|
on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Chakraborty, Adrij; Singhal, Karan |
| Abstract: | The 1947 Partition of British India triggered the largest forced migration of the twentieth century, redistributing millions of refugees across newly independent India. We study whether this demographic shock left a lasting imprint on democratic politics. Combining district-level refugee shares from the 1951 Census with constituency-level electoral data covering Indian state assembly elections between 1960 and 2007, we estimate the long-run effects of refugee settlement on electoral competition. We find that constituencies exposed to larger refugee inflows exhibit higher voter turnout, narrower victory margins, and a lower likelihood of electing candidates from national parties. Instead, refugee settlement shifted electoral support toward regional parties and contributed to the long-run denationalization of political competition. Our findings show that large demographic shocks can leave enduring political legacies, reshaping patterns of political representation and party competition long after displacement itself has ended. |
| Keywords: | Partition of India, forced migration, electoral competition, political persistence |
| JEL: | D72 J15 N35 N45 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1795 |
| By: | Bombardini, Matilde; Trebbi, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a holistic view of the channels of political influence of large corporations in modern democracies, focusing not only on well-studied instruments, such as campaign contributions and lobbying, but also on more opaque ones, such as charitable giving, political connections, dark money, public advocacy, and employee mobilization. Our quantitative perspective draws on recent work on US politics, including congressional voting, special interest politics, corporate political connections, grassroots, and philanthropic activities. In the process, the chapter offers also a discussion of recent methodological innovations around money in politics. We conclude with some considerations on corporate political disclosure. |
| Keywords: | Lobbying |
| JEL: | P0 D72 D73 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20129 |
| By: | de Albuquerque, Amanda; Finan, Frederico; Jha, Anubhav; Karpuska, Laura; Trebbi, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We present a methodology for decoupling taste-based versus statistical discrimination in political behavior. We combine a flexible empirical model of voting, featuring vertical and horizontal candidate differentiation in gender, ability, and policy positions, with a large-scale micro-targeted electoral experiment aimed at increasing female candidate vote shares. Our structural econometric approach allows to separately identify preference parameters driving taste-based discrimination and beliefs parameters driving statistical discrimination through expectations about ability and policy positions of female politicians. Our application to Brazilian municipal elections uncovers substantial levels of taste-based and statistical discrimination. Counterfactual political campaigns show promise in reducing both. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination; Elections; Identity; Gender; Ability; Policy; Brazil |
| JEL: | D72 P0 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20291 |
| By: | Hatte, Sophie; Loper, Jordan; Taylor, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Can social media help promote female access to political positions? Using data from 8, 814 parliamentary races across 17 sub-Saharan African countries, we explore this question in a context of significant political underrepresentation of women and rising Facebook penetration over the past decade. We leverage the staggered introduction of Facebook's Free Basics--i.e., free access to Facebook through partner mobile operators--across constituencies and time, documenting the success of this connectivity shock and its subsequent effect on female political representation. We find that the availability of Facebook's Free Basics significantly increases the election of female candidates, but only after one electoral cycle. This effect is driven by female candidates endorsed by established political parties and running for the first time. Uncovering the underlying mechanisms, we document a large, positive relationship between social media use and egalitarian gender norms, particularly regarding women in politics. Examining users' online network structures, we show that this association is driven by exposure to diverse and progressive content, and that such online connections are key to Free Basics' electoral impact. Finally, we find that Free Basics' effect is contingent on the presence of fair elections but is amplified where traditional press freedom is limited. |
| Keywords: | Social media; Gender norms; Elections; Candidate selection |
| JEL: | D72 J16 L86 L96 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20116 |
| By: | Brown, Jacob; Cantoni, Enrico; Enos, Ryan; Pons, Vincent; Sartre, Emilie |
