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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Thushyanthan Baskaran; Zohal Hessami; Alexander Sohl |
| Abstract: | Populist far-right politicians are increasingly successful across the globe. However, we know little about the personal characteristics of rank-and-file far-right politicians and what part of their success is due to these characteristics. We use hand-collected data on more than 41, 000 political candidates for local council elections in the German state of Saxony to study the characteristics and electoral outcomes of Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) politicians. We find that AfD candidates are new entrants to local politics rather than turncoats from other parties. AfD candidates also differ in observable characteristics from candidates of more established parties. However, "characteristics space" demand estimations show that AfD candidates' electoral success is due to voters' strong preference for the AfD "party brand". In fact, voters evaluate (the observed traits of) AfD candidates more negatively than most other parties' candidates. We decompose the party brand effect into distinct policy dimensions and identify the AfD's stance on refugees and gender issues as particularly salient to voters. |
| Keywords: | populism, political selection, local councils, demand estimation, BLP model |
| JEL: | H71 H72 R10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12199 |
| By: | Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna (University of Bath); Homburg, Ines (University of Antwerp); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of immigration on voting behaviour. Exploiting a unique natural experiment, we research parliamentary election results in Poland following the 2022 inflow of Ukrainian refugees. We exploit the variation in hosted refugees across Polish counties and utilise a shift-share instrument based on the past settlement of Ukrainian immigrants. We find increased support for far-right and right-wing (incumbent) political groups, at the expense of centre parties. There is important regional variation in this overall pattern. The more liberal areas in west Poland experienced political polarisation, with both far-right and left-wing parties gaining support. Furthermore, the rise in far-right support is particularly pronounced in rural counties, low wage counties, and those bordering Ukraine. The effects are driven by changing voter preferences, rather than election participation or natives’ internal mobility, and are not rooted in adverse economic effects. Our findings show that exposure to refugees, even those with a similar background and favourable profile, can still be associated with natives’ backlash. |
| Keywords: | election results, refugee exposure, forced migration, Russia-Ukraine war |
| JEL: | D72 D74 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18157 |
| By: | Schib, Tobias; Strebel, Michael A.; Stutzer, Alois |
| Abstract: | A functioning democracy relies on individuals motivated to take on political office. In recent decades, concerns have grown across Western democracies about increasing political alienation and a declining willingness among citizens to engage in politics. To systematically assess this phenomenon, we introduce the concept of latent political engagement defined as an underlying, non-specific motivation to take on the responsibilities of a political mandate, whether or not it ultimately results in an actual candidacy. To capture it, we propose four survey questions. We fielded them using a large-scale, nationally representative survey of Swiss citizens in 2023. We present descriptive evidence for differences across various socio-economic groups and contextual factors. In particular, we find that individuals who are deeply invested in their municipality – whether through homeownership (economic capital) or membership in local associations (social capital) – exhibit higher levels of latent political engagement. Moreover, municipality size emerges as a key predictor, with small jurisdictions being particularly conducive to fostering a willingness to take on political mandates. Additionally, we provide evidence of language-cultural differences, as native German-speaking individuals are substantially more likely than French speakers to have ever considered holding political office. |
| JEL: | D72 J45 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/03 |
| By: | P Carmel Marie Zagre |
| Abstract: | This article examines the political consequences of terrorism in Burkina Faso. Using a dataset combining geolocated terrorist events from ACLED (from 2015 to 2024) with public opinion data from Afrobarometer, I compare the effect of successful terrorist attacks on public support for democracy and authoritarian alternatives. The results reveal that successful terrorist attacks significantly increase support for military regimes, one man regimes, and one party systems, while decreasing support for democratic governance. These changes are most pronounced immediately after the attacks and persist over time. This suggests that terrorism has triggered a trade-off in public preferences between security and freedom. The study also reveals that terrorism erodes perceptions of key democratic values, particularly civil liberties and freedom of movement. Robustness tests confirm that weak institutions or a lack of political knowledge are not driving the results. The article highlights how terrorism in fragile democracies can undermine democratic resilience and accelerate authoritarian drift. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.23046 |
