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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Thomas Fujiwara; Hanno Hilbig; Pia Raffler |
| Abstract: | What accounts for differences in electoral success between male and female candidates? We argue that parties systematically nominate female candidates to districts where the party is less popular, making it harder for women to get elected. Our empirical strategy uses the German mixed electoral system to create counterfactual gender vote gaps. These gaps represent the scenario where male and female candidates are nominated in districts where their respective parties have equal popularity. Using data on all candidates for the German Bundestag across eleven elections, we document that female underperformance, and its variation across parties and election years, is explained almost entirely by women running in districts where their party is less popular. In contrast, we find no evidence that voter bias or candidate characteristics play a substantial role. Our argument highlights gendered party gatekeeping that increases in district strength as an important driver of female underrepresentation. |
| JEL: | P0 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34396 |
| By: | Stephanie Kang; Francesco Ferlenga |
| Abstract: | We study how expanding immigrants' rights affects their political and social integration by leveraging Romania's 2007 EU accession, which granted Romanian immigrants in Italy municipal voting and residency rights. Using municipality-level event studies, we find: (1) Enfranchisement increased the election of Romanian-born councilors — especially in competitive races — despite limited changes in candidacy rates. It also increased Romanian turnout, suggesting that electoral gains stem from an expanded voter base. An instrumented difference-in-differences analysis shows this is driven by pre-existing Romanian residents, not new arrivals. (2) Consent to organ donation rose among Romanians post-2007, indicating that the expansion of rights extends to prosocial behavior. (3) Nonetheless, immigrant presence continues to raise support for right-leaning parties and security spending while reducing social spending, highlighting persistent native backlash that outweighs immigrant political influence. |
| Keywords: | enfranchisement, migrant integration |
| JEL: | D72 J15 J18 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1521 |
| By: | Fadzayi Chingwere; Aimable Nsabimana; Kunal Sen |
| Abstract: | How does political alignment with the ruling party influence the audit outcomes of the firms? This paper investigates whether political alignment with the ruling party influences the intensity and outcomes of firm audits in South Africa. Using a regression discontinuity design based on close provincial election results from 2014, we examine how firms are treated in municipalities narrowly won versus narrowly lost by the African National Congress (ANC). |
| Keywords: | Elections, Audits, Firms, Tax evasion, South Africa |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-75 |
| By: | Vincent Anesi (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Tianxiong Yu (DEM, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | A large body of literature in Political Science emphasizes the importance of limiting opportunities for manipulation of legislative institutions by self-interested actors. This note shows that that the very conditions that shield institutions from agenda manipulation are precisely those that expose them to capture by special interests. This result holds in a highly general dynamic framework that encompasses a broad range of empirically relevant agenda institutions and policy-making environments, including those with policy uncertainty and experimentation |
| Keywords: | Democracy, economic influence, voting. |
| JEL: | D02 D72 D83 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:25-14 |
| By: | Daniel Ofori-Sasu (Accra, Ghana); Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor (Accra, Ghana); Dennis Nsafoah (New York, USA); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of regulatory independence of the central bank in shaping the impact of electoral cycles on bank lending behaviour in Africa. It employs the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) Two-Step estimator for a panel dataset of 54 African countries over the period, 2004-2022. The study found that banks lend substantially higher during election years, and reduce lending patterns thereafter. The study shows that countries that enforce monetary policy autonomy of the central bank induce a negative impact on bank lending behaviour while those that apply strong macro-prudential independent action and central bank independence reduce lending in the long term. The study provides evidence to support that regulatory independence of the central bank dampens the positive effect of elections on bank lending around election years while they amplify the reductive effects on bank lending after election periods. There is a wake-up call for countries with weak independent central bank regulatory policy to strengthen their independent regulatory policy frameworks and political institutions. This will enable them better strategize to yield a desirable outcome of bank lending to the real economy during election years. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy; Political Credit Cycles, Electoral Cycle; Central Bank Regulatory Independence; Bank lending Behaviour |
| JEL: | D7 D72 G2 G3 E3 E5 E61 G21 L10 L51 M21 P16 P26 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/020 |
