nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2015‒01‒31
six papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Measuring Design and its Role in Innovation By Fernando Galindo-Rueda ; Valentine Millot
  2. Cost estimate classification and accuracy for Major Industrial Plant Projects (MIPP) versus building construction in Germany By Erbe, Anita
  3. Appraisal of increased public transport capacity: the case of a new metro line to Nacka, Sweden By Cats, Oded ; West , Jens ; Eliasson, Jonas
  4. Of the stability of partnerships when individuals have outside options, or why allowing exit is inefficient By Alexia Gaudeul ; Paolo Crosetto ; Gerhard Riener
  5. Central Mekong Delta Region Connectivity Project: Rapid Climate Change Threat and Vulnerability Assessment By Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; ; ;
  6. Effectiveness of the bean seed dissemination models implemented under the Bean Technology Dissemination (BTD) Project: Results of key informant interviews in Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua By Reyes, Byron ; DeYoung, David ; Maredia, Mywish

  1. By: Fernando Galindo-Rueda ; Valentine Millot
    Abstract: This working paper sums up the main findings of an OECD project aiming to provide an evidence basis for focusing efforts to improve the measurement of technological and non-technological forms of business innovation, with particular focus on the role of design. It reviews a broad range of novel design-related measures, indicating their advantages and limitations in terms of policy relevance and insights. The analysis of design provides a valuable test-case for assessing the robustness of the overall framework for measuring innovation as proposed in the OECD/Eurostat Oslo Manual. It identifies a number of areas for potential development in a future revision, focused on the role of users and the implementation of the definition of innovation and innovation activities. It also identifies a range of design concepts based on an informal consultation with the design expert community. <P> The paper also illustrates a number of findings arising from the first-time use of a set of experimental and optional questions on design implementing a “ladder-type” model of design which describes levels of sophistication and integration of the design function within the firm. Cognitive testing and analysis of the microdata from a large and representative sample of Danish firms shows a high degree of respondent acceptance of the experimental questions and supports their predictive validity vis-à-vis a number of hypotheses on the use of design and a series of innovation and economic outcomes potentially associated to it.
    Keywords: innovation, surveys, technology, design, measurement
    Date: 2015–01–19
  2. By: Erbe, Anita
    Abstract: Ongoing pressure on prices for construction projects adds to the significance of cost estimation accuracy in building construction. Due to competition from Asian entrants, main contractors in the plant engineering industry are starting to face a similar situation. In the present paper, the cost estimation standards for Major Industrial Plant Projects (MIPP) are analyzed and compared with the cost estimation standards for Building Construction (BC). The research method uses a literature and standards review, comparing MIPP cost estimation guidelines by the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering (AACE) with a guideline known as the 'cone of cost' following the Official Scale of Fees for Services by Architects and Engineers (German: HOAI) for comparable phases of performance. It is shown that MIPP industry cost estimation guidelines are much more tolerant in terms of accuracy than for Building Construction in Germany, especially in the early phases. With the help of examples (Hot-Briquetted-Iron plant projects versus residential housing projects), a set of possible reasons is identified and categorized by (1) competition intensity incl. technology impact and frequency of project occurrence, (2) demands on cost estimation professionals, (3) materials and supplies used, (4) duration of project execution, (5) Certainty of projected Cash Flows. Finally, the study marks starting points for further research: First, comparing MIPP cost estimation guidelines to non-German Building Construction standards, and second empirically validating and possibly extending the set of explanations.
    Abstract: Durch den zunehmenden Kostendruck im Hochbau gewinnt die Kalkulationsgenauigkeit in der Planungsphase an Bedeutung. Auch heimische Großanlagenbauer stehen seit einigen Jahren aufgrund zunehmender Konkurrenz aus Asien unter erhöhtem Preisdruck. Das vorliegende Arbeitspapier untersucht die im internationalen Großanlagenbau verwendeten Richtlinien zur Klassifikation und Genauigkeit von Kalkulationen in bestimmten Leistungsphasen nach AACE und vergleicht diese mit den Vorgaben des 'Kostentrichters' in Anlehnung an die HOAI für den Hochbau. Der Vergleich zeigt, dass für äquivalente Leistungsphasen die Großanlagenbau-Richtlinien zur Genauigkeit deutlich toleranter sind als die Vorgaben für den Hochbau, insbesondere für die Frühphasen der Planung. Anhand von Beispielen (Eisenerzheißbrikettieranlagen- versus Wohnbau-Projekte) werden mögliche Gründe hierfür aufgezeigt und kategorisiert: (1) Wettbewerbsintensität inklusive Technologiebezug und Projekthäufigkeit, (2) Anforderungen an die Kalkulatoren, (3) verwendete Baumaterialien, (4) Dauer der Projektausführung, (5) Sicherheit der prognostizierten Cashflows. Schließlich weist die Studie auf Ausgangspunkte für die weitere Forschung hin: Ein Vergleich von Kalkulationsrichtlinien im Großanlagenbau mit Hochbau-Standards außerhalb Deutschlands sowie eine empirische Validierung und Erweiterung der Untersuchung der möglichen Gründe.
