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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Chad Kendall |
| Abstract: | I study how political parties affect representation in the U.S. House. To do so, I account for party pressure on the votes of members in an otherwise standard spatial model that uses roll call voting patterns to identify member ideologies. I simultaneously estimate voter ideologies from survey responses, leveraging their responses on issues before Congress to bridge voters and members into the same ideological space. I find that, relative to a model without party pressure, member ideologies and those of their constituents are much more closely aligned. The results imply that, in terms of actual votes, parties drive a wedge between members and those they represent. I provide evidence that parties do so strategically, balancing the need for legislative wins and the electoral concerns of their members. |
| Keywords: | political representation, party discipline, party pressure |
| JEL: | P0 D72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12391 |
| By: | Giulia Rossello; Maria Antonietta Reatini; Gabriele Pinto; Giorgio Cattani |
| Abstract: | Air pollution is a major externality whose consequences extend beyond health and productivity. This paper shows that short-run pollution shocks also reduce democratic participation. We combine official, municipality-level election results from 32 national, European, regional, and municipal elections in Italy (2013-2022) with newly assembled daily measures of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 for all Italian municipalities. Our identification strategy exploits quasi-random election-day deviations in local pollution relative to recent conditions, and we corroborate the results using wind speed as an instrument for particulate matter. Higher pollution on election day substantially depresses turnout: a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 (roughly doubling typical exposure) lowers participation by 2-3 percentage points, corresponding to about one million fewer votes. The estimates are similar for PM10 and NO2, and when pollution exceeds WHO guideline thresholds. Using post-election survey data from the 2013, 2018, and 2022 national elections coupled with survey-date exposure, we find consistent individual-level declines in reported voting intentions, with larger effects among citizens who report higher political interest. These findings identify the political-economy cost of air pollution, which not only reduces turnout but distorts the democratic representation by altering who turns out, not just how many. Our results suggest that environmental regulation can strengthen the democratic process by improving political participation and representation, in addition to its health and welfare benefits. |
| Keywords: | Air Pollution, Environmental Effects, Political Participation, Turnout |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 D72 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2026/328 |
| By: | Golberstein, Ezra (University of Minnesota); Guth, Daniel (University of Rochester); Slusky, David (University of Kansas) |
| Abstract: | We study political shocks as potential birth outcomes stressors, specifically the unexpected result of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. We investigate this two-sided shock using an innovative data linkage: Colorado voter registrations and birth certificates, matched by sex, birth year, and name. Contrary to our hypotheses, we do not find an effect on birth outcomes. We do find some evidence that stress-related behaviors in pregnancy worsened for Democrats. This research adds new evidence on the effects of in-utero exposure to two-sided stressors, uses a novel data linkage, and expands the new economics area of politics as a determinant of health. |
| Keywords: | elections, birth weight, fetal origins, maternal stress |
| JEL: | D72 I14 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18386 |
| By: | Lucas Braga de Melo (Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Finland); Valdemar Pinho Neto (EPGE/FGV) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the economic returns to political connections in Brazilian local elections, focusing not only on traditional campaign donations but also on two novel channels: firms that provide goods or services to candidates during campaigns and firms’ owners affiliated with parties within a coalition running for mayor. Employing regression discontinuity and event study methods around close mayoral races, we find that politically connected firms substantially increase both their likelihood of securing procurement contracts and the value of those contracts, though without corresponding gains in employment or wages. This paper contributes to the literature on political connections by documenting the emergence of indirect political connections and public procurement allocation in a context of weak institutional constraints. |
| Keywords: | political connections, procurement, firms |
| JEL: | D72 H72 D73 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp175 |
| By: | Manik Dhar; Kunal Mittal; Clayton Thomas |
