nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2015‒02‒05
seven papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Management of bureaucrats and public service delivery: evidence from the Nigerian civil service By Imran Rasul; Daniel Rogger
  2. Estimating State-Dependent Volatility of Investment Projects: A Simulation Approach By Pedro Godinho
  3. Form or function?: the effect of new sports stadia on property prices in London By Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Georgios Kavetsos
  4. Report on case studies of the technology-based services for independent living for older people By Stephanie Carretero; Csaba Kucsera
  5. Response policies and strategies for intensification processes of land degradation and desertification in the Republic of Moldova By Leah, Tamara
  6. What Methods May Be Used in Impact Evaluations of Humanitarian Assistance? By Puri, Jyotsna; Aladysheva, Anastasia; Iversen, Vegard; Ghorpade, Yashodhan; Brück, Tilman
  7. Title: Strategic Intelligence Monitor on Personal Health Systems Phase 3 (SIMPHS 3) – NEXES (Spain) Case Study Report By Francisco Lupiañez-Villanueva; Alexandra Theben

  1. By: Imran Rasul; Daniel Rogger
    Abstract: We study how the management practices that bureaucrats operate under, correlate to the quantity and quality of public services delivered. We do so in a developing country context, exploiting data from the Nigerian Civil Service linking public sector organizations to the projects they are responsible for. For each of 4700 projects, we have hand coded independent engineering assessments of each project’s completion rate and delivered quality. We supple- ment this information with a survey to elicit management practices for bureaucrats in the 63 civil service organizations responsible for these projects, following the approach of Bloom and Van Reenen[2007]. Management practices matter: a one standard deviation increase in autonomy for bureaucrats corresponds to significantly higher project completion rates of 18%; a one standard deviation increase in practices related to incentives and monitoring corresponds to significantly lower project completion rates of 14%. We provide evidence that the negative impacts of practices related to incentive provision/monitoring arise because bureaucrats multi-task and incentives are poorly targeted, and because these management practices capture elements of subjective performance evaluation that further leave scope for dysfunctional responses from bureaucrats. The backdrop to these results, where 38% of projects are never started, implies there are potentially large gains to marginally changing management practices for bureaucrats.
    Keywords: autonomy; bureaucracy; multi-tasking; performance evaluation
    JEL: J1 J50
    Date: 2013–10
  2. By: Pedro Godinho (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)
    Abstract: Project volatility is an essential parameter for real options analysis, and it may also be useful for risk analysis. Many volatility estimation procedures only consider the volatility in the first year of the project. Others consider that different years may have different values of the project volatility. In this paper I show that volatility may change not only with time but also with the state of the project. I consider two possible definitions for the project volatility, the log-variance and the variance of the project value, and I propose three procedures for estimating state-dependent volatility: two-level simulation, one and a half level simulation and a regression procedure. Computational experiments show that the one and a half level simulation procedure and the regression procedure lead to the most accurate estimations of project volatility.
    Keywords: Finance; Simulation; Project volatility; Real options; Investment analysis.
    JEL: C15 G31
    Date: 2015–01
  3. By: Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Georgios Kavetsos
    Abstract: Professional sports facilities are among the most expensive development projects. Assessing the external effects related to these and the channels through which these effects operate is a challenging task. We propose a strategy to value the external effects stadia deliver to their neighbourhoods based on the variation of property prices. Our strategy allows for unobserved spatial heterogeneity, anticipation effects, and disentangles the stadium’s function as a sports facility from its form as a physical structure that (visually) dominates the neighbourhood. We apply this strategy to two of the largest stadium projects of the recent decade, the New Wembley and the Emirates Stadium in London. Our results suggest there are positive stadium effects on property prices, which are large compared to construction costs. Notable anticipation effects are found immediately following the announcement of the stadium plans. We further argue that stadium architecture plays a role in promoting positive spillovers to the neighbourhood.
    Keywords: neighbourhood amenities; property prices; sport; stadium impact
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2014–01–07
  4. By: Stephanie Carretero (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Csaba Kucsera (European Commission – JRC - IPTS)
    Abstract: This report elaborates five case studies of good practices of technology-enabled services for independent living of older adults at home from the 14 obtained in the deliverable 1 of the ICT-AGE project. The aim is to obtain policy lessons studying a group of variables related with the creation and implementation of these services by public long-term care systems, such as business case and models, training actions, scaling and market creation, evaluation process and organisation change, among others. A case study is provided per each good practice on the basis of the variables analysed.
