nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2012‒10‒06
eight papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Parnu College - Tartu University

  2. Methodologies to assess the impact of infrastructure projects in international development evaluation By Julie Pellegrin; Emanuela Sirtori
  3. Life-cycle Productivity of Industrial Inventors: Education and other determinants By ONISHI Koichiro; NAGAOKA Sadao
  4. PEER EFFECTS IN PROGRAM PARTICIPATION By Dahl, Gordon B.; Løken, Katrine V.; Mogstad, Magne
  5. Assessing the infrastructure impact of mega-events in emerging economies By Victor Matheson
  6. A primer on R&D cooperation among firms By Marco Marinucci
  7. The Role of Institutional Investors in Financing Clean Energy By Christopher Kaminker; Fiona Stewart
  8. Audits and logistic regression, deciding what really matters in service processes: a case study of a government funding agency for research grants By Samohyl, Robert

  1. By: Iban Lizarralde (ESTIA Recherche - Ecole Supérieure des Technologies Industrielles Avancées (ESTIA)); Véronique Pilnière (ESTIA Recherche - Ecole Supérieure des Technologies Industrielles Avancées (ESTIA), CREG - Centre de recherche et d'études en gestion - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)
    Abstract: Nous nous intéressons ici aux phases amont de la mise en place de projets complexes. Nous considérons comme " projets complexes ", des projets qui se proposent de spécifier, de mettre en œuvre et de pérenniser des changements organisationnels profonds dans les entreprises ou plus généralement, dans les activités sous contraintes économiques. Ces projets sont généralement liés à l'innovation sous ses diverses formes : innovation produit naturellement, mais aussi innovation process, innovation organisationnelle ou innovation sociale. Le manager ou le chef de projet en charge d'une telle transformation complexe va devoir réfléchir à la façon dont il va s'organiser, aux personnes concernées par le projet dont il prend la responsabilité. La question à laquelle nous allons nous intéresser dans cette contribution est la suivante : comment est-il possible de faire collaborer positivement des personnes et faire démarrer efficacement des projets communs dans la mesure où ces personnes défendent a priori des points de vue divergents sur la nature des problèmes posés, sur les solutions que l'on peut leur imaginer et sur des façons " réalistes " d'y parvenir.
    Keywords: complexité, changements organisationnels, innovation, socio-cognitique, projets
    Date: 2012–07–09
  2. By: Julie Pellegrin (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies); Emanuela Sirtori (CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies)
    Abstract: Ex-post evaluation of infrastructure projects is attempted by international and national organisations in different ways. Qualitative case studies, relying on documentary analysis, interviews and surveys, are regularly carried out, for example, by the European Commission, the World Bank, the European Investment Bank and Regional Development Banks. The aim of case studies is to provide an in-depth understanding of the project context and performance. The World Bank has also put in place a rating system to assess the performance of all investment operations financed, allowing for immediate comparability of results across sectors, countries, macro-regions, programmes and lending instruments. Some institutions and countries (e.g. the European Commission, the World Bank and the United Kingdom) make use of quantitative methods to measure infrastructure projects effects, like ex-post CBA. This method is mostly used to re-assess ex-ante appraisal results with more up-to-date data. An innovative way of integrating ex-post CBA and qualitative evidence is offered by the recent Commission’s evaluation of major projects financed in the 1994-1999 period. Such research project allowed to study in a structured way not only project effects, but also determinant mechanisms of success or failure, leading to meaningful and generalised lessons about infrastructure project performance. The evaluation design and specificities characterising this approach are described and the main advantages highlighted.
    Keywords: Ex post evaluation, cost-benefit analysis, case studies
    JEL: B40 C81 H43
    Date: 2012–03–09
  3. By: ONISHI Koichiro; NAGAOKA Sadao
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the life-cycle inventive productivity of Japanese industrial inventors, based on panel data of 1,731 inventors matched with firm data. We focus on two issues: whether inventors with PhD degrees perform better, even taking into account the late start in their business careers, and if those with PhD degrees based only on dissertation (PhDs (DO)), for which a university performs only a certification function, are similarly as productive as the regular PhD holders. Our main findings are the following. Inventors with regular PhD degrees have significantly higher annual productivity than those with other education levels in terms of both patent and forward citation counts, and they can easily compensate for the late start in their business careers. This is the case even after controlling for workplace, research stage, and inventor ability. PhDs (DO) also have high patent productivity (rising more rapidly with experience), although their level is lower than that of regular PhD holders. They work in independent laboratories and in projects involving basic research as frequently as do the regular PhD holders. Furthermore, the exits of PhDs (DO) from inventions are significantly late even when controlling for project type and inventor ability, so that they work longer as inventors.
    Date: 2012–09
  4. By: Dahl, Gordon B. (Department of Economics, UC San Diego); Løken, Katrine V. (Department of Economics, University of Bergen); Mogstad, Magne (Department of Economics, University College London)