| Abstract: | Among two-candidate elections that treat the candidates symmetrically and never result in a tie, which voting rules are fair? A natural requirement is that each voter exerts an equal influence over the outcome, i.e., is equally likely to swing the election one way or the other. A voter's influence has been formalized in two canonical ways: the Shapley-Shubik (1954) index and the Banzhaf (1964) index. We consider both indices, and ask: Which electorate sizes admit a fair voting rule (under the respective index)? For an odd number $n$ of voters, simple majority rule is an example of a fair voting rule. However, when $n$ is even, fair voting rules can be challenging to identify, and a diverse literature has studied this problem under different notions of fairness. Our main results completely characterize which values of $n$ admit fair voting rules under the two canonical indices we consider. For the Shapley-Shubik index, a fair voting rule exists for $n>1$ if and only if $n$ is not a power of $2$. For the Banzhaf index, a fair voting rule exists for all $n$ except $2$, $4$, and $8$. Along the way, we show how the Shapley-Shubik and Banzhaf indices relate to the winning coalitions of the voting rule, and compare these indices to previously considered notions of fairness. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.13894 |
| By: | Thorsten Drautzburg; Igor Livshits; Mark L. J. Wright |
| Abstract: | In a canonical model of policy formation, campaign contributions, and electoral competition, we show that, despite donor polarization, candidates’ agendas converge. If purely office-motivated candidates move away from the centrist agenda, they increase their opponents’ contributions more than their own. An extension that introduces a “job ladder” for the candidates leads to candidates caring about absolute levels of campaign contributions and generates divergence of political agendas in equilibrium. We provide empirical evidence of campaign contributions affecting candidates’ chances of “promotion, ” and characterize key comparative statics of the extended model. In the model, caps on campaign contributions lower polarization in equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Polarization; Campaign Contributions; Agendas |
| JEL: | D72 H41 |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102846 |
| By: | Hans Gersbach |
| Abstract: | We provide a rationale for Co-Voting, a decision-making procedure that blends elements of direct and representative democracy to mitigate their main inefficiencies. A randomly selected group of citizens receives voting rights on specific issues, with their collective decision aggregated with parliament’s decision according to a pre-specified weight. Using a simple model, we show that Co-Voting acts as an insurance device against both uninformed decisions in direct democracy and decision biases in representative democracy. We further introduce Co-Del-Voting, which adds strategic delegation to parliament and strictly outperforms both systems. Finally, we outline possible extensions and a roadmap for implementation. |
| Keywords: | direct democracy, representative democracy, constitution, co-voting, biases, information asymmetry |
| JEL: | D02 D70 D72 D82 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12429 |
| By: | Picchio, Matteo (Marche Polytechnic University); Santolini, Raffaella (Marche Polytechnic University) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of mayoral gender in attracting public funding in Italian municipalities. We exploit a novel administrative dataset containing detailed information on all projects aimed at the digitalisation of local public administrations and funded under Italy's National Recovery and Resilience Plan between 2022 and 2024. Exogenous variation in the timing of municipal elections and switches from male to female mayors provides quasi-experimental identification within a staggered difference-in-differences framework. We find that female mayors attract significantly larger amounts of national public funding for the digitalisation of municipal administrative services. This effect is particularly strong when female leadership is combined with high levels of human, or supported by a high quality local bureaucrats, and a policy environment characterised by substantial funding opportunities. By contrast, the share of women in municipal councils and executives does not play a significant role. We also find that our main results are driven by small and territorially fragile municipalities. |
| Keywords: | public funding, female political leadership, local governments, difference-in-differences, event-study, causal inference |
| JEL: | D72 H72 H76 J16 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18399 |
| By: | Bjorn Brey; Edoardo Cefala; Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa |
| Abstract: | Gender equality and economic growth have historically tended to move together yet identifying causal effects has been difficult. This paper uses data on the support for female suffrage in Switzerland in order to explore the impact of technology adoption on gender norms. We argue that the early adoption of electricity was conducive to local economic development, which in turn led to more egalitarian views on gender. To identify causality, we exploit geographic differences in the potential to generate electricity from waterpower. Our results show that early electricity adoption (by the 1910s) had a lasting impact on municipality vote shares in support of female suffrage in the ground-breaking 1959 referendum. We complement this finding with Cantonal referendums on female voting rights and federal electoral results to show that higher support for female political participation is observed in the data since the 1920s. We then examine how technology may have shaped gender attitudes and find that increased educational investment explains part of the shift. Fertility appears to respond to changing gender norms and reinforce them, but is unlikely the key mechanism in the causal chain. |
