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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | KAREKURVE-RAMACHANDRA, VARUN (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the staggered implementation of gender quota policy in India to understand whether women who won office due to quotas go on to win higher-level office. Indian local government elections impose mandatory gender quotas, but state elections do not. This provides a setting to assess if there is an increase in women's representation at higher levels of governance due to quotas at the local level. The identification strategy allows me to ascribe an increase of three percentage points in the share of women at the state-level to gender quotas in local government. Additionally, to establish upward political mobility of local-level leaders I tracked political biographies of over 1000 women legislators across India's 15 major state assemblies. In doing so, I identify that political dynasties, and ground-level leadership --- those who entered politics due to mandatory gender quotas --- are the two primary channels that enable entry of women into state-level politics. Further, I show that the effect of democratic entry of women into politics via quotas is pronounced in states with parties that are reliant on empowered rank and file members. Overall, these results highlight the importance of gender quotas as a democratic state-building tool and provide evidence for career advancement of women in politics whose democratic entry into politics was facilitated by the implementation of mandatory gender quotas. |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4zqve_v1 |
| By: | Pongou, Roland; Sidie, Ghislain Junior |
| Abstract: | Ranked voting is an election format in which each voter ranks candidates on a ballot, and individual rankings are aggregated using a general rule to produce a social ranking. This paper proposes a non-cooperative model of this electoral system. The setting allows for unequal voting rights, abstention, and social incomparability of candidates, and each voter's utility is measured by how close his or her true preferences are to the social ranking. The analysis uncovers three main findings. First, it proves the existence of a pure strategy Nash equilibrium. Second, it shows that truthtelling is always a Nash equilibrium regardless of the voting rule and the structure of individual preferences. Third, under mild conditions, truthtelling is Pareto-efficient when voters have strict preferences. Extending the analysis to majoritarian elections with costly voluntary participation shows that truthtelling is an equilibrium if and only if the costs of participation are not too high and the election is tight. The findings have implications for the design of ranked voting systems that are compatible with truthtelling and efficiency while allowing unrestricted freedom in the choice of the voting rule. A reinterpretation of the model in the context of intrapersonal bargaining, where the decision-maker has multiple rational selves, has implications for the occurrence of cyclic individual choices that reflect stable and efficient behavioral patterns. |
| Date: | 2024–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10837 |
| By: | Arnone, Massimo; Drago, Carlo; Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Angelo |
| Abstract: | The current study addresses political party trust and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principle application in Italian regions. Trust in political parties is a principal driving force in governance performance, compliance with policies, and citizen trust in institution-made choices. With political and economic diversity in its regions, Italian regions present a case study for testing whether political institution trust increased creates increased ESG use and whether ESG policies have an impact in shaping political trust in reciprocity. Empirical evidence confirms that in high political trust regions, ESG programs have a high opportunity for effective implementation, particularly in social welfare and conservation of environment. In contrast, political institution trust weakness is accompanied with poor ESG pledges, an expression of inefficient governance and reduced accountability in companies. ESG policies actually have an impact on political trust—effective and transparent ESG actions establish institution trust, but shallow and political ESG actions produce mistrust. The observations have a function of projecting the contribution towards balancing institution trust with sustainability through governance quality. Policymakers can contribute towards leveraging political stability in driving ESG integration in a manner that keeps such programs effective and credible for long-term development in regions and for democratic legitimacy. |
| Keywords: | Political Trust, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG), Institutional Governance, Regional Disparities, Sustainability Policies. |
| JEL: | D72 G34 M14 Q58 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123494 |
| By: | Panarello, Christian |
| Abstract: | Lichtman's Thirteen Keys Model has, after ten elections of success, succumbed to its first failure in Donald Trump's first victory in both the popular vote and electoral college measures. For his protection of the Keys, he has cited mass misinformation (as he suggests is produced by Elon Musk's ownership of Twitter/X) and right-wing podcasters’ assumedly uncritical support of the presidential nominee. However, this hypothesis appears arbitrary, especially relative to recent elections where the Keys have been successful. This article instead postulates a Structuralist argument – functioning to describe innate administrative normativities (the structure of government as described by its electoral and legislative composition) – which hinges on the consistency that Lichtman interpreted (particularly in his introductory work with Keilis-Borok) in showing the Keys to be a consistent model; the Keys are further shown to be unswayed by projected collective social proclivities. |
| Date: | 2024–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:v2kxm_v1 |
