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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Belguise, Margot (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Far-right voting is stigmatized, yet rising worldwide. Do signals of the far-right’s popularity embolden voters to support it, even in the secrecy of the voting booth? I exploit quasiexperimental variation from the French two-round electoral system. When far-right candidates narrowly win round one—a purely symbolic victory—this brings them more votes in round two, held merely one week later. Evidence aligns with voters attending more to salient signals when they update beliefs about stigma strength. As predicted if voters attach greater weight to more salient signals, more unusual wins have larger effects. Leveraging a large corpus of newspaper articles I scraped, I show that these narrow wins attract media attention, which predicts the vote effect. Consistent with stigma erosion, this effect is specific to the far-right, larger where stigma is likely stronger, and persists in the next election. Using administrative records on campaign funding, I document similar patterns for campaign donations—acts of support that are less secret than votes and may therefore carry larger reputational costs. JEL Codes: P00 ; D72 ; D91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1587 |
| By: | Davide Cipullo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore & CESifo & CIFREL & Uppsala Centre for Fiscal Studies); Federico Franzoni (Universitat de Barcelona & CIFREL & IEB); Jonas Klarin (Centre for Business and Policy Research (SNS) & Uppsala Centre for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal effect of the term length of political executives on economic policy outcomes. To establish causality, we exploit the staggered adoption of four-year terms for governors across US states, using data for the period 1937–2008. We find that increasing governors’ tenure in office from two years to four years reduced state expenditures and revenues by approximately 0.3–0.5 percentage points of GDP. The effect on state finances is primarily driven by a reduction of current spending and grants from the federal government, and it is concentrated in states where the incumbent governor expects fierce competition in the next election. Lastly, we discuss the implications of longer terms for macroeconomic stabilization, political budget cycles, and intergovernamental resource allocation. |
| Keywords: | Term Length, US States Finance, Political selection, Electoral incentives, Political accountability |
| JEL: | D72 H11 H72 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-13 |
| By: | Dongyoung Kim; Young-Il Albert Kim; Haedong Aiden Rho |
| Abstract: | This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on mental-health and life-satisfaction outcomes through a regression discontinuity design. Following the resolution of electoral uncertainty on election day, we find a sharp and persistent post-election decline in subjective well-being, concentrated among female, non-White, urban, and more-educated respondents. These findings reveal an expected-outcome shock, showing that political polarization itself, not electoral surprise, can act as a chronic psychological stressor. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.04912 |
| By: | Francisco Pino; Laura Salisbury |
| Abstract: | Campaign tours have become an essential component of U.S. presidential elections. How and when did they begin? We explore the early history of in-person political campaigning in the United States by reconstructing the first presidential campaign tours from historical newspaper clippings. We analyze the decision to campaign, the determinants of where candidates campaigned, and the outcomes of early in-person campaigns. We document an evolving norm of campaigning. This norm evolved well after the expansion of the railroad network. While a national railroad network was a necessary precondition for campaigning to evolve, our findings point to other factors – such as growing urbanization and the decline of federal patronage machines – playing a more important role in the growth of campaigning. We find evidence that being visited on a campaign tour increased voter turnout in a county. However, we do not find a clear effect of campaign visits of a given candidate on his electoral performance. |
| JEL: | N0 P0 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34447 |
| By: | Atheendar Venkataramani; Rourke O'Brien; Elizabeth Bair; Christopher Lowenstein |
| Abstract: | We study the health consequences of redistributing political power through the 1975 extension of the Voting Rights Act, which eliminated barriers to voting for previously disenfranchised nonwhite populations. The intervention led to broad declines in under-five mortality but sharply contrasting effects in other age groups: mortality fell among non-white children, younger adults, and older women, yet rose among whites and older non-white men. These differences cannot be reconciled by changes in population composition or material conditions. Instead, we present evidence suggesting psychosocial stress and retaliatory responses arising from perceived status threat as key mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.26857 |
| By: | Pies, Ingo |
| Abstract: | Dieser Aufsatz analysiert die Eskalationsdynamik zwischen Populismus "von unten" und Anti-Populismus "von oben". Populisten beschimpfen Eliten im Namen des Volkes, wo- rauf Anti-Populisten mit Gegenbeschimpfung reagieren. Beide Bewegungen verstärken sich in einer toxischen Symbiose, die politische Auseinandersetzungen trivialisiert, tribalisiert und tribunalisiert. An die Stelle sachorientierter Interessenpolitik tritt identitätspolitische Lagerbildung, die Verständigungsprozesse blockiert und Systemvertrauen erodieren lässt. Wehrhaft wird Demokratie nicht durch Exklusion, sondern durch Revitalisierung prozeduraler Diskurskompetenz: durch zivilisierte Streitkultur, mündigen Medienkonsum, respektvollen Widerspruch und faire Diskussionsformate. Nur so lässt sich die Problemlösungsfähigkeit demokratischer Politik erhöhen und Reformstau überwinden. |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the escalation dynamic between populism "from below" and anti- populism "from above." Populists denounce elites in the name of the people, while antipopulists increasingly respond with counter-denunciations. Both movements reinforce one another in a toxic symbiosis that trivializes, tribalizes, and tribunalizes political debate. In place of interest-based politics emerges identity-driven polarization, which blocks processes of mutual understanding and erodes trust in institutions. Democracy becomes resilient not through exclusion, but through revitalizing procedural discourse competence: civil debate culture, mature media consumption, respectful dissent, and fair formats of discussion. Only then can democratic problem-solving capacity be strengthened and reform gridlock overcome. |
