nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2011‒01‒30
nine papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Parnu College - Tartu University

  1. When instability increases the effectiveness of aid projects By Patrick Guillaumont; Rachid Laajaj
  2. Don’t spread yourself too thin. The impact of task juggling on workers’ speed of job completion By Decio Coviello; Andrea Ichino; Nicola Persico
  3. The micro processes underlying small firms'integration into territorial innovation dynamics - a knowledge based perspective By Rani Jeanne Dang; Christian Longhi; Catherine Thomas
  4. Incentives in Development Lending: Technical Cooperation By Josepa Miquel-Florensa
  5. Incorporating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Environmental Impact Assessments: Opportunities and Challenges By Shardul Agrawala; Arnoldo Matus Kramer; Guillaume Prudent-Richard; Marcus Sainsbury
  7. Do procurement rules impact infrastructure investment efficiency ? an empirical analysis of inversao das fases in Sao Paulo state By Blancas, Luis; Chioda, Laura; Cordella, Tito; Oliveira, Alexandre; Vardy, Felix
  8. Simulating security of supply effects of the Nabucco and South Stream projects for the European natural gas market By Dieckhoener, Caroline
  9. Real Options under Choquet-Brownian Ambiguitys By David Roubaud; André Lapied; Robert Kast

  1. By: Patrick Guillaumont (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Rachid Laajaj (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the effect of economic instability on the success of the projects funded by the World Bank, using the outcome of the projects, which is a notation of their overall success determined by the Independent Evaluation Group. It has been argued in macro economic studies that aid effectiveness is higher in vulnerable countries, because it dampens the negative effects of shocks. We show that this finding is not inconsistent with the observation that the success of the projects is lower in an unstable environment. Indeed instability, in particular the instability of exports, harms aid projects as it harms the rest of the economy, while the success of projects decreases when the total amount of aid received increases, due to absorptive capacity limitations. However this decrease is slower when instability is higher, showing a positive effect of aid through its stabilizing impact. We find the same results keeping only the projects funded by non concessionary loans, which suggests that the cushioning effect of aid extends not only to aid funded projects but to whole sets of projects. Corroborating macro economic findings, our results lead to the same conclusion that more aid should be allocated to more vulnerable countries, in spite of the lower success of the projects in an unstable environment: project evaluations cannot include the macro-stabilizing effect of the aid delivered through projects.
    Keywords: cerdi
    Date: 2011–01–18
  2. By: Decio Coviello (:Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Andrea Ichino (University of Bologna); Nicola Persico (Newyork University)
    Abstract: We show that task juggling, i.e., the spreading of effort across too many active projects, decreases the performance of workers, raising the chances of low throughput, long duration of projects and exploding backlogs. Individual speed of job completion cannot be explained only in terms of effort, ability and experience: work scheduling is a crucial “input” that cannot be omitted from the production function of individual workers. We provide a simple theoretical model to study the effects of increased task juggling on the duration of projects. Using a sample of Italian judges we show that those who are induced for exogenous reasons to work in a more parallel fashion on many trials at the same time, take longer to complete similar portfolios of cases. The exogenous variation that identifies this causal effect is constructed exploiting the lottery that assigns cases to judges together with the procedural prescription requiring judges to hold the first hearing of a case no later than 60 days from filing.
    Keywords: Individual production function, work scheduling, duration of trials
    JEL: J0 K0 M5
    Date: 2011–01–24
  3. By: Rani Jeanne Dang (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR6227 - Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis); Christian Longhi (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR6227 - Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis); Catherine Thomas (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR6227 - Université de Nice Sophia-Antipolis)
    Abstract: The paper is concerned with the process of SMEs' insertion into innovation projects within regional clusters. The objective is to contribute to a better understanding of this process by examining the underlying mechanisms of territorial innovation dynamics. A particular attention is given to the interplay between the features of territorial dynamics of innovation identified, and SMEs' capacity to participate to collaborative innovation projects. In this perspective, the article analyse the front-end process of territorial inter-organizational innovation, the early stage during which partners negotiate and establish collaborative innovation projects. Rather than investigating how clusters facilitate the access to new resources and knowledge, the crucial question here is how clusters allow the combination of different component of knowledge among heterogeneous actors. First, our findings reveal the key underlying role of architectural knowledge in local innovation processes. Second, they suggest that the nature of architectural knowledge inside the cluster influences the capacity and the motivation of SMEs to participate to local innovation projects. These findings contribute to theory by developing a grounded model of territorial dynamics of innovation and of SMEs integration into localised innovation projects
    Keywords: clusters; SMEs; architectural innovation; knowledge; local innovation projects
    Date: 2010–06–28
  4. By: Josepa Miquel-Florensa (Toulouse School of Economics (ARQADE), Toulouse, France)
    Abstract: This paper models incentives and information asymmetries between the different participants in multilateral development banks' decision process, namely borrowing countries, managers and the board of governors (with borrower and non-borrower members). We propose technical cooperation requirements as instruments for the board of governors to solve the moral hazard and adverse selection problems. We assume technical cooperation makes the probability of success not to depend on the agent's effort choice, as long as he provides effort, but on the principal's distribution of resources, and may also provide private benefits to the recipients. Moreover, the outcome of the agent's investment is a "public good" since is enjoyed in a non-rival fashion by both Board and agents. Using data on project performance reports from the IADB, we show that technical cooperation does have an impact on project results. Furthermore, we are able to differentiate for which projects, contract and recipients technical cooperation is more effective and relate the reported problems to the information asymmetries.
