nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2015‒08‒25
nine papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Modeling Uncertainty when Estimating IT Projects Costs By Michel Winter; Isabelle Mirbel; Pierre Crescenzo
  2. Modalities of coordination inside innovative collaborative projects: between face-to-face interactions and interactions at a distance By Bastien Bernela; Rachel Levy
  3. Innovation in Brazilian landfills: A ServPPIN perspective By Silvia Cruz; Sônia Paulino; Faïz Gallouj
  4. Strengthening Partnerships: Accountability Mechanism Annual Report 2014 By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  5. Carbon Emissions and Cost Benefit Analyses By Svante MANDELL
  6. Do People Disinvest Optimally? By John D Hey; Konstantina Mari
  7. Efficient Hinterland Transport Infrastructure and Services for Large Container Ports By Michele ACCIARO; Alan MCKINNON
  8. Optimal Return in a Model of Bank Small-business Financing By Oana Peia; Radu Vranceanu
  9. The futures of the service economy in Europe: a foresight analysis By FaÏz Gallouj; Matthias Weber; Metka Stare; Luis Rubalcaba

  1. By: Michel Winter (Département Informatique [Université Nice Sophia Antipolis] - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis); Isabelle Mirbel (WIMMICS - Web-Instrumented Man-Machine Interactions, Communities and Semantics - I3S - Laboratoire d'Informatique, Signaux, et Systèmes de Sophia Antipolis - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - CNRS - CRISAM - Inria Sophia Antipolis - Méditerranée - INRIA); Pierre Crescenzo (Laboratoire d'Informatique, Signaux, et Systèmes de Sophia-Antipolis (I3S) / Equipe MODALIS - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - CNRS)
    Abstract: In the current economic context, optimizing projects' cost is an obligation for a company to remain competitive in its market. Introducing statistical uncertainty in cost estimation is a good way to tackle the risk of going too far while minimizing the project budget: it allows the company to determine the best possible trade-off between estimated cost and acceptable risk. In this paper, we present new statistical estimators derived from the way IT companies estimate the projects' costs. In the current practice, the software to develop is progressively divided into smaller pieces until it becomes easy to estimate the associated development workload and the workloads of the usual additionnal activities (documentation, test, project management,...) are deduced from the development workload by applying ratios. Finally, the total cost is derived from the resulting workload by applying a daily rate. This way, the overall workload cannot be calculated nor estimated analytically. We thus propose to use Monte-Carlo simulations on PERT and dependency graphs to obtain the cost distribution of the project.
    Date: 2014–03–09
  2. By: Bastien Bernela (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers); Rachel Levy (LEREPS - Laboratoire d'Etude et de Recherche sur l'Economie, les Politiques et les Systèmes Sociaux - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Toulouse - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - UTM - Université Toulouse 2 Le Mirail - École Nationale de Formation Agronomique - ENFA)
    Abstract: This research aims to characterize interactions between partners within collaborative projects for innovation. We use data from an online survey sent to all the partners involved in projects labelled by a French competitiveness cluster. The partners have assessed the frequency of face-to-face interactions and interactions at a distance with each other partner of the same project. From the 754 inter-organizational ties, we observe heterogeneity of interactions in terms of existence and frequency. Although the role of the project coordinator and partners' acquaintanceship stimulates interactions, we show that geographical proximity has a positive impact only on face-to-face interactions. Finally, a cross-analysis of the two forms of interactions highlights the existence of both complementarity and substitutability cases, but this latter is possible only if a minimum of face-to-face interactions occurs.
    Abstract: Cette recherche vise à caractériser les interactions entre partenaires dans le cadre de projets collaboratifs pour l'innovation. Les données mobilisées proviennent d'une enquête en ligne adressée à l'ensemble des partenaires impliqués dans des projets labellisés par un pôle de compétitivité français. Les acteurs ont évalué la fréquence de leurs interactions en face-à-face et à distance avec chacun des autres partenaires impliqués dans le même projet. A partir des 754 liens inter-organisationnels étudiés, on observe une hétérogénéité des interactions en termes d'existence et de fréquence. Si le rôle des coordinateurs des projets et de la connaissance antérieure des partenaires stimule les interactions, nous montrons que la proximité géographique n'a un impact positif que sur les interactions en face-à-face. Enfin, l'analyse croisée des deux types d'interactions met en évidence l'existence à la fois de configurations de complémentarité et de substituabilité, cette dernière n'étant possible que s'il existe un minimum d'interactions en face-à-face.