| By: | Gutmann, Jerg; Rode, Martin |
| Abstract: | Populist governance is fundamentally at odds with constitutionalism. As a political project, populism rejects constraints on "the will of the people, " including those essential to liberal-democratic constitutions. Yet, the extent to which elected populists actually undermine constitutional order remains contested. This article presents the first empirical analysis of whether constitutional compliance declines following the electoral success of populist parties in parliament and government. Using novel indicators of party populism and constitutional compliance, we find that the entry of populists into government leads to an erosion of constitutional norms, while their mere parliamentary presence has no systematic effect. This negative impact is primarily driven by a weakening of political and civil rights. Our results further show that populist parties-as distinct from individual leaders-are the primary drivers of noncompliance, and that the ideological orientation of these parties predicts the extent of their threat to constitutional order. |
| Keywords: | Populism, constitutional compliance, constitutionalism, political ideology, rule of law |
| JEL: | D72 D78 K38 K42 P16 P26 P37 P48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ilewps:86 |
| By: | Ferlenga, Francesco (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Kang, Stephanie (Market Development, ISO New England) |
| Abstract: | We study how expanding immigrants' rights affects their political and social integration by leveraging Romania's 2007 EU accession, which granted Romanian immigrants in Italy municipal voting and residency rights. Using municipality-level event studies, we find: (1) Enfranchisement increased the election of Romanian-born councilors - especially in competitive races - despite limited changes in candidacy rates. It also increased Romanian turnout, suggesting that electoral gains stem from an expanded voter base. An instrumented difference-in-differences analysis shows this is driven by pre-existing Romanian residents, not new arrivals. (2) Consent to organ donation rose among Romanians post-2007, indicating that the expansion of rights extends to prosocial behavior. (3) Nonetheless, immigrant presence continues to raise support for right-leaning parties and security spending while reducing social spending, highlighting persistent native backlash that outweighs immigrant political influence. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:775 |
| By: | Thomas Ferguson (University of Massachusetts, Boston) |
| Abstract: | Narratives in American history, politics, and economics — even those by the most accomplished researchers — often resemble donuts: at their core lies a hole that no amount of sweet speculation can truly fill. They say almost nothing about the financing behind even the most pivotal American political campaigns and elections. Both history and the social sciences suffer greatly when facts are missing and wild guesses take their place. INET's new data archive of historical political finance records at the National Archives marks a major step toward filling this factual void. It assembles all campaign finance reports filed by political parties and presidential candidates up to 1974, the year before the Federal Election Commission was established. A few additional files, including one from the FEC for 1976, are also included, as detailed below. This INET Working Paper outlines what users need to know to navigate the archive effectively and locate the data they require. The files themselves can be found here. |
| Keywords: | political finance, elections, regulation, state and business |
| JEL: | D72 K20 L13 L14 L38 L51 N12 N42 P14 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp242 |
| By: | José J. Bercoff (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán); Esteban Nicolini (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid/Universidad Nacional de Tucumán) |
| Abstract: | An ecological analysis of the general election in Argentina in 1946 suggests that the votes for Perón were higher in districts with high levels of social and economic development (relatively larger proportions literates and industrial employees and relatively higher wages), more affected by electoral fraud and with a smaller specialization in export-oriented activities. The ecological inference analysis strongly suggest that this characterization of districts is also a good characterization of the groups supporting Peron in the election: literates (rather than illiterates), industrial employees (rather than the rest of the population), urban dwellers (rather than rural dwellers) and migrants (rather than natives) had significantly higher probability of voting Perón. The support for Perón originated in a variety of motivations from different social groups that reacted against the traditional political model. |
| Keywords: | Economic voting; Perón presidential election; Ecological Inference |
| JEL: | N46 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:374 |
| By: | Kaplan, Lennart |
