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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Tito Boeri; Nina Nikiforova; Guido Tabellini |
| Abstract: | We study the communication strategies on Twitter/X of 367 political leaders in 21 countries, focusing on electoral competition between populists and non-populists. We measure polarization by the ease with which the leader can be classified as populist or not, conditional on his tweet. We find that political rhetoric becomes more polarized before and around election dates. This happens because, in pre-electoral quarters, opposite leaders are more likely to: i) talk about different topics, and ii) frame differently the same issues. Our results are consistent with competing politicians targeting different voters, rather than appealing to the same swing voters. |
| Keywords: | electoral competition, populism, partisanship, polarization |
| JEL: | H00 P00 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12558 |
| By: | L. Flóra Drucker (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf)); Attila Gáspár (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of a door-to-door information campaign on the outcome of Hungary’s 2022 parliamentary elections. Although newsletter circulation was not randomized, we employ three complementary identification strategies that yield consistent results: (i) settlement-level fixed-effects regressions with rich controls for concurrent campaign activity, (ii) a weather-based instrumental variable exploiting changes in local air pressure, and (iii) within-settlement comparisons using GPS data on activist routes. We find small but statistically significant positive effects on voter turnout, opposition vote share, and the share of invalid ballots in a government-backed anti-LGBTQ referendum. The latter result, in particular, suggests that the campaign succeeded in transmitting relatively sophisticated political messages even within a highly constrained media environment. Because the campaign did not reduce support for the ruling party, its effect appears to have operated primarily through mobilizing previously disengaged voters. |
| Keywords: | Information campaigns, Electoral behavior |
| JEL: | D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2519 |
| By: | Luis Guirola (AQR-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain.); Gonzalo Rivero |
| Abstract: | We study how political polarization impacts trust in the government and independent institutions. We gather microdata from 27 countries over three decades and identify 142 government changes. For each of these events, we run a difference in differences design comparing left and right-wing supporters to identify the effect on trust caused by a particular party controlling the executive. The estimated effect ranges from 0 to 2.1 standard deviations, and is systematically larger when party polarization is stronger– this variable alone explains 72% of the variation. The effect propagates onto trust in the European Central Bank and other institutions outside government control. Examining the mechanism, we find evidence consistent with a) lack of knowledge about independence and b) that elections under high polarization are high-stakes events affecting multiple dimensions, including subjective wellbeing, and trust toward the political system as a whole. |
| Keywords: | Political Polarization; Trust; Institutions; Politics. JEL classification: D72; D14; D02. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202511 |
| By: | Jacob Bastian |
| Abstract: | While the correlation between working and voting is positive, I provide the first causal evidence that this relationship is negative. Using five decades of Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) expansions and 1990s welfare reform as instruments for employment, I find that working lowers voter turnout and increases conservatism among lower-income mothers. Voter registration, political knowledge, and civic engagement decline, while preferences for conservative policies rise. Effects are largest for unmarried, younger, and less-educated mothers and are substantially stronger outside metropolitan areas. Notably, political shifts are concentrated among White women despite larger employment gains among non-White women, driven in part by White women entering more conservative coworker environments. Prior exposure to work also matters: women without working mothers experience larger ideological shifts. While recent decades have seen more women voting Democrat, even more women would have voted Democrat if not for decades of pro-work public policy targeting lower-income mothers. |
| JEL: | D72 H24 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34980 |