    Date: 2014–11–20
  3. By: Silvia Cruz (State University of Campinas Campinas); Sônia Paulino (University of Sao Paolo); Faïz Gallouj (CLERSE - Centre lillois d'études et de recherches sociologiques et économiques - CNRS - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies)
    Abstract: This paper is devoted to the discussion of public services innovation in the Brazilian municipal solid waste sector, with emphasis on multi-agent participation within Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) projects. The empirical context is based on six landfill CDM projects located in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area, Brazil. CDM projects have a dual purpose: reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and promoting local sustainable development in host countries – through the promotion of local co-benefits. The discussion is based on the analytical model provided by the ServPPIN concept (public-private innovation networks in services). It focuses on the characterization of the landfills selected and on the identification of the stakeholders involved within these landfills, pointing out the participation gaps. The results indicate that the participation of associations and cooperatives surrounding landfills is still marginal. Pulling this theoretical (ServPPIN) and empirical research (landfill CDM project) together, one can identify the main factors affecting the establishment of basic conditions for service innovation: a) interactions and the building of social relations aimed at innovation among various stakeholders; b) the development of competences on several fronts; especially relational and organizational; c) the role of the public sector (coordination role) in supporting the development of successful public-private innovation networks in services.
    Date: 2014–09–11
  4. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Office of the Compliance Review Panel, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Office of the Compliance Review Panel, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This year’s Annual Report of the Accountability Mechanism (AM) has the theme “Strengthening Partnerships” with good reason: Cooperation is the heart and soul of the mechanism. Without close collaboration among the AM, governments, a?ected people, nongovernment organizations, and civil society organizations, the AM cannot work. Collaboration between the AM and Asian Development Bank (ADB) sta?ff is essential. We are constantly learning from stakeholders in ADB projects and from project staff?, and we also learn from our interactions in the field during outreach missions. In this publication, the Office?ce of the Special Project Facilitator, the Offi?ce of the Compliance Review Panel, and the Compliance Review Panel itself present their activities in 2014 and some of the challenges for 2015.
    Keywords: accountability mechanism, OSPF, OCRP, compliance, annual report 2014, consultation, compliance review, problem-solving, SPF, CRP
    Date: 2015–04
  5. By: Svante MANDELL
    Abstract: New infrastructure projects may affect CO2 emissions and, thus, cost benefit analyses for these projects require a value to apply for CO2. This may be based on the marginal social cost of emissions or on the carbon price resulting from present and future policies. This paper argues that both approaches are necessary, but for cost benefit analysis of infrastructure projects the latter should be the primary tool. A series of complications arise when applying this principle in practice. These are discussed in the paper. Even if the complications make the implementation of the approach difficult, we argue that it is still preferable to a social cost approach.
    Keywords: climate change, policy, carbon value, cost-benefit analysis
    JEL: H54 Q51 R42
    Date: 2013–12–11
  6. By: John D Hey; Konstantina Mari
    Abstract: The disinvestment decision is of importance in many contexts: if funds are tied up for too long in a poorly-performing project, then opportunities for re-investment may be missed. Optimal disinvestment theory is a component of real options theory, but is relatively ignored by experimentalists. Two recent papers conclude that decision-makers stay in projects longer than that prescribed by the optimal behaviour of a risk-neutral agent. This departure is explained through riskaversion, but without a formal hypothesis under test. We report here on an experiment which explains the behaviour of the subjects through an estimationof risk-aversion. We also explore an alternative hypothesis – that subjects are myopic. Our results show that few subjects appear to be risk-neutral, many seem to be risk-averse but few are myopic.