| Abstract: | The political economy literature highlights the redistribution of resources to political support groups - often along regional or ethnic lines - as an axiom of political systems. In contrast to this dominant pattern, Kasara (2007) documents a puzzling result of discriminatory rent extraction by political leaders from farmers in their ethnic home region. Linking a new database on the ethnic and regional affiliation of political leaders to fine-grained survey data, I disentangle ethnic and regional affiliations and show that their intersection explains the phenomenon which I will label in the following "reversed favoritism." More specifically, I provide evidence that agricultural price hikes indeed do not reduce poverty among co-ethnic farmers in the leader's birth region. My results indicate that leaders seem to act politically rational as they only apply this treatment in regions where they enjoy high trust. I show in an exploratory analysis that the counter-intuitive support of discriminatory policies can be explained by transfers in other areas, namely development aid. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy, Favoritism, Ethnicity, African Agriculture, Development Aid |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:328236 |
| By: | Liu, Kelly J.; Stutzer, Alois |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between zero-sum thinking, political views, and individual well-being in Switzerland. Zero-sum thinking refers to the belief that resources are finite, and that one person’s gain must come at the expense of another. Using survey data from over 11, 000 individuals, we document that this mindset seems to be widespread and cannot easily be traced to specific demographic groups in the population. It is rather prevalent across the political spectrum, but slightly more so towards the political left. Beyond their political orientation, individuals with a stronger zero-sum belief support capitalism less, believe less in the idea of trickle-down and meritocracy, and at the same time support the idea that inequality is too high in Switzerland, and that there should be more redistribution. Finally, we observe that these individuals report, on average, a lower level of life satisfaction, shedding light on the potential personal and social implications of this mindset. |
| Keywords: | Mindset, zero-sum, belief formation, political attitudes, life satisfaction |
| JEL: | D83 I31 P16 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/02 |
| By: | Xiangzhe Xu; Ran Wu |
| Abstract: | Government trust, as a core concept in political economy and public policy research, serves as a fundamental cornerstone of democratic legitimacy and state capacity. This paper examines how environmental conditions, particularly sunlight efficiency, influence reported government trust through both affective and cognitive mechanisms. Leveraging World Values Survey Wave 7 data merged with NASA POWER high-frequency weather data, we propose and validate a novel ``salience and attribution'' mechanism: clearer skies may paradoxically reduce government trust by heightening environmental awareness and triggering negative attributions. We further identify potential mediating pathways, including subjective well-being, political interest, political discussion, and health perception, and demonstrate that environmental conditions introduce measurement error in survey-based trust indicators. Our findings provide theoretical contributions to environmental psychology, behavioral political economy, and survey methodology, and yield practical implications for governance, policy design, and survey |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.23554 |
| By: | Tomic, Slobodan |
| Abstract: | AI systems are increasingly active agents in political discourse, shaping reputations, narratives, and public perceptions. This commentary examines three real-world cases from Serbia where AI chatbots—Grok and ChatGPT—asserted false claims, spreading false narratives about political collectives or regime-critical individuals. These incidents illustrate how, under the guise of technical neutrality, AI can reinforce dominant narratives, amplify disinformation, and undermine dissent. Drawing on a recently proposed framework for AI regulation (Tomić & Štimac, 2025), we show how failures across three dimensions—decision models, data sourcing, and interface semantics—create pathways for political manipulation and reputational harm. We conclude by reflecting on implications for political deliberation and calling for targeted regulatory and empirical responses. |
| Date: | 2025–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w6az2_v1 |
| By: | Verónica Amarante; Marisa Bucheli; Tatiana Pérez |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the link between the ideological profile of Uruguayan economists and their opinions regarding inequality and discrimination. Drawing on data from an online survey of Uruguayan economists, we explore the links between their economic opinions and three dimensions of ideology: political orientation, sexist attitudes (benevolent and hostile sexism), and pro-market views. Economists' opinions encompass diagnostic assessments of inequality and discrimination, as well as views on specific policies designed to address these issues. Using ordered probit models, we find that right-wing political ideology, hostile sexism, and pro-market attitudes are associated with a lower likelihood of agreeing that income distribution in Uruguay should be more equitable and that women face barriers to full-time employment. These ideological factors are also linked to a higher likelihood of believing that there are equal gender and race opportunities in Uruguay. Benevolent sexism exhibits a more mixed relationship with opinions on inequality and discrimination. Furthermore, we show that economists' diagnoses of inequality and discrimination mediate the relationship between ideological variables and their policy preferences. Our results point to the need for greater introspection within the discipline regarding the influence of personal values and beliefs on economic analysis and policy recommendations. Our findings challenge the notion of economics as a purely objective and unbiased discipline, revealing significant associations between ideological factors, economists' perceptions of inequality and discrimination, and their support for specific policies. |