| Abstract: | Using two datasets tracking the location and party affiliation of every U.S. voter between 2008 and 2020 in states recording partisan registration, we find that geographic segregation between Democrats and Republicans has increased year over year at all geographic levels, from Congressional Districts to Census Blocks. Areas trending Democratic have a starkly different demographic profile than those trending Republican, so the confluence of demographics, partisanship, and geography is growing. We decompose the increase in geographic partisan segregation into different sources and show that it has not been driven primarily by residential mobility but rather by generational turnover, as new voters entering the electorate cause some places to become more homogeneously Democratic, and by party switching, as existing voters leaving the Democratic party cause other places to become more Republican. The groups that most contribute to the rise in partisan segregation are young people, women, and non-white voters in Democratic-trending areas; and white and older voters in Republican-trending areas. |
| Keywords: | Residential segregation; Partisanship; Internal migration; Political polarization |
| JEL: | D72 R23 J11 P00 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19927 |
| By: | Braun, Sebastian; Öztürk, Timur |
| Abstract: | How do social cleavages shape party-system fragmentation, and how does this relationship change when parties organize across instead of along these cleavages? We examine the Catho-lic-Protestant divide in Germany from Weimar to the postwar period, exploiting the confes-sional mosaic of Baden and Württemberg. Using data from over 3, 000 parishes, we show that fragmentation in Weimar Germany followed a hump-shaped relationship with the local Catho-lic share, peaking in religiously mixed parishes where a cohesive Catholic bloc coexisted with a fragmented Protestant center-right. During the Great Depression, the Nazi Party consolidated the fragmented Protestant vote. After 1945, the cross-confessional CDU weakened the link between religious cleavages and fragmentation. Yet Catholic areas remained less susceptible to far-right voting, a persistence that survey evidence attributes to church influence rather than policy preferences. Overall, our findings show that the effect of social cleavages on political fragmentation hinges on how parties and organizations mobilize them. |
| Keywords: | Cleavage Politics, Party Fragmentation, Religion, Far-Right Voting, Historical Political Economy, Germany |
| JEL: | N14 D72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:341992 |
| By: | Ash, Elliott; Galletta, Sergio; Opocher, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | This study explores the potential for AI-powered chatbots to strengthen democracy by boosting political knowledge and engagement through better access to political information. We develop and evaluate BallotBot, an AI chatbot with access to official voter guide information from the November 2024 referendums in California. In a pre-registered three-wave survey experiment in the weeks around election day, participants (California voters) were randomly assigned to use either BallotBot or a traditional digital voter guide to answer questions about ballot initiatives. BallotBot access improved participants’ ability to answer in-depth questions, reduced overconfidence, lowered the perceived cost of acquiring information for less-informed participants, and fostered greater engagement with political information. However, it had no clear effect on self-reported turnout or the direction of voting. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; Democracy; Overconfidence |
| JEL: | D72 D83 L82 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20070 |
| By: | Estruch-Garcia, Cèlia; Solé-Ollé, Albert; Tassinari, Filippo; Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the local electoral effects of Barcelona's Superblocks pedestrianization policy, an initiative aimed at reducing car traffic and air pollution while enhancing urban livability. Using census tract-level data from local elections, we analyze its impact on support for the incumbent mayor. We find a significant increase in votes in tracts directly affected by the policy, which also extends to neighboring areas. Traffic was not displaced to adjacent tracts, which also saw reduced pollution, suggesting that concerns about congestion did not materialize and may explain the absence of electoral backlash. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effects are stronger in tracts with higher levels of education and that they are not affected by gentrification or mobility disruptions. Overall, our results highlight that voters respond to localized improvements in traffic, air quality, and public spaces, offering insights into the political economy of urban climate policies and public support for green interventions. |
| Keywords: | Cities; Elections; Green Policies |
| JEL: | D72 Q58 R53 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19925 |
| By: | Anderson, Siwan; Du Plessis, Sophia; Parsa, Sahar; Robinson, James A. |