| Keywords: | Populismus, Anti-Populismus, wehrhafte Demokratie, affektive Polarisierung, Diskursversagen, Populism, anti-populism, self-protecting democracy, affective polarization, discourse failure |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:mlucee:330675 |
| By: | Daina CHIBA; Yoshikuni ONO |
| Abstract: | Research in advanced democracies documents the “first-daughter effect, †whereby fathers of firstborn daughters express more egalitarian views on gender roles. However, evidence from non-Western contexts remains scarce and inconclusive. This study examines whether the first-daughter effect holds in Japan, a country characterized by stable democratic institutions but enduring gender inequality. Using nationally representative survey data from 2000 to 2018 and quasi-random assignment of first child sex, we demonstrate that Japanese fathers with firstborn daughters exhibit significantly more gender-egalitarian attitudes. They also express greater support for gender equality policy reforms. These effects are confined to gender-related domains and do not extend to broader political ideology. Raising daughters can reshape core political attitudes, even within culturally conservative settings. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25104 |
| By: | Martin Nerlinger (University of St. Gallen - School of Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Martin Rohleder (University of Augsburg); Marco Wilkens (University of Augsburg); Jonas Zink |
| Abstract: | We examine what drives institutional engagement and voting on ESG-related shareholder proposals, using data from PRI and Morningstar. We find that personal engagement often substitutes for voting, especially among large fund families and those using meetings or site visits. Funds that vote more often or disclose less are less supportive of ESG proposals, while those filing proposals or outsourcing votes show more support. Collaborative engagement and longer PRI membership correlate with stronger ESG voting. Though engagement-active funds don't show major ESG performance gains, they increasingly support firms' ESG improvements, highlighting the role of active ownership in promoting sustainability. |
| Keywords: | active ownership, voting, engagement, disclosure, service providers |
| JEL: | G10 G23 M14 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2589 |
| By: | Daniel Montolio (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Guillem Riambau (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB) |
| Abstract: | We conduct an online survey across four countries of the European Union (Germany, Ireland, Poland, and Spain) to study how the socio-economic determinants of their citizens condition their ability to detect fake headlines and their likelihood of sharing them using social media. Additionally, we analyze the impact of attitudinal and ideological variables on the probability of detecting (and sharing) fake news. Results point to a significant role of some socio-economic and political variables in determining both the probability of detecting and sharing fake news on social media; results also show interesting country heterogeneity. Political headlines are more likely to be misclassified, which underscores the challenge of overcoming ideological biases in media consumption. We highlight the importance of fostering digital literacy, especially among young and more vulnerable individuals, to promote responsible democratic citizenship. |
| Keywords: | Fake News, Misinformation, Social Media, Survey, Attitudes |
| JEL: | D90 D91 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2025-11 |
| By: | Francisco Gomez-Martinez; Holger Herz |
| Abstract: | People seek positions of influence for material objectives, but it has been argued that people also seek power for its own sake. We propose a novel elicitation strategy that allows us to measure intrinsic preferences for power, where power is defined as influence over the outcomes of others, while fully controlling for all consequentialist sources of utility. We establish the existence of such preferences in general population samples in six countries, with substantial heterogeneity across individuals. Examining this heterogeneity, we show that our behavioral measure of intrinsic preferences for power is positively associated with favorable views of authoritarianism and higher social dominance orientation, and serves as a predictor of political attitudes. We also find significant correlations between intrinsic preferences for power and distributional preferences: Intrinsic preferences for power are predictive of a lower regard for equality. Our evidence thus suggests that the attitudes and preferences of individuals that are motivated by the exercise of power for its own sake differ in systematic ways from those that are not. |
| Keywords: | power, preferences, authoritarianism |
| JEL: | D01 D9 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12241 |
| By: | Bhusal, Thaneshwar; Breen, Michael G; Rao, Vijayendra |
| Abstract: | Nepal is, according to its constitution, among the world’s most decentralized countries, with a long and complex tradition of local-level public participation. This paper traces the evolution of Nepal’s modern participatory institutions, examining the extent to which they are “induced” by external interventions versus being “organically” rooted in indigenous practices. The paper identifies three broad phases: an initial focus on participation in project implementation; a subsequent phase that expanded citizen engagement; and a third phase of citizen empowerment, culminating in the 2015 federal constitution, which granted unprecedented local autonomy. The analysis yields five key findings. First, over the past 50 years, successive reforms have progressively expanded opportunities for citizens to influence local decision-making. Second, these reforms have integrated traditional participatory mechanisms into formal institutions of local government. Third, although central-level initiatives exist, most participatory platforms continue to operate at the local level. Fourth, the federal constitution has created a new landscape of local democracy, embedding autonomy and accountability. Fifth, although they are still valued in many ethnic and territorial communities, traditional participatory practices are gradually disappearing. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations to help donor agencies and governments strengthen Nepal’s democratic trajectory. It argues that effective interventions should build on Nepal’s deep participatory traditions while recognizing the constitutional reality of far-reaching local autonomy. |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11252 |