| Keywords: | ideology, sexism, inequality, discrimination |
| JEL: | A13 D63 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ude:wpaper:0624 |
| By: | Douglas Cumming; Sofia Johan; Ikenna Uzuegbunam |
| Abstract: | We propose two opposing forces that impact the relation between electoral integrity and poverty. On the one hand, it is more costly to provide electoral integrity in states where there is more poverty due to transaction costs and opportunity costs. On the other hand, extreme levels of poverty attract media scrutiny and greater external monitoring of electoral integrity, giving rise to more demand for electoral integrity. Taken together, we expect electoral integrity to be a U-shaped function of poverty. We also hypothesize that electoral integrity will vary depending on the strength of state electoral laws. Expert-level survey data on electoral integrity from the 2016 U.S. Presidential election and the 2018 U.S. congressional election, in combination with U.S. state-level data on poverty are strongly consistent with these predictions. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.15343 |
| By: | Mohsen Javdani (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to growing calls for greater pluralism in economics by examining how gender shapes economists' normative and epistemological orientations. Drawing on original survey data from 2, 425 economists across 19 countries, we document systematic gender differences in views on a broad range of issues. Female economists are significantly more likely to support progressive equity-oriented positions, challenge mainstream assumptions, and endorse pluralistic approaches to inquiry. We also find stark gender differences in political ideology: women are far more likely than men to identify as left-leaning—particularly far-left—while men disproportionately align with centrist or right-leaning ideologies. These ideological divides account for some of the gender differences in views, underscoring the mediating role of political ideology. However, the influence of ideology itself varies by gender: moving rightward on the ideological spectrum reduces support for some progressive positions more sharply among men than women. This suggests that gendered experiences inform distinct interpretive frameworks that persist even within shared ideological categories. Taken together, our findings highlight that gender diversity in economics is not merely demographic but epistemic—and that realizing its transformative potential requires institutional environments that value and legitimize dissenting and underrepresented perspectives. |
| Keywords: | Gender Diversity, Economics Profession, Pluralistic Diversity, Political Ideology. |
| JEL: | A11 A13 B54 J16 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp238 |
| By: | Salvatore Barbaro (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany); Anna-Sophie Kurella (Leibniz University, Hannover, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Dichotomous preferences are a widely assumed feature in social choice theory. Despite their prominence in theoretical models, the empirical validity of this assumption has remained largely unexplored. Nor is it always clear how dichotomous preferences are defined across different research contexts. This paper introduces two new concepts that weaken the strict dichotomy assumption and can each be tested empirically. Using CSES data and three experimental datasets—two from French presidential elections and one from a regional election in Austria—we examine how frequently the different forms of dichotomous preferences occur. In addition, the paper provides evidence on the relationship between ranking and approval ballots. The results suggest that while dichotomous preferences do not offer a perfect representation of voter preferences, they constitute an acceptable approximation, particularly among voters who approve more than two alternatives and among respondents with higher educational attainment levels. |
| Keywords: | Preferences, Dichotomous Preferences, Inequality Measures, Cluster Analysis |
| JEL: | D71 |
| Date: | 2025–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2506 |
| By: | Jake Bradley; Junggie Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the heterogeneous distributional effects of trade liberalization. We develop a tractable heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model in which individuals differ by income, wealth, age, and employment status, while firms endogenously evolve in productivity following a stochastic process with fixed export costs. In the model, trade openness raises the return to labor and deepens the capital stock, lowering returns on assets. These shifts generate systematic differences in preferences over trade: workers whose income relies primarily on labor gain from openness, while retirees and asset-dependent households may lose. Using microdata from the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom, we document empirical patterns consistent with the model’s predictions: individuals with higher labor income shares were significantly less likely to support leaving the European Union. By linking micro-level heterogeneity to macro-level trade outcomes, the model offers a useful tool for evaluating the political economy and welfare consequences of globalization. |
| Keywords: | Trade gains; Heterogeneous agent; Perpetual youth; Life-cycle |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcfc:2025/02 |