| Keywords: | technological change, industrialization, women’s rights, suffrage |
| JEL: | J16 N33 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12513 |
| By: | Fasolin, Guilherme Natan; Valentim, António |
| Abstract: | Does climate change affect who runs for office, and how? As extreme weather events intensify, they create social and economic challenges that likely impact political candidacy. We build on existing research on mass political participation and the political economy of candidate entry and test how extreme weather events affect candidate pools. Using a novel dataset of flooding events and mayoral candidates in Brazil (2000-2020), we employ a difference-in-differences design and find that floods reduce the education level of mayoral candidates. Using data on federal transfers, corruption audits, and surveys, we show the effects on education can be driven by rent-seeking and outside options. By shedding light on the effects of climate change on candidate selection, this study highlights how climate change can paradoxically increase the representation of underrepresented groups in politics. |
| Date: | 2026–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fp93g_v1 |
| By: | Adam, Antonis; Tsarsitalidou, Sofia |
| Abstract: | We argue that when terms‐of‐trade (ToT) shocks reduce resource rents, autocrats lose the fiscal capacity to sustain loyalty through patronage and increasingly rely on electoral manipulation as a survival strategy. We present a simple model in which rents finance patronage in normal times, while adverse shocks reduce the effectiveness of loyalty‐buying and induce substitution toward electoral manipulation. We test these implications using a panel of 114 autocracies from 1980 to 2021. Shocks are defined as ToT declines larger than 10%, and their impact is estimated on V‐Dem's Clean Elections Index using a difference‐in‐differences design with country and year fixed effects. Results show that negative trade shocks are associated with worse electoral conditions, especially in resource‐rich regimes, consistent with a shift from patronage to manipulation. These findings highlight how volatility in global markets can shape electoral strategies and authoritarian control. |
| Keywords: | autocracy; resource shocks; autocratic elections; electoral fraud |
| JEL: | D72 D73 O13 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137469 |
| By: | Yuki Uchida (Faculty of Economics, Seikei University); Tetsuo Ono (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the limitations of political equilibrium in fiscal policy when shortsighted governments represent only the middle-aged and older adult generations, in contrast to a Ramsey planner who values them as well as the young and future generations. Using a three-period overlapping generations model calibrated to Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom, we analyze the Golden Rule of Public Finance (GR), which permits deficit financing solely for public investment. We find that: (i) reduced GR compliance shifts fiscal burdens from the middle-aged to the older adult, young, and future generations; (ii) compliance depends on the elasticity of public capital, preferences for public goods, and GDP growth; and (iii) non-compliance drives political equilibrium away from the Ramsey allocation. Extending voting rights to the young is a more effective mechanism for mitigating inefficiency and enhancing fiscal rule compliance than Demeny voting, which allocates additional votes to the middle-aged based on the number of their children. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Rule; Golden Rule of Public Finance; Probabilistic Voting; Overlapping Generations; Political Distortions |
| JEL: | D70 E62 H63 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2501r |
| By: | Christian Düben; Roland Hodler; Paul A. Raschky |
| Abstract: | Hodler and Raschky (2014) provide evidence for regional favoritism by documenting that subnational regions have more intense nighttime lights when they are the birth region of the country's current political leader than at other times. In this paper, we test the robustness of their findings using new data on nighttime light emissions and the birthplaces of political leaders, resulting in a larger sample with many more countries and years. We confirm that leader birth regions have more intense nighttime lights and that this effect is larger in countries with high ethnic fractionalization, undemocratic institutions, and low levels of education. |
| Keywords: | regional favoritism, nighttime light emissions, political leaders |
| JEL: | D72 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12506 |
| By: | Brey, Björn (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Cefalá, Edoardo (Dept. of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); García-Peñalosa, Cecilia (The National Centre for Scientific Research, Aix Marseille School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Gender equality and economic growth have historically tended to move together yet identifying causal effects has been difficult. This paper uses data on the support for female suffrage in Switzerland in order to explore the impact of technology adoption on gender norms. We argue that the early adoption of electricity was conducive to local economic development, which in turn led to more egalitarian views on gender. To identify causality, we exploit geographic differences in the potential to generate electricity from waterpower. Our results show that early electricity adoption (by the 1910s) had a lasting impact on municipality vote shares in support of female suffrage in the groundbreaking 1959 referendum. We complement this finding with Cantonal referendums on female voting rights and federal electoral results to show that higher support for female political participation is observed in the data since the 1920s. We then examine how technology may have shaped gender attitudes and find that increased educational investment explains part of the shift. Fertility appears to respond to changing gender norms and reinforce them, but is unlikely the keymechanism in the causal chain. |
