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on Project, Program and Portfolio Management |
| By: | Harin, Alexander |
| Abstract: | The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains a degree of (hidden) uncertainty. As a result, this uncertainty (in a sense, similar to vibrations, fluctuations) pushes the probability value back from the bounds to the middle of its range (from ~100% and ~0% to the middle probability values). In other words, the real values of high probabilities are lower than the preliminarily determined ones. Conversely, the real values of low probabilities are higher than the preliminarily determined ones. This result provides the uniform solution of a number of fundamental problems: the underweighting of high and the overweighting of low probabilities, the Allais paradox, risk aversion, loss aversion, the Ellsberg paradox, the equity premium puzzle, etc. The principle and its consequences can be applied in the fields of banking, investment, insurance, trade, industry, planning and forecasting. Explanations of the principle and examples of solution of three types of basic utility problems are provided. |
| Keywords: | risk; market; banking; industry; development; investments; insurance; hidden causes |
| JEL: | D8 A1 E22 G22 C7 |
| Date: | 2007–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:1959&r=ppm |
| By: | Pierre-André Mangolte (CEPN - Centre d'économie de l'Université de Paris Nord - [CNRS : UMR7115] - [Université Paris-Nord - Paris XIII]) |
| Abstract: | Cet article traite des logiciels libres et des projets de développement open source, c'est-à-dire de l'apparition d'une forme de production non-marchande du logiciel. Sans paiement ni investissement financier important, sans planning ni design préalable, des produits aussi complexes que Linux ou Apache ont pu voir le jour, comme s'ils sortaient d'une sorte de « chaudron magique » (Raymond, 1999). L'article cherche à comprendre et à dissiper les mystères de ce chaudron magique, en s'intéressant aux contraintes techniques de la production et au cycle de développement et de vie des logiciels; ces données étant rapprochées du cadre institutionnel existant (le copyright ou les licences open source (GPL, etc.)). Les formes d'organisation et de coordination de ces projets reposent alors sur la modularité, une certaine division du travail et un contrôle sélectif et hiérarchisé des différentes contributions. Ils s'inscrivent dans un schéma général "d'invention collective", où le libre partage et usage du code permet la production et l'évolution incrémentale des programmes. |
| Keywords: | logiciels libres; invention collective; coordination organisationnelle; open source |
| Date: | 2007–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:hal-00129395_v1&r=ppm |
| By: | Ismihan, Mustafa; Ozkan, F Gulcin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the implications of public investment for macroeconomic performance within a simple two-period policymaking model. We show that under the balanced-budget rule, the contribution of public investment to future output plays a key role in determining its effects on macroeconomic performance. When policymakers resort to debt issue in financing expenditures, the attractiveness of public investment crucially depends on the return from capital spending relative to the cost of public borrowing. We also consider the case of a capital borrowing rule where only public investment could be financed by additional borrowing and find similar results. Our findings point to the key role of the quality of public investment in its impact on macroeconomic outcome and highlight the importance of efficient mechanisms for selection, implementation and monitoring of public investment projects in both developed and developing countries. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomic performance; public debt; public investment |
| JEL: | E62 H50 H63 |
| Date: | 2007–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6139&r=ppm |
| By: | Chiara Binelli (University College London); Alessandro Maffioli (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the relationship between government interventions to promote investments in innovation and firms-financed R&D. Merging a unique panel data set on Argentinean firms in the 1990s with a data base on different types of public support received through FONTAR program, we estimate a fixed effects model and find evidence of a significant positive impact of FONTAR on private R&D. The result is robust to the use of an IV estimator that controls for the potential bias induced by changes in the structure of the program. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; policy evaluation; panel data |
| JEL: | O32 O38 C23 |
| Date: | 2006–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:ovewps:1106&r=ppm |
| By: | Hans G. Bloemen (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Elena Stancanelli (CNRS, GREDEG, Nice, and OFCE, Sciences-Po, Paris) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new estimates of the impact of the French tax credit on the employment outcomes of women. We model simultaneously the employment probability and the determinants of programme eligibility. We improve on earlier studies in this field that, using a single evaluation equation framework, predicted ex-ante programme eligibility. Within this framework, we also allow for hours responses. The data for the analysis are drawn from the French labour force surveys of years 1999 to 2002. We find no significant impact of the tax credit on either employment or hours of French women. |
| Keywords: | policy evaluation; difference-in-difference estimator; labour supply |
| JEL: | C34 I38 J21 |
| Date: | 2007–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070016&r=ppm |
| By: | Neil Esho; Anthony Coleman; Ilanko Sellathurai; Niruba Thavabalan (Australian Prudential Regulation Authority) |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of sharply rising house prices and Central Bank warnings that housing credit growth was not sustainable, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) conducted a ‘stress test’ to gauge the resilience of 120 Australian banks, building societies and credit unions to a substantial correction in the housing market. The stress test scenario mapped a 30 per cent fall in house prices to a substantial increase in default and loss rates. The results showed that all 120 institutions would remain solvent under the imposed conditions, however 11 institutions’ capital ratios fell below their regulatory minima. This paper details the stress testing methodology and traces through the various stages of the project, from background research, to stress test design, implementation, supervisory follow-up, public dissemination of the results and resulting policy changes.<p> |
