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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Calafate, Vítor; Costa, Francisco J M (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance); Pessoa, João Paulo |
| Abstract: | Extreme weather events can undermine political representation by preventing vulnerable populations from voting. Using georeferenced polling-station records from eight Brazilian elections (2010–2024) matched to daily river discharge, we exploit within-polling-station variation to show that historically low river discharge on election day increases voter abstention in communities dependent on river transportation. The effects are larger in polling sections with higher illiteracy rates and married voters. These shocks also shift electoral outcomes by reducing the vote share of parties whose bases overlap with affected populations. Our findings show that climate change can systematically weaken the political voice of the populations most exposed to climate damages. |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ypgsf_v1 |
| By: | Olga Li (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin and Department of Finance, Ireland); Micheál L Collins (School of Social Policy, Social Work and Social Justice, University College Dublin, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Why do some citizens engage in political activities beyond elections – out of commitment to democratic values, or out of dissatisfaction with democratic performance? This paper explores how Europeans’ evaluations of democracy shape their non-electoral participation, drawing on data from the European Social Survey Round 10 (2022) and its special module on “Europeans’ understandings and evaluations of democracy.” Using multilevel models, the analysis tests two competing perspectives: (1) committed democrats, who hold strong democratic values and participate as a way of sustaining democratic life; and (2) dissatisfied democrats, or critical citizens, who turn to non-electoral activities as a response to discontent with democratic performance. The results show that lower evaluations of democracy are associated with a greater likelihood of engaging in non-electoral activities, lending support to the dissatisfied democrats perspective. By highlighting the role of subjective democratic evaluations in shaping political behaviour, this study adds nuance to existing scholarship on democracy and participation in Europe and underscores how unmet democratic expectations can mobilise citizens beyond the ballot box. |
| Keywords: | understanding democracy, political participation, Europe |
| JEL: | D72 Z18 |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202506 |
| By: | Cerqua, Augusto (Sapienza University of Rome); Nocito, Samuel (Sapienza University of Rome); Pinto, Gabriele (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | Local governments in advanced democracies have increasingly struggled to attract political candidates, weakening electoral competition and accountability at the municipal level. While several factors may contribute to this trend, politicians' salaries represent one of the few policy levers that can be directly adjusted by policymakers. We study a large-scale reform that substantially increased local politicians' pay, exploiting quasi-experimental variation in election timing across municipalities. We find that higher salaries increase political entry, particularly among first-time candidates. Importantly, effects are heterogeneous across local contexts: in less affluent municipalities and in areas with lower entry barriers, higher pay also raises female candidacies and their probability of election. In the poorest areas, the reform further alters the composition of local political elites, shifting recruitment toward candidates with different educational and occupational backgrounds. |
| Keywords: | local governments, politicians' wages, time-shifted control design |
| JEL: | D04 D72 J45 C13 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18527 |
| By: | Fontana, Nicola (Trinity College Dublin); Nannicini, Tommaso (European University Institute); Snyder, James (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We study whether the partisan affiliation of U.S. state governors affects the outcome of partisan judicial elections. Exploiting close gubernatorial races from 1946 to 2023, we find that electing a Democratic (Republican) governor significantly increases the subsequent vote share of Democratic (Republican) judicial candidates. This executive spillover effect arises despite the formal institutional independence of the judiciary and holds in contexts with similar levels of polarization and partisanship. Our findings show that, under partisan judicial elections, even narrow shifts in executive power can erode the separation of powers, as some voters adjust their judicial choices in response to the partisan control of the executive. This effect is stronger when executive and legislative powers are unified and when the judicial election occurs soon after the governor's race. |
| Keywords: | judicial elections, partisan alignment, regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | D72 D73 K40 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18533 |
| By: | Johan Fourie |
| Abstract: | Examines how political coalitions shape economic growth outcomes in South Africa, analysing the incentives and constraints facing key actors in the growth policy arena. |
| Keywords: | political economy, growth coalitions, South Africa, institutions |
| JEL: | O43 P16 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxs:wpaper:202604 |
