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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Antonia Lopez Villavicencio; Hugo Oriola |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates Political Business Cycles during national elections across European Union countries and their subnational regions from 1995 to 2022, with a focus on the role of national and supranational fiscal rules. We find robust evidence that national elections are associated with increased regional public spending and reduced income and wealth tax rates. While strong fiscal rules tend to constrain or have limited effect on spending-related PBCs, they simultaneously incentivize tax-based fiscal manipulation, indicating a shift in electoral strategies from expenditure to taxation. This pattern holds across most European countries at both national and regional levels, with variations depending on specific electoral and political systems. We also show that right-wing incumbents engage in both public spending and tax-based opportunistic PBCs, while left-wing incumbents primarily focus on tax-based manipulations. Furthermore, newly elected left-wing incumbents pursue fiscal conservatism, whereas right-wing incumbents typically maintain the fiscal status quo. |
| Keywords: | Elections; Fiscal rules; Political business cycle; National and regional politics; European Union. |
| JEL: | D72 E62 H30 H71 H72 O52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-15 |
| By: | Bogatyrev, Konstantin; Abou-Chadi, Tarik; Klüver, Heike; Stoetzer, Lukas F.; Haas, Violeta I. |
| Abstract: | Do strategies of state-sponsored homophobia translate into electoral gains?While a growing body of literature documents the increasing politicization of LGBTQ- and gender-related issues by illiberal elites, little is known about the electoral effects of these strategies. We address this important question by studying whether anti-LGBTQ mobilization pays off electorally for the initiating party. Empirically, we study the adoption of anti-LGBTQ resolu-tions in many Polish municipalities prior to the 2019 parliamentary election. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences design, we find that these resolu-tions significantly depressed turnout in affected municipalities, with oppo-sition parties showing less mobilization capacity. By contrast, turnout for the incumbent Law and Justice Party increased substantially. Overall, this study’s findings are relevant for understanding the electoral consequences of both elite-led mobilization against stigmatized and discriminated groups, and policies of subnational democratic backsliding. |
| Keywords: | LGBTQ rights; sexuality and politics; political homophobia; political competition; political participation |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130436 |
| By: | Mathilde Maurel (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, CNRS); Thomas Pernet (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how using the internet and social networks as information souces affects individuals' understanding of democracy. Using data from the sixth round of the Afrobarometer survey (2014), which includes both open- and closed-ended questions on democracy, the study analyzes how online information influences political perceptions across African countries. Open-ended responses are structured using ChatGPT. The identification strategy exploits the interaction between lightning activity and 3G coverage, where lightning causes random internet disruptions, providing an exogenous source of variation. Findings reveal that reliance on Internet-based information negatively biases individuals' understanding of democracy, freedom of expression and institutional corruption, while positively biasing perceptions of electoral fairness. Given the strong link between democratic understanding and preferences for democracy, these biases may shape political attitudes. As internet use grows in Africa, its role in influencing political perspective becomes increasingly significant |
| Keywords: | Internet news; Democracy; Misunderstanding of Democracy; Africa |
| JEL: | G2 G32 L25 L6 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25005 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel framework for understanding democracy through quantum mechanics, treating democratic systems as wave-particle dual entities that evolve probabilistically. Using the Schrödinger equation, we model democracy's stability, transitions, and uncertainty, demonstrating that democratic governance exists in superpositions of states until institutional shifts collapse it into defined outcomes. Quantum tunneling explains unexpected political transitions, while the Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation (NLSE) captures self-reinforcing dynamics such as polarization, institutional inertia, and rogue political waves. Furthermore, we introduce quantum entanglement in democracy, showing that democracies are nonlocally linked–a shift in one influences another through institutional, economic, and ideological connections. However, external disruptions, or decoherence forces, can sever these ties, leading to independent political trajectories. This quantum-inspired model bridges physics and political science, providing a rigorous mathematical framework to analyze demo cratic resilience, instability, and global interdependence, offering new tools to predict and address emerging political risks in an interconnected world. |
| Date: | 2025–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:748 |
| By: | Nicolas Cerkez |
| Abstract: | Climate change and the erosion of democratic norms are two of the most pressing global challenges. This paper establishes a link between individuals’ support for democracy and extreme weather events, such as droughts, in the context of sub-Saharan Africa - a region highly vulnerable to climate change and where democratic norms are fragile. I analyze this relationship using Afrobarometer data on support for democracy from 2002 to 2015, covering 129, 002 individuals across 16 countries, combined with granular weather data from 1960 to 2015 at a 27km × 27km grid cell resolution. I find that exposure to drought reduces support for democracy by 2.56%, but that this effect is limited to individuals living in established democracies. I further explore how this weakening of democratic norms is linked to exposure to non-democratic governance systems, proxied by proximity to development projects funded by autocratic regimes. I find that the effect of droughts on support for democracy is significant only for individuals exposed to autocratic systems. Finally, I provide suggestive evidence that this reduction in support for democracy is associated with lower political engagement, as measured by participation in demonstrations. These findings highlight the political costs of climate change in developing countries. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 P16 P48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-03 |