| Abstract: | Research on female political representation has tended to overlook the traditional role of women as leaders across many societies. Our study aims to address this gap by investigating the enduring influence of historical female political leadership on contemporary formal political representation in Africa. We test for this persistence by compiling two original datasets: one detailing female political leadership in precolonial societies and another on current female representation in local elections. Our findings indicate that ethnic groups historically allowing women in leadership roles in politics do tend to have a higher proportion of elected female representatives in today's formal local political institutions. We also observe that institutional, rather than economic, factors significantly shape the traditional political influence of women. Moreover, in accordance with historical accounts, we uncover evidence of a reversal of female political power due to institutional changes enforced by colonial powers. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20235 |
| By: | Biasi, Barbara; Sandholtz, Wayne |
| Abstract: | Public service reforms often provoke political backlash. Can they also yield political benefits for the politicians who champion them? We study a Wisconsin law that weakened teachers’ unions and liberalized pay, prompting mass protests. Exploiting its staggered implementation across school districts, we find that the reform cut union revenues, raised student test scores, and increased pay for some teachers. Exposure to the law increased the incumbent governor’s vote share by about 20% of his margin of victory and reduced campaign contributions to his opponent. Gains were larger in districts with stronger unions ex ante and in those where more voters benefited from the reform. Our findings highlight how even politically risky reforms can generate electoral benefits under the right circumstances. |
| JEL: | I20 P46 P11 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20174 |
| By: | Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa; Eberhardt, Markus |
| Abstract: | Previous research has established a link between democratic governance and sustainable economic growth. Yet, over the past decade, we have witnessed a global decline of democratic institutions across a wide range of political contexts. How has this erosion of democracy affected countries’ economic trajectories over the 1999-2023 period? This paper investigates the economic consequences of democratic breakdowns, focusing on whether — and how — losing democracy comes with an economic cost. Using a heterogeneous difference-in-differences estimator and drawing on the hierarchical structure of the Varieties of Democracy dataset, we examine both high-level democracy definitions and their institutional building blocks. Our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we estimate the average treatment effect of regime collapse and find robust evidence of an autocratic loss: on average, countries that transition from democracy to autocracy experience a decline in income per capita of around 1.5%, with losses reaching 4-6% two decades after collapse. This effect is driven more strongly by the breakdown of electoral democracy than liberal democracy. Second, we disaggregate democracy into its low-level institutional components to identify the source of this loss. We find that the negative economic effects are primarily driven by the erosion of free and fair elections — while other components, such as freedom of expression or judicial constraints on the executive, play a much smaller role. Third, we explore transmission channels that explain how democratic collapse translates into economic decline. We find suggestive evidence that cuts to investment in social support and public goods — such as education — are among the key mechanisms through which autocratic loss materializes, with some effects emerging more immediately and others likely to deepen over time. Our findings underscore the long-term risks posed by democratic erosion and highlight the central role of electoral integrity in safeguarding economic development. |
| Keywords: | Democracy |
| JEL: | O10 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20146 |
| By: | Fouka, Vasiliki; Tabellini, Marco |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews the literature on the relationship between culture and political preferences. We distinguish conceptually between the direct cultural transmission of political ideology and the transmission of more primitive preferences and beliefs that influence preferences over policies, parties, and forms of government. While there is substantial evidence that political preferences persist across generations and within communities, the literature often does not specify which primitive values and beliefs drive this persistence. A growing body of work points to a multifaceted mapping from underlying preferences and beliefs over the material world and social relations to political ideology. In this chapter, we summarize these studies, organize their findings in a coherent framework, and suggest possible directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | beliefs |
| JEL: | D72 P0 N3 Z1 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20194 |
| By: | Persico, Nicola; Ravina, Enrichetta |