    Keywords: long-term care, social investment, social return, information and communication technologies, active and healthy ageing, quality of care, productivity, carers, financial sustainability, care, savings, ageing in place, social innovation
    JEL: I00 I18
    Date: 2014–12
  5. By: Leah, Tamara
    Abstract: Soil, the main means of production in agriculture of Moldova suffered a progressive deterioration in the last 20-30 years due to a intensive operations without adequate investment to preserve and improve its natural properties. Intensive exploitation led to changes in chemical composition(dehumification, alkalinization,salinization) andstructure (compaction) and degradation through erosion, pollution, landslides etc. It was estimated a loss of agricultural potential of the soil to 40% due to these direct negative effects of soil degradation. Policy analysis and response strategies showed that the state support of agriculture is very limited. There is no single source of information, containing reports on the amounts (internal and external) have been allocated, the distribution thereof and the name of the projects implemented or under implementation. Evaluation and monitoring of donor funded projects is made in several stages. In this process not involved beneficiaries and the results are made public only in some cases, depending on the scope of the project. To overcome the problems caused by land degradation is required structural agricultural policy, to ensure better use of land.
    Keywords: agriculture, degradation, policies, soil, strategies
    JEL: Q00 Q24 Q28
    Date: 2014–11–20
  6. By: Puri, Jyotsna (International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie)); Aladysheva, Anastasia (SIPRI); Iversen, Vegard (University of Manchester); Ghorpade, Yashodhan (Institute of Development Studies); Brück, Tilman (ISDC - International Security and Development Center)
    Abstract: Despite the widespread occurrence of humanitarian emergencies such as epidemics, earthquakes, droughts, floods and violent conflict and despite the significant financial resources devoted to humanitarian assistance, systematic learning from such interventions using rigorous theory-based impact evaluations is very rare. The objective of this paper is to examine the extent to which scientific impact evaluation methods can provide evidence to improve the effectiveness and efficiency in humanitarian action. This paper explores the methodological options and challenges associated with generating high quality evidence needed to answer key questions about the performance of humanitarian assistance, including whether assistance is reaching the right people, at the right time, is bringing about the desired changes in their lives (effectiveness) and is being delivered in the right doses, ways and with manageable costs (efficiency). With the help of six case studies and drawing on real-life examples from the small but growing academic literature, we demonstrate how impact evaluation methods can be used successfully and in an ethical manner to improve humanitarian assistance. A key lesson from our review is that it pays to be prepared. Much information is being collected these days about the risks of various emergencies unfolding, be they sudden onset or slow onset emergencies. Hence national actors and international donors can prepare for these events and for conducting meaningful impact evaluations. Given the overwhelming needs and the lack of funds, doing more with limited resources is a key challenge for humanitarian assistance and impact evaluation is one way of achieving this.
    Keywords: impact evaluation, methodology, research design, statistics, humanitarian emergency, humanitarian assistance, disaster, violent conflict, reconstruction, aid, development
    JEL: H84 C93 O12 Q54
    Date: 2015–01
  7. By: Francisco Lupiañez-Villanueva (Open Evidence, Barcelona, Spain); Alexandra Theben (Open Evidence, Barcelona, Spain Author-Workplace-Homepage 1:
    Abstract: The NEXES case, based on a project co-funded by the ICT Policy Support Programme Area (CIP-ICT-PSP-2007.2.2 – ICT for ageing well), aims to deploy “integrated care services for chronic patients based on structured interventions addressing not only prevention, but also healthcare and social support”. NEXES is currently in the transitional phase from existing pilot experiences to extended deployment of health/social services for elderly populations. It can supplement existing institutional approaches or offer an alternative to them. The services are grouped in four programmes that represent a broad spectrum of health problems, from those affecting citizens at risk or in the early stages of a disease to those that affect patients with advanced chronic disorders. The programmes comprise the following: (1) Wellness advice and rehabilitation for in clinically stable chronic patients to promote healthy life-styles, enhancing their self- management and improving adherence to prescribed treatments; (2) Enhanced care for frail patients, which aims to assess prevention for frail patients at high risk of hospitalisation; (3) Home hospitalisation (HH) and early discharge, which aims to explore the potential for generalisation of HH and the analysis of the interplay with other Integrated Care Services (ICS) for chronic patients; and (4) Remote support to primary care for diagnosis and therapy (Support), transferring specialised diagnostic and therapeutic interventions to primary care.
    Keywords: SIMPHS, eHealth, Remote Monitoring, ageing, integrated care, independent living, case studies, facilitators, governance, impact, drivers, barriers, integration, organisation
    JEL: I11 I18 O33 O38
    Date: 2014–12

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