribute to rational decision-making unless the distribution of outcomes is clear, and the effect on forecast reliability understood. Real-world risk and uncertainty generate numerous ex-ante outcomes at the point of appraisal. Correctly assessing risk and uncertainty is therefore one of the most difficult challenges decision-makers face in applying the results of CBA. This report offers a systematic approach to the incorporation of risk and uncertainty in CBA. The primary objectives are to review the professional literature on risk and uncertainty; to provide a methodology for taking account of risk and uncertainty in CBA; and to suggest guidelines for the interpretation and application of CBA results in the decision-making process. The treatment of risk and uncertainty are clearly addressed in the CBA guidelines of most OECD countries, although approaches vary. The simplest procedures are based on sensitivity analysis, as applied to a deterministic base case. More comprehensive analysis is based on assumed probability distributions for the variables concerned. The CBA guidelines of multilateral financial institutions and a number of advanced economies (Australia, Canada, France, the UK, the US and the European Union) call for sensitivity analysis on a project-by-project basis, identifying specific long-term risks and uncertainties associated with the assumptions and values used in appraisal and evaluation. Still greater insight into the impact of risk and uncertainty on expected regulatory outcomes can be gained from a probabilistic modeling of variable distributions and their inter-dependencies. A Monte Carlo simulation is therefore recommended alongside sensitivity analysis, where data, time and budget permit. |
| Keywords: | risk analysis, cost-benefit analysis, energy, nonrenewable resources, environment, Canada |
| JEL: | D61 D81 N52 N72 O13 Q42 Q51 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:291&r=ppm |
| By: | Loretta MALVAROSA (NISEA, Fishery and Aquaculture Research Organisation, Italy); Arina MOTOVA (Seafish Industry Authority, UK); Ralf DOERING (Thünen-Institut für Ostseefischerei, Hamburg, Germany); Arantza MURILLAS (AZTI Tecnalia, Bilbao, Spain); Leyre GOTHI (Thünen-Institut für Ostseefischerei, Hamburg, Germany); Claire MACHER (IFREMER, UMR AMURE, Brest, France.); Sigrid LEUTHA (IFREMER, Nantes, France.); Rasmus Nielsen (DTU Aqua, University of Denmark, Denmark); Gunnar HARALDSON (IoES, University of Iceland, Reykjavik); Paolo ACCADIA (NISEA, Fishery and Aquaculture Research Organisation, Italy) |
| Abstract: | The main aim of the SOCIOEC project was to assess new management options of the CFP and improve methodology of the Impact Assessment (IA). The project covered several major research areas, affecting decision making process in fisheries: definition of fisheries management objectives, possible incentives and behavior of the sector under different management options, government structure and stakeholder’s involvement, IA of different management options. The analysis covered almost all major EU fishing regions and fisheries, which allowed to take into account the main features of different management options implemented EU-wide. The aim of the paper is to provide a synthetic overview of the major results of the main results of the project and special attention will be given to the improvement of the IA methodology, which following sustainability impact assessment concept in fishery includes not only integrated analysis of three sustainability dimensions, but also “soft†form of analysis and stakeholders involvement as a crucial part of the process. The rating methodology developed under the SOCIOEC provides possibility to assess the results of different policy options in terms of acceptability, effectiveness, coherence and efficiency.. |
| Keywords: | : Impact assessment, Fishery Management, Qualitative Analysis |
| JEL: | Q22 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irf:wpaper:016&r=ppm |
| By: | Florence Crick; Katie Jenkins; Swenja Surminski |
| Abstract: | Multisectoral partnerships are increasingly being mentioned as a mechanism to deliver and improve disaster risk management. Yet, partnerships are not a panacea and more research is required to understand the role that they can play in disaster risk management and particularly in disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we investigate how partnerships can incentivise flood risk reduction by focusing on the UK public-private partnership on flood insurance. Developing the right flood insurance arrangements to incentivise flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change is a key challenge. While expectations of the insurance industry have traditionally been high when it comes to flood risk management, the insurance industry alone will not provide the solution to the management of rising flood risks due to climate change and socio-economic development. In addition, faced with these risks insurance partnerships can no longer afford to focus only on the risk transfer function. The case of flood insurance in the UK illustrates these challenges: even national government and industry together cannot fully address these risks and other actors need to be involved to create strong incentives for risk reduction. Our paper investigates this for the specific issue of surface water flood risk in London. Using an agent-based model we investigate how other agents could strengthen the insurance partnership by maintaining affordable insurance premiums and reducing flood risk and test this for the new Flood Re scheme. Our findings are relevant for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation not just in the UK but also internationally. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp241&r=ppm |
| By: | Silvia Appelt; Fernando Galindo-Rueda |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the findings of a recent OECD project on the measurement of the link between public procurement and innovation that is intended to contribute to the review and implementation of the OECD measurement frameworks for R&D and innovation. The report highlights what concepts, definitions and measurement approaches can be used, with currently available data or suitably adapted sources, to produce policy-relevant indicators on the use of innovation procurement and carry out empirical analyses on the impact of public procurement on R&D, innovation and broader economic outcomes. Exploiting recent R&D and innovation survey data and administrative procurement records, it provides novel multi-country evidence on the incidence of public procurement of innovation. An exploratory analysis based on procurement, company account, R&D, patent and trademark data helps showcase the use of combined micro-data sources for analytical applications and points out important links between firm-level procurement activity, R&D and economic performance. |
| Keywords: | R&D, statistics, measurement, innovation, public procurement |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaaa:2016/3-en&r=ppm |
| By: | Ruth Towse (CIPPM, Bournemouth University and CREATe (University of Glasgow)); Hyojung Sun (CIPPM, Bournemouth University and University of Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this Working Paper is to pass on our experience of research on song titles and product cycles in UK music publishing which was intended to provide evidence of the impact of copyright in a market. The Working Paper relates to the article ‘Economics of Music Publishing: Copyright and the Market’, published in the Journal of Cultural Economics, 2016. The context of the research was a project on copyright and business models in music publishing that was part of the AHRC funded project: the ‘Economic Survival in a Long Established Creative Industry: Strategies, Business Models and Copyright in Music Publishing’. By collecting data on the product cycles of a sample of long-lasting song titles and trying to establish changes in the product cycle as the copyright regime changed we had hoped to produce empirical evidence on the effect changes in the copyright regime, such as term extension, or to those in copyright management organisations. For a variety of reasons, this proved impossible to do (at least in the UK) and the Working Paper explains what we think were the reasons. It may also serve as a possible warning to others attempting the same thing. The paper also suggests that previous research that did not consider the ambiguities of ‘a song title’ may be flawed. |
| Keywords: | Song titles, product cycles, copyright |
| JEL: | Z11 Z18 L88 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cue:wpaper:awp-06-2016&r=ppm |
| By: | Marco Kools; Louise Stoll |
| Abstract: | What are the characteristics of a school as learning organisation? This paper should be seen as an attempt to work towards a common understanding of the school as learning organisation concept that is both solidly founded in the literature and is recognisable to all parties involved, i.e. educators, policy makers, parents and others alike. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of the learning organisation literature in general, and within a school context. It identifies and operationalises the characteristics of the school as learning organisation in an integrated model that consists of seven overarching ‘action-oriented’ dimensions: 1) developing and sharing a vision centred on the learning of all students; 2) creating and supporting continuous learning opportunities for all staff; 3) promoting team learning and collaboration among staff; 4) establishing a culture of inquiry, innovation and exploration; 5) establishing embedded systems for collecting and exchanging knowledge and learning; 6) learning with and from the external environment and larger learning system; and 7) modelling and growing learning leadership. The dimensions and underlying key characteristics are intended to provide practical guidance on how schools can transform themselves into a learning organisation and ultimately enhance student outcomes. Quelles sont les caractéristiques d’une école comme structure d’apprentissage? Ce document devrait être considéré comme une tentative d’obtenir une compréhension commune du concept de l’école comme structure d’apprentissage, qui est à la fois solidement ancré dans la littérature et reconnaissable par toutes les parties prenantes, c’est-à-dire éducateurs, décideurs politiques, parents et autres parties prenantes. Le document fournit une analyse détaillée de la littérature sur la structure d’apprentissage en général, et au sein d’un contexte scolaire. Il identifie et opérationnalise les caractéristiques de l’école comme structure d’apprentissage en un model intégré qui consiste en sept dimensions globales axées sur les actions: 1) développer et partager une vision centrée sur l’apprentissage de tous les étudiants; 2) créer et encourager des opportunités de formation en continu pour tout membre du personnel; 3) promouvoir l’apprentissage en équipe et la collaboration entre les membres du personnel ; 4) établir une culture de recherche, d’innovation et d’investigation; 5) établir un système intégré de collecte et d’échange de connaissances et d’enseignements; 6) apprendre avec et depuis l’environnement externe et un système éducatif plus large; 7) façonner et développer le leadership dans l’enseignement. Les dimensions et caractéristiques fondamentales sous-jacentes ont pour but de fournir une aide pratique sur la façon dont les écoles peuvent s’auto-transformer en une structure d’apprentissage et ainsi améliorer les résultats des étudiants. |
| Date: | 2016–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:137-en&r=ppm |