| Abstract: | We examine how the political polarization of individual investors, particularly regarding Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues, is reflected in institutional investor proxy voting and in corporate decision-making. We develop a theoretical model with two types of investors: those who value ESG factors (activists) and those who do not (skeptics). We find that large funds, seeking to attract investors of all ideologies, tend to adopt moderate stances on ESG, which they can impose on corporations, while small funds cater to investors’ polarized positions. We then explore counterfactual settings where individual investors vote directly or delegate their vote to individuals and organizations of their choice (political entrepreneurs), like in a representative democracy, and show that more-extreme corporate ESG policies are likely to be implemented in these cases, reflecting the underlying polarization among investors. In such settings, self-confirming multiple equilibria can arise since share ownership is endogenous to the firm’s ESG stance. Additionally, we explore shareholder abstention and the role of investors as citizens. |
| Keywords: | ESG |
| JEL: | D72 G23 G30 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20153 |
| By: | Bouton, Laurent; Llorente-Saguer, Aniol; Macé, Antonin; Xefteris, Dimitrios |
| Abstract: | We study voting when voters have different information quality. In such environments, voting rules with richer ballot spaces can help voters better aggregate information by endogenously allocating more decision power to better-informed members. Using laboratory experiments, we compare two polar examples of voting rules in terms of ballot richness: majority voting (MV) and continuous voting (CV). Our results show that CV outperforms MV on average, although the difference is smaller than predicted, and that CV has more support than MV in treatments where it is expected to perform better. We also find that voters with intermediate information overestimate the importance of their votes under CV. |
| JEL: | P00 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20173 |
| By: | Kempf, Elisabeth; Luo, Mancy; Tsoutsoura, Margarita |
| Abstract: | We examine how the political ideology of corporate leaders shapes cross-border firm networks. Exploiting changes in ideological alignment between U.S. firm CEOs and foreign governments around close foreign elections, we show that U.S. firms are more likely to terminate trade relationships with countries led by governments whose ideology becomes more distant from that of their CEOs. The impact is concentrated among CEOs holding strong political views, and is particularly pronounced for shorter trade relationships, suggesting ideological alignment is more relevant in more flexible and substitutable connections. Our findings highlight the role of ideology in shaping the formation and persistence of international firm networks. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20183 |
| By: | Anderson, Simon; Ciliberto, Federico; Leyden, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | We study the nature and determinants of dialogue between political candidates in television advertising. We characterize dialogue as both candidates advertising on the same campaign theme (e.g., “Economic Policy†). We model candidates’ propensity to engage in dialogue and link race competitiveness with messaging overlap. We show that it is theoretically ambiguous whether more competitiveness increases dialogue. Using data on television advertising for U.S. House and Senate races from 2012 to 2020, we document rich heterogeneity in dialogue across races and within races over time. Candidates strategically avoid dialogue; we find that dialogue is lower than predicted by a “non-strategic†advertising benchmark. Finally, we investigate the determinants of dialogue, including race competitiveness, time until the election, and election type, separating the effects of these characteristics on selection into advertising and messaging similarity. We find that dialogue increases with competitiveness, though this effect is dominated by its impact on selection into advertising. |
| JEL: | D72 D83 L15 M37 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20301 |
| By: | Gonzalez, Felipe; Prem, Mounu |
| Abstract: | Despite economic crises, incumbents often retain electoral support. We study Chile’s 1970-1973 infant nutrition program under Salvador Allende’s left-wing government and attribute this electoral resilience to the political returns of transfers during crises. The program provided milk to preschoolers, reducing infant mortality and bolstering electoral support despite hyperinflation and economic hardship. Using administrative data, surveys, and variation in crisis severity, we show transfers had greater political returns in areas most affected by the crisis. Survey evidence suggests voters swayed by transfers did not blame the government for the crisis. Our findings highlight how transfers and crisis perceptions sustain electoral popularity. |
| JEL: | H51 N35 N46 P35 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20059 |
| By: | Le Yaouanq, Yves; Schwardmann, Peter; van der Weele, Joël |