| By: | Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A.; Meißner, Daniel; Ziblatt, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a conceptual framework for assessing individual democratic commitment and demonstrates its usefulness in the German context. Building on and bridging existing strands of research (e.g. on support for democracy, conceptualizations of democracy, evaluations of democracy), the framework distinguishes between citizens' personal definitions of democracy and three analytically distinct but interconnected layers of democratic attachment: normative importance, evaluations of democratic performance, and affective engagement, captured through concern about democracy's future. Together, these elements clarify how citizens relate to democracy as they understand it. Drawing on a nationally representative survey conducted in December 2023, we provide descriptive evidence on each layer and their distribution across social and political groups in Germany. While democratic importance is very high overall, evaluations of democratic performance are more moderate and concern about democracy's future is widespread, particularly among supporters of the AfD and residents of eastern Germany. This configuration underscores the importance of distinguishing between the strength of democratic attachment and the substantive content individuals associate with democracy. Without this distinction, high concern and strong support could be misinterpreted as indicators of democratic commitment, even when citizens' personal definitions of democracy stand in tension with democratic principles. Our findings thus also highlight the importance of the affective layer as a key mobilization potential. |
| Keywords: | democratic commitment, democratic attachment, AfD, Germany |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbwrt:338884 |
| By: | Sayantan Ghosal; Łukasz Woźny |
| Abstract: | Although a Condorcet winner commands a majority in its favor, there is no guarantee of unanimity. In a Lindahl equilibrium, a suitably chosen system of personalized transfers and prices ensures unanimity, but there is no guarantee of a majority vote in its favor. Do Lindahl equilibria decentralize Condorcet winners? In a setting where voters' preferences are satiated, characterized by bliss points, this paper proposes a new balancedness condition which is satisfied when a Condorcet winner lies within the interior of the convex hull of voters' bliss points. We show that such a political compromise between the most preferred policies of different voter types can be decentralized as Lindahl equilibria. |
| Keywords: | Bliss points, Condorcet winner, Lindhal equilibria, balancedness |
| JEL: | D50 D61 D71 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2024101 |
| By: | Eichengreen, Barry; Saka, Orkun; Aksoy, Cevat |
| Abstract: | Epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders. This loss of trust is associated with epidemic-induced economic difficulties, such as lower income and unemployment later in life. It is observed for political institutions and leaders only and does not carry over to other institutions and individuals. A key exception is a strong negative effect on confidence in public health systems. This suggests that the distrust in political institutions and leaders is associated with the (in)effectiveness of a government’s healthcare-related response to epidemics. We show that the loss of political trust is largest for individuals who experienced epidemics under weak governments with low policymaking capacity, and confirm that weak governments in fact took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to COVID-19. We report evidence that the epidemic-induced loss of political trust discourages electoral participation in the long term. |
| Keywords: | epidemics; trust; political approval |
| JEL: | D72 F50 I19 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115235 |
| By: | Patricia Agyapong |
| Abstract: | Do natural resources affect public trust in political leaders and institutions? In this study, I use a difference-in-differences approach to investigate this question, focusing on Ghana’s discovery of high-grade offshore oil in 2007. I find that individuals living close to the oil fields became less trusting of political leaders and institutions after the discovery. The findings suggest that the oil discovery’s impact on political trust varies depending on pre-existing social and economic condi¬tions such as educational status, employment status and the level of media exposure. Additionally, individuals located near the oil fields reported more negative views about Ghana’s democracy, corruption, government performance, and economic conditions. The results suggest a potential link between increased bribe payments in these locations and declining trust. |
| Keywords: | natural resources; political trust; governance; corruption; public attitudes; difference-in-differences; Ghana; Afrobarometer |
| JEL: | D72 H11 O17 Q33 C21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2026-03 |
| By: | Valerie Capraro (University of Milan-Bicocca); Folca Panizza (IMT School for Advanced Studies); Joseph A. Vitriol (Lehigh University); Mikey Biddlestone (University of Kent); Andrè Krouwe (Vrije University); Yordan Kutiyski (Kieskompas); Alberto López Ortega; Ana Ebert (The Psychology of Political Behavior Studies); Max Wan (The Psychology of Political Behavior Studies); Jasmin M. L. Hagemann (The Psychology of Political Behavior Studies); Sophie Hetche (The Psychology of Political Behavior Studies); André Kaiser (TUniversity of Cologne); Praveen Kujal (Middlesex University and Chapman University); Karen M. Douglas (University of Kent); Christopher M. Federico (University of Minnesota); Jolanda Jetten (University of Queensland); Sander Van Der Linden (University of Cambridge); Flávio Azevedo (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | Authoritarian