| By: | Brice Fabre (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Marc Sangnier (UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur], AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses French data to simultaneously estimate the impact of two types of connections on government subsidies allocated to municipalities. Investigating different types of connection in a same setting helps to distinguish between the different motivations that could drive pork-barreling. We differentiate between municipalities where ministers held office before their appointment to the government and those where they lived as children. Exploiting ministers' entries into and exits from the government, we show that municipalities where a minister was mayor receive 30% more investment subsidies when the politician they are linked to joins the government, and a similar size decrease when the minister departs. In contrast, we do not observe these outcomes for municipalities where ministers lived as children. These findings indicate that altruism toward childhood friends and family does not fuel pork-barreling, and suggest that altruism toward adulthood social relations or career concerns matter. We also present complementary evidence suggesting that observed porkbarreling is the result of soft influence of ministers, rather than of their formal control over the administration they lead.✩ This paper was previously circulated under the titles ''What motivates French pork: Political career concerns or private connections?'' and ''The returns from private and political connections: New evidence from French municipalities''. We greatly appreciated comments and suggestions from three anonymous reviewers, the Editor, |
| Keywords: | Local favoritism, Distributive politics, Political connections, Personal connections |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ipppap:hal-04930928 |
| By: | Wintemute, Garen J.; Crawford, Andrew; Tomsich, Elizabeth A.; Pear, Veronica A. |
| Abstract: | Background: In 2022, a nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, but those prevalences decreased in 2023. This study examines changes in those prevalences from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA. Methods: Participants were members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Wave 3 of the survey was conducted May 23-June 14, 2024; invitations to participate were sent to all respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions. Year-to-year change is based on the means of aggregated individual change scores, which have a potential range from 0 (no change) to ±2. Results: The 2024 completion rates were 88.4% (8896 respondents/10, 064 invitees) overall, 91.6% (8185 respondents/8932 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2023, and 62.8% (711 respondents/1132 invitees) for invitees in 2024 who had responded in 2022 but not in 2023. After weighting, 50.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.5%, 52.3%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (24.9) years. From 2023 to 2024, the prevalence of the view that violence was usually or always justified to advance at least 1 political objective did not change (2024: 26.2%, 95% CI 25.0%, 27.5%; 2023: 25.3%, 95% CI 24.1%, 26.5%). There were no changes from 2023 to 2024 in willingness to damage property, threaten a person, injure a person, or kill a person in an act of political violence, and no changes in expectations of firearm use in situations where respondents considered political violence justifiable. Changes on other measures were infrequent (17 of 58 comparisons in the main analysis) and small where they occurred (with 2 exceptions, change < 0.05). Conclusions: Contrary to expectation, support for and willingness to participate in political violence in this cohort showed little to no change from 2023 to 2024, an election year in the USA. These findings can help guide prevention efforts. |
| Date: | 2024–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6crkf_v1 |
| By: | Sobhy, Hania |
| Abstract: | The limited electoral success of pro-Revolution forces during the Arab uprisings is often attributed to their weak political and organizational resources. Yet, in the first round of Egypt’s historic 2012 presidential elections, pro-Revolution candidates Hamdin Sabahi and Abdel-Monim Abul-Futuh jointly outperformed both the ‘old regime’ and Muslim Brotherhood contenders, with Sabahi nearly reaching the runoff. Drawing on extensive fieldwork across Egypt between 2012 and 2013, this article examines how the campaigners of these two candidates translated the Revolution’s core ideals of freedom and social justice. It introduces the notion of citizenship imaginaries to capture how campaigners communicated these ideals across divergent experiences and narratives of relating to the state. It argues that the two campaigns—differently—compensated for their weaknesses by aligning their messaging with dominant imaginaries in three important ways: downplaying appeals to democracy and radical change except when engaging “cultured voters”; advancing a vague but credible pro-poor stance; and adapting appeals traditionally tied to the two more powerful political forces: stability, Islamism and patronage. By linking resources, imaginaries and the agency of social movement actors, the article offers new perspectives on electoral dynamics and the strategic communication of mobilization frames, especially in transitional and global South contexts. |
| Date: | 2024–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qkme8_v1 |
| By: | RezaeeDaryakenari, Babak (Leiden University) |
| Abstract: | While politicians often argue that economic sanctions can induce policy changes in targeted states by undermining elite and public support for the reigning government, the efficacy of these measures, particularly against non-democratic regimes, is debatable. We propose that, counterintuitively, economic sanctions can bolster rather than diminish support for the sanctioned government, even in non-democratic contexts. However, this support shift and its magnitude can differ across various political factions and depend on the nature of the sanctions. To empirically evaluate our theoretical expectations, we use supervised machine learning to scrutinize nearly 2 million tweets from over 1, 000 Iranian influencers, assessing their responses to both comprehensive and targeted sanctions during Donald Trump’s presidency. Our analysis shows that comprehensive sanctions generally improved sentiments toward the Iranian government, even among its moderate oppositions, rendering them more aligned with the state's stance. Conversely, while targeted sanctions elicited a milder rally-around-the-flag response, the identity of the targeted entity plays a crucial role in determining the scale of this reaction. |
| Date: | 2024–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:r7ae4_v1 |
| By: | , Adrian Alexander M.A. in Social Psychology |
