nep-ppm New Economics Papers
on Project and Portfolio Management
Issue of 2006‒12‒22
three papers chosen by
Arvi Kuura
Parnu College - Tartu University

  1. Assessing projects and programmes for cohesion policy at the EIB. By Gianni CARBONARO
  2. Assessing the contribution of investment projects to building a market economy: beyond cost-benefit analysis? By José CARBAJO
  3. Principle of Uncertain Future By Alexander Harin

  1. By: Gianni CARBONARO
    Abstract: The assessment of the technical, economic and financial quality of programmes and projects is one of the day-to-day activities at the European Investment Bank (EIB). The paper explains how this task is approached within the EIB, how some of the tools of cost-benefit analysis are employed, and how this approach may evolve during the forthcoming programming period of the Structural Instruments. Some of the recent initiatives of the EIB – in particular RAILPAG, the guidelines for project appraisal in the rail sector and JASPERS, Joint Assistance to Support Projects in European Regions - take a particular relevance in this context and are briefly explained
    Keywords: Cost-Benefit Analysis, Project evaluation, International Organizations
    JEL: D61 H43 O19
    Date: 2006–12
  2. By: José CARBAJO
    Abstract: The process of economic and political transition from central planning to market economy involves a profound transformation of the way the resources are allocated in the economy. In these circumstances, economists need to find ways to assess and compare the transition impact of investment projects by trying to identify the dynamics of change associated with projects and assess their potential long-run impact on the economy and its relevant actors. In order to assess the long run impact of a project on the process of transition from central planning to a market economy (the project’s “transition impactâ€), the Office of the Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has developed a set of criteria to identify the sources of such transition impact and to assess their relative strength. This process of identification and assessment has resulted in a transition impact methodology based on the informed value judgement of the economists who review projects. This paper describes this methodology and how it is implemented in the EBRD
    Keywords: Project Analysis, Transition, EBRD
    JEL: P21 O22 D61
    Date: 2006–12
  3. By: Alexander Harin (Modern University for the Humanities)
    Abstract: The principle of uncertain future: the probability of a future event contains a degree of (hidden) uncertainty. As a result, this uncertainty (in a sense, similar to vibrations, fluctuations) pushes the probability value back from the bounds to the middle of its range (from the very high and very low probability values to the middle ones). In other words, the real values of high probabilities are lower than the preliminarily determined ones. Conversely, the real values of low probabilities are higher than the preliminarily determined ones. This result provides the uniform solution of a number of fundamental problems: the underweighting of high and the overweighting of low probabilities, the Allais paradox, risk aversion, loss aversion, the Ellsberg paradox, the equity premium puzzle, etc. The principle and its consequences can be applied in the fields of banking, investment, insurance, trade, industry, planning and forecasting. Explanations of the principle and examples of solution of three types of fundamental problems are provided.
    Keywords: uncertainty; risk; market; banking; industry; development; investments; insurance; utility
    JEL: C D C7 D8 A1 D81 G11
    Date: 2006–12–04

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