leaders frequently deploy conspiracy narratives to justify power concentration and delegitimize opponents, yet the link between authoritarianism and conspiracism remains underresearched. Integrating data across six studies from multiple international surveys (N=63, 403; 20 countries), expert-coded party systems (71 countries; 14 datasets), and longitudinal panel studies, we demonstrate that individuals with stronger authoritarian orientations are consistently more prone to conspiracism across diverse cultures, political contexts, and time. These results remain robust when controlling for populist attitudes and multiple political, psychological, and demographic variables. The link between authoritarianism and conspiracism appears to constitute a durable and generalizable psychological relationship. This may help explain why conspiratorial narratives and authoritarian politics so often co-occur, with important implications for democratic resilience in an era of rising institutional distrust, anti-scientific attitudes, misinformation, and post-truth politics. |
| Keywords: | authoritarianism, conspiracism, political psychology, populist attitudes, relative deprivation, motivated social cognition |
| JEL: | D9 D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:26-03 |
| By: | Gábor Békés (Central European University; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Attila Gáspár (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Gábor Simonovits (Central European University; ELTE TK); Márton Végh |
| Abstract: | How do ethnically motivated terrorist attacks shape electoral support for the far right? We study a unique case: a coordinated series of anti-Roma murders in Hungary in 2008–2009, the most severe episode of anti-minority violence in the country since World War II. Combining difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods, we compare attacked settlements to multiple counterfactuals, including planned-but-unrealized targets. We find that Jobbik, Hungary’s radical right party, gained 11–14 percentage points more support in attacked villages than in comparable controls in the 2010 election—an increase 53–70% larger than baseline trends. The effect persisted for several years and spilled over to nearby settlements. In contrast to some research from Western Europe suggesting that right-wing terrorism can reduce far-right appeal, our findings highlight how deep-seated prejudice can reverse this pattern. The results underscore the importance of antecedent inter-group relations in conditioning political reactions to ethnic violence. |
| Keywords: | electoral behavior, prejudice, terrorism, conflict |
| JEL: | D72 D74 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2520 |
| By: | Barbara Boelmann; Carola Stapper |
| Abstract: | Over the past century, women have gained formal political rights, yet remain underrepresented in leadership—partly due to lower demand for representation among women themselves. In this paper, we shift the perspective from why men extended political rights to women toward what shaped women’s own demand for representation. Specifically, we study how male absence during World War I affected German women’s demand for the franchise, exploiting exogenous variation in drafting intensity across regions for identification. To make demand for political representation directly measurable, we construct a newly digitised panel dataset of the universe of German suffragette clubs—a revealed-preference measure of demand, given the considerable costs of maintaining a club, especially under wartime restrictions on political activism. Our results show that women were more likely to keep suffragette clubs open in counties with greater male absence. This effect is driven by regions where women publicly led war relief efforts, pointing to agency and specifically women’s experience in visible leadership roles as the central mechanism. We further show that this demand for representation persisted after the franchise was extended, with women more likely to run for parliament and to vote in counties with greater wartime male absence and a suffragette club. |
| Keywords: | women's political representation, suffrage movement, agency |
| JEL: | J16 N44 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_740 |
| By: | Łukasz Wiktor Olejnik; Marcin Grygo |
| Abstract: | To date, there have been dozens of publications confirming the existence of alignment bias or hometown bias in the allocation of intergovernmental grants. However, the assumption is typically made that members of one party support one another in principle. Meanwhile, in proportional systems, candidates from one party compete with one another for a seat in parliament, which may affect the distribution of grants. This paper analyses the distribution of investment grants to local governments from the Polish Covid-19 Response Fund in 2021-2023. It presents results suggesting that if the distribution of discretionary investment grants is controlled by the members of a single party faction, local governments with ties to the hometowns or birth towns of members of parliament (MPs) representing that faction receive significantly more funding than other local governments. The hometowns or birth towns of opposition members receive significantly lower grants, while the hometowns or birth towns of politicians from the opposite faction of the ruling party receive the lowest grants. This supports the hypothesis that intra-party rivalry and the desire to reduce the re-election chances of rivals can have a powerful impact on the distribution of discretionary grants. |
