nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2013‒08‒23
four papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Parnu College - Tartu University

  1. The effects of country risk and conflict on infrastructure PPPs By Araya, Gonzalo; Schwartz, Jordan; Andres, Luis
  2. An assessment of IFPRI’S work in Ethiopia 1995–2010: Ideology, influence, and idiosyncrasy By Renkow, Mitch; Slade, Roger
  3. Investment Behavior of Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: An Experimental Analysis By Ihli, Hanna Julia; Mußhoff, Oliver
  4. Is small better ? a comparison of the effect of large and small dams on cropland productivity in South Africa By Blanc, Elodie; Strobl, Eric

  1. By: Araya, Gonzalo; Schwartz, Jordan; Andres, Luis
    Abstract: Through an empirical analysis of the relationship between private participation in infrastructure and country risk, the paper shows that country risk ratings are a reliable predictor of infrastructure investment levels in developing countries. The results suggest that a difference of one standard deviation in a country's sovereign risk score is associated with a 27 percent increase in the probability of having a private participation in infrastructure commitment, and a 41 percent higher level of investment in dollar terms. The predictive ability of country risk ratings exists for all sectors of infrastructure and for both greenfield and concessions. On average, energy investments exhibit a higher sensitivity to country risk than transport, telecommunications, and water investments. Concessions are more sensitive than greenfield investments to country risk, although country risk is a good predictor of investment levels for both contractual forms. Although foreign direct investment is found to be sensitive to country risk, the causal relationship is not nearly as sensitive as it is with private participation in infrastructure. Finally, an analysis of private participation in infrastructure patterns for those countries emerging from conflict reveals that conflict-affected countries typically require six to seven years to attract significant levels or forms of private investments in infrastructure from the day that the conflict is officially resolved. Private investments in sectors where assets are more difficult to secure--such as water, power distribution, or roads--are slower to appear or simply never materialize.
    Keywords: Non Bank Financial Institutions,Debt Markets,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Emerging Markets,Investment and Investment Climate
    Date: 2013–08–01
  2. By: Renkow, Mitch; Slade, Roger
    Abstract: This study provides an independent external assessment of the impact of IFPRI’s work in Ethiopia during 1995–2010. From 1995 to 2004, nearly all of IFPRI’s Ethiopia work was undertaken by Washington-based research teams working on specific themes under various “global research programsâ€. In each case, Ethiopia represented one of several case studies in a larger multicountry study. The international public goods generated in this way included peer-reviewed publications; collaborative research with both domestic and international researchers; and the building of national capacity for policy research. IFPRI entered into a different kind of relationship with Ethiopia in 2004 with the establishment of the Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP). The ESSP was set up to provide direct support to the Government of Ethiopia in the design and implementation of its national agricultural development strategy and to provide well-researched advice on other agricultural and rural development policy matters.
    Keywords: Ethiopia; East Africa; Africa south of Sahara; Africa; Impact assessment; Agricultural development; Development strategies; Agricultural policies; Agricultural research; Poverty; food security; Markets; Public investment; Sustainable land management
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Ihli, Hanna Julia; Mußhoff, Oliver
    Abstract: In this study, we experimentally analyze the investment behavior of smallholder farmers in Uganda. We consider a problem of optimal stopping, stylizing an option to invest in a project. We ascertain whether, and to what extent, the real options approach and the classical investment theory can predict farmers’ investment behaviors. We also examine differences in the investment behavior with respect to the presence of a price floor, which is often used to stimulate investments. Furthermore, we look at learning effects. Our results show that both theories do not exactly explain the observed investment behavior. However, our results suggest that real options models better predict the decision behavior of farmers than the classical investment theory. The presence of a price floor and learning from personal experience during the experiment do not significantly affect the investment behavior. However, we find that specific socio-demographic and socio-economic characteristics affect the investment behavior of farmers.
    Keywords: experimental economics, investment, price floors, real options, Uganda, Farm Management, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Political Economy, Risk and Uncertainty, C91, D03, D81, D92,
    Date: 2013–07
  4. By: Blanc, Elodie; Strobl, Eric
    Abstract: This study estimates and compares the effects of small and large irrigation dams on cropland productivity in South Africa. To this end, a panel data set of South African river basins is constructed. The econometric analysis reveals that although large dams increase cropland productivity downstream, they have a negative effect on cropland within the vicinity. However, their existence can enhance the relatively small positive impact of local small dams. Although a cost-benefit analysis of irrigation benefits shows that small dams may be more viable than large ones, large dams can play a potentially important role within a system of both types of dams.
    Keywords: River Basin Management,Dams and Reservoirs,Hydro Power,Water and Energy,Water Supply and Systems
    Date: 2013–08–01

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