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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Strebel, Michael A. (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | Local governments in many countries struggle to find candidates for elected office. In the resulting uncontested elections, voters cannot choose between different candidates and hold local representatives accountable. Amalgamation might be a solution for this challenge to democracy since larger jurisdictions need fewer elected officials per voter. Combining data on all Swiss local government mergers in the 21st century with data on local executive elections, this article assesses whether amalgamation reforms indeed increase candidate supply and hence local electoral contestation. Staggered difference-in-differences regressions show that amalgamation increases the number of candidates/seat. The underlying mechanisms seem to go beyond a ``mechanical'' effect that results from a mere expansion of the candidate pool. This study, thus, provides first empirical evidence that local government amalgamation might contribute to mitigate a hidden supply side crisis of electoral democracy at the local level. |
| Date: | 2025–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cyrtm_v1 |
| By: | Jeremy Bowles; Horacio Larreguy; Shelley Liu; Ahmet Akbiyik |
| Abstract: | Political polarization is an increasing global concern. Although recent research suggests that media exposure can mitigate polarization through persuasion, it is unclear whether polarized individuals are willing to engage with diverse news sources, especially in electoral autocracies where citizens may distrust state-aligned media outlets or lack familiarity with credible alternatives. We implemented a field experiment in Türkiye exposing citizens to cross-partisan online media sources over seven months, which increased participants’ consumption of assigned outlets across the board. We find evidence of ideological moderation with important asymmetries. While assignment to pro-government media durably bolstered appraisals of the ruling party and increased vote intentions, assignment to anti-government media, while increasing affinity for opposition parties, had narrower and shorter-lasting impacts. Distinct logics explain these differences: while participants came to trust and learn more about anti-government outlets, the broader and more diverse coverage of pro-government outlets appears responsible for their persuasive impacts. Our findings highlight both the potential and limits of media exposure to shift political views in polarized electoral autocracies. |
| Keywords: | polarization, cross-partisan media, electoral autocracy |
| JEL: | C93 D72 D83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12260 |
| By: | Antoinette Baujard (Université Jean Monnet, Université Lyon 2, emlyon, GATE, CNRS, 42100, Saint-Etienne, France); Roberto Brunetti (Université Paris Panthéon-Assas, LEMMA); Isabelle Lebon (Normandie Univ., CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, Caen, France and TEPP-CNRS, Caen, France); Simone Marsilio (Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Germany) |
| Abstract: | If individuals are to be empowered in their selection or use of a voting rule, it is necessary that they understand it. This paper analyzes people’s understanding of two voting rules: evaluative voting and majority judgment. We first distinguish three components of understanding in this context: how to fill in the ballot; how votes are aggregated; and how to vote strategically. To measure each component, we draw on results from a lab experiment on incentivized voting where participants are exogenously assigned single-peaked preferences and answer comprehension questions on the rules employed. We find that most participants understand how to fill in the ballot with both voting rules. However, participants’ understanding of vote aggregation under majority judgment is lower and, crucially, more heterogeneous. While some participants correctly understand its aggregation property, a sizable group fails to grasp it. We also observe no difference in voting behavior between evaluative voting and majority judgment: the data confirm the theoretical prediction that under evaluative voting there will be a high incidence of strategic voting through the use of extreme grades, but contradict the prediction that under majority judgment voters will vote less strategically. Finally, we find that with majority judgment, the better voters understand how votes are aggregated, the more they vote strategically, hence resulting in inequality in voter agency. |
| Keywords: | voting rules; understanding; evaluative voting; majority judgment; agency; laboratory experiment |
| JEL: | A13 C92 D71 D72 O35 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2524 |
| By: | Maciel, Mateus; Zuchowski, David; Parente, Sara |
| Abstract: | The literature on same-sex marriage has primarily focused on the effects of legal recognition, overlooking the factors that influence marriage decisions among samesex couples. This study provides novel evidence on the role of political context by analyzing how the election of a homophobic leader affects these decisions. Using the case of Brazil, we examine the effect of revealed local support for the openly homophobic Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential elections on same-sex marriage dynamics. To estimate this effect, we apply a difference-indifferences approach with varying treatment intensity. The results show a significant increase in same-sex marriages in municipalities with higher support for Bolsonaro during the period between the election and the start of his mandate. These findings suggest that perceived threats of rights restrictions can play a critical role in shaping personal decisions among minority groups, even in the absence of legal changes. |
| Keywords: | homophobia, political threat, sexual minority, LGBT, same-sex marriages |
| JEL: | D10 D72 J12 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125926 |
| By: | Kim, Dongyoung; Kim, Young-Il; Rho, Haedong |
| Abstract: | This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on mental-health and life-satisfaction outcomes through a regression discontinuity design. Following the resolution of electoral uncertainty on election day, we find a sharp and persistent post-election decline in subjective well-being, concentrated among female, non-White, urban, and more-educated respondents. These findings reveal an expected-outcome shock, showing that political polarization itself, not electoral surprise, can act as a chronic psychological stressor. |
| Keywords: | Election, Subjective Well-Being, Mental Health, Life Satisfaction |
| JEL: | H00 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126661 |