| Keywords: | alignment bias, hometown bias, core vs. swing voters hypothesis, intra-party competition |
| JEL: | D72 H72 H73 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2024104 |
| By: | Chugh, Aditi; Resnick, Danielle |
| Abstract: | Global calls to repurpose agricultural support toward more sustainable and equitable food systems have intensified scrutiny of fertilizer subsidies. While political economy constraints often hinder reform, the exact manifestation of these constraints is rarely examined. To clarify the specific mechanisms at play, this paper systematically reviews peer-reviewed studies from 2000 to 2025 and identifies 38 fertilizer subsidy reform cases across 15 countries. We code political economy factors influencing outcomes at different stages of subsidy adoption and redesign. The analysis shows that ideational factors around self-sufficiency, the private sector, and the social contract, as well as the institutional structures impacting policymaking, are central to successful subsidy introduction. Electoral incentives play a role at both the policy introduction and redesign phases. Yet, political economy factors are not the only prominent drivers. In fact, technocratic considerations about underperformance or corruption became more prominent during redesign efforts but were also present in more than 80 percent of failed cases. This reaffirms that while technocratic factors, including the availability of research and evidence are necessary for subsidy design improvements, they are not sufficient on their own. By distinguishing which political economy factors matter and how they interact with broader policy process dynamics, this study provides a more actionable foundation for anticipating and managing challenges to fertilizer subsidy reforms and repurposing more broadly. |
| Keywords: | fertilizers; subsidies; reforms; policies; political ecology |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:180322 |
| By: | Attila Gáspár (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Pawel Bukowski (University College London; Polish Academy of Sciences); Gregory Clark (University of Southern Denmark; University of California at Davis); Rita Pető (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) |
| Abstract: | In the rich political history of Hungary, between 1780 and 2025 there have been 5 consolidated political regimes: monarchy (until 1867), constitutional monarchy, 1867-1918, authoritarian nationalism, 1920-1945, socialism, 1947-1989, and parliamentary democracy, 1989-2025. In this paper we show how the relative frequency of elite and underclass surnames among elite occupations and political positions can be used to map out both the social status of traditional elites in Hungary, but also the traditional underclass. This data suggests that across all 5 regimes the underclasses in Hungary saw a slow but steady rise in social status. They remain however, after 200 years still in position of social disadvantage. Political regimes, however, did have substantial impact on the social status of the traditional elite. In particular this elite prospered in the nationalist era, 1920-45, and temporarily suffered under socialism, 1947-89. |
| Keywords: | Social Mobility, Intergenerational mobility, Inequality |
| JEL: | J62 N33 N34 D31 P26 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2518 |
| By: | Jon Eguia; Tai-Wei Hu |
| Abstract: | We present a theory of endogenous policy preferences and political beliefs with boundedly rational agents who find it costly to process detailed information. Agents are otherwise fully rational, and they strategically choose how to process information. Their optimal solution is to update coarsely, ignoring less informative signals, and lumping together different histories into a single informational state. We consider an environment with a common prior, in which all agents prefer a moderate policy over extreme alternatives to the left or the right under this prior, and with common signals that would allow Bayesian-updating agents to asymptotically learn the state of Nature and to agree on the policy that is best for everyone. In this environment, we find sufficient conditions under which a majority of agents eventually become extreme and the population becomes polarized: some agents support the left policy, and some support the right policy. |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:26/826 |
| By: | Chinoy, Sahil; Nunn, Nathan; Sequeira, Sandra; Stantcheva, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | We investigate the origins and implications of zero-sum thinking: the belief that gains for one individual or group tend to come at the cost of others. Using a new survey of 20, 400 US residents, we measure zero-sum thinking, political preferences, policy views, and a rich array of ancestral information spanning four generations. We find that a more zero-sum mindset is strongly associated with more support for government redistribution, race- and gender-based affirmative action, and more restrictive immigration policies. Zero-sum thinking can be traced back to the experiences of both the individual and their ancestors, encompassing factors such as the degree of intergenerational upward mobility they experienced, whether they immigrated to the United States or lived in a location with more immigrants, and whether they were enslaved or lived in a location with more enslavement. |
