nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2014‒11‒22
eight papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Tartu Ülikool

  1. Time-to-plan lags for commercial construction projects By Stephen D. Oliner; Daniel E. Sichel; Jonathan N. Millar
  2. Sustainable Electricity Grid Development and the Public: An Economic Approach By Wenche Tobiasson; ToorajJamasb
  3. Estimating fluctuations in oil and gas investment By Dahl, Roy A; Osmundsen, Petter
  4. Fondi strutturali: un’analisi della concentrazione degli interventi su base regionale By Ferrarese, Cataldo; Nannariello, Guido
  5. Economic incentives for carbon sequestration: A review of the literature By Aklilu, Abenezer; Gren, Ing-Marie
  6. The Risks and Tricks in Public-Private Partnerships By Elisabetta Iossa; Giancarlo Spagnolo; Mercedes Vellez
  7. Can conditional cash transfers improve education and nutrition outcomes for poor children in Bangladesh ? evidence from a pilot project By Ferre, Celine; Sharif, Iffath
  8. The Swedish car fleet model By Beser Hugosson, Muriel; Algers, Staffan; Habibi, Shiva; Sundbergh, Pia

  1. By: Stephen D. Oliner (American Enterprise Institute); Daniel E. Sichel (American Enterprise Institute); Jonathan N. Millar (American Enterprise Institute)
    Abstract: We use a large project-level dataset to estimate the length of the planning period for commercial construction projects in the United States. We find that these time-to-plan lags are long, averaging about 17 months when we aggregate the projects without regard to size and more than 28 months when we weight the projects by their construction cost.
    Keywords: AEI Economic Policy Working Paper Series
    JEL: A
    Date: 2012–12
  2. By: Wenche Tobiasson; ToorajJamasb
    Abstract: Increasingly, local opposition to new electricity grid development projects cause lengthy delays and places financial and practical strain on the projects. The structure of the electricity industry is in transition due to the emergence of smaller but more numerous electricity generation facilities. Also, the general public and local communities are increasingly active and engage with energy and environmental issues. Thus, the traditional decision making frameworks and processes are proving less effective in solving the present time conflicts between local communities and other stakeholders. This paper proposes an economic approach to resolve such conflicts. This paper discusses how compensation, benefit sharing, and property rights can play a role in reducing community opposition to new grid developments. We argue that these methods need to be part of an overarching societal strategy and policy towards environmental effects of grid development. We then propose that such impacts can be addressed within the framework of 'weak' versus 'strong' sustainability. Finally, we suggest that the concepts of 'collective negotiation' and 'menu of options' in regulatory economics can be adapted to operationalize this sustainability-based approach to community engagement with new grid projects
    Keywords: Electricity transmission; Social sustainability; public and local opposition; compensation and benefit sharing.
    JEL: L43 L94 D23 D70
    Date: 2014–10–03
  3. By: Dahl, Roy A (UiS); Osmundsen, Petter (UiS)
    Abstract: Governments in extraction countries are anxious to estimate expected investment in development projects, since they represent an essential element of the macro economy. The overall level of activity is also crucial to oil companies, since the macro picture affects cost levels, the supplies market and recruitment opportunities. The paper outlines factors that explain fluctuations in investment in petroleum projects on the Norwegian continental shelf.
    Keywords: oil industry; cost overruns; megaprojects; business cycles
    JEL: E32 F21 L71 M21
    Date: 2014–10–09
  4. By: Ferrarese, Cataldo; Nannariello, Guido
    Abstract: This study proposes a comparative analysis at regional level, of concentration level of expenditure co-financed by the Structural Funds in the programming period 2007/13. For main types of expenditure, we evaluate by the concentration index of Herfindahl-Hirschman the level of concentration of projects. It is verified also the relationship between it and some background variables. The analysis shows that the average funding of the projects financed is greater in the South than in the Centre-North. In the case of concentration level of the contributions to the firms, the analysis shows that interventions are correlated directly with the number of firms in the area, this is an interesting result only apparently counterintuitive.
    Keywords: expenditure concentration, Structural Funds, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, South Italy, Regional Policy, Public expenditure
    JEL: C80 H11 H72
    Date: 2014–10–07
  5. By: Aklilu, Abenezer (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Gren, Ing-Marie (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)
    Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to review studies in economics on policies for carbon sequestration. Specific design problems are associated with heterogeneous land holders, additionality and permanence in carbon projects, and the risk of leakage. It was found that a large part of the literature, which started in the late 1980s, has been focused on the calculation of costs for carbon sequestration, mainly in forests, and on calculations of cost savings from its introduction in climate programs. Results from the literature point to cost savings of up to 40%. The small body of literature on transaction costs, mainly attributed to monitoring and verification, indicates that these costs are modest. The literature on policy design is much more scant, and the main part suggests discounting of the carbon sink value to account for the uncertainty. Assessment of equilibrium prices in the many existing voluntary and regulatory carbon sink markets shows a lower price of carbon sink compared with certain abatement of fossil fuels. This can be explained by risk discounting. A few studies suggest contract design for self-enforcement of efficient carbon projects. This has not yet been implemented in carbon sink offsets in practice, the carbon trade of which corresponds to approximately 0.3% of all carbon trade.
    Keywords: economic incentives; carbon sequestration; policy design; survey
    JEL: Q52 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2014–11–03
  6. By: Elisabetta Iossa; Giancarlo Spagnolo; Mercedes Vellez
    Abstract: PPPs have been implemented broadly around the world in the infrastructure sector -water and sanitation, transports, energy, and telecommunications- and, more recently, in the provision of public services -education, health, prisons, and water and waste management. Key aspects of the contract design, such as risk allocation and payment mechanisms, significantly affect the PPP outcomes because they affect the incentives of the public and private parties to deliver a public service that satisfies user needs. Nevertheless, contractual provisions used in practice often do not implement the efficient risk allocation. In this paper, we discuss the crucial role of the public sector in designing and imposing standardized contracts, monitoring their compliance, disclosing contractual information to the general public, and transferring risks to the private sector in order to reduce the likelihood of PPP performance failure.
    Keywords: Concession contracts, Incentives, Public Private Partnerships, Risk Allocation
    JEL: D02 D20 D82 L33 L38
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Ferre, Celine; Sharif, Iffath
    Abstract: There is an increasing recognition that investment in human development at an earlier age can have a significant impact on the lifetime earnings capacity of an individual. This notion is the basis for the popularity of conditional cash transfer programs to help boost child health and education outcomes. The evidence on the impact of conditional cash transfers on health and education outcomes, however, is mixed. This paper uses panel data from a pilot project and evaluates the impact of conditional cash transfers on consumption, education, and nutrition outcomes among poor rural families in Bangladesh. Given implementation challenges the intervention was not able to improve school attendance. However the analysis shows that the pilot had a significant impact on the incidence of wasting among children who were 10-22 months old when the program started, reducing the share of children with weight-for-height below two standard deviations from the World Health Organization benchmark by 40 percent. The pilot was also able to improve nutrition knowledge: there was a significant increase in the proportion of beneficiary mothers who knew about the importance of exclusively breastfeeding infants until the age of six months. The results also suggest a significant positive impact on food consumption, especially consumption of food with high protein content.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Housing&Human Habitats,Rural Poverty Reduction,Primary Education
    Date: 2014–10–01
  8. By: Beser Hugosson, Muriel (KTH/TLA); Algers, Staffan (KTH/TLA); Habibi, Shiva (KTH/TLA); Sundbergh, Pia (Transport Analysis (Sweden))
    Abstract: The composition of the car fleet with respect to age, fuel consumption and fuel types plays an important role on environmental effects, oil dependency and energy consumption. In Sweden, a number of different policies have been implemented to support CO2 emission reductions. In order to evaluate effects of different policies, a model for the evolution of the Swedish car fleet was developed in 2006. The model has been used in a number of projects since then, and it is now possible to compare forecasts with actual outcomes. Such evidence is relatively rare, and we think it may be useful to share our experience in this respect. We give a brief overview of the Swedish car fleet model. Then we describe policies that have been implemented in recent years and the evolution of the Swedish car fleet. We then focus on two projects which enable comparison with actual outcomes, and analyse the differences between forecasts and outcomes. We find that the model has weaknesses in catching car buyers’ preferences of new technology. When this is not challenged too much, the model can forecast reasonably well on an aggregate level. We also find that he model is quite sensitive to assumptions on future supply. This is not so much related to the model, but to its use. Depending on the use of the forecasts – be it car sales, emissions or fuel demand – it may be necessary to use different supply scenarios to get an idea of the robustness of the forecast result.
    Keywords: Clean car policy; Car fleet model; Forecasting; Model evaluation; Scrapping model; Nested logit
    JEL: R40
    Date: 2014–09–29

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