| By: | Bury, Yannick; Feld, Lars P. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study whether local spending of intergovernmental grants is influenced by mayoral elections in the grant receiving municipality. We exploit the implementation of the German federal government's second economic stimulus package of 2009 (K2) in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg as natural experiment. In the context of this package, all municipalities in Baden-Wuerttemberg received lump-sum grants for local public investment spending. Applying difference-in-differences and instrumental variables approaches to ensure exogeneity of the decision of mayors to run for re-election, we provide evidence that, in the absence of an election, K2 grants led to an increase in a municipality's spending on long-run investment, while municipalities in which the incumbent mayor stood for re-election used grants to increase both, long-run and rapidly visible short-run investment expenditures. Moreover, we provide evidence in favor of the flypaper effect for all municipalities, except for those in which the incumbent mayor did not seek re-election. |
| Keywords: | Intergovernmental Grants, Flypaper Effect, Political Budget Cycles |
| JEL: | H30 H72 H77 H81 E61 E62 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:330329 |
| By: | Mufandaedza, Dhibhora |
| Abstract: | Zimbabwe has undergone remarkable political and economic changes since its liberation from British colonial rule in 1980. The first years after independence were characterised by optimism and progress. However, the nation also faced a plethora of hurdles, including political instability, economic decline and social unrest. Over time, the political environment became increasingly repressive. One cannot help but say that ZANU-PF as a whole has failed to meet the needs of Zimbabwean citizens. Zimbabwe continues to struggle with economic hurdles, political volatility, policy gaps, misgovernance, corruption, soaring inflation, unemployment and the need for sustainable reforms. The transition from colonialism to post-colonialism was characterised by violence and politicised identities, leading to false starts and repetition in the political landscape over the years. The situation in Zimbabwe is best described as from the gutter to the sewer. The Mnangagwa regime, which took over from Mugabe has made the situation worse for the citizens of Zimbabwe. Despite the holding of elections in 2018 and 2023, the political landscape in Zimbabwe remains tumultuous, characterised by intricate power struggles and counter-plots within the ruling party, ZANU-PF. The prevailing political culture has evolved into a labyrinthine and violent milieu, surpassing even the tumultuous nature witnessed during Mugabe's tenure. It is evident that the Mnangagwa regime is an outgrowth of Mugabeism, with the so-called Second Republic failing to effectuate a definitive departure from the Mugabe era.Munangagwa has not only failed to demilitarise the state, but has exacerbated militarisation, officially integrating the military into the nation’s political fabric. |
| Keywords: | Political, economic, independence, government of national unity, military, transition, Zimbabwe. |
| JEL: | N00 |
| Date: | 2025–01–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126609 |
| By: | Schacht-Picozzi, Philip |
| Abstract: | This study contests the emerging consensus that the educational realignment in voting behavior is centered on non-economic policies. Leveraging comprehensive post-election surveys and party manifesto data, I examine voter responses to previously underexplored dimensions of economic policy - most notably, predistribution versus redistribution. The analysis reveals that parties emphasizing predistributive over redistributive economic policies tend to attract disproportionately greater support from less-educated voters. This pattern aligns with evidence that lower educational attainment is associated with a stronger preference for predistributive policies. The strength of educational divides in voting responses, particularly pronounced for Social Democratic parties, overlaps with the intensity of educational divides in policy preferences. Both divides are more pronounced in the US and Germany and comparatively weaker in southern European countries. Finally, I examine several potential mechanisms underlying the educational divide in economic policy preferences. I identify openness to change and political interest as the most influential factors, while finding little support for a range of alternative explanations. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie stellt den sich abzeichnenden Konsens in Frage, wonach die Veränderung im Wahlverhalten unterschiedlicher Bildungsmilieus primär auf nicht-wirtschaftspolitische Themen zurückzuführen ist. Unter Verwendung umfassender Nachwahlbefragungen sowie Daten aus Parteiprogrammen analysiere ich die Reaktionen von Wählerinnen und Wählern auf bislang wenig untersuchte Dimensionen der Wirtschaftspolitik - insbesondere auf das Verhältnis zwischen prädistributiver (vorverteilender) und redistributiver (umverteilender) Politik. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Parteien, die den Schwerpunkt stärker auf prädistributive statt auf redistributive Politik legen, tendenziell mehr Unterstützung von Personen mit geringerem formalem Bildungsniveau erhalten. Dieses Muster deckt sich mit dem Befund, dass ein niedrigerer Bildungsstand mit einer stärkeren Präferenz für prädistributive Politik einhergeht. Die Ausprägung der Reaktionen im Wahlverhalten, die insbesondere bei sozialdemokratischen Parteien zutage tritt, deckt sich mit der Intensität der Unterschiede bei den wirtschaftspolitischen Präferenzen. Bildungsbedingten Unterschiede im Wahlverhalten und bei den Präferenzen sind in den USA und Deutschland besonders stark, während sie in südeuropäischen Ländern vergleichsweise schwach ausgeprägt sind. Abschließend untersuche ich potenzielle Mechanismen, die den unterschiedlichen wirtschaftspolitischen Präferenzen nach Bildungshintergrund zugrunde liegen. Offenheit für Veränderungen und politisches Interesse erweisen sich als die einflussreichsten Faktoren, während für eine Reihe alternativer Erklärungen nur geringe, bis keine Evidenz gefunden wird. |