| Date: | 2005–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apr:aprewp:wp2005-01&r=ppm |
| By: | Jean-Paul Faguet; Fabio Sanchez |
| Abstract: | The effects of decentralization on public sector outputs is much debated but little agreed upon. This paper compares the remarkable case of Bolivia with the more complex case of Colombia to explore decentralization’s effects on public education outcomes. In Colombia, decentralization of education finance improved enrollment rates in public schools. In Bolivia, decentralization made government more responsive by re-directing public investment to areas of greatest need. In both countries, investment shifted from infrastructure to primary social services. In both, it was the behavior of smaller, poorer, more rural municipalities that drove these changes. |
| Date: | 2006–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:001049:002815&r=ppm |
| By: | Peter Docherty (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney); Harry Tse (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney); Ross Forman (ELSSA Centre, University of Technology, Sydney); Jo McKenzie (Institute for Interactive Multimedia and Learning, University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on the implementation of a pilot program aimed at improving student writing in a intermediate macroeconomics course. The Program attempted to reduce what is labelled the <i>expectations gap</i> between student and academic perceptions of what constitutes "good writing". This was done in two ways, Firstly, a range of resources designed to describe the characteristics of good writing was provided to students who were helped to structure their writing according to these characteristics. A series of academic literacy workshops formed the centerpiece of this strategy. Secondly, markers themselves were briefed on these characteristics and an approach to marking based upon them was negotiated. The impact of this program on student writing was very promising. Students who attended the academic literacy workshops performed better in the first of two written assignments than those who did not, controlling for general ability. These students were less likely to fail and more likely to be awarded a grade at Distinction level or above. The paper also identifies a number of important areas that need to be developed at the next stage of implementation including better integration of published writing huidelines and sample papers into the workshop curriculum, and collection of more qualitative data to suppliment the quantitative evaluations the paper offers. |
| Keywords: | student writing; assessment; expectations; academic literacies; embedded programs |
| JEL: | A20 A22 |
| Date: | 2006–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uts:wpaper:150&r=ppm |
| By: | Carvalho, Pedro G.; Sonis, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper is an attempt to use the ideas of deepening complexity and self organization theory to a life experiment in developing tourism in a Portuguese mountain region da Estrela. |
| Keywords: | innovation diffusion; complexity; alternative choice; social innovation; learning process; tourism; portugal |
| JEL: | R58 O22 O52 O31 O18 |
| Date: | 2007–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:1918&r=ppm |
| By: | Venu Menon, Sudha |
| Abstract: | In social development and health sector, India’s performance is still lagging behind many Sub-Saharan African countries. There are also disparities between the urban and rural sectors and between privileged upper class and the socially disadvantaged groups. Widespread illiteracy, avoidable morbidity, premature mortality and deep-seated inequality of opportunity are still prevailing in India. India’s achievements in dealing with life expectancy, elementary education, nutritional well being, protection from illness, social security and consumption levels has been substantially and systematically out passed by many other developing countries. Compared to other countries, social sector expenditure is negligible in India, especially when compared it with UNDP recommended ratio. In the case of Indian state we can see that accelerated growth rate does not to have led to a corresponding change in living condition of rural poor. Here lies the importance of participatory mode of approach. The provision of social security cannot rely exclusively either on market forces or on the state initiative. There is an urgent need for participation in the distribution of social security measure. The move towards participatory growth calls for an integrated view of the process of economic expansion. The UN has defined community participation as ‘the creation of opportunity to enable all members of a community and the larger society to actively contribute to and influence the development process to share equitable the fruits of development’. This participatory mode of development views village community as the site for intervention. In this process it has to mediate through agencies working at that level. This is most commonly done through NGOs. In this broader context of Indian state’s commitment to liberalization, present paper attempts to study the participatory intervention of NGO in community health. For a detailed study, success story of AWARE - NGO working among the marginalized people in rural Andhra Pradesh is selected. The paper does not project NGO as viable alternative to fill the space vacated by state. But it only tries to establish that the objective of “Health for All” can be achieved only through community participation. The present paper is divided into 4 parts. The first part briefly outlines health sector performance and trends during the post reform era and its outcomes. The second part analyses the status of health sector in Andhra Pradesh, major indicators and initiatives. The third part in detail discusses the sustainable strategy of AWARE and its impact on health sector in rural Andhra. The final part contains major findings and concluding remarks. |
| Keywords: | India; Community health; participatory development; Andhra Pradesh. |
| JEL: | I18 |
| Date: | 2007–02–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:1938&r=ppm |