nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project, Program and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2007‒06‒11
five papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Parnu College - Tartu University

  1. The origins and implications of using innovation systems perspectives in the design and implementation of agricultural research projects: Some personal observations By Hall, Andy
  2. Infrastructure forecast modelling II; Policy planning via structural analysis and balanced scorecard. Electricity in Colombia case study. By Daniel TORRES – GRACIA,
  3. Provision of Primary Healthcare Services in Urban areas of Bangladesh – the Case of Urban Primary Health Care Project By Ahmad, Alia
  4. The economic impacts of a construction project, using SinoTERM, a multi-regional CGE model of China By Mark Horridge; Glyn Wittwer
  5. La création d’entreprise au féminin dans le monde occidental By de Beaufort, Viviane

  1. By: Hall, Andy (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: In recent years the there has been an increasing recognition of the potential of the innovation systems concept to provide new ways of making more effective use of agricultural research and improve its impact on socially desirable outcomes. This paper documents the experiences of a group of researchers in India who experimented with this framework and tried to operationalise its principles in project design. The paper comments on some of the implications of using this approach and the challenges it presents for implementers of agricultural research projects in developing countries.
    Keywords: Innovation Systems, Agricultural Research, Development Practice, Poverty Reduction, Research Projects, Project Design
    JEL: I38 O2 O31 O32 Q16
    Date: 2007
  2. By: Daniel TORRES – GRACIA,
    Abstract: Countless developments in forecasting models and processes have been developed in the last four decades, to support increasing demands in infrastructure services delivery and competitiveness. A wide range of these developments is available nowadays from highly detailed macroeconomic or technical forecasting models based on convergence of marginal functions, up to strategic business models supported on broad and soft methods of decision making modelling. Despite of this, it is surprising the little level of practical implementation of forecasting models within public infrastructure planning organisations involved in policy making and implementation processes that decide on short, medium and long term of important resources. Lacks on its practical approach, as well as the methodological complexity and high costs involved within its implementation processes, are among their major weaknesses reported in the literature. These models have been restricted to very specialized infrastructure planning units able to manage long term implementation process, involve highly qualified professional within the process and finance its related costs (private firms mostly). National and sub-national organizations with infrastructure planning functions, under tight schedules and financial restrictions, are applying softer focuses on forecasting modelling support on the social and institutional agreement on future goals as alternative method to replace complex analyses on future trends common in more complex models approaches. Although this “agreed” focus is valid under the assumption of the social acceptance premise, it is constraining technical validity to this validity, and reducing their trend’s analysis to any kind of technical assumption, whether rational or not, as long as it has been subjectively agreed. This focus has gained terrain within some national efforts in forecasting modelling in Colombia in the last years, reducing its technical analysis and quality in their practical results. The PPCI2 programme, through the Sustainable Infrastructure and Energy Directorate and DNP, within its objective of improve technical capacity in project planning process under private and public initiatives, promoted a methodological proposal to develop an infrastructure forecasting model able to empower technical quality of decision making models, under a practical, reliable and doable implementation process across top level decision makers of the infrastructure planning units at national level in Colombia. The result of that effort is the Infrastructure General Forecasting model – IGF introduced in this document. The IGF is a quantitative-qualitative model supported in the structural analysis process – SAP to study interactions across forecasted variables and the Balanced Scorecard methodology – BSC to the support decision making processes. The underlined analytical method is the matrix analysis of probabilistic cross impacts. Its major outputs include trends and long term figures on forecasted variables as forecasting models traditionally offer, but additionally includes analyses on the role played by forecasted variables under a set of trends alternatives within the sector they affect. Basic modules of the IGF model includes historical trends analysis, analysis on current situation and short term effect of new PPPs and forecasting simulation analysis. The three modules combine the analyst criteria with secondary data under a systematic approach. This document explains IGF´s conceptual basis and methodology, as well as its structure across energy, telecommunications, transport and water supply sectors, and some pilot results on the coverage and market of the electricity service. Results show strong inputs to empower technical and strategic capacity across infrastructure planning units in Colombia useful to policy makers, sector planners, consultants, lectures and researchers on infrastructure planning.
    Date: 2007–05–07
  3. By: Ahmad, Alia (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: Primary healthcare in Bangladesh is supposed to be a public responsibility, and until recently the government has tried to provide basic services directly through its own bureaucracy. However, the public sector faces acute problems in meeting the growing needs of urban population, especially the poor. In recent years, new institutions such as partnerships with not-for-profit private organizations are sought to improve the access and quality of primary care. This paper focuses on one urban partnership project, UPHCP in Bangladesh. It analyzes the accountability relationships among different stakeholders involved in the project and cost effectiveness of contracting out. The paper finds that the accountability relationships in UPHCP are not transparent, and the programme is costly in terms of human resources because of multiple principals and agents involved compared to direct government provision. The beneficial impact of UPHCP on urban primary care is well-documented, but such institutional arrangement will have difficulties in expansion on a large scale without external assistance. Another weakness of the programme is the lack of a sense of ownership and trust in its continuity among the population that works against social accountability and client power.
    Keywords: Contracting out; NGO's; Primary healthcare
    JEL: I12 I18
    Date: 2007–05–29
  4. By: Mark Horridge; Glyn Wittwer
    Abstract: The paper outlines the theory and database preparation of SinoTERM, a "bottom-up" computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. The methodology by which we construct the multi-regional model allows us to present the economy of China in an unprecedented amount of detail. SinoTERM covers all 31 provinces and municipalities. The database of the model extends the published national input-output table for 2002 to 137 sectors. The single crops sector in the published national input-output table is split into 11 and the single livestock sector into 3. The multi-regional CGE model provides a framework that we could modify to apply to many different policy applications. We can use SinoTERM to analyse the regional economic impacts of region-specific shocks. Such shocks could major construction projects or investments in health and education sectors, in an effort to accelerate economic growth in the lagging inland provinces. We use a 63 sector, 10 region aggregation of the SinoTERM master database to model the regional economic impacts of the proposed Chongqing-Lichuan rail link construction project.
    Keywords: CGE modelling, regional modelling, construction projects
    JEL: C68 R13 L74
    Date: 2007–06
  5. By: de Beaufort, Viviane (ESSEC Business School)
    Abstract: The principal aim of this study is to identify the dimensions implied by female entrepreneurialism, especially its potential economic contribution to national growth, its specificities, or the analysis of public or private initiatives willing to promote it. Thus, our goal is to issue a number of hypotheses as well as warnings and recommendations for the launch of specific initiatives towards women entrepreneurship. Female entrepreneurship is often considered as an insufficiently-exploited source of economic growth. The recent evolutions of the labour market forced number of women to create their own position so that they can balance their working and family lives with the drive to succeed on a meaningful project. Women entrepreneurs create employment for themselves and for others, sometimes in order to cater for needs a common employee status cannot fill (schedule and/or family obligations). Thanks to their specificities as managers dealing with common business issues such as organisation, they also bring their own potential to society. Women need more financial supports, adapted trainings, more mentoring, and more networks to reach equal opportunities with men. Depending on each country, both cultural context and the way gender diversity is achieved have an importance in reaching this goal.
    Keywords: Economic Growth; Tools of Success; Women Entrepreneurship
    JEL: H00 K00
    Date: 2007–02

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