| By: | Fernanda Sobrino (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Alejandro Diaz (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Adolfo de Unanue (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the 1983-1992 Satanic Panic as a natural experiment to identify the political effects of fear-based entertainment media. Using two independent proxies for panic exposure across 176 Designated Market Areas -- predetermined NBC affiliate delivery strength and geographic proximity to Satanic Ritual Abuse prosecution epicenters -- we find that both predict excess Republican presidential vote-share gains of approximately 0.5 to 1.2 percentage points in 1988, relative to the pre-panic trend. The two instruments have opposite demographic profiles, making single-confound explanations implausible. The case proximity effect fully reverts by 1992, consistent with credibility collapse after the McMartin acquittals and the FBI's 1992 debunking report; the NBC effect decays more slowly, consistent with the absence of a localized corrective in markets that received the panic through national television. The convergence of two instruments with distinct demographic profiles identifies fear-based entertainment media as a direct persuasion channel, operating independently of institutional religious infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | moral panic, media effects, entertainment television, electoral behavior, political persuasion, Republican vote, satanic panic, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | D72 L82 P16 Z12 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:32 |
| By: | Mattozzi, Andrea (University of Bologna); Nocito, Samuel (Sapienza University of Rome); Sobbrio, Francesco (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | We study how politicians respond to the fact-checking of their public statements. Our research design employs a difference-in-differences approach, complemented by a randomized field intervention conducted in collaboration with a leading fact-checking organization. We find that fact-checking discourages politicians from making factually incorrect statements, with effects lasting several weeks. At the same time, we show that fact-checking neither increases nor displaces correct statements. Politicians who are fact-checked tend to substitute incorrect statements with either no statements or unverifiable ones, suggesting that they may also respond by increasing the "ambiguity†of their language to avoid public scrutiny. |
| Keywords: | fact-checking, politicians, accountability, verifiability |
| JEL: | D72 D78 D8 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18534 |
| By: | Olivia Martin; Amar Venugopal |
| Abstract: | Local government meetings are the most common formal channel through which residents speak directly with elected officials, contest policies, and shape local agendas. However, data constraints typically limit the empirical study of these meetings to agendas, single cities, or short time horizons. We collect and transcribe a massive new dataset of city council meetings from 115 California cities over the last decade, using advanced transcription and diarization techniques to analyze the speech content of the meetings themselves. We document two sets of descriptive findings: First, city council meetings are frequent, long, and vary modestly across towns and time in topical content. Second, public participants are substantially older, whiter, more male, more liberal, and more likely to own homes than the registered voter population, and public participation surges when topics related to land use and zoning are included in meeting agendas. Given this skew, we examine the main policy lever municipalities have to shift participation patterns: meeting access costs. Exploiting pandemic-era variation in remote access, we show that eliminating remote options reduces the number of speakers, but does not clearly change the composition of speakers. Collectively, these results provide the most comprehensive empirical portrait to date of who participates in local democracy, what draws them in, and how institutional design choices shape both the volume and composition of public input. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.21202 |
| By: | Andrew J. Peterson |
| Abstract: | Governments are increasingly interested in using AI to make administrative decisions cheaper, more scalable, and more consistent. But for probabilistic AI to be incorporated into public administration it must be embedded in a compliance layer that makes decisions reviewable, repeatable, and legally defensible. That layer can improve oversight by making departures from law easier to detect. But it can also create a stable approval boundary that political successors learn to navigate while preserving the appearance of lawful administration. We develop a formal model in which institutions choose the scale of automation, the degree of codification, and safeguards on iterative use. The model shows when these systems become vulnerable to strategic use from within government, why reforms that initially improve oversight can later increase that vulnerability, and why expansions in AI use may be difficult to unwind. Making AI usable can thus make procedures easier for future governments to learn and exploit. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.21103 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan's substantial hydrocarbon endowment-particularly in crude oil and natural gas-plays a central role in shaping both its economic structure and governance model. The hydrocarbon sector constitutes the backbone of the national economy, accounting for a dominant share of fiscal revenues, export earnings, and macroeconomic stability. However, consistent with the literature on rentier state dynamics and resource dependence, the concentration of hydrocarbon rents has contributed to the consolidation of a highly centralized political system. Control over these revenues has enabled ruling elites to accumulate and sustain economic and political power, thereby limiting political pluralism and reinforcing the persistence of dominant leadership. This article examines how hydrocarbon wealth functions not only as an economic asset but also as an instrument of political control. Drawing on fiscal and sectoral data for the period 2007-2025, it shows how oil and gas revenues are accumulated in the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), transferred to the state budget, and disproportionately allocated to defense, law enforcement, and judicial institutions, thereby expanding the state's coercive capacity. The analysis also highlights a structural shift from oil to gas production and Azerbaijan's growing role as a gas supplier to Europe. At the same time, it identifies a parallel increase in political repression, reflected in a sharp rise in the number of political prisoners since 2022. The findings suggest that Azerbaijan's increasing geopolitical and energy importance has reduced external pressure for democratic reforms. Overall, the article argues that hydrocarbon revenues play a central role in sustaining authoritarian governance by reinforcing coercive institutions and limiting accountability. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Oil and Gas Production, Hydrocarbons revenues, Energy, SOFAZ, SOCAR, Budget expenditures, Defense and security budget, Judiciary, law enforcement and prosecution budget, Gas Exports to Europe, Political Repression, Political Prisoners, EU |
| JEL: | P16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340056 |
| By: | Charles W. Calomiris; Matthew S. Jaremski |
| Abstract: | Financial crises remain a recurrent feature of modern economies despite evidence that many are predictable and preventable. This chapter discusses how financial instability often reflects a political equilibrium rather than purely technocratic shortcomings. Contrasting economic and political perspectives on regulation, the chapter emphasizes how policymakers shape financial rules in ways that favor politically-influential groups but result in financial vulnerability. Key mechanisms include restricted bank chartering, safety nets, credit subsidies, and sovereign borrowing. Political forces also shape crisis management. Delayed interventions, selective support, and constrained policy responses can deepen and prolong crises. Together, these dynamics help explain the persistent and foreseeable nature of financial instability across time, legal origins, political structures, and institutional contexts. Instead of seeing financial crises as arising from an unavoidable vulnerability to external shocks they are better seen as a mirror of the societies in which they occur, reflecting their political structures, vying constituencies, cultural preferences, and blind spots. |
| JEL: | E44 F34 G01 H12 N1 N2 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35101 |
| By: | Martyshev, Pavlo; Grigoriadis, Theocharis; Nivievskyi, Oleg; Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan |
| Abstract: | The weaponization of agricultural trade has once again emerged as critical in the study of modern geopolitics due to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Although Russia has used its wheat exports as a means of enhancing its geopolitical influence over countries in the Global South, evidence on the impact of such a policy is scarce. This paper assesses the impact of reliance on Russian and Ukrainian wheat imports on food security and political development in sub-Saharan African countries. The panel data for the analysis come from 35 African countries between 2005 and 2024. The Bartik-style shift-share instrumental variables (IV) model utilizes exogenous variables derived from the historical shares of wheat that African countries imported from Russia and Ukraine multiplied by the export contractions caused by geopolitical conflicts in 2014 (Crimea annexation) and 2022 (full-scale invasion of Ukraine). The dependence on Russian wheat has had a uniquely adverse impact upon the development of sub-Saharan Africa, whereas this has not been the case for the dependence on Ukrainian wheat. Prior to 2022, the dependence on Russian wheat had no significant impact upon the reduction of undernourishment in Africa, but had a significant impact on the rise of political instability. After 2022, though, the Russian wheat played a crucial role in the food insecurity within the region. While democratic indices remained unaffected by Russian wheat, other geopolitical factors such as U.S. development aid and Chinese development finance were not able to counter the negative effects of Russian wheat exports. Our findings identify an independent vector of autocratic influence enabled through Russian agricultural exports. For sustainable political development within sub-Saharan Africa, the diversification of staple food suppliers is urgently required. |
| Keywords: | development, food security, political stability, democracy, wheat, Russia, Africa |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:340110 |
| By: | Nicolaas van der Wath |
| Abstract: | Reviews South Africa's economic performance over thirty years of democracy through the lens of national accounts, tracing trends in growth, investment, consumption, and fiscal outcomes. |
| Keywords: | national accounts, South Africa, democracy, economic history, growth |
| JEL: | O47 O55 E01 |
| Date: | 2024–08–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxs:wpaper:202404 |