| By: | Federico Fantechi (University of Palermo); Ugo Fratesi (Politecnico di Milano); Felipe Livert (Politecnico di Milano) |
| Abstract: | Is there electoral punishment for local politicians considered by their citizens to have performed poorly during emergencies? This is studied in the Italian case, where a law officially listing earthquake-affected municipalities also de-facto prevents those left-out from receiving major aid. Electoral results after the four major earthquakes affecting the country over the past three decades are analysed through a difference-in differences approach. Results indicate that mayors of municipalities severely affected by earthquakes and not getting financial support are electorally punished in the next election. The mechanisms are investigated alongside the influence of the local context. |
| Keywords: | Earthquakes; Electoral Accountability; Voter Turnout; Local Governance; Disaster Recovery; Mayors |
| JEL: | Q54 D72 R10 R51 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp60 |
| By: | Enrico Cavallotti (Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics); Italo Colantone (Bocconi University, Department of Social and Political Sciences, GREEN Research Centre, Baffi Research Centre, CESifo & Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Piero Stanig (Bocconi University, Department of Social and Political Sciences, GREEN Research Centre, & Dondena Research Centre); Francesco Vona (University of Milan, Department of Environmental Science and Policy & Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | We study how occupation-related material interest affects environmental voting. Specifically, material interest hinges on the greenness vs. brownness of individual occupational profiles. That is, on the extent to which individuals are expected to benefit vs. lose in a greener economy. We employ individual-level data from 14 western European countries, over 2010-2019. To measure the greenness and brownness of occupational profiles, for each individual we compute predicted greenness and brownness scores based on the predicted probabilities to be employed in each possible occupation. These probabilities are combined with occupation-specific greenness and brownness scores. Individuals characterized by higher predicted brownness are less likely to vote for Green parties and for parties with a more environmentalist agenda, while the opposite holds for individuals characterized by higher predicted greenness. Voting preferences of brown profiles tend to converge towards those of greener profiles in regions that are better placed to gain from the green transition. |
| Keywords: | green voting, material interests, green jobs, brown jobs, labour market effects of the green transition |
| JEL: | D72 Q52 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.09 |
| By: | Andreas Hefti; Peiyao Shen |
| Abstract: | Understanding disparities in contest success is central to explaining how competition shapes the distribution of rewards, influence, or market shares. We introduce the Proportional Play Equilibrium (PPE), a boundedly rational alternative to Nash Equilibrium (NE) grounded in the Illusion of Proportionality, and show that it results in more unequal outcomes by exaggerating the success chances of stronger contestants. Laboratory evidence strongly supports PPE’s predictions for success dispersion while rejecting those of NE. Our results highlight how equilibrium analysis under full rationality may mischaracterize the inequality-generating effects of competition, with further implications for understanding inequality in markets or political contests. |
| Keywords: | Illusion of proportionality, bounded rationality, contest success, market share and inequality, behavioral contest theory |
| JEL: | D01 D91 D72 C72 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:466 |
| By: | Jared Rubin (Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | This chapter presents a conceptual framework for understanding the interaction of religion, ideology, and politics. The framework’s key insights are: i) culture and ideology provide a shared mental framework for interpreting the world; ii) ideology is malleable, and it can be used to justify a wide set of empirical realities in a manner that is consistent with the prevailing mental framework; iii) religion is particularly adept at shaping this mental framework because it attempts to explain the unknown; iv) because co-religionists share a mental framework that depends on a (religious) interpretation of events, religions are particularly likely to be co-opted by individuals who gain a comparative advantage in religious interpretation; v) religious authorities are useful for legitimating political rule because of their comparative advantage in interpreting events as well as their platforms for creating common knowledge. The chapter concludes with several historical examples from various religions of the political and economic consequences of religious legitimation of political rule. |
| Keywords: | religion, culture, ideology, politics, political legitimacy |
| JEL: | P48 P50 Z12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:25-02 |
| By: | Marco Pecoraro; Bruno Lanz; Didier Ruedin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the short- to long-term effects of large-scale refugee inflows on labour markets and anti-asylum attitudes. Using the exogenous arrival of Yugoslav refugees to Switzerland in the 1990s and municipal-level data with an instrumental variables strategy, we find that refugee exposure increased unemployment and anti-asylum voting in the short term. Over a decade later, the refugee shock is no longer correlated with unemployment, whereas anti-asylum attitudes not only decline but reverse in areas with higher initial exposure, notably in rural municipalities. These results highlight the temporary nature of labour market disruptions and the longer-term shift in anti-asylum attitudes consistent with contact theory. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Forced Migration, Unemployment, Labour Market Effects, Anti-Asylum Attitudes, Voting Behaviour, Contact Theory |
| JEL: | J61 J68 D72 F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:25-03 |