nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2012‒06‒25
eight papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Parnu College - Tartu University

  1. Technologies for Education: Basic Guidelines for Project Evaluation By Eugenio Severin; Claudia Peirano; Denise Falck
  2. The impact of stochastic properties of traffic demand on real option value in road projects By Krüger, Niclas
  3. Insiders, Outsiders, and the Role of Local Enforcement in Forest Management: An Example from Tanzania By Robinson, Elizabeth J.Z.; Albers, Heidi J.; Lokina, Razack; Ngeleza, Guyslain
  4. Corruption and the Public Display of Wealth By Simona Fabrizi; Steffen Lippert
  5. Evaluation of predator-proof fenced biodiversity projects By Doelle, Sebastian
  6. Riskiness Choice and Endogenous Productivity Dispersion over the Business Cycle By Can Tian
  7. Return on Investment from Industrial Energy Efficiency: Evidence from Developing Countries By Ludovico Alcorta; Morgan Bazilian; Giuseppe De Simone; Ascha Pedersen
  8. How the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program Matters By Link, Albert N.; Scott, John T.

  1. By: Eugenio Severin; Claudia Peirano; Denise Falck
    Abstract: The use of technologies within educational settings has become a priority for governments of developing countries. Investment in Technologies for Education (TEd), which has the goal of improving the quality of education and making it relevant to 21st century realities, has grown steadily during the past decade. However, efforts involving the evaluation of such projects have been inadequate thus far. The evaluation of educational technology projects is critically important, since it allows us to learn from the experience of carrying out such programs while providing vital information on expected results. The present document is intended for those who design, implement, and make decisions with respect to TEd. Its purpose is to foster the development of increasingly rigorous monitoring and evaluation processes that in turn lead to richer experiences that are more focused, effective, and sustainable.
    Keywords: Education, educational technology, conceptual framework, education policy, indicators, reforms and initiatives, learning impact, educational resources, infrastructure
    JEL: I20
    Date: 2012–03
  2. By: Krüger, Niclas (VTI)
    Abstract: In this paper we examine the stochastic properties that long term aggregate traffic demand exhibits. Based on the results of the time series analysis, we examine how fractionally integrated processes affect real option valuation in road projects. We conclude that the long memory property we find in long term aggregate traffic demand using Swedish data, implying that a shock in demand has persistent positive effects on future demand, leads to higher option values in road projects compared to the values from a standard model using geometric Brownian motion.
    Keywords: Real option analysis; Fractional Brownian motion; Monte Carlo simulation
    JEL: H54 R42
    Date: 2012–06–20
  3. By: Robinson, Elizabeth J.Z.; Albers, Heidi J.; Lokina, Razack; Ngeleza, Guyslain
    Abstract: Typically both local villagers (“insiders”) and non-locals (“outsiders”) extract products from protected forests even though the activities are illegal. Our paper suggests that, depending on the relative ecological damage caused by each group, budget-constrained forest managers may be able to reduce total forest degradation by legalizing “insider” extraction in return for local villagers involvement in enforcement activities. We illustrate this through the development of a game-theoretic model that considers explicitly the interaction between the forest manager who can combine a limited enforcement budget with legalization of insider resource extraction and livelihood projects
    Keywords: participatory forest management, local enforcement, Tanzania, charcoal production, non-timber forest products, bee keeping
    Date: 2012–06–06
  4. By: Simona Fabrizi (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand); Steffen Lippert (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)
    Abstract: We build a principal-agent-client model of corruption, allowing for heterogeneity in the value of public projects relative to the cost of monitoring their execution and for uncertainty of corruptors regarding the value of a project conducted. We derive the conditions under which officials with low-value projects have an incentive to signal their projects' type, and thereby facilitate their corruption, by means of public displays of wealth. While such public displays reduce the probability with which bribes are offered to officials conducting high-value projects, they increase the probability with which these officials accept bribes sufficiently to offset any positive effect.
    Keywords: Corruption, Incentives, Signaling, Public Displays of Wealth
    JEL: D73 D82
    Date: 2012–06
  5. By: Doelle, Sebastian
    Abstract: There has been recent debate over the role of predator-proof fences in the management of New Zealand’s biodiversity. The debate has arisen due to concern that investments in fenced sanctuaries are less productive than are alternative ways to manage biodiversity. Predator-proof fences are costly and budget constraints limit the area of habitat that can be fenced. The area of habitat enclosed within fences, and number of individuals of species supported, determines project’s ability to contribute to biodiversity goals. Many fenced sanctuary projects require substantial, continuing volunteer input to monitor fences and other tasks. These projects often pursue a number of goals including species protection, habitat restoration, education and community engagement. In this paper we examine methods to evaluate fenced biodiversity projects. While Cost Benefit analysis can potentially be used to evaluate these projects, cost - effectiveness measures and multi criteria analyses provide useful ways to inform decision-makers.
    Keywords: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2012–02
  6. By: Can Tian (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: Cross-sectional productivity dispersion is countercyclical, at the plant level and at the firm level. I incorporate a firm’s project choice decision into a firm dynamics model with business cycle features to explain this empirical .finding both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, all projects available have the same expected flow return and differ from one another only in the riskiness level. The endogenous option of exiting the market and limited funding for new investment jointly play an important role in motivating firms’ risk-taking behavior. The model predicts that relatively small firms are more likely to take risk and that the cross-sectional productivity dispersion, measured as the variance/standard deviation of firm-level profitability, is larger in recessions.
    Keywords: Countercyclical Productivity Dispersion, Business Cycles, Firm Dynamics
    JEL: E32 L11 L25
    Date: 2012–06–09
  7. By: Ludovico Alcorta (United Nations Industrial Development Organization); Morgan Bazilian (United Nations Industrial Development Organization); Giuseppe De Simone (United Nations Industrial Development Organization); Ascha Pedersen (United Nations Industrial Development Organization)
    Abstract: Energy efficiency is a foundation of any good energy policy. The economic, security, and environmental benefits of energy efficiency have been recognized for decades. We explore energy efficiency policy insights derived from survey work in developing countries in 119 projects across nine manufacturing sub-sectors. The methodology utilises financial return calculations to highlight gaps and opportunities for meeting the potential of energy efficiency projects in the manufacturing sector. We find a generally very high level of internal rates of return at a project level - with payback periods ranging from 0.9 to 2.9 years; but note that these metrics do not always appropriately influence corporate decision-making for a number of well-understood reasons.
    Keywords: Energy Efficiency, Energy Investment, Energy And Development, Industrial Development
    JEL: O14 Q41 E22 C58
    Date: 2012–05
  8. By: Link, Albert N. (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics); Scott, John T. (Dartmough College)
    Abstract: This note describes several performance characteristics of the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. The numerical examples are based on our analysis of the 1,878 randomly selected projects conducted at firms that responded to the 2005 National Research Council survey. The data show that firms receiving SBIR funding are able to overcome the initial technology-based hurdles that small, entrepreneurial firms frequently face, thus facilitating a more permanent and possibly longer-term employment growth.
    Keywords: Small Business Innovation Research program; R&D; Employment growth
    JEL: L26 O31
    Date: 2012–06–07

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