| Keywords: | zero-sum; redistribution; political values; cultural transmission |
| JEL: | D72 D91 H23 J15 J16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128930 |
| By: | Lena von Deylen; Erik Wengström; Philipp Christoph Wichardt |
| Abstract: | This paper reports results from a preregistered survey experiment (ca. 2000) designed to test the connection between economic worries and individual attitudes toward migration and universalism. The experiment was conducted in Germany in February 2025, prior to the general elections, at a time when the German economy had been facing difficulties for some some years. Subjects were assigned to one of four treatments -- one neutral baseline and three setting with varying information about the economy and a question about how threatening the subject's perceive this to be (in general and for them personally). The data show that prompting subjects to reflect on their economic concerns increases migration scepticism and tends to reduce universalism compared to a non-economic control treatment. With respect to the current political polarisation and the rise of (anti-immigrant) populist movements, the findings suggest that reported reservations about migration are likely to be at least partly driven by worries and uncertainties in other domains. |
| Keywords: | economic crisis, anxiety, migration, polarisation, political preferences |
| JEL: | D91 O15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12561 |
| By: | Nicola Gennaioli; Frederik Schwerter; Guido Tabellini |
| Abstract: | In an online experiment with a representative US sample (N=12, 960) we show that increasing the salience of an economic or cultural conflict without providing any news boosts disagreement on a range of political issues by 8-35%. The data support two key predictions of the Bonomi et al. (2021) identity theory of political beliefs. First, polarization amplifies – through stereotypes – latent disagreement among the economic or cultural groups standing in salient conflict. Second, there is belief realignment away from no-longer salient groups, causing some people to move across the conservative-progressive divide. These results can illuminate real-world political conflicts and propaganda. |
| Keywords: | social identity, stereotypes, belief realignment |
| JEL: | D72 D83 D91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12547 |
| By: | Henderson, Lou; Kaiser, Moritz |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the interaction between political economy and social mobility during early industrialization in England. We analyze changes in male social mobility patterns in industrializing Coventry (c.1790–1850) following a transformation of key institutions affecting the labor market. Social mobility was framed by the interaction between trade policy, occupational skill formation, and municipal government. Using a longitudinal dataset and regression-discontinuity analysis, we find that liberal reforms to trade policy and municipal government during the late-1820s and early-1830s eroded the value of industry-specific social capital, while increasing the contribution of general human capital to social mobility. |
| Keywords: | social mobility; human capital; industrialisation; labour markets; institutions; political economy |
| JEL: | N33 |
| Date: | 2025–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126202 |
| By: | Coulibaly, Yacouba; Coulibaly, Aissata |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of women’s political empowerment on public spending efficiency in developing countries. Using a large panel of 126 developing countries over 1995–2021, the paper constructs public spending efficiency scores based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis, capturing governments’ ability to transform public expenditures into socioeconomic outcomes. The analysis employs a fractional regression model with a bootstrap and instrumental variable approach, complemented by alternative identification strategies. The results consistently show that higher levels of women’s political empowerment significantly improve public spending efficiency. These findings remain robust in alternative estimators, additional controls, subsamples, and alternative measures of women’s empowerment. In addition, a transmission channel analysis further reveals that this positive effect operates primarily through improved governance quality, particularly stronger control of corruption, while fiscal capacity and education spending play complementary but less dominant roles. These findings suggest that policies promoting women’s effective participation in political decision-making—beyond symbolic representation—should be integrated into fiscal governance and anti-corruption strategies to improve public sector performance in developing countries. |
| Date: | 2026–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11336 |