| Abstract: | "Divided We Fall: A Multidisciplinary Analysis of Polarisation, Social Divides, and the Fragility of Unity in Human Societies" explores the escalating threat of polarisation and tribalism in modern human societies. By examining historical case studies, such as Nazi Germany and McCarthyism, alongside contemporary events like Brexit and the U.S. elections of 2016 and 2024, the paper identifies recurring patterns in how societal divisions are exploited for political and ideological gain. The analysis integrates insights from social psychology, highlighting cognitive biases like confirmation bias, in-group/out-group dynamics and heuristic-driven decision-making, which leave individuals vulnerable to manipulation. The paper also delves into the role of emerging technologies, such as social media and AI-driven propaganda, in amplifying divisions, creating echo chambers and eroding democratic norms. Beyond diagnosing the problem, it explores opportunities for fostering unity, drawing on historical examples of collective action, such as post-WWII reconstruction and the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings underscore the fragility of social cohesion and emphasize the urgent need for proactive leadership, media responsibility and grassroots mobilisation to counter polarisation. This multidisciplinary framework aims to provoke discussion on how humanity can navigate its growing divides and build resilience against future existential threats. The paper also explores how modern technologies—such as social media algorithms and artificial intelligence—amplify polarization, creating echo chambers and eroding trust in democratic processes. Insights from social psychology, including heuristics, cognitive biases, and tribalism, highlight the vulnerabilities that make societies susceptible to manipulation. Finally, the paper discusses pathways to unity through shared goals, historical examples of successful collaboration, and the necessity of ethical leadership and robust institutions. The findings underscore the urgent need for proactive measures to counteract polarization, emphasizing education, transparency, and collective action as essential tools for preserving democracy and fostering global unity in the face of existential threats such as climate change and technological disruption. |
| Date: | 2024–11–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wzm5d_v1 |
| By: | Ramirez-Ruiz, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Interactions between the policy and academic communities can play an important role in political decisionmaking. Still, the fact that much of the policymaking process happens behind closed doors obscures our understanding of the relationships between political decisionmakers with academic researchers. This paper analyzes online behavioral data from 3, 670 lawmakers in 12 countries and integrates them to a novel database of 410K academic researchers on Twitter. The findings suggest that lawmakers do follow, yet rarely visibly engage with researchers online. Lawmakers from conservative and radical right parties follow and engage less with researchers online than their colleagues from other parties. While the base engagement is relatively low across legislatures, it can increase when expertise gains salience. During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, marked by policy uncertainty involving a novel and technically complex policy issue, lawmakers' overall inclination to follow and engage with scholars increased, most prominently targeting researchers from the medical sciences. These findings have implications for our understanding of politicians’ strategic engagement with science production. |
| Date: | 2025–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:wqbe4_v1 |
| By: | Marc Morgan; Pedro Souza |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a novel assessment of the Kuznets curve for an underdeveloped country engaging in rapid late development. We mobilize new long-run data for Brazil, combining surveys, administrative records, and national accounts statistics, to compute macro-consistent income shares and other distributional indicators since the 1920s. Our estimates show a more nuanced picture for the traditional Kuznets hypothesis than what the existing literature has suggested. |
| Keywords: | Distribution, Development, Political economy, Kuznets, Brazil |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-2 |
| By: | Bazzi, Samuel; Hilmy, Masyhur; Marx, Benjamin; Mahvish Ifrah Shaukat; Stegmann, Andreas |
| Abstract: | In many countries, local governments struggle with inefficiency and corruption, often perpetuated by entrenched elites. This paper explores how leadership changes affect bureaucratic performance at the local level by combining detailed personnel surveys with a regression discontinuity design in a large sample of Indonesian villages. The findings show that turnovers in village elections revitalize local bureaucracies, disrupt nepotistic networks, and improve local government performance. Bureaucrats under new leadership become more engaged, receive higher pay, and are less likely to be tied to past or present village officials, resulting in a more responsive bureaucracy that interacts more frequently with citizens and better understands their needs. This leads to higher levels of public service provision, measured in both administrative data and surveys conducted with citizens. Together, these findings suggest that leadership changes can mitigate elite capture and improve governance at the grassroots level. |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10920 |
| By: | DiGiuseppe, Matthew (Leiden University); Garriga, Ana Carolina (University of Essex); Kern, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Why do citizens support central bank independence (CBI)? Despite important research on economic and political reasons to grant independence to central banks, we know little about what the public thinks about CBI. This is important given citizens' potential role in constraining politicians' ability to alter CBI. We hypothesize that support for CBI is influenced by citizens' limited understanding of central bank governance and their beliefs about who will gain control over monetary policy if independence is reduced. Our expectations are confirmed by a preregistered survey experiment and a pre-post-election test in the U.S. Support for CBI increases when respondents learn that the President would gain more influence if independence was reduced. This support decreases when respondents expect a co-partisan to lead the executive branch. These findings shed light on the legitimacy basis of monetary institutions in politically polarized contexts and, from a policy perspective, indicate the limits of central bank communication. |
| Date: | 2025–02–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:trpgz_v1 |