| Abstract: | We present a self- and social-signaling model formalizing findings in political psychology that moral and political judgments stem primarily from intuition and emotion, while reasoning serves to rationalize these intuitions to maintain an image of impartiality. In social interactions, agents’ rationalizations are strategic complements: others’ rationalizations weaken their ability to judge critically and make their actions less revealing of (inconvenient) truths. When agents are naive about their own rationalizations, our model predicts ideological and affective polarization, with each side assigning inappropriate motives to the other. Cross-partisan exchanges of narratives reduce polarization but are avoided by the agents. In within-group exchanges agents favor skilled speakers, whose narratives worsen polarization. Our model explains partisan disagreements over policy consequences, aligns with empirical polarization trends, and offers insights into efforts to disrupt echo chambers. |
| JEL: | D72 D83 D91 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20259 |
| By: | Razin, Assaf |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the two-way relationship between international migration and political regime change, emphasizing the potential for a feedback loop: political shifts influence migration patterns, and migration can, in turn, affect political developments. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach and a dataset combining migration flows, regime quality indicators (CHRI), and measures of economic integration such as EU membership, the study identifies three key findings. First, substantial immigration into politically fragile democracies can further weaken their institutions. Second, democratic decline tends to increase emigration, undermining a country's ability to a democratic institutional recovery. Third, international economic integration, particularly in our study, through EU accession — shapes how emigration responds to political change. |
| JEL: | F2 F5 F60 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20200 |
| By: | Kuang, Pei; Weber, Michael; Xie, Shihan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of political polarization on public trust in the Fed and its influence on macroeconomic expectations. Using a large-scale survey experiment which we fielded on President Trump's 2025 inauguration day, we study how households form beliefs about the Fed regarding its political leaning, independence, and trustworthiness. Political alignment significantly shapes perceptions: individuals who view the Fed as politically aligned report higher independence of and trust in the Fed, leading to lower inflation expectations and uncertainty. Strategic communication on institutional structure and policy objectives effectively mitigates perception biases, reinforcing the Fed’s credibility and enhancing its policy effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Partisan; Trust; Expectations |
| JEL: | D83 D84 D72 E7 E31 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19952 |
| By: | Estefania Flores, Julia; Furceri, Davide; Ostry, Jonathan D.; Steinberg, Federico |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the macroeconomic and political determinants of non-tariff barriers to international trade based on a new index of such restrictions with broad country and time coverage. We employ a structured empirical approach that integrates multiple methodologies to identify which factors are the most robust correlates of trade reform (defined as meaningful changes in non-tariff barriers). We find that structural factors, both macroeconomic (especially inflation and export concentration) and political (especially democracy, corruption, political polarization and populism) emerge as robust correlates of changes in trade policy. Among these, political and institutional variables explain the largest share of nontariff barrier policy variation. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Non-tariff barriers; Structural reforms; Political economy |
| JEL: | D72 F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20248 |
| By: | Docquier, Frédéric; Rapoport, Hillel |
| Abstract: | We investigate the bidirectional relationship between immigration and right-wing populism, which we characterize as a self-reinforcing dynamic process where anti-immigrant rhetoric and populist policies lead to a deterioration in the average education and skill level of immigrants. The deterioration in the ratio of high-skill to low-skill immigrants in turn fuels populist support and anti-immigration attitudes, creating what we call “the vicious circle of xenophobia†. We review some historical and contemporary studies that are suggestive of such vicious circle. In particular, recent cross-country evidence shows that low-skill immigration tends to exacerbate populism, while high-skill immigration tends to mitigate it. Conversely, populist policies and xenophobic attitudes have a strong repulsive effect on highly-skilled immigrants and result in adverse immigrant selection. We use the empirical results from those studies to inform a theoretical model of joint determination of immigrants’ skill-ratio and right-wing populism levels. The model displays multiple equilibria, with the inferior equilibrium – corresponding to our vicious circle - characterised by high levels of right-wing populism and a high proportion of low-skill workers among immigrants. In this framework, structural trends such as internet penetration, economic erosion of the middle class, demographic pressure from poor countries as well as adverse cyclical shocks make the good, efficient equilibrium less likely and the inferior equilibrium of explosive populism and deteriorated immigrants’ skill-ratio more likely. |