    Keywords: major industrial plant projects,building construction,cost estimation,Großanlagenbau,Hochbau,Kalkulation
    JEL: F21 G31 L74 L60 L70 Y80
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Cats, Oded (Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands ); West , Jens (KTH ); Eliasson, Jonas (KTH )
    Abstract: One of the most common motivations for public transport investments is increased capacity. However, appraisal methodologies for projects meant to increase capacity are relatively less well developed compared to methodologies for projects aiming to reduce travel times. Each of the consequences of capacity limitations - crowding, risk for denied boarding and unreliable waiting and travel times - can increase the generalized travel costs. The appraisal of capacity improvements requires supply and demand models able to capture the processes that lead to uneven distributions of vehicles and passengers and monetary valuations of e.g. crowding, delays and unexpected waiting times. This paper integrates these building blocks into a comprehensive framework for appraisal. A case study of a metro extension that partially replaces an overloaded bus network in Stockholm demonstrated that congestion effects may account for a substantial share of the expected benefits. A cost-benefit analysis based on a conventional static model will miss more than half of the benefits. This suggests that failure to represent dynamic congestion effects may substantially underestimate the benefits of projects primarily designed to increase capacity rather than reduce travel times.
    Keywords: Public transport; Capacity; Appraisal; Dynamic assignment; Cost-benefit analysis
    JEL: R40
    Date: 2015–01–13
  4. By: Alexia Gaudeul (DFG RTG 1411, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena ); Paolo Crosetto (UMR GAEL INRA, Université Pierre Mendès France, Grenoble ); Gerhard Riener (DICE, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf )
    Abstract: Should people be allowed to leave joint projects freely or should they be deterred from breaking off? This depends on why people stop collaborating and whether they have good reasons to do so. We explore the factors that lead to the breakdown of partnerships by studying a public good game with imperfect public monitoring and an exit option. In our experiment, subjects were assigned a partner with whom they could contribute over several periods to a public good with stochastic outcomes. They could choose in each period between participating in the public project or working on their own. We find there was excessive exit especially because subjects over-estimated the likelihood their partner would leave. Treatments with high barriers to exit generated higher welfare overall as they fostered stability and prevented inefficient breakdowns in relationships. There were differences across treatments in the intensity with which different factors drove the choice to work alone. Differences in expected payoffs between independent and group work were more important as a driver of exit in treatments with low barriers to exit. The intensity of other factors was more constant across treatments, including whether the common project failed in the previous period, the belief that one's partner did not want to maintain the partnership and the belief that he exerted less effort than oneself.
    Keywords: barriers to exit, cooperation, outside option, imperfect public monitoring, partnerships, public good game, repeated game, social risk
    JEL: C23 C92 H41
    Date: 2015–01–15
  5. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB) ; (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB ); ;
    Abstract: The Central Mekong Delta Region Connectivity Project aims to enhance connectivity across provinces of southern Viet Nam and Ho Chi Minh City. It includes two major bridges, a 15-kilometer road connecting the two bridges, and approach roads. Given the high exposure of the Mekong Delta to severe flooding, a climate risk and vulnerability assessment was conducted to assess the vulnerability of the project to climate change. The assessment report provides a better understanding of climate change threats to the project infrastructure. It also provides project stakeholders with information necessary for consensus building for the adoption of a robust approach to responding to climate change. The study illustrates that a constrained time frame and limited resources may not be significant impediments to the undertaking of climate risk vulnerability assessments, which can provide valuable information at the project design stage to increase the climate resilience of large investment projects.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, central mekong delta, climate change adaptation mekong area, climate change mekong region, mekong river floodplain, mekong basin flooding, climate change vulnerability mekong area, adb connectivity project
    Date: 2014–06
  6. By: Reyes, Byron ; DeYoung, David ; Maredia, Mywish
    Keywords: Seed system, evaluation, common beans, Phaseolus vulgaris, agricultural research, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, improved varieties, Bean Technology Dissemination Project, key informant interviews, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, O3, O130, Q16, Q55, Q18, Q12,
    Date: 2014–12

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