| By: | Liangze Ke |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a novel proxy for political polarization, initially proposed by Caliskan et al., which estimates intergroup distances using computer vision. Analyzing 1, 400+ YouTube videos with advanced object detection, their study quantifies demographic and religious divides in Turkiye, a deeply polarized nation. Our findings reveal strong correlations between intergroup distances and electoral polarization, measured via entropy-based voting metrics weighted by religiosity and political inclination. Two key insights emerge: (1) Greater distances between religious and nonreligious individuals (NRP vs RP) heighten electoral entropy, underscoring sociocultural fragmentation. (2) Intragroup diversity among nonreligious individuals (NRP vs NRP) stabilizes polarization, aligning with Axelrod's cultural dissemination model. This research advances computational social science and economics by showing that physical distancing serves as a scalable proxy for polarization, complementing traditional economic indicators. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.03088 |
| By: | Matthias Doepke (LSE); Hanno Foerster (Boston College); Anne Hannusch (University of Bonn); Michèle Tertilt (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | During the first half of the twentieth century, many US states enacted laws re- stricting women’s labor market opportunities, including maximum hours restrictions, minimum wage laws, and night-shift bans. The era of so-called protective labor laws came to an end in the 1960s as a result of civil rights reforms. In this paper, we inves- tigate the political economy behind the rise and fall of these laws. We argue that the main driver behind protective labor laws was men’s desire to shield themselves from labor market competition. We spell out the mechanism through a politico-economic model in which singles and couples work in different sectors and vote on protective legislation. Restrictions are supported by single men and couples with male sole earners who compete with women for jobs. We show that the theory’s predictions for when protective legislation will be introduced are well supported by US state-level evidence. |
| Keywords: | labor laws, women, protection, political economy |
| JEL: | D13 D72 D78 E24 J12 J16 N30 O10 O43 |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1102 |
| By: | Hessami, Zohal; Häcker, Timo; Thomas, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether mayors’ prior occupation in the local public administration matters for their performance. In theory, mayors’ professional background may shape their competence in bureaucratic tasks. We use the example of grant receipts for visible investment projects for which mayors must submit an extensive application to the state government. Our dataset includes 1, 933 mayor elections (1993-2020) in the German state of Hesse to which we apply a sharp RD design for close mixed-background races. Mayors’ background on average has no effect on grant receipts. Yet, public administrator mayors do attract more grants than outsider mayors when they are ideologically aligned with the council, raising the motivation to apply for grants in the first place. We conclude that the competence of public administrator mayors only matters when they are motivated to use it, i.e. this is an example where incentives are necessary for the effects of political selection to materialize. |
| Keywords: | public administration; political selection; investment grants; administrative skills; professional background; mayors |
| JEL: | D73 D78 H71 H77 H83 |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130277 |
| By: | Koetter, Michael; Popov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Exploiting three decades of detailed regional data for Germany, we find that when the Green Party is successful at the polls, local hazardous emissions decline. The level of political representation matters, too. Green politicians’ gaining influence at county level is followed largely by a decline in air pollutants that have an immediate adverse health effect. In contrast, when the Green party joins the state government, only greenhouse gas emissions that affect the welfare of future generations via climate change decline. The primary mechanism to achieve lower emissions appears to be a reduction in output, rather than more efficient energy use. JEL Classification: D72, Q53 |
| Keywords: | elections, growth, hazardous emissions |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253155 |
| By: | Jonas Dovern; Klaus Wohlrabe |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the causal effects of the 2024 US presidential election on business expectations of German manufacturing firms. It exploits the variation in the timing of survey responses to identify shifts in expectations around the election. The probability of reporting negative expectations increases by 12 percentage points. The effect is driven by exporters, especially those exposed to the US economy. It is concentrated among firms that had not anticipated Trump’s re-election, indicating rational expectation updating. Firms reduce planned investment expenditures. The results provide novel evidence that firms are attentive and quickly revise expectations in response to salient policy events. |
| Keywords: | election, survey expectation, export exposure, US president, rational inattention |
| JEL: | D72 E32 E65 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12266 |
| By: | Niclas Boehmer; Lara Glessen; Jannik Peters |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive theoretical research on proportionality in approval-based multiwinner voting, its impact on which committees and candidates can be selected in practice remains poorly understood. We address this gap by (i) analyzing the computational complexity of several natural problems related to the behavior of proportionality axioms, and (ii) conducting an extensive experimental study on both real-world and synthetic elections. Our findings reveal substantial variation in the restrictiveness of proportionality across instances, including previously unobserved high levels of restrictiveness in some real-world cases. We also introduce and evaluate new measures for quantifying a candidate's importance for achieving proportional outcomes, which differ clearly from assessing candidate strength by approval score. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.09479 |
| By: | Aaron Günther; Niklas Potrafke; Emil Scholten |
| Abstract: | We examine fiscal policies and parliamentary activities of minority governments in the German states. Our sample includes the 16 German states over the period 1981-2024. The results show that minority governments implemented similar fiscal policies to majority governments. Minority governments had about 14 more parliamentary bills than majority governments, a result that is based on the activities of opposition parties and not of the minority governments. We conclude that minority governments have not performed worse than majority governments for a long time. We present case study evidence on minority governments in Thuringia and Saxony showing that a more fragmented party system makes it more difficult for minority governments to perform well and implement their policy goals. Future research should investigate in more detail the performance of minority governments in times of fragmented party systems. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_421 |