| Keywords: | Immigration |
| JEL: | D72 F22 F52 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20028 |
| By: | Kempf, Elisabeth; Tsoutsoura, Margarita |
| Abstract: | We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and available data sources to infer individuals' partisan leanings. We then describe and discuss the empirical evidence. Our review suggests an economically large and often growing partisan gap in the financial decisions of households, corporate executives, and financial intermediaries. Partisan alignment between individuals explains team and financial relationship formation, with initial evidence suggesting that high levels of partisan homogeneity may be associated with economic costs. We conclude by proposing several promising directions for future research. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20128 |
| By: | Algan, Yann; Dalvit, Nicolo; Do, Quoc-Anh; Le Chapelain, Alexis; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | We examine how social interactions and friendships shape students' political opinions in a natural experiment at Sciences Po, a leading French university specializing in social and political sciences. The quasi-random assignment of students into short-term integration groups before their academic curriculum reduces political opinion gaps and fosters friendship formation. Using same-group membership as an instrumental variable for friendship, we find that after 6 months friendship reduces opinion differences by 50% of the mean opinion gap. Our evidence supports a homophily-enforced mechanism: friendships form among initially politically similar students, leading them to join political associations together, reinforcing their similarity. However, friendship does not significantly influence politically dissimilar pairs. Instead, it reduces opinion divergence without enforcing ideological convergence. |
| Keywords: | Political opinion |
| JEL: | C93 D72 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20075 |
| By: | Federico Boffa (Free University of Bozen, IRCRES/CNR, Collegio Carlo Alberto); Tommaso Reggiani (Cardiff University, Masaryk University, IZA); Matteo Rizzolli (LUMSA University, Rome, Italy); Federico Trombetta (DISEIS, Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Proxy voting on behalf of children (also known as Demeny voting) has been proposed as a measure to contrast demographic decline in low-fertility countries. We study the effects of Demeny voting on fertility and budget allocation in the context of a probabilistic voting model. Citizens can vote to allocate the budget between either the production of a public good that results in immediate benefits for the present generation, or investment in a future-oriented public good that benefits the productivity of newborn children and society as a whole over time. Fertility is endogenous and disagreements arise between parents and non-parents over public spending. We show that proxy voting, by acting as a commitment device towards pro-children policies, increases fertility, future-oriented spending, such as early childhood investment and universal child care, and, under some conditions, increases long-term welfare for non-parents, thereby generating a Pareto improvement. |
| Keywords: | Demeny voting; proxy voting; fertility; democracy |
| JEL: | H31 H52 H63 I25 J13 J18 K16 D72 Q01 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsa:wphurf:wphurf02 |
| By: | Klaus M. Frahm; Dima L. Shepelyansky |
| Abstract: | We introduce a thermodynamic theory of voting and show that it provides a good description of distribution of party votes in EU elections. The theory traces parallels between system energies of coupled nonlinear oscillators and party vote fractions. Such a classical system evolution is characterized by the conservation of total energy and probability norm that leads to the Rayleigh-Jeans (RJ) thermalization and condensation at low energy states. A similar thermalization also describes the wealth inequality in society. This feature belongs to the phenomena of constraint driven condensation known in statistical mechanics. We show that the RJ theory well depicts the Lorenz and Pareto curves obtained from the EU vote results. The theory also recovers the dispersion of votes between candidates of first round presidential elections in France. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.15119 |
| By: | Platt, Lucinda; Rasul, Imran; Tiwari, Pratyush |