| Keywords: | Educational realignment, economic policy, voting behavior |
| JEL: | D72 E65 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:330176 |
| By: | Bright A. Gyamfi (Udaipur, India); Divine Q. Agozie (Accra, Ghana); Ernest B. Ali (Accra, Ghana); Festus V. Bekun (Istanbul, Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | As the environmental sustainability effectiveness of various political systems is taken into consideration, it is doubtful as to whether the presumption of the overall efficiency of democracy can be sustained in global governance architecture. The effectiveness of autocracies and democracies (i.e., governance indicators are compared in the present study) with reference to strengths and weaknesses in environmental objectives. This analysis explores the effect of autocracy, democracy, as well as the trend of globalization on CO2 emissions for open and closed economies from 1990 to 2020. Crucial indicators such as economic growth, renewable energy and non-renewable energy are controlled for while examining the roles of economic expansion on the disaggregated energy consumption portfolios for both open and closed economies. The empirical analysis revealed some insightful results. First, for the open economies, with the expectation of non-renewable energy which show a positive significant impact on emissions, all variables show a negative effect on emissions. Furthermore, the closed economies result indicate that, apart from renewable energy which has a negative relationship with emissions, all the variables including the interaction terms have a positive relation with emissions. However, an inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis was validated for both economies. |
| Keywords: | Open economies, closed economies, democracy, autocracy, Environmental Kuznets Curve, globalization index, environmental sustainability. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/018 |
| By: | Horbach, Jens |
| Abstract: | The rising success of right-wing populist parties and governments affects the cooperation of states in many areas such as the mitigation of climate change or common solutions to the refugee problem. Therefore, a better understanding of the reasons behind the growing importance of right-wing attitudes and voter behaviour is crucial. The paper summarises the potential determinants of right-wing voting behaviour and attitudes including personal characteristics, the economic situation, peer and regional path dependencies, the role of social contacts and the political and institutional framework. The empirical analysis is based on the European Social Survey (wave 11 for 2023). The results of econometric estimations show that a low qualification level is positively correlated with right-wing attitudes and voter behaviour. European right-wing voters disproportionately use the internet and social media to obtain political information. Interestingly, the current economic situation is not correlated with right-wing attitudes and behaviour. In Germany, poor people are even less likely to vote for the right-wing party AfD. |
| Abstract: | Der zunehmende Erfolg rechtspopulistischer Parteien und Regierungen beeinträchtigt die Zusammenarbeit der Staaten in vielen Bereichen, wie beispielsweise der Eindämmung des Klimawandels oder gemeinsamen Lösungen für das Flüchtlingsproblem. Daher ist ein besseres Verständnis der Gründe für die wachsende Bedeutung rechtsgerichteter Einstellungen und des Wahlverhaltens von entscheidender Bedeutung. Der Beitrag fasst die potenziellen Determinanten des rechten Wahlverhaltens und der rechten Einstellungen zusammen, darunter persönliche Merkmale, die wirtschaftliche Lage, Peer- und regionale Pfadabhängigkeiten, die Rolle sozialer Kontakte sowie der politische und institutionelle Rahmen. Die empirische Analyse basiert auf der Europäischen Sozialerhebung (Welle 11 für 2023). Die Ergebnisse ökonometrischer Schätzungen zeigen, dass ein niedriges Qualifikationsniveau positiv mit rechten Einstellungen und Wählerverhalten korreliert. Europäische rechte Wähler nutzen überproportional häufig das Internet und soziale Medien, um sich politische Informationen zu beschaffen. Interessanterweise korreliert die aktuelle wirtschaftliche Lage nicht mit rechten Einstellungen und Verhaltensweisen. In Deutschland stimmen arme Menschen sogar seltener für die rechte Partei AfD. |
| Keywords: | Right-wing populism, European analysis, probit regressions |
| JEL: | O52 C25 P10 Y80 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:330178 |
| By: | Carvalho, João; Ruedin, Didier (University of Neuchâtel) |
| Abstract: | In the 2025 election, the populist radical right party Chega gained 22.8 per cent of the Portuguese vote. In this article, we examine changes in support for Chega at the municipal level between 2019 and 2025. We analyse the relationship between changes in predictors and changes in the outcome to better understand the rapid rise of the party. Changes in grievances are associated with changes in votes, notably decreases in income and increases in overall crime are associated with larger increases in support for Chega. By contrast, changes in social benefits, the share of the foreign population and net migration are not associated with changes in support. We show that net of grievances, changes in turnout are strongly associated with changes in votes for Chega – evidence of a mobilization effort. Key results are robust to different specifications. Thus, we highlight the mobilization effects of populist radical right parties. |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xr2dm_v1 |