    Keywords: Information assymetry, multilateral development, IDB, IADB, Moral Hazzard, Governance, Latin America
    JEL: D82 F35 F53
    Date: 2011–01
  5. By: Shardul Agrawala; Arnoldo Matus Kramer; Guillaume Prudent-Richard; Marcus Sainsbury
    Abstract: National governments and development agencies have invested considerable effort in recent years to develop methodologies and tools to screen their projects for the risks posed by climate change. However, these tools have largely been developed by the climate change community and their application within actual project settings remains quite limited. An alternate and complementary approach would be to examine the feasibility of incorporating consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation within existing modalities for project design, approval, and implementation. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) are particularly relevant in this context.<BR>Les administrations nationales et les agences de développement ont consacré un effort considérable ces dernières années à la conception de méthodologies et d’outils d’évaluation de leurs projets du point de vue des risques posés par le changement climatique. Une bonne part de ces instruments ont toutefois été élaborés au sein de la communauté des spécialistes du climat mais sont encore rarement appliqués à des projets concrets. Une autre approche, complémentaire, serait d’étudier la faisabilité de la prise en compte des incidences du changement climatique et de l’adaptation à ce changement dans les modalités existantes de conception, d’approbation et de mise en oeuvre des projets. Les études d’impact sur l’environnement (EIE) sont particulièrement intéressantes à cet égard.
    Keywords: climate change, adaptation, risk assessment, environmental impact assessment (EIA), changement climatique, adaptation, évalutation des risques, étude d’impact sur l’environnement (EIE)
    JEL: Q51 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2010–08–17
  6. By: Rémi Jardat (ISTEC - Institut supérieur des Sciences, Techniques et Economie Commerciales - ISTEC)
    Abstract: We have conducted a field research on philanthropic “tsunami” projects in South-eastern India that are embedded in a quiet complex governance scheme (French Firm funding, execution by local NGOs, consolidated management by a French federation of NGOs), in which the classical notions of fraud and transparency prove to very ambiguous, so that accounting cannot be the main source of control. We show that the opacity of events at microscopic operational level is a mandatory condition for institutionalization of accounted “facts”. Therefore, we establish the importance of “translation” effects in the sense of Actor Network Theory (ANT). Beyond transparency that translation institutionalizes trough accounts, we raise an irreducible part of ignorance and incertitude that necessarily comes with every attempt to build knowledge for governance.
    Keywords: Transparency, ANT, Translation, India, NGO, Institutionalization
    Date: 2010–01–01
  7. By: Blancas, Luis; Chioda, Laura; Cordella, Tito; Oliveira, Alexandre; Vardy, Felix
    Abstract: As a means to reduce delays in public works implementation, a number of Brazilian states have recently reformed their procurement rules allowing contractor price proposals to be assessed before the technical evaluation of submitted bids is undertaken (in a procedure known as inversao das fases). In order to evaluate the effects of such reform, this paper adopts a difference-in-differences methodology to compare the procurement performance of Sao Paulo state (a reformer state) and Minas Gerais'(a non-reformer state) largest water and sewage utility along three efficiency dimensions: (i) procurement process duration; (ii) likelihood of complaint resolution litigation; and (iii) prices paid to contractors. The analysis finds that the reform is associated with a 24 day reduction in the duration of procurement processes for large projects and a 7 percentage point drop in the likelihood of court challenges irrespective of project size. Although both effects are economically important, only the latter is statistical significant. Finally, the paper finds no evidence of an effect of the procurement reform on prices paid.
    Keywords: Government Procurement,E-Business,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures,Contract Law,Investment and Investment Climate
    Date: 2011–01–01
  8. By: Dieckhoener, Caroline (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)
    Abstract: Due to the increasing European import dependency, significant additional natural gas volumes will be required. In addition to the Nord Stream pipeline, the Nabucco and South Stream pipeline are projects planned for the next decade to provide further gas supplies to the European market. <p> As one of the European Union’s energy policies’ foci is security of supply, the question can be raised if and how these projects contribute to this objective not only in terms of diversification but also in case of supply disruptions such as occurred in 2009 during the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis. <p> This paper discusses the impact of these two major gas import pipeline projects on the South-Eastern Europe gas supply and analyzes their effects on gas flows and marginal cost prices in general and in case of gas supply disruptions via Ukraine in a model-based analysis with the European natural gas infrastructure and dispatch model TIGER.
    Keywords: Natural gas; security of supply; Nabucco; South Stream; Europe; linear-optimization; transport infrastructure
    JEL: C61 L95 Q34 Q41
    Date: 2010–12–27
  9. By: David Roubaud; André Lapied; Robert Kast
    Abstract: Real options models characterized by the presence of “ambiguity” (or “Knightian uncertainty”) have been recently proposed. But based on recursive multiple-priors preferences, they typically describe ambiguity through a range of Geometric Brownian motions and solve it by application of a maxmin expected utility criterion among them (worst case). This reduces acceptable individual preferences to the single case of an extreme form of pessimism. In contrast, by relying on dynamically consistent “Choquet-Brownian” motions to represent the ambiguous cash flows expected from a project, we show that a much broader spectrum of attitudes towards ambiguity may be accounted for, improving the explanatory and application potentials of these appealing expanded real options models. In the case of a perpetual real option to invest, ambiguity aversion may delay the moment of exercise of the option, while the opposite holds true for an ambiguity seeking decision maker. Furthermore, an intricate relationship between risk and ambiguity appears strikingly in our model.
    Date: 2010

This nep-ppm issue is ©2011 by Arvi Kuura. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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