| Abstract: | How does the majority population view the societal contributions, economic outcomes and opportunities available to specific ethnic minority groups, root causes of ethnic disadvantage, and policy solutions to address them? We answer these questions in the UK context, a multi-ethnic society where some minorities outperform the majority in economic outcomes, while others underperform. We use an online survey fielded to 3200 White British individuals, into which we embed a survey experiment that presents respondents with narratives about the economic success or disadvantage of specific minority groups. The experiment was purposefully implemented in the run up to the 2024 UK General Election, that saw the rise of populist anti-immigration parties. We find that even in such charged times, light-touch narratives can correct majority misperceptions of the economic outcomes of specific minorities, and shift views on policies to address ethnic inequalities. Views on the opportunities available to minorities and root causes of disadvantage, such as luck or effort, are harder to shift irrespective of the minority outgroup. By considering perceptions towards their ingroup, we document that narratives about the economic success of minorities can shift majority perceptions in ways consistent with zero sum thinking. Given strong political differences in perceptions of minorities, we examine heterogeneous responses to the narratives by political leaning. Narrative treatments can shift perceptions, including those of right-leaning individuals, with zero sum mindsets being independent of political leaning. We conclude by examining how perceptions across domains shape the reasoning behind support for policies targeted to specific minorities to address ethnic inequalities. |
| JEL: | D8 H1 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20106 |
| By: | Ouasbaa, Ghizlen; Solé-Ollé, Albert; Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of city council members with real estate back-grounds on housing supply in California between 1995 and 2019. Using candidate occupation data and a close-elections regression discontinuity design, we find that electing a developer increases approved housing units by 68% during their term, especially for multifamily projects. The effect operates primarily through discretionary zoning approvals and does not persist beyond the developer’s term, suggesting limited impact on broader regulatory reform. These findings offer new causal evidence on how policymakers’ professional backgrounds shape land-use deci-sions and contribute to a long-standing debate on the political origins of housing supply constraints. |
| JEL: | P00 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20151 |
| By: | Sonin, Konstantin |
| Abstract: | Why did the Soviet Union organize regular elections, national and local, with one candidate and reported 99.9% support with 99.9% turnout? Were the Soviet citizens so stupid that they did not understand that they have no say in choosing their government? The Reverse Cargo Cult metaphor explains why dictators tell their citizens lies that citizens know to be lies: a verifiable lie told by a politician changes citizens' perceptions of politicians and reduces their willingness to replace them. The model explains the mechanics of authoritarian propaganda that puts much emphasis on persuading citizens how bad foreign politicians are. |
| JEL: | P00 D85 L82 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20316 |
| By: | Bazzi, Samuel; Hilmy, Masyhur; Marx, Benjamin; Shaukat, Mahvish; Stegmann, Andreas |
| Abstract: | In many countries, local governments struggle with inefficiency and corruption, often perpetuated by entrenched elites. This paper explores how leadership changes affect local bureaucratic performance. Combining personnel and citizen surveys with a regression discontinuity design in a large sample of Indonesian villages, we show that turnovers in village elections revitalize local bureaucracies, disrupt nepotistic networks, and improve local government performance. Bureaucrats serving new leaders are more engaged and less likely to be tied to past or present village officials, resulting in a more responsive bureaucracy that interacts more with citizens and better understands their needs. This improves public service provision, measured in both administrative data and citizen surveys. Overall, our results show that leadership changes can mitigate elite capture and improve governance at the grassroots level. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19994 |
| By: | Ceccarelli, Marco; Ramelli, Stefano; Vasileva, Anna; Wagner, Alexander F. |
| Abstract: | Can changes in political context shift the weight individuals place on non-pecuniary versus pecuniary motives in financial decision-making? We examine this question using pre-registered surveys and incentivized investment decisions surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Following Trump’s victory, investors reduced average green investments due to worse financial expectations. However, investors who strongly disapproved of his climate policies increased their green allocations, emphasizing climate considerations over financial ones. These "contrarian" investors appear motivated to offset perceived policy shortcomings. Real-world ETF flows corroborate this pattern. The findings have implications for understanding and modeling values-based investment behavior. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral finance; Climate change; Expected returns; Investments; Political economy; Surveys; Sustainable finance |
| JEL: | D83 G11 G12 G41 G51 P18 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20123 |