nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2011‒07‒02
seven papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Parnu College - Tartu University

  1. The success of infrastructure projects in low-income countries and the role of selectivity By Limodio, Nicola
  2. Innovative capability and financing constraints for innovation more money, more innovation? By Hottenrott, Hanna; Peters, Bettina
  3. Studio di un indicatore per la valutazione del rischio delprogetto nella metodologia dell’analisi costi benefici - Proposed risk indicators in the cost-benefit analisys methodology By Mario Genco
  4. Rhetorics vs. Realities in Implementation of e-Government Master Plan in Nepal By Kiran Rupakhetee; Almas Heshmati
  5. Notes on Applying Real Options to Climate Change Adaptation Measures, with examples from Vietnam By Dobes, Leo
  6. Protecting the Booroolong Frog in the Namoi Catchment: A Cost-Benefit Analysis By Greyling, Tertius; Bennett, Jeff
  7. Cost-Benefit Analysis of the protection of Malleefowl in the Lachlan Catchment By Greyling, Tertius; Bennett, Jeff

  1. By: Limodio, Nicola
    Abstract: This research analyzes the success of the infrastructure projects financed by the World Bank, focusing on the causal link between the quality of project implementation and its outcome. The results show that the success of infrastructure projects depends fundamentally on the quality of implementation. Although bad implementation can harm structurally solid projects, good implementation cannot make structurally weak projects successful. This leads to the conclusion that governance and selection of well-designed projects are essential for success and, in order to improve project outcomes, multilateral development banks may need to align their incentives toward thisobjective and invest more in governance and capacity building.
    Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform,Debt Markets,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Emerging Markets,Housing&Human Habitats
    Date: 2011–06–01
  2. By: Hottenrott, Hanna; Peters, Bettina
    Abstract: This study presents a novel empirical approach to identify financing constraints for innovation based on the concept of an ideal test as suggested by Hall (2008). Firms were offered a hypothetical payment and were asked to choose between alternatives of use. If they selected additional innovation projects, they must have had some unexploited investment opportunities that were not profitable using more costly external finance. We attribute constraints for innovation not only to lacking financing, but also to firms' innovative capability. Econometric results show that financial constraints do not depend on the availability of internal funds per se, but that they are driven by innovative capability. --
    Keywords: Innovation,financing constraints,innovative capability,multivariate probit models
    JEL: O31 O32 C35
    Date: 2011
  3. By: Mario Genco (Centre for Industrial Studies (CSIL))
    Abstract: Cost-benefit analysis allows to assess in advance the performance of investment projects through the calculation of appropriate indices, such as the NPV, the IRR, the B/C ratio. Performance indicators are, however, affected by the uncertainty inherent in the exercise of forecasting the future values of the physical and economic parameters generated by the project. Probability distribution of the expected values of each performance indicator can be determined, e.g., through Montecarlo simulations of the CBA model. Derived from the simulated probability distribution, the paper, starting from the definition of the loss function in the statistical decision theory, proposes a set of risk indicators (Index of absolute risk, Index of internal relative risk, Index of generalized relative risk), which include a "weight" function that models the level of aversion against the expected loss of the performance indices by the person who will bear the project risk.
    Keywords: risk analysis, risk adversion, Montecarlo simulation, cost benefit analysis - rischio, avversione al rischio, simulazione Montecarlo, analisi costi benefici
    JEL: D81
    Date: 2011–04–01
  4. By: Kiran Rupakhetee; Almas Heshmati (College of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, Korea University)
    Abstract: This study discusses different facets of implementation of e-government in Nepal. With the background theoretical information about e-government in general, the Nepalese case of e-government initiatives is discussed with a specific focus on the “e-government Mater Plan”. Important pillars of any e-government initiatives, namely infrastructure, human resources, institutions, and policy and legal aspects are looked into from the perspective of feasibility in e-government implementation in Nepal. While doing so, Heeks’s e-government success/failure model has been taken into consideration accounting for different dimensions, namely information, technology, process, objectives and values, staffing and skills, management systems and structures, and other resources, which are responsible to create design reality gap thereby jeopardizing the success of e-government projects. This study is the first which tries to analyze the constraints in e-government implementation resulted from shortcomings in infrastructure, human resources, institutions, and policy and legal aspects. The knowledge can be useful in facilitating a smoother implementation of the master plan.
    Keywords: E-government, e-governance, Heeks’s e-government success/failure model.
    JEL: D73 H54 I28 J24 L63 L86 L96
    Date: 2011–05
  5. By: Dobes, Leo
    Abstract: A factor common to all adaptation measures is the uncertainty that is the hallmark of climate change. The timing, intensity and location of climate change impacts is not known to any degree of precision. Because most deterministic analyses and policy prescriptions ignore this uncertainty, their recommendations are likely to waste community resources. Except by chance, adaptation measures will either be over-engineered, or they will be inadequate and result in harm. Applying real options thinking allows an incremental and flexible approach. Adaptation measures are implemented only as better knowledge becomes available over time. Several examples are given of real options in the Mekong Delta, with a comparison of net present values of two housing alternatives. It is essential to undertake net present value calculations when comparing different projects to ensure that the value of any options is weighed against other costs and benefits.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2010–11
  6. By: Greyling, Tertius; Bennett, Jeff
    Abstract: The Booroolong frog project in the Namoi Catchment represents an environmental investment to protect the species and around 10.7 kilometres of its habitat in the catchment. The projectâs benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 8.6 indicates that the benefits outweigh the costs by a significant margin. The measures introduced by landholders, at relatively low cost, should therefore result in a significant return on investment upon project completion in 10 years time. The benefits are estimated using a choice modelling study which was recently developed for the valuation of investment in natural resource management in the Namoi Catchment. As this is a largely ex ante cost-benefit analysis, the BCR is subject to uncertainty associated with assumptions which had to be made for some variables. However, sensitivity analysis indicates that the project benefits outweigh the costs by a significant margin even under conservative conditions.
    Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, Benefit-cost ratio, Choice modelling, Booroolong Frog, Namoi Catchment, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2011–03
  7. By: Greyling, Tertius; Bennett, Jeff
    Abstract: A cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of an investment in the protection of malleefowl and associated native vegetation in the Lachlan Catchmentâs central-west yielded a benefitcost ratio of 1.4. The CBA is based on project expenditures over the past four years coupled with benefit estimates from a recent Choice Modelling study in the Lachlan Catchment. The project targets the protection of malleefowl on private land which has not yet been surveyed but where the species is known to be present. The CBA is subject to significant uncertainty due to a lack of available data. Nonetheless, sensitivity analysis indicates that the BCR is consistently larger than unity, if marginal in some cases. This suggests that the project is a worthwhile investment at this early stage. Furthermore, greater gains may be achieved by addressing the numerous threats facing the species and its habitat. The increased cost of such an investment may be more than offset by the gains in benefits due to relatively conservative assumptions associated with the benefit calculations in the BCA.
    Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, Benefit-cost ratio, Choice modelling, Malleefowl, Lachlan Catchment, Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2011–03

This nep-ppm issue is ©2011 by Arvi Kuura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.