    Abstract: The influence of peers could play an important role in the take up of social programs. However, estimating peer effects has proven challenging given the problems of reflection, correlated unobservables, and endogenous group membership. We overcome these identification issues in the context of paid paternity leave in Norway using a regression discontinuity design. In an attempt to promote gender equality, a reform made fathers of children born after April 1, 1993 in Norway eligible for one month of governmental paid paternity leave. Fathers of children born before this cutoff were not eligible. There is a sharp increase in fathers taking paternity leave immediately after the reform, with take up rising from 3% to 35%. While this quasi-random variation changed the cost of paternity leave for some fathers and not others, it did not directly affect the cost for the father’s coworkers or brothers. Therefore, any effect on the coworker or brother can be attributed to the influence of the peer father in their network. Our key findings on peer effects are four-fold. First, we find strong evidence for substantial peer effects of program participation in both workplace and family networks. Coworkers and brothers are 11 and 15 percentage points, respectively, more likely to take paternity leave if their peer father was induced to take up leave by the reform. Second, the most likely mechanism is information transmission about costs and benefits, including increased knowledge of how an employer will react. Third, there is essential heterogeneity in the size of the peer effect depending on the strength of ties between peers, highlighting the importance of duration, intensity, and frequency of social interactions. Fourth, the estimated peer effect gets amplified over time, with each subsequent birth exhibiting a snowball effect as the original peer father’s influence cascades through a firm. Our findings demonstrate that peer effects can lead to long-run equilibrium participation rates which are substantially higher than would otherwise be expected.
    Keywords: Program Participation; Social Interactions
    JEL: H53 I38 J13
    Date: 2012–09–11
  5. By: Victor Matheson (Department of Economics, College of the Holy Cross)
    Abstract: Developing countries that host mega-events such as the Olympic Games and World Cup invest enormous sums in stadiums and collateral infrastructure projects. The rapid investment in long-lasting physical stocks raises questions of equity and efficiency for national taxpayers and event attendees. This paper reviews several cases of historical and recent mega-events to assess the infrastructure costs, returns on infrastructure investments, and impacts of the events on urban development patterns. It will highlight cases where mega-event investments contributed to long-term economic growth.
    Keywords: sports, stadiums, development, impact analysis, Olympics, World Cup, tourism
    JEL: L83 O18 R53
    Date: 2012–09
  6. By: Marco Marinucci (Banca d'Italia)
    Abstract: This paper provides an introduction to the economic analysis of R&D cooperation among firms. Basing on some stylized facts, we survey the relevant theoretical literature in order to discuss the benefits and the costs that firms face when they cooperate in R&D. We then analyze the pros and the cons of R&D cooperation from a policy-making perspective. We find that R&D cooperation is usually considered welfare improving and can be promoted by several policies. Finally, we discuss paths of research not yet taken in the theoretical literature.
    Keywords: R&D Cooperation, R&D spillovers, Welfare, Innovation
    JEL: O30 L40 L24
    Date: 2012–09
  7. By: Christopher Kaminker; Fiona Stewart
    Abstract: Decarbonising the world?s energy system, moving towards a resource efficient economy and providing energy access for all will require doubling existing investment levels to around USD 2 trillion a year or 2% of GDP. Governments understand that large sums of capital will be required, and many are also realising the need for further recourse to private capital as public finances have become strained in many developed countries. Simultaneously, banking sector provision of long-term finance has become tighter due deleveraging and new financial regulations. With their USD 71 trillion in assets, institutional investors potentially have an important role to play. Given the current low interest rate environment and weak economic growth prospects in many OECD countries, institutional investors are increasingly looking for real asset classes which can deliver steady, preferably inflation-linked, income streams with low correlations to the returns of other investments. Clean energy projects may combine these sought-after characteristics.<P> Yet – outside the major pension funds and insurance companies – institutional investor allocations to clean energy projects remain limited, particularly when it comes to the types of direct investment which can help close the financing gap. Reasons for institutional investor hesitancy include a lack of information and expertise when it comes to the type of direct infrastructure investment required to finance clean energy projects, and a potentially unsupportive regulatory backdrop. These problems are compounded by a lack of suitable investment vehicles providing the risk/return profile that institutional investors need to manage the risks specific to clean energy projects. There are many species of risk, including regulatory risk stemming from a lack of clarity in terms of environmental and climate policy, and retroactive changes to support mechanisms. Progress is being made – with investor groups coming together to use their scale and build their expertise in clean energy investment. From the public and private sectors, actions are underway to scale up green bond offerings, create risk-mitigating public finance mechanisms and co-investment funding structures. These initiatives need to be encouraged, carefully monitored, and expanded where successful.
    Keywords: infrastructure, insurance companies, green growth, green bonds, pension funds
    JEL: G15 G18 G23 G28 J26
    Date: 2012–09–24
  8. By: Samohyl, Robert
    Abstract: Governmental agencies, the back office of private firms and nongovernmental organizations experience bureaucratic processes that are often repetitive and out-of-date. These imperfections cause resource misuse and support activities that diminish to the value of the process. An important element of these bureaucratic processes is checking whether certain projects approved by the office have actually been successful in their proposed objectives. Banks and credit card companies must evaluate whether creditors have fulfilled their supposed financial worthiness, tax authorities need to classify sectors of the economy and types of tax payers for probable defaults, and research grants approved by government funding agencies should verify the use of public funds by grant recipients. In this study, logistic regression is used to estimate the probability of conformity of research grants to the financial obligations of the researcher analyzing the correlation between certain characteristics of the grant and the grant´s final status as approved or not. The logistic equation uncovers those characteristics that are most important in judging status, and supports the analysis of results as false positives and false negatives. A ROC curve is constructed which reveals not only an optimal cutoff separating conformity from nonconformity, but also discloses weak links in the chain of activities that could be easily corrected and consequently public resources preserved.
    Keywords: Logistic regression; ROC curve; probability; audits; government; research grants
    JEL: C12 M42 C25
    Date: 2012–08

This nep-ppm issue is ©2012 by Arvi Kuura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.