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on Project, Program and Portfolio Management |
| By: | Juan Zalduendo; Manuela Goretti; Bikas Joshi; Atish R. Ghosh; Alun H. Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results. |
| Keywords: | Stand-by arrangements , predition , IMF lending capacity , IMF income position , |
| Date: | 2007–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/70&r=ppm |
| By: | Nicolas Büttner (University of Hamburg); Wolfgang Maennig (University of Hamburg); Marco Messner (University of Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | This study uses the example of the 2006 soccer World Cup in Germany to examine whether any systematic relationships exist between infrastructure investments on the one hand and investments in the respective stadium on the other. Particular attention is paid to an examination of whether the relative infrastructure costs in the case of newly-built stadia differ from those relating to stadia that have been reconstructed or extended. Such systematic relationships, or “rules of thumb”, could be used in the future to simplify the prediction of the expected volume of necessary infrastructure measures for major sporting events (other soccer World Cups, the Olympic Games, etc.) on the basis of the investment required for the sports venues. Our study makes use of a cluster and discriminance analysis and concludes that such general rules cannot be derived from the 2006 World Cup in Germany. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure investments, sport stadia costs, cluster analysis, discriminance analysis. |
| JEL: | L83 R42 R53 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spe:wpaper:0704&r=ppm |
| By: | Olken, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Accurate citizen perceptions of corruption are crucial for the political process to effectively restrain corrupt activity. This paper examines the accuracy of these perceptions by comparing Indonesian villagers' stated beliefs about corruption in a road-building project in their village with a more objective measure of `missing expenditures' in the project. I find that villagers' beliefs do contain real information, and that villagers are sophisticated enough to distinguish between corruption in a particular road project and general corruption in the village. The magnitude of their information, however, is small, in part because officials hide corruption where it is hardest for villagers to detect. I also find that there are biases in beliefs that may affect citizens' monitoring behaviour. For example, ethnically heterogeneous villages have higher perceived corruption levels and greater citizen monitoring, but lower actual levels of missing expenditures. The findings illustrate the limitations of relying solely on corruption perceptions, whether in designing anti-corruption policies or in conducting empirical research on corruption. |
| Keywords: | beliefs; corruption; perception |
| JEL: | D73 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6272&r=ppm |
| By: | Lechner, Michael; Wiehler, Stephan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates active labour market programs in Austria with a special emphasis on male-female effect heterogeneity. On average, we find only small effects, if any, for most of the programs. A crucial advantage of the large and informative administrative data we use is that it provides records about pregnancies and times of parental leave, in addition to the information that can typically be found in European administrative data sources used for evaluating active labour market policies. We show that these variables play a key role in removing selection bias and defining outcome variables which may explain why other similar studies found such programs to be more effective for women than for men. In particular for younger women a key effect of the programs is to reduce or postpone pregnancies and to increase the attachment to the labour force. After taking into account gender specific selection effects and the effects of the programs on pregnancies, gender differences (almost) disappear. |
| Keywords: | Active Labour market policy; matching estimation; panel data; program evaluation |
| JEL: | J68 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6267&r=ppm |