| Keywords: | Technological change; industrialization; womens rights |
| JEL: | J16 N33 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_003 |
| By: | Nora Aboushady (Cairo University); Georges Harb (Lebanese American University); Chahir Zaki (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of aid for trade (AfT) targeted at trade policies on the participation of recipient countries in global value chains (GVCs), and how this impact varies with their prevailing political regimes. In democratic countries, the need for the authorities to account for the interests of various stakeholders (e.g., lobbies, trade unions) can compromise the allocation, use, and effectiveness of AfT. In contrast, less democratic regimes are typically more insulated from political pressures, which may lead to more effective outcomes of aid. At the same time, integration into some complex GVCs requires efficient and democratic institutions, to which these products are sensitive. Employing a sample of 110 countries and data covering 2002-2018, we control for standard determinants of GVC participation, while examining the effect of AfT and the moderating role of the political regime in place. Our estimation addresses the endogeneity of aid through an appropriate instrumentation strategy. Our results suggest that the effect of AfT is mostly positive in autocratic regimes, indicating more effective trade policy reforms. When we account for regional disparities, we find evidence that AfT for trade policy is also impactful in some democratic regimes. This might suggest that the efficacy of AfT is not strictly regime-dependent, but hinges on the government’s commitment to carry out significant reforms leading to greater participation in the global economy. |
| Date: | 2025–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1806 |
| By: | Marcela Mello; Jo\~ao Garcia |
| Abstract: | A growing literature documents how religious institutions shape behavior through social influence, but less is known about what happens when religious movements gain political power and use the tools of government to advance their agenda. We use a regression discontinuity design on close mayoral elections in Brazil to show that mayors from parties institutionally tied to Pentecostal denominations increase teenage fertility 3 per 1, 000 higher (a 40% increase). This effect appears for cohorts exposed to middle school during the administration. Consistent with a school-based mechanism, we find that the likelihood that municipal schools offer sexual education programs falls by 12.5 percentage points, with no changes in state schools outside mayoral control. We also find elevated STD rates, and higher middle school dropout rates, while slightly older cohorts show no effects. Results are not explained by changes in contraceptive availability in public clinics, pointing to sexual education as the primary mechanism. We also find no effects from other right-wing parties, indicating the importance of institutional links to Pentecostal parties. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.19388 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad; Askerov, Ali |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the political economy of Azerbaijan-Russia relations during the deterioration of bilateral political relations in 2024-2025. It argues that the 2024-2025 conflict exposed the fragility of bilateral political relations and demonstrated how political tensions increasingly spill over into economic, societal, and cultural domains. Despite growing political tensions, Russia has continued, until recently, to serve as the principal anchor of integration for Azerbaijan's non-oil economy. An examination of macroeconomic indicators for 2017-2024 shows that the Russian Federation remains the largest destination for Azerbaijan's non-oil exports, its leading import partner, the primary source of formal remittance inflows from Azerbaijani labor migrants, and the largest source of inbound tourism. In this context, the article assesses the extent to which escalating political frictions since late 2024 have begun to affect economic relations, focusing on foreign trade, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), and tourism. It further evaluates the potential implications of these developments for Azerbaijan's economic stability, diversification strategy, and evolving geopolitical orientation. Beyond economic ties, the study also considers the consequences of the post-December 2024 escalation for security cooperation and humanitarian, scientific-technical, and cultural exchanges. The findings suggest that sustained political deterioration may gradually constrain bilateral economic interdependence, while simultaneously pushing Azerbaijan toward a cautious recalibration of its strategic alignments within an increasingly fragmented regional order. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Russia, Political Economy, Tourism, Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Non-Oil Exports, Finance, Logistic, Regional Integration, Political Relations, Security |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:337505 |