    Keywords: disinvestment, experiments, myopia, real options, risk-aversion, rolling horizon
    JEL: C9 G02
    Date: 2015–08
  7. By: Michele ACCIARO; Alan MCKINNON
    Abstract: The growth in container volumes and the concentration of container flows on a limited number of hubs, which derives, among other things, from the increasing vessel size, requires the development of new terminal infrastructure at ports able to handle the latest generation of vessels. In addition to the pressure that such vessels impose on the terminal cargo handling capabilities, it is often forgotten, that those larger vessels will also require higher capacity in hinterland transportation or a rationalization and better use of existing transport alternatives. Those ports that are already plagued by inland congestion or that are located in the proximity of densely populated areas, will have to come up with viable alternatives to reduce the impact of congestion and relieve local communities from the negative externalities generated by increasing cargo flows. The development of new terminal infrastructure should then take into account the effects that increasing traffic volumes will have on the existing infrastructure and plan for expansion if necessary. As volumes increase, alternative modes of transport, such as rail or short-sea shipping are being promoted both to reduce both congestion and environmental impacts. In the specific case of Chile and the new development associated with the Puerto de Gran Escala project, it is imperative to carefully plan the development of the hinterland infrastructure. This is not only necessary to ensure that the investment yields adequate economic benefit; it must also maximise the social and environmental sustainability of the project. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in hinterland transport management, focusing on the challenges that the development of new container terminal infrastructure is likely to bring to the local communities. Recommendation and a set of good practice case studies of good practice are also provided.
    Keywords: emissions, hinterland transportation, port gate, port hinterland, rail access to terminals
    Date: 2013–11–13
  8. By: Oana Peia (ESSEC Business School - Essec Business School, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS); Radu Vranceanu (ESSEC Business School and THEMA (UMR 8184) - THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS - Economics Department - Essec Business School)
    Abstract: This paper develops a simple model showing how banks can increase the access to finance of small, risky firms by mitigating coordination problems among investors. If investors observe a biased signal about the true implementation cost of real sector projects, the model can be solved for a switching equilibrium in the classical global games approach. We show that the socially optimal interest rate that maximizes the probability of success of the firm is higher than the risk-free rate. Yet if banks maximize investors' expected return, they would choose an interest higher than the socially optimal one. This gives rise to a form of credit rationing, which stems from the funding constraints of the banks.
    Abstract: Nous étudions le financement des PME par les banques dans un modèle de type "global games". Il apparait que le taux d'intérêt d'équilibre dans une économie décentralisée avec secteur bancaire concurrentiel est supérieur au taux d'intérêt qui assure le plus grand taux de réussite des projets.
    Date: 2014–02–27
  9. By: FaÏz Gallouj (Clersé - CLERSE - Centre lillois d'études et de recherches sociologiques et économiques - CNRS - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies); Matthias Weber (AIT Austrian Institute of Technology - AIT Austrian Institute of Technology); Metka Stare (University of Ljubljana (SLOVENIA) - University of Ljubljana (SLOVENIA)); Luis Rubalcaba (University of Alcala - University of Alcala)
    Abstract: The paper presents a signalling exercise with a view to trace emerging dynamics in the development of the services economy in Europe. These dynamics have a direct influence and will trigger off service innovation. Firstly, the drivers of the service economy are presented, many of them fostering service innovation as a way to face new societal and business challenges. Secondly, emerging developments are discussed to identify the most promising service innovation dynamics. Finally, foresight scenarios demonstrate possible future trends of the new service economy. These scenarios are based on a methodology developed and applied in the context of an EC-funded project on Sectoral Innovation Systems. This exercise is performed for the overall set of services activities although a particular focus is given on activities such as knowledge intensive business services and distributive trade services. Results indicate that emerging developments are those related to the reconciliation between industrialisation and customisation associated with ICT, ageing population, sustainable development and service regression and extension dynamics. The cases of knowledge intensive services and distributive trades have shown how different drivers and emerging developments are interrelated and establish different